地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 9 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 1 月 9 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，钯涨超 6%，低硫燃 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 7 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 1 月 7 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，沪镍、焦煤、焦炭、不 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：中长期涨势不改 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 7 日 期货方面：沪铜日内高开高走，尾盘收涨。 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水-60 元/吨，华南现货升贴水-10 元/吨。2026 年 1 月 6 日，LME 官方价 13225 美元/吨，现货升贴水+44.5 美元/吨。 -500 -300 -100 100 300 500 700 900 华东阴极铜升贴水（元/吨） 2023 2024 2025 2026 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 华南阴极铜升贴水（元/吨） 2023 2024 2025 2026 【行情分析】 今日上涨速度放缓，日内高开高走，尾盘收涨。1 月 2 日，加拿大铜矿商 Capstone Copper 宣布，其智利曼托维德铜金矿场当日开始罢工，期间将逐步缩减运营，预计产量 骤降七成。进入 2026 年后铜冶炼厂无法通过长协订单获得利润，同时现货市场维持弱 稳，后续不减产的情况下，硫酸及金等副产品成为主要盈利点。12 月 SMM 中国电解铜产 量环比增加 7.5 万吨，升幅为 6.8%，同比上升 7.54%。1-12 月累计产量同比增加 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 01 月 06 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 醇、苹果涨超 3%，硅铁、双胶纸、沪锌、铝合金、菜籽涨超 2%。跌幅方面，胶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous entry of five major international investment banks into the shareholder list of a small-cap A-share company, valued at approximately 6 billion yuan, highlights its status as a rare "gold and chip" dual-concept stock heavily favored by foreign capital [1][36]. Group 1: Shareholder Activity - Goldman Sachs has become the third-largest circulating shareholder with 4.27 million shares, while UBS increased its holdings to 2.54 million shares, Morgan Stanley raised its stake to 1.4 million shares, J.P. Morgan entered with 1.29 million shares, and Barclays retained 0.88 million shares despite a slight reduction [2][3]. - The company is uniquely positioned in three main business areas: gold mining and sales, solar power generation, and integrated circuit design, with gold operations accounting for 89% of revenue and contributing over 90% of profits [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's gold mining operations benefit from rising international gold prices, which reached a historical high of over $4,000 per ounce by the end of September 2025 [4]. - The company has experienced significant revenue fluctuations over the past decade, with annual revenues oscillating between 200 million to 300 million yuan, but has maintained a relatively stable cash flow [6][7]. Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Rationale - The collective investment by foreign institutions may be driven by multiple factors, including the appeal of gold as a traditional safe-haven asset during a rate-cutting cycle, and the significant operational leverage in the metals industry [9]. - The company's chip design business adds a technological aspect, coinciding with a "super cycle" in the global memory chip industry, where DRAM prices surged by approximately 72% in less than six months [10]. Group 4: Broader Market Context - Recent foreign investments in the A-share market indicate a growing interest in resource-related assets, with significant movements in the small metals sector driven by structural supply-demand changes [11][12]. - The semiconductor sector has also attracted foreign capital, with major firms like Morgan Stanley and UBS increasing their stakes in various A-share semiconductor companies [14][15]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company's gold reserves provide a resource safety net, while its chip business offers growth potential, making it an attractive investment in the current market environment [18]. - The simultaneous entry of five foreign institutions suggests a recognition of the unique value of the company's dual attributes in the current market context [19][27].

Core Insights - The phenomenon of new stocks experiencing significant price surges on their debut is not coincidental, driven by market mechanisms and investor behavior [3][5] - The disparity in outcomes for investors, particularly between those who hold shares and those who buy at inflated prices, highlights the risks associated with new stock investments [1][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - New stocks on the North Exchange can see extreme price fluctuations, with one stock rising by 1211% on its first day before plummeting by 64% over the next two days [1] - The T+1 trading system prevents first-day buyers from selling immediately, creating a temporary "one-sided market" where early investors hold onto shares due to low acquisition costs [3] - High turnover rates on debut days, such as 84% for certain stocks, indicate rapid selling by early investors, transferring shares to retail investors who may not be prepared for volatility [3][5] Group 2: Investor Behavior - A staggering 99.7% of new stock purchases on debut days are made by individual accounts, with 94.7% of these investors ultimately incurring losses [9] - Behavioral finance concepts, such as the anchoring effect, lead retail investors to misjudge the potential for further gains based on initial price surges, ignoring critical indicators like high turnover rates [9] Group 3: Valuation and Performance - Many new stocks exhibit a significant disconnect between high valuations and actual performance, with some companies showing drastic declines in profit margins and net income [6][8] - For instance, a semiconductor company with over 2 billion yuan in cumulative losses is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 100, far above the industry average of 40 [8] - The average first-day return for new stocks since late September 2025 has been 727%, but the average pullback within five days is 40%, indicating a pattern of initial hype followed by sharp corrections [3] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The introduction of a registration system aims to enhance oversight of speculative trading practices, yet the market continues to see repeated cycles of rapid price increases followed by steep declines [11] - Regulatory efforts to curb "herding behavior" in pricing have been implemented, but the underlying speculative dynamics remain prevalent, as evidenced by repeated instances of new stocks experiencing extreme volatility [11]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of a newly listed company, which is labeled as a "technology concept" stock, experienced a significant drop from 99 to 73 within six days of its listing, leading to a loss of 32% for investors who bought in at higher prices. The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio reached 130, far exceeding the industry average of 70, indicating a potential bubble in