Core Viewpoint - The overall real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and weak recovery in Q2 2025, with new home supply and demand both increasing month-on-month but decreasing year-on-year, indicating significant supply constraints [1][2][6]. Supply - In Q2 2025, new home supply increased month-on-month but decreased by 20% year-on-year, with significant supply constraints remaining [2][6]. - Only first-tier cities saw a notable increase in supply, while second and third-tier cities continued to experience low supply levels, with the largest declines in the latter [4][6]. - The supply situation varied by city, with hotspots like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Hangzhou experiencing increased supply, while weaker second and third-tier cities like Foshan and Huizhou saw significant declines [6][7]. Transaction Volume - The real estate market showed a weak recovery in Q2 2025, with a slight month-on-month increase in new home transactions, but a year-on-year decline [7][10]. - First-tier cities maintained strong transaction volumes, with cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing positive year-on-year growth, while second and third-tier cities experienced mixed results [10][11]. - Overall, the transaction volume is expected to decline in Q3 compared to Q2, but the year-on-year decline may narrow due to last year's low base [27]. Second-hand Transactions - In Q2 2025, second-hand home transactions remained high but showed a downward trend month-on-month, with cities like Shenzhen and Xi'an experiencing significant year-on-year growth [11][14]. - Some third-tier cities also saw substantial growth due to low base effects from the previous year, while others remained in a correction phase [14][15]. Housing Prices - New home prices in 70 cities showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, with first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen maintaining high prices, while third-tier cities experienced steady price corrections [15][16]. - The price dynamics are influenced by the introduction of high-quality new properties, which have stabilized and slightly increased prices in certain markets [15][16]. Inventory - As of May 2025, the inventory of new homes was 463 million square meters, showing a downward trend due to supply constraints and stable transaction volumes [18][21]. - The inventory turnover period is stabilizing at around 25 months, with first-tier cities showing a significant decrease in inventory risks [21][23]. Outlook - The supply is expected to decline in Q3 2025, with first-tier cities remaining the focus for new launches due to strong demand [25][26]. - The overall market is anticipated to continue its weak recovery, with significant differentiation between core first and second-tier cities and weaker third-tier cities [27].

随着补货的增加，让市场价格理性回落，对泡泡玛特未尝不是好事。 微信编辑 | 小羊 推荐阅读 页面信息显示，6月19日上午，千岛平台该系列 Labubu 现货、整端未拆最低一笔交易价为645元， 溢价不足百元。6月18日 Labubu 该系列成交均价为1210.9元，较6月15日成交均价已下降近400 元。 6月18日，记者关注到， Labubu 在天猫官方旗舰店、微信小程序等渠道大量放货，抖音潮玩直播间 等也有 Labubu 上新。18日当晚，仅泡泡玛特天猫直播间的两个链接就放出25万+件新品，预售最 晚至8月4日发货。 消费者对 Labubu 的热情仍然高涨，天猫直播间的数次上新均被"秒空"，主播一度放弃商品讲解， 手把手教大家抢货"刷新、关闭右上角、再刷新、直到链接变亮。"在泡泡玛特官方抽盒机小程序， 一位消费者告诉记者，"挤进去以后发现排队7000多人"，小红书等社交平台，甚至有消费者晒出截 图称有七万多人在排队。 随着 Labubu 的爆火，平衡市场供求关系，加快补货是泡泡玛特目前的一项重要挑战。一位"娃 圈"资深爱好者对记者表示，黄牛、盗版现象的猖獗损害着泡泡玛特的用户体验和用户长期运营，爆 火之下 ...

6月18日，记者关注到，labubu在天猫官方旗舰店、微信小程序等渠道大量放货，抖音潮玩直播间等也有labubu上新。18日当晚，仅泡泡玛特天猫直播间的两 个链接就放出25万+件新品，预售最晚至8月4日发货。 消费者对labubu的热情仍然高涨，天猫直播间的数次上新均被"秒空"，主播一度放弃商品讲解，手把手教大家抢货"刷新、关闭右上角、再刷新、直到链接 变亮。"在泡泡玛特官方抽盒机小程序，一位消费者告诉记者，"挤进去以后发现排队7000多人"，小红书等社交平台，甚至有消费者晒出截图称有七万多人 在排队。 随着补货的增加，让市场价格理性回落，对泡泡玛特未尝不是好事。 6月19日，第一财经记者发现，潮玩二手交易平台千岛app的labubu心动马卡龙系列近3日成交均价已下降10%，平台在商品页面提醒消费者"受官方补货影 响，价格可能存在明显波动，请理性消费。" 页面信息显示，6月19日上午，千岛平台该系列labubu现货、整端未拆最低一笔交易价为645元，溢价不足百元。6月18日labubu该系列成交均价为1210.9元， 较6月15日成交均价已下降近400元。 随着labubu的爆火，平衡市场供求关系，加快补货是 ...