私募排排网数据显示，截至9月29日，林园投资旗下有业绩显示的19只产品，近一年收益为正的仅有9 只，10只产品为负收益。其中收益表现最好的"林园218号"产品近一年收益为31.14%，未能跑赢沪深300 同期的42.14%，近半年收益为9.97%，大幅跑输沪深300的16.23%。 跑输沪深300 截至9月29日，沪深300年内累计涨幅为17.4%，林园旗下19只产品均未跑过同期沪深300，其中6只产品 年内亏损。 近期以"小登股"为代表的AI、算力、半导体、机器人、通信等热门板块领涨，而"老登股"白酒、地产、 煤炭等板块表现平平。其背后反映的是这轮行情的极致分化——科技成为目前市场最受青睐的方向。 在此轮结构性牛市行情下，百亿私募业绩也出现显著分化。私募"大佬"林园旗下多只产品收益未能跑赢 沪深300指数，部分产品甚至录得亏损。 百亿私募阵营洗牌，主观私募"掉队" 林园投资的业绩困境并非个例，从策略维度看，今年以来量化私募业绩碾压主观多头。据私募排排网统 计，2025年1至7月，16家百亿主观私募平均收益13.59%，其中，15家实现盈利，仅9家收益超10%。36 家百亿量化私募不仅全部实现盈利，平均收益更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anxiety among investors in undervalued, high-dividend stocks due to continuous declines in stock prices, leading to doubts about the companies' fundamentals. This situation is contrasted with the rising technology stocks, indicating a significant capital migration towards tech, driven by macro narratives and profit effects, rendering individual fundamentals less relevant [3][4]. Group 1: Painful Roots - Investors adhering to traditional value investing are experiencing extreme discomfort as they watch AI and tech stocks soar while their stable, cash-flowing holdings underperform and even decline [4]. - The contrasting performance between tech stocks and traditional value stocks leads to feelings of loss and self-doubt among investors [4]. Group 2: Cognitive Stratification - The article outlines four cognitive levels of investors regarding market trends: 1. Those who cannot see the trend and remain immersed in value investing, potentially missing out on tech gains [8]. 2. Those who see the trend but are unwilling to act due to risk aversion or fear of high valuations, leading to missed opportunities [8]. 3. Early adopters who embrace the tech narrative and participate in the trend, becoming winners [8]. 4. Latecomers who, driven by fear of missing out, buy into tech stocks at high prices, often at the end of a rally [8]. Group 3: Key Decisions - The most dangerous strategy in the current market is hesitation, which can lead to poor investment choices [9]. - Investors must either embrace the trend early or choose not to participate based on their risk assessments, maintaining a calm mindset [10]. - Late adopters risk buying into a market that has already peaked, becoming the last buyers in a narrative that is losing momentum [11]. Group 4: Conclusion - The article emphasizes the importance of staying within one's cognitive circle and making clear investment choices, whether embracing trends or sticking to value investing [12][14]. - Investors should accept the potential for missing out on opportunities due to their cognitive boundaries while focusing on strategies that align with their understanding of the market [15].

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the title of "stock price king" in the A-share market is intensifying, with Cambrian Technologies nearing a historical high, challenging the dominance of Kweichow Moutai, reflecting a shift towards technology-driven industries in China's capital market [1][2]. Group 1: Cambrian Technologies - Cambrian Technologies' stock surged due to three main drivers: the rapid growth in demand for domestic AI chips, a shift in pricing logic favoring expected premium over traditional value, and the release of policy dividends supporting core technology independence [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the AI computing wave, holding 1,556 patents and projecting a 42-fold revenue increase by Q1 2025, with orders visible until 2026 [2]. - Cambrian's rise signifies a broader market trend favoring hard technology as a representation of future productivity and international competitiveness [2]. Group 2: Kweichow Moutai - Kweichow Moutai's brand value is estimated at 6,626 billion yuan, with a strong pricing power and a gross margin exceeding 90%, reflecting its deep brand moat and stable cash flow [3]. - The challenge for Moutai is not just from Cambrian but from generational shifts in consumer preferences, necessitating a transformation from a traditional brand to a contemporary lifestyle brand [3]. - Moutai is adapting by launching new products aimed at younger consumers and enhancing its digital presence, which includes a user base of over 50 million on its app [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The competition between Cambrian and Moutai illustrates a dynamic coexistence of stability and innovation, with both companies representing different aspects of the market: certainty and possibility [4]. - The ongoing "king of stock price" battle is expected to drive resources towards more efficient and future-oriented sectors, emphasizing the need for Moutai to continue evolving rather than merely defending its position [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese asset management industry is shaped by its unique environment, which differs significantly from global markets dominated by Wall Street giants. Local players must adapt to external forces and regulatory frameworks that limit their autonomy [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Characteristics - The Chinese A-share market operates with minimal influence from Wall Street, leading to a distinct operational environment for local asset managers [3]. - The asset management industry is characterized by a duality of local players and international giants, with the former often feeling powerless against external forces [2][4]. - Fund managers in China are heavily reliant on state licenses and bear a special responsibility to the public, distinguishing them from typical local capital players [5][6]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Fund Managers - Fund managers experience significant pressure due to short evaluation cycles from investors, leading to stress and performance-related issues [12][14]. - There is a tendency among fund managers to suffer from "information bias," where they may not adequately process diverse information, impacting their decision-making [16][18]. - The lack of long-term career paths in the industry can lead to a deficiency in ambition and vision among fund managers, as they may focus solely on short-term performance metrics [20][22]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The A-share market is inefficient as a feedback system, where similar research outcomes can yield vastly different returns based on market conditions [7][9]. - The current investment landscape is undergoing significant changes, with traditional valuation methods being challenged by alternative investment strategies [24][25]. - The market's price formation is influenced by a multitude of factors, making it essential for investors to adopt a multi-dimensional perspective [26][27]. Group 4: Evolution of the Industry - The Chinese public fund industry has evolved since its inception in 1998, with significant contributions from the 70s generation of fund managers who navigated early challenges [38][39]. - The transition from older to younger generations of fund managers reflects a shift in knowledge and adaptability, with younger managers often possessing better conditions but facing different challenges [40][41]. - The industry must balance the wisdom of experience with the innovative approaches of younger professionals to remain competitive [42][43].