房地产行业 | 策 | 投 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 略 | 资 | | | | | | 报 | 策 | | | | | | 告 | 略 | | | | | | 房地产行业 | | | | | | | 房地产（标配，维持） | 中央城市工作会议召开，行业或迎来发展新格局 | 行 | 行 | | | | 业 | 业 | | | | | | 房地产行业专题报告 | 研 | 研 | | | | | 究 | | | | | | | 2025 | 年 | 08 | 月 | 25 | 日 | | 究 | | | | | | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | 时隔十年再次召开会议 | 意义及影响深远。2025年中央城市工作会议 | 推荐 |  | 指明方向后，未来房地产行业发展将"以推进城市更新为重要抓手"， | | | 分析师：何敏仪 | 以"加快构建房地产发展新模式"作为核心任务。后续城市更新、 | SAC | 执业证书编号： | | | | 老旧小区改造等将加速推进，同时房地产企业改变发展模式，行业 | S0340513040001 ...

城市更新的本质，是告别"土地财政依赖症"的集体觉醒。过去几十年，一些城市靠"摊大饼"快速扩张， 高楼如雨后春笋，道路越修越宽，但代价是"千城一面"的同质化、历史文脉的断裂、生态韧性的透支。 如今，城镇化率突破67%，城市发展已进入"存量博弈"阶段——不是没有土地，而是缺乏对存量的想象 力；不是没有空间，而是缺少对空间的敬畏心。成都将燃气管网埋入地下、郑州用"微更新"激活口袋公 园、上海以"一江一河"缝合城市肌理，这些案例揭示了一个真理：真正的城市更新，不是推倒重来的革 命，而是绣花式的革新；不是冰冷的数字游戏，而是有温度的人文觉醒。 时下，中国城市正从"摊大饼式"的增量扩张转向"绣花式"的存量提质。业内人士认为，涵盖资金支持、 土地保障、社会资本参与机制等方面的相关政策有望加速出台，为高质量城市更新注入动能。 城市是文明的容器，也是时代的镜子。从增量扩张到存量提质，不仅是发展策略的转向，更是治理理念 的升华。当我们将目光从冰冷的业绩数据移向街巷深处的烟火人生，当我们将算盘从土地财政转向民生 账本，城市才能真正成为"诗意栖居之地"。一座城市是否伟大，不在于有多少摩天大楼，而在于能否让 每个普通人"望得见山、看得 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) in China, emphasizing its significance as the concluding year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" (2021-2025) and the need for strategic planning to address complex economic challenges and opportunities ahead [1][15]. Group 1: Development Environment - The political bureau meeting highlights that the development environment for the "15th Five-Year Plan" faces profound and complex changes, with both strategic opportunities and risks coexisting, and an increase in unpredictable factors [2][18]. - Compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan," the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing the competitiveness of China's manufacturing supply side while addressing demand-side issues such as insufficient effective demand [2][19]. Group 2: Key Tasks and Goals - The key tasks of the "15th Five-Year Plan" are summarized as "consolidating the foundation and making comprehensive efforts," indicating a continuation and deepening of the previous plan's objectives [3][23]. - The economic growth target for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is yet to be clearly defined, but it is expected to maintain a reasonable growth rate, with potential annual growth rates estimated between 4.8% and 5.0% [4][27]. Group 3: Innovation and Industry Development - "Innovation-driven" development is likely to be a key focus, with an emphasis on integrating technological and industrial innovation to cultivate globally competitive emerging pillar industries [5][35]. - The plan may prioritize sectors such as artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, and marine economy, reflecting a shift towards new quality productivity [6][35]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Balance - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to optimize the supply-demand balance, addressing the discrepancies between actual and nominal growth rates observed during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7][19]. - It will promote the construction of a unified national market and optimize the supply-demand ratio in key industries to achieve dynamic balance [7][19]. Group 5: Investment in Human Capital - The plan emphasizes "investing in people," focusing on improving consumption contributions to growth, addressing demographic challenges, and enhancing social security mechanisms [8][19]. - Policies may include promoting service consumption and addressing youth employment issues, particularly for the 16-24 age group [8][19]. Group 6: Real Estate and Urban Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will shift from expanding urbanization to enhancing the quality of existing urban stock, with a focus on new models of real estate development [9][19]. - It will also prioritize urban infrastructure upgrades, including improvements in waste management and transportation systems [9][19]. Group 7: Reform and Opening Up - The plan is expected to deepen reforms, particularly in state-owned enterprise collaboration with private enterprises, and to optimize the fiscal system to encourage consumption [10][19]. - Expanding institutional openness will be a key direction, enhancing compatibility with external markets amid rising global protectionism [10][19]. Group 8: Strategic Resources and Regional Coordination - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on securing strategic resources and enhancing the resilience of supply chains, particularly in critical industries [11][19]. - Regional coordination will be emphasized, with initiatives aimed at fostering collaboration in technology and industry across different regions [12][19].