Group 1 - The article highlights the aggressive unilateralism and expansionism of the Trump administration, particularly through a global tariff war aimed at China, with tariffs on Chinese goods skyrocketing from 34% to 245% in a short span [1][3] - In response to U.S. tariffs, China retaliated by raising tariffs on U.S. goods to a maximum of 125%, indicating a potential stalemate in trade relations if tariffs continued to escalate [3][5] - The Chinese government utilized strategic communication, such as the release of a video titled "Not Kneeling," to unify domestic opinion and bolster morale against U.S. tariff aggression [5][12] Group 2 - The article discusses how Trump's core interest lies in maintaining his power and political base, rather than purely financial gains, which influenced his approach to negotiations with China [7][9] - The U.S. strategy shifted to countering China's influence in Asia and ASEAN, with Trump sending tariff letters to various Asian countries to isolate China from global supply chains [11][12] - The article notes that despite the appearance of a thaw in U.S.-China relations, the underlying strategy of containment and competition against China remains consistent across U.S. political parties [9][12] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that the U.S. is attempting to create a facade of improved relations with China to mislead other countries and undermine their ties with China [12][14] - Southeast Asian nations are increasingly recognizing the U.S. tactics and are expressing support for multilateral cooperation, indicating a potential shift in regional alliances [16]

2025 年下半年宏观经济展望 产业重塑下的宏观剧本 2025 年 06 月 16 日 ➢ 回顾上半年，经济和市场最大的意外和波动是来自于特朗普政策的捉摸不 透。而这种风格带来的主要影响就是预期和实际的分化，例如预期恶化明显，但 实际经济数据却因滞后反应等因素表现韧性。展望下半年，预期和现实的分化会 继续，但是可能会呈现相反的状态。一方面，特朗普政策对预期冲击最大的阶段 已经过去；另一方面，政策对经济的负面影响下半年或将逐步显现。 ➢ 宏观的不确定性依旧是短期内的核心主线，但从更长的视野来看，我们也要 试着去把握一些确定性的叙事和逻辑，海外是美元信用体系的削弱，国内则是"十 五五"等长期战略下，科技产业链的布局。具体来看： [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 陶川 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0100524060005 | | | 邮箱： | taochuan@mszq.com | | 分析师 | 邵翔 | | 执业证书： S0100524080007 | | | 邮箱： | shaoxiang@mszq.com | | 分析师 | 林彦 | | 执业证书： S01005250 ...