上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2025 年 08 月 27 日 新乳业 (002946) ——25H1 点评：低温业务引领增长 净利率提升超预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 18.25 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 21.49/7.89 | | 市净率 | 5.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.56 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 15,525 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,800.35/12,295.07 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 3.69 | | 资产负债率% | 62.53 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 861/851 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-27 09-27 10-27 11-27 12-27 01-27 02-27 03-27 04-27 ...

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder, Universal Dairy Limited (UDL), plans to reduce its stake in New Dairy by up to 3% of the total share capital, amounting to approximately 487 million yuan based on the closing price on June 27, 2023, which has raised market attention given the company's stock price has doubled in the past year [1][2]. Shareholder Reduction Plan - UDL intends to sell 25.82 million shares within three months after the announcement, representing 3% of the total share capital, with a maximum of 8.61 million shares through centralized bidding and 17.21 million shares through block trading [2]. - UDL currently holds 560 million shares, accounting for 65.07% of the total share capital, and the actual controller is Liu Chang, who acquired these shares before the company went public [2]. - This marks the first significant reduction by the controlling shareholder since New Dairy's listing, and if the maximum reduction occurs, UDL's stake will decrease to 62.07%, still maintaining control [2]. Stock Performance and Financials - New Dairy operates primarily in regional markets, focusing on differentiated competition, with over 50% of its products being low-temperature items, surpassing the industry average [3]. - The stock price has seen a significant increase, from a low of 7.6 yuan in August 2024 to a peak of 21.19 yuan in 2025, reflecting a more than 160% increase [3]. - As of June 27, 2023, the stock price was 18.88 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 16.3 billion yuan [3]. - Despite a 2.93% decrease in revenue in 2024, the company reported a 48.46% year-on-year increase in net profit, attributed to product structure optimization and cost control [3]. Strategic Outlook and Market Reaction - New Dairy plans to continue its "Fresh Cube" strategy, focusing on low-temperature product development and expanding its cold chain distribution network by 50,000 new points, aiming to increase the revenue share of low-temperature products to 55% [4]. - Analysts note that while the reduction does not directly impact operations, it may affect market sentiment, with concerns about whether the funds will be reinvested into the company or used for individual shareholder needs [4].

Summary of the Conference Call for New Dairy Industry Company Overview - **Company**: New Dairy Industry - **Focus**: Low-temperature products, particularly fresh milk and specialty yogurt Key Points and Arguments Industry and Product Focus - **Optimistic Outlook**: New Dairy Industry holds an optimistic view on low-temperature products for 2025, focusing on key categories and core channels to drive annual performance growth [2][4] - **Product Composition**: Low-temperature products account for approximately 50% of total sales, with ambient products at about 40%. Within low-temperature products, fresh milk and specialty yogurt each represent around 20% of the market [2][5] Financial Performance and Goals - **Net Profit Margin Target**: The company aims to double its net profit margin by 2025, with a plan to increase it by 0.5 to 1 percentage points this year through product structure optimization and new product launches [2][9] - **Gross Margin Improvement**: In Q1 2025, the gross margin increased by approximately three percentage points, driven by a product structure upgrade and a double-digit growth in low-temperature products, while ambient products saw a decline of about 10% [4][25] Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Strategy - **DTC Channel Growth**: Currently, the DTC channel accounts for about 16% to 17% of total sales, with a higher profit margin of around 40%. The company plans to increase this to 30% by 2027 [2][10] New Product Development - **Focus on Innovation**: New Dairy Industry emphasizes new product development, with new products accounting for at least double-digit revenue each year. Recent launches include various yogurt products and organic fresh milk [2][8] Market Challenges and Adjustments - **Performance of Summer Brand**: The Summer brand underperformed in 2024 due to a high proportion of ambient products. Adjustments in personnel, product structure, and channel expansion are expected to improve performance in 2025 [2][16] - **Pressure on Ambient Products**: Ambient yogurt and milk products face pressure, with slight improvements noted in April and May 2025, but overall growth remains a concern [4][7] Competitive Landscape - **Industry Competition**: The dairy industry is experiencing intense competition, particularly in the ambient milk market, with no significant growth in volume but stable pricing. Local brands are leveraging differentiation strategies to compete [24] Cost Management and Supply Chain - **Cost Control**: The company has a flexible sourcing structure, with only 30% of raw milk sourced from its own farms. This flexibility helps maintain stable revenue and profit growth despite fluctuations in raw milk prices [4][18] Future Outlook - **Long-term Growth**: The company does not provide specific quantitative forecasts but expects overall revenue growth driven by low-temperature categories, which present structural opportunities despite a slowing beverage industry [6] Additional Insights - **Student Milk Market**: The domestic student milk market is contracting, but the company is promoting self-ordering channels, which currently account for about 4% to 5% of main business revenue [28] - **Potential M&A Activity**: While focusing on organic growth, the company remains open to M&A opportunities, particularly in economically developed regions [30] Product Development Directions - **Innovation in Dairy Products**: The company is exploring new directions in product development, including unique milk sources and innovative flavors in low-temperature yogurt [31] Dividend and Share Buyback Plans - **Dividend Policy**: The company plans to maintain a dividend level at least equal to that of 2024, with specific plans to be announced after the semi-annual report [32]

Group 1 - The "Hehuang Delicacies: Encountering Jinling" Qinghai Food Festival opened in Nanjing, allowing local residents to taste authentic Qinghai flavors and enhancing cooperation between Jiangsu and Qinghai [1] - The festival lasts for one month and features Qinghai's natural scenery and cultural heritage through promotional videos and performances [1] - Qinghai has established 33 direct supply bases for green organic agricultural and livestock products in Jiangsu and set up 116 direct sales stores, achieving sales of 1.23 billion yuan in Qinghai agricultural specialty products [1] Group 2 - The festival includes the sale of various non-heritage handicrafts from Huangzhong District and awards were given to 13 well-known catering enterprises in Jiangsu, indicating future collaboration to introduce high-quality Qinghai ingredients into local restaurants [2] - The event aims to integrate highland flavors into the daily dining experiences of residents in Nanjing and Jiangsu [2]