来源：好买财富 最近一年，全球央行上演了一场史无前例的"宽松盛宴"。 2024年9月份以来，美联储连续三次降息，累计达100基点；欧洲央行连续七次降息，政策利率从4.25% 降至2.15%。 然而，经历了持续的大放水后，主要央行的政策开始出现了不同的走向。近期美联储大概率重启降息周 期，哪些资产更值得我们关注呢？ 央行的不同选择：谁在放水？谁在观望？ 2024年9月，美联储开启新一轮降息周期，但今年以来，由于美国就业市场火热且关税政策可能推升通 胀，美联储暂停降息选择观望。不过最近，由于就业市场出现转弱信号，且通胀数据较为平稳，美联储 或重启降息，宽松步伐也或更加坚定。 1、美联储：降息节奏鲜明，宽松步伐坚定 从2024年9月首次宣布降息50个基点开始，美联储近一年内连续降息三次，累计降幅达到100个基点，是 这轮全球宽松潮中的重要力量。 在杰克逊·霍尔会议上鲍威尔转鸽，加上近期持续偏弱的非农就业数据显示，美国经济仍处于持续放缓 的通道，"先降息再观察"成了当前美联储的合理选择。 可以看出，全球主要央行正根据本国经济状况走出不同的政策道路。而这背后，是由通胀压力、经济增 长以及政府债务等因素共同推动的。 2、 ...

Group 1 - The bond market in 2025 is characterized by a wide fluctuation, with the 10-year government bond yield ranging between 1.60% and 1.90%, indicating a 30 basis points (BP) fluctuation [1] - The current yield of the 10-year government bond is at 1.72%, which is in the middle of this year's fluctuation range [1] - The bond market is expected to maintain a slow bull or oscillating bull trend due to weak demand in the context of China's economic transformation [2] Group 2 - Geopolitical conflicts overseas have influenced market risk preferences, which may adjust as the equity market enters a slow bull phase [2] - The "anti-involution" trading that began in early July has led to rising commodity prices, potentially contradicting the previous weak inflation trend and causing market adjustments [2] - The market is currently experiencing a slight rebound amid a narrow fluctuation, driven by short-term increases in risk preference and discussions around the "weak inflation" narrative from the past few years [3] Group 3 - The 10-year government bond is viewed positively due to its lower volatility compared to 30-year assets and higher absolute returns compared to shorter-term assets [3] - In a low-interest-rate environment, it is advisable to pursue assets with relatively high certainty and smaller tolerable fluctuations, which the 10-year government bond fits [3] - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) offers advantages such as transparent holdings, T+0 trading, and pledge repurchase, making it an attractive option for investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen significant inflows from insurance funds, with a total trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan for seven consecutive trading days, and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high of 3787.98 points, contributing to a total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan [2][4]. Group 1: Insurance Fund Inflows - In the first half of 2025, insurance funds added over 640 billion yuan to the stock market, significantly higher than previous years, marking a historical high [3][4]. - The stock investment balance of insurance funds reached 3.07 trillion yuan, accounting for 8.47% of total assets, the highest since 2022 [3][4]. - The inflow of insurance funds has provided substantial support for the recovery of the A-share market, with a net inflow of 390 billion yuan in Q1 and 250 billion yuan in Q2 [4][12]. Group 2: Investment Trends and Preferences - Insurance funds have been actively participating in a "shareholding wave," with 30 instances of shareholding increases recorded in 2025, second only to 62 instances in 2015 [2][8]. - The focus of insurance funds has shifted towards high-dividend sectors, particularly in the banking industry, with 12 instances of shareholding increases in banks and a notable interest in Hong Kong-listed banks [9][10]. - The investment preferences of insurance funds are reflected in their significant holdings in over 220 stocks, with new purchases in 70 stocks and increased holdings in 58 stocks, primarily in sectors like pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and telecommunications [11][12]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Environment - Recent regulatory changes have encouraged insurance funds to increase equity investments, with adjustments to risk factors for equity assets and a push for long-term capital market participation [15][16]. - The insurance industry is facing pressure to meet return requirements due to low interest rates on traditional fixed-income assets, leading to a greater allocation towards equity investments [12][16]. - The average duration mismatch between insurance liabilities and assets has prompted a shift towards equities, as traditional investments fail to meet yield expectations [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - In the current macroeconomic and market environment, fund managers must maintain objective and calm judgment amidst market noise and emotional turbulence, focusing on logical decision-making and client needs [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment framework for fixed income must transition from a coarse approach to a more refined management style due to the ongoing low interest rate environment and scarcity of quality assets [5]. - The investment framework is summarized as "three bowls of noodles": macro fundamentals, market policy, and micro sentiment [5]. - The era of making significant profits from just a few major market movements is over; higher frequency tracking and precise judgment are now essential for generating excess returns [5]. Group 2: Client Orientation - Understanding client needs is crucial; while relative performance is important, absolute returns remain the core demand from clients [7]. - A multi-strategy framework is adopted in investment portfolios, aiming to achieve both relative and absolute return goals [8]. - Liquidity management and drawdown control should align with product positioning and the risk tolerance of the liability side [8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall direction of the bond market remains positive, supported by a loose monetary policy and the need for economic transformation towards high-quality development [10]. - Investment opportunities in pure bond investments, such as credit bonds, interest rate bonds, and local government bonds, are expected to remain favorable [10]. - Convertible bonds are highlighted as a noteworthy investment, combining fixed income characteristics with potential equity appreciation [10].