Group 1 - The report from CITIC Securities highlights rising concerns over high asset risks as commodity prices, such as copper, reach historical highs, while attention shifts to underperforming assets like crude oil, coal, and electrolytic aluminum [1] - It is expected that the copper-aluminum ratio returning to anticipated levels will support aluminum prices at high levels, with seasonal demand and policy disruptions influencing the market [1] - The report forecasts that by Q4 2025, thermal coal prices may continue to recover, while coking coal prices are expected to decline due to weakening demand [1] Group 2 - In terms of copper and cobalt, supply disruptions in September have pushed copper prices to historical highs, while reduced export quotas for cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo have driven cobalt prices upward [1] - The supply-side disruptions are anticipated to remain a key factor influencing commodity prices through Q4 2025, with expectations for continued price increases for copper and cobalt [1] - The demand for lithium is expected to rise significantly due to a surge in energy storage battery shipments, transitioning the industry from oversupply to a phase of temporary shortage, with prices likely to continue rising into Q4 2025 [1] Group 3 - Silicon products, which saw significant price increases in Q3 due to expectations of anti-involution policies, are also projected to experience slight price increases in Q4 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side may see a reduction after offsetting increases and decreases, while the demand side has mixed trends. Short - term silicon prices are expected to continue a relatively strong consolidation with amplified fluctuations, and short - term operations are recommended. In the long - term, there is upward pressure on the market [1]. - For polysilicon, driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term, but there is a risk of price decline after reaching a high [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information** - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained at 9,500 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.69% [1]. - The basis (East China 553 - futures main) was 205 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [1]. - **Market News** - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will limit the daily opening volume of polysilicon futures and the SI2509 contract of industrial silicon futures from July 21, 2025 [1]. - As of July 17, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 54.7 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous week [1]. - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Northern large factories have production cuts with no resumption news, and the southwest region is about to enter the wet season with a slow resumption of production. Overall, supply may decrease [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts but some will resume production in July; organic silicon enterprises have strong intentions to cut production and support prices but weak demand; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information** - N - type dense material rose 3.41% to 45.5 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material rose 2.75% to 46.75 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material rose 1.15% to 44 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 43 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closed at 45,700 yuan/ton, up 6.42% [1]. - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production cuts, but new production capacity may be put into operation, and the output in July is expected to approach 110,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Although the trading atmosphere has improved recently, the terminal market remains weak [1]. Other Products - **Silicon Wafer Prices** - N - type 210mm wafers rose 23.70% to 1.67 yuan/piece, N - type 210R wafers rose 24.35% to 1.43 yuan/piece, and N - type 183mm wafers rose 25.00% to 1.25 yuan/piece. P - type 210mm and P - type 182mm wafers remained unchanged [1]. - **Battery Cell Prices** - The price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm remained at 0.27 yuan/watt [1]. - **Component Prices** - The prices of single - crystal PERC components remained unchanged [1]. - **Organic Silicon Prices** - The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained unchanged [1].