its valuation [1][3][4]. Group 1 - The stock price surged by 462% on its first day, closing with a 397.6% increase, but investors who chased the high were already down 15% by the end of the day due to high trading volume and turnover rate [2][3]. - The stock's price fluctuated significantly in the following days, with a notable drop of 6.76% on the third day and a brief 12% rebound on the fourth day, before closing at 81 on the fifth day, indicating manipulation by major shareholders [3][4]. - The current stock price of 73 is higher than that of industry leaders, with a P/E ratio of 130, which raises concerns about the sustainability of its valuation given the lack of proven earnings [3][6]. Group 2 - The phenomenon of "炒新" (speculation on new stocks) in the A-share market often leads to high volatility, with a 70% probability of decline in stocks that have a turnover rate exceeding 80% on their first day [4][6]. - Retail investors tend to fall for the allure of "concept stocks," driven by greed and a lack of understanding of fundamental analysis, which can lead to significant losses [6]. - The company operates in the circuit board sector, which has low technical barriers and intense competition, questioning the justification for its inflated P/E ratio compared to more stable companies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Chaoying Electronics, a so-called "technology concept stock," experienced a significant drop shortly after its IPO, falling from 99 yuan to 73 yuan, representing a loss of 32% in just a few days [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock surged 397% on its first day of trading, reaching an intraday high of 462%, but closed with many investors trapped at high prices due to a turnover rate of 84% [1]. - After a brief 12% rebound the following day, the stock quickly declined again, indicating volatility and manipulation by major shareholders [1]. - The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 130, significantly higher than the industry average of 70, suggesting overvaluation [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - The overall market is trending downward, making it difficult for this stock to perform well independently; the current price of 73 yuan is still considered high, with a high probability of further declines [2]. - The article emphasizes that investing based solely on concepts without considering valuation is risky, equating high P/E ratios and turnover rates with increased risk [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge and subsequent crash of a circuit board company highlights the risks associated with speculative trading in the tech sector, where inflated valuations and market manipulation are prevalent [1][4]. Group 1: Market Behavior - The first day of trading for new stocks has no price limit, which has been exploited by major players to manipulate prices, leading to significant losses for retail investors [3][4]. - The case of Taihong Wanli illustrates a pattern where the stock surged 359% on the first day, only to drop significantly in the following days, indicating a strategy of "pump and dump" by major players [3][4]. Group 2: Valuation Concerns - The circuit board company in question has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 130, which is nearly double the industry average of 70, raising concerns about overvaluation [4]. - Historical comparisons show that similar companies, like Haiyang Technology, experienced drastic valuation changes, with P/E ratios soaring from 12.69 to 54, despite declining profit margins [4]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Retail investors often fall into the trap of believing in a rebound to their cost price, leading to further losses as major players continue to suppress stock prices [6][8]. - The phenomenon of "psychological anchors" is evident, where retail investors are misled by false signals of support created by major players, resulting in a cycle of buying into falling stocks [5][6]. Group 4: Trading Dynamics - High turnover rates in newly listed stocks indicate a loose holding structure, which can lead to significant selling pressure once lock-up periods expire [8]. - The manipulation of trading data, such as showing net inflows while actually selling off shares, is a tactic used by major players to mislead retail investors [6][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Near the holiday, there are signs of capital withdrawal, with a significant contraction in the trading volume of the two markets today. Technology concepts led the decline, while the dividend index rose. To cope with holiday uncertainties in the short term, risk aversion has increased. Although the stock market fluctuated frequently this week, as previously mentioned, the central point did not change much, showing a pre - holiday stable transition and wide - range shock market. There are only two trading days next week. If there are no unexpected factors, the stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Domestic PMI data will be released, and attention should be paid to its changes. If capital flow intensifies before the holiday, it may increase the stock market's amplitude. It is recommended to gradually lighten the position and buy the straddle option strategy next week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index declined overall today. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed down 0.95%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 224.05 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will launch a RMB business capital arrangement from October 9 this year, replacing the existing RMB trade financing liquidity arrangement, and implementing multiple optimization measures and expanding eligible capital uses. - Seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)". - Trump announced that starting from October 1, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs [3]. Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.04 | -0.47 | -1.47 | -1.39 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 12.1085 | 4.8226 | 13.6035 | 24.299 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -1.2397 | -0.3587 | 0.637 | 3.0154 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.9924 | 9.5988 | 25.2224 | 36.4864 | | Open interest change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -0.6449 | 0.1041 | 0.3365 | 1.1537 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.65 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.76 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.53 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 21468.85 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (100 million yuan) | -2242.05 | [6]