推荐碳酸锂板块 20250718 摘要 碳酸锂价格虽曾跌破 6 万元，但海外矿价逼近 500 美元，成本支撑显现， 产业端收紧信号频现，如延产减产、资本下滑及宜春矿权审查，共同推 动价格回升，市场处于易涨难跌状态。 宜春矿权审查和赞格停产等供给端加速出清事件，虽影响量不大，但对 政策预期和市场情绪有较大影响。中矿资源铝延产线检修技改及海外二 季度出货量下滑，均显示企业在低价位上的应对。 碳酸锂价格受供给端出清、旺季需求预期及反内卷政策支撑，具备修复 窗口和持续向上动力，不排除超预期上涨可能。多晶硅与碳酸锂历史联 动性，也支撑锂板块向上弹性。 7 月锂电行业需求超预期，环比增长超 5%，储能端发力明显，车企冲 刺 630 销量目标亦有贡献。8、9 月传统旺季需求预计坚挺，上游正极 材料和电池采购将提前备货。 美国市场储能需求受关税谈判和《大美丽法案》影响，企业为避险和确 保明年补贴提前发货，预计年底将现抢装潮，国内大储也将进行年度抢 装，形成两波需求高峰。 Q&A 最近商品价格的上涨趋势及其背后的原因是什么？ 最近商品价格的上涨主要受到反内卷政策的影响。部分品种已经跌至企业现金 流亏损的水平，导致中央出台了一系 ...

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is currently facing intense competition and significant profit pressure, with historical trends indicating that environmental policies have previously driven the exit of outdated capacity, and new national standards are expected to catalyze a new round of supply-side clearing in the industry [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The paper industry is experiencing an oversupply situation, with paper prices and profitability at low levels. The operating rates and inventory levels are relatively stable in the short term, but the oversupply has intensified since 2020, leading companies to adopt aggressive pricing strategies to gain market share [1][2] - Capacity growth in the industry has accelerated, exacerbating the oversupply situation. From 2010 to 2020, domestic capacity growth outpaced demand growth, with a notable increase in capacity since 2020 [1][2] Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Competition - Taking double glue paper as an example, from 2020 to 2025, the industry is expected to add a cumulative capacity of 6.41 million tons, with leading companies like Sun Paper (1 million tons) and Nine Dragons Paper (1.85 million tons) significantly increasing production. This trend is driven by the saturation of various paper segments, prompting leading companies to diversify their product offerings [2] - The new capacity is often accompanied by self-sufficient pulp lines, which allows new entrants to adopt low-price competition strategies, putting further pressure on paper prices. Since the second half of 2023, the profitability of paper machines has been operating below the breakeven line [2] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historically, the high prosperity of the paper industry from 2015 to 2018 was primarily driven by supply-side factors, particularly the implementation of environmental policies that restricted both existing and new capacity, leading to significant increases in paper prices and profitability [3] - Looking ahead, the current cycle has seen rapid expansion of capacity and companies, with record losses and low profits. The supply side faces challenges such as small-scale production lines and low entry barriers in certain paper types, making it difficult for leading companies to eliminate smaller competitors. Additionally, new national standards are expected to enhance energy consumption limits, potentially catalyzing a new round of supply-side clearing [3]

中美贸易谈判取得初步成果，关注美线集运抢出口大潮 20250606 摘要 2025 年 5 月下旬上海 SCFI 指数显著上涨，美线运价飙升 58%，华建 航线上涨 20%，反映中美贸易关系缓和及需求快速反弹。红海绕行持续， 加剧了美线供给紧张，推动运价上涨，并对其他航线产生溢出效应。 中国对东盟六国出口额已超过对美国和欧洲，东南亚正成为中国产品出 口和产能输出的主阵地，中国与东南亚新兴市场之间的贸易将持续增长， 为相关物流及供应链企业带来更多机遇。 集装箱船队平均船龄达历史最高值 13.84 年，老旧船舶经济性下降，船 东降速运行，长期来看，大量老旧船舶报废将加速运力供给端出清。新 造订单虽处于高位，但交付周期长，运力增长空间受限。 中美贸易谈判取得初步成果，关税降低刺激外贸商加大对美发货力度， 导致集装箱运输价格暴涨。美国对华关税降至 30%，中国对美国加征关 税降至 10%，贸易摩擦缓解利好航运。 红海绕行预计 2025 年持续，短期内支撑运输量和价格。中美贸易战暂 时停火使得需求迅速回升，但供给端恢复较慢，美线依然处于紧缩状态， 美线上涨利好正在向其他航线溢出并收紧其供给。 Q&A 2025 年中期， ...