宏观周报（2025/7/28-8/1） 要点摘要 【上周焦点】 【宏观经济概览】 【本周重点关注】 2025 年 8 月 4 日 宏观周报 主要股市指数一年表现 国信证券(香港)·宏观周报 主要商品指数一年表现 黄金近一年表现 数据日期：2025 年 8 月 1 日 资料来源：万得，国信证券（香港）财富研 究部整理 曾伟杰 SFC CE No.: BUH477 +852 2899 8300 javezeng@guosen.com.cn 主要利率一年表现 主要汇率一年表现 注：以上数据均来官方披露、公司资料，国信证券（香港）研究部整理，请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及其项下所有内容。 美国：8月1日前美国与欧盟、韩国等国达成关税协议，并 向剩余未达成协定的经济体签发关税行政命令，具体税率 从10%至41%不等；市场聚焦二季度企业财报，Meta、微 软、eBay等公司业绩强劲；但美联储对降息仍谨慎，7月F OMC会议维持基准利率不变，叠加本周陆续公布的GDP、 通胀及就业数据喜忧参半，投资者情绪较上周回落，避险 情绪升温，美股进一步上冲后乏力，周五三大指数下跌抹 去本周涨幅。降息预期一度延后但经济数据恶化又引发市 ...

Group 1: US Market Signals - The Dow Jones has experienced six consecutive days of gains, but underlying issues such as Microchip's poor performance indicate a valuation crisis in tech stocks, with server inventory turnover days rising to 92 days and a significant 18% reduction in orders due to delayed customer pickups [2] - Consumer confidence index has fallen below pandemic lows, with median disposable income decreasing by 4.2%, raising concerns that this data is more alarming than the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes [2] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - Kweichow Moutai reported contrasting results, with the price of its flagship product falling below 2500 yuan, while its series of wines achieved over 10 billion yuan in quarterly revenue, indicating a trend of high-end consumption downgrade and the emergence of the light luxury market as a new opportunity [3] - Vanke's impressive repayment rate of over 100% is misleading, as it relies heavily on asset disposals, having sold over 20 billion yuan in commercial real estate in three months, a common survival strategy among real estate companies [3] Group 3: Energy Sector Developments - The Three Gorges Group's Yangjiang project has successfully connected to the grid, becoming the world's first offshore photovoltaic power station in a typhoon zone, exceeding expected output by 15% under 12-level wind conditions, creating a market space of 240 billion yuan [4] - Beneficiaries of this technological breakthrough are not the component manufacturers but rather the corrosion-resistant support structures and flexible cables, with orders for the latter extending to 2026 [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Position management suggests reducing total holdings to 50%, with 20% allocated to Changjiang Electric (4.3% dividend yield and dual drivers from flood control and power generation) and China Shenhua (lowest pithead coal cost in the industry) [5] - Identifying undervalued opportunities includes semiconductor equipment leader AMEC, which secured a major order of 12 etching machines from Yangtze Memory Technologies, and SMIC, which is trading at a 32% discount on Hong Kong stocks [5] - A hedging strategy includes a 3% allocation to a gold ETF (Shandong Gold trading at a 38% discount in Hong Kong compared to A-shares) and a 2% allocation to a dollar-denominated money market fund [5] Group 5: Key Observations for May - The MLF operation on May 15 could lead to a valuation recovery in the consumer sector if interest rates are cut by more than 10 basis points [6] - The LPR quote on May 20, particularly a reduction in the 5-year rate, is expected to stimulate the home appliance and building materials sectors [6] - The Federal Reserve's minutes on May 23 will be closely monitored for indications of a "slower balance sheet reduction," which may present buying opportunities in tech stocks [6]

Dear investors and analysts, good afternoon. Welcome to the 2024 National Taiwan Security International Annual Performance Conference. This conference will be live-streamed on the Internet via video and telephone, and will be live-streamed on the official website of the company, LuYanZhong, DongFangCaiFu, Futu Enterprises, TongFaShun, LaoHu, Wande and other platforms. Next, I would like to introduce the management team that will attend this conference. They are Dr. Yanfeng, Executive Director, Chairman of S ...