这笔账算不过来了 墨尔本内东南多个被列入 "高密度发展" 计划的热门区域， 近期出现大量公寓亏本出售的情况。 数据显示: 部分区域亏损成交比例高达42%，引发业内对未来高层项目可行性的担忧。 维州政府已将Armadale、Malvern、Prahran、South Yarra和Windsor纳入60个 "交通活动中心" 名单， 鼓励在火车站和电车线路周边建设更高密度住宅。 其中，Malvern、Prahran和South Yarra部分地段允许最高16层建筑， Armadale和Windsor部分区域则可建至10层。 不过，房地产研究机构Cotality的最新数据显示: 这些区域不少公寓正以低于买入价出售。 2025年11月前三个月，South Yarra有41.9%的公寓成交为亏损， Prahran为34.9%。Windsor亏损比例为25%，Malvern为22.7%，Armadale为17.3%。 | | | Share of loss making | 12 month change in | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Suburb | Median value | sa ...

核心要点 高房价、供应疲软以及消费者对经济信心不足，持续拖累美国房地产市场。 据美国全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）数据，1 月份二手房销量经季节性调整后按年率计算为391 万 套，环比大跌8.4%，降幅超出预期；同比 2025 年 1 月下降4.4%，为 2023 年 12 月以来最慢销售速度。 该数据以实际过户量统计，对应的签约时间多为去年 11 月和 12 月，当时 30 年期固定抵押贷款平均利 率波动不大，直至 1 月才小幅回落。据《抵押贷款新闻日报》数据，目前该利率为6.1%。 从地区看，全美各区域销量环比均下滑，其中南部和西部跌幅最大。 美国全国房地产经纪人协会首席经济学家劳伦斯・云在声明中表示： "购房负担能力正在改善，NAR 住房负担能力指数显示，当前住房可负担性为 2022 年 3 月以来最佳。 这得益于薪资涨幅超过房价涨幅，且抵押贷款利率低于去年同期。然而，住房供应未能跟上，仍处于极 低水平。" 1 月份美国二手房销量环比大跌8.4%，降幅超出预期。 1 月份房屋成交中位价为396，800 美元，同比上涨 0.9%，创历史同期最高纪录。 房屋库存较 12 月有所下降，但同比仍增长3.4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Barkin indicates that housing supply remains constrained, similar to the challenges faced by "DEI" initiatives [1] Group 1 - Housing supply issues are highlighted as a significant concern in the current economic landscape [1] - The comparison to "DEI" suggests that systemic barriers are affecting housing availability [1]

Core Insights - The analysis reveals that approximately 30,000 approved housing units in Australia have not yet commenced construction, while the construction cycle continues to extend and building costs remain high [1][2]. Group 1: Current Housing Market Status - As of Q1 this year, there are 219,000 housing units under construction, comparable to the peak construction period of the 2010s, but the time required for completion has increased significantly [2]. - The average completion time for new apartments has risen from about 6 quarters a decade ago to over 9 quarters now [2]. - The federal government aims to build 1.2 million new homes within five years, with the closest achievement being just over 1 million homes completed in the five years ending December 2019 [2]. Group 2: Housing Ownership and Quality Concerns - Despite an increase in housing supply, home ownership rates have declined from 67.2% in June 2014 to 66.2% in June 2020, with some newly built apartments having serious defects [6]. - The focus should not only be on supply but also on improving home ownership rates and living standards [6]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - The government should prioritize advancing existing projects to enhance productivity, reduce costs, and maintain quality, rather than merely increasing approvals for new housing [6][8]. - Suggestions include focusing on modular construction and facilitating the movement of construction workers across states and countries [8]. - Addressing housing demand through measures such as reducing negative gearing and capital gains tax benefits, implementing land taxes, or including family homes in pension asset tests could also be beneficial [8]. Group 4: Economic Viability and Planning - The housing supply progress is hindered by economic unfeasibility, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, where high costs and low property prices slow down industry growth [8]. - Improving zoning regulations is essential to enhance the economic viability of building more housing, particularly apartments [8]. - Increasing housing supply is expected to stabilize prices rather than lead to a significant drop in prices, with the goal being to make housing more affordable [9].

Group 1 - The Australian housing market experienced a brief decline of 0.4% from November 2024 to January 2025, attributed to interest rate hikes and cost of living pressures, but rebounded in February 2025 following the first interest rate cut in over two years [1][3] - In the first five months of 2025, national residential prices increased by 1.7%, with all capital cities showing at least a 0.4% rise in May, including Sydney (0.5%), Melbourne (0.4%), Brisbane (0.6%), and Perth (0.7%) [3][5] - The current housing market is characterized by a mix of positive and negative factors, with affordability issues and high household debt being the main concerns, while interest rate cuts, improved buyer confidence, and insufficient housing supply are seen as positive influences [5][6] Group 2 - Melbourne's current housing prices are still 4.5% lower than their peak in March 2022, while Sydney's prices are only 0.3% below their high in September 2024, indicating a significant price gap between the two cities not seen since 1999 [5][6] - The CEO of McGrath Real Estate noted that buyer confidence is recovering, and if further interest rate cuts occur in 2025, it could significantly boost market sentiment [6] - Market conditions are expected to normalize, with predictions of a 2.5% to 5% increase in properties priced below 2 million AUD by Christmas, reflecting a gradual return of market confidence [6][7]