2. 政策利好叠加公司主动调整，其他品类有望改善。 3. 原奶价格低位运行，26Q1仍有望受益成本红利。 山姆渠道低温新品实现热销，预计贡献收入增量。2025年乳制品行业需求整体承压，而公司在前三季度已实现逆势增长，其中低温品类是增长的核心引 擎。低温品类，1）公司品牌，活润积极推新、唯品与会员店渠道紧密合作，实现较好增长。近期公司在山姆渠道再次取得亮眼表现，25Q3上市的新品朝 日唯品"焦糖烧生牛乳布丁"月销快速提升，当前位列山姆"下午茶热榜TOP"。2）渠道品牌，公司亦进入盒马供应链体系，为多款盒马自有品牌代工，与 新渠道的合作有望推动收入增长。 政策利好叠加公司主动调整，其他品类有望改善。1）常温品类，2025年三季度受到行业环境、消费习惯以及渠道结构等多方面影响，增长有所承压。公 司主动对常温占比较高的子公司进行调整，其中夏进在区域结构、渠道结构、产品结构多维度实现提升，预计公司常温业务有所改善。2）奶粉品类，政 策层面，2025年12月国家医保局在全国医疗保障工作会议提出，力争2026年全国基本实现政策范围内分娩个人"无自付"；伴随政策持续加码生育支持，有 望促进奶粉消费。 原奶价格低位运行，26Q ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 23.52 RMB, corresponding to a 24x PE for 2026 [8]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in the low-temperature dairy sector with a nationwide layout, focusing on product innovation, channel expansion, milk source distribution, cold chain construction, and regional brand strength. The report is optimistic about the company's continuous focus on low-temperature dairy products and its proactive approach to developing new products that align with market tastes, penetrating lower-tier markets, and embracing emerging channels like Sam's Club [1][17]. Industry Overview - The low-temperature milk industry in China is accelerating its penetration, with a market size projected to reach 41.8 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 1.4% from 2022 to 2024. The penetration rate of low-temperature milk in the liquid milk sector is expected to rise to 12.1% [2][18]. - The competitive landscape is relatively fragmented, with major players like Yili and Mengniu holding a combined market share of 28% and 36% in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, respectively, which is lower than their shares in the ambient milk sector [2][18]. Company Strategy - The company has upgraded its "Three Fresh" strategy, focusing on the dual strengths of fresh milk and yogurt, aiming to develop billion-level products. The DTC model is expected to contribute significantly to growth, with a target of over 30% revenue share from DTC channels by 2027 [3][20]. - The company plans to enhance its product portfolio by leveraging its proprietary strain library and expanding into new product categories like low-temperature yogurt drinks, while also exploring international markets in Southeast Asia [4][21]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% in scale and aims to double its net profit margin to over 7.8% by 2027. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 723.97 million RMB, 841.28 million RMB, and 953.46 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.84 RMB, 0.98 RMB, and 1.11 RMB [6][12][21].

Summary of the Conference Call for New Dairy Industry Company Overview - **Company**: New Dairy Industry - **Focus**: Low-temperature products, particularly fresh milk and specialty yogurt Key Points and Arguments Industry and Product Focus - **Optimistic Outlook**: New Dairy Industry holds an optimistic view on low-temperature products for 2025, focusing on key categories and core channels to drive annual performance growth [2][4] - **Product Composition**: Low-temperature products account for approximately 50% of total sales, with ambient products at about 40%. Within low-temperature products, fresh milk and specialty yogurt each represent around 20% of the market [2][5] Financial Performance and Goals - **Net Profit Margin Target**: The company aims to double its net profit margin by 2025, with a plan to increase it by 0.5 to 1 percentage points this year through product structure optimization and new product launches [2][9] - **Gross Margin Improvement**: In Q1 2025, the gross margin increased by approximately three percentage points, driven by a product structure upgrade and a double-digit growth in low-temperature products, while ambient products saw a decline of about 10% [4][25] Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Strategy - **DTC Channel Growth**: Currently, the DTC channel accounts for about 16% to 17% of total sales, with a higher profit margin of around 40%. The company plans to increase this to 30% by 2027 [2][10] New Product Development - **Focus on Innovation**: New Dairy Industry emphasizes new product development, with new products accounting for at least double-digit revenue each year. Recent launches include various yogurt products and organic fresh milk [2][8] Market Challenges and Adjustments - **Performance of Summer Brand**: The Summer brand underperformed in 2024 due to a high proportion of ambient products. Adjustments in personnel, product structure, and channel expansion are expected to improve performance in 2025 [2][16] - **Pressure on Ambient Products**: Ambient yogurt and milk products face pressure, with slight improvements noted in April and May 2025, but overall growth remains a concern [4][7] Competitive Landscape - **Industry Competition**: The dairy industry is experiencing intense competition, particularly in the ambient milk market, with no significant growth in volume but stable pricing. Local brands are leveraging differentiation strategies to compete [24] Cost Management and Supply Chain - **Cost Control**: The company has a flexible sourcing structure, with only 30% of raw milk sourced from its own farms. This flexibility helps maintain stable revenue and profit growth despite fluctuations in raw milk prices [4][18] Future Outlook - **Long-term Growth**: The company does not provide specific quantitative forecasts but expects overall revenue growth driven by low-temperature categories, which present structural opportunities despite a slowing beverage industry [6] Additional Insights - **Student Milk Market**: The domestic student milk market is contracting, but the company is promoting self-ordering channels, which currently account for about 4% to 5% of main business revenue [28] - **Potential M&A Activity**: While focusing on organic growth, the company remains open to M&A opportunities, particularly in economically developed regions [30] Product Development Directions - **Innovation in Dairy Products**: The company is exploring new directions in product development, including unique milk sources and innovative flavors in low-temperature yogurt [31] Dividend and Share Buyback Plans - **Dividend Policy**: The company plans to maintain a dividend level at least equal to that of 2024, with specific plans to be announced after the semi-annual report [32]