祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250821：高位整理 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/21 指标 | | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,050.00 | -1.63% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,390.00 | -2.72% | | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 660.00 | 85.00 | | | 46.00 | N型多晶硅料 | 元/千克 | | 0.00% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 51,875.00 | -0.74% | | | 元/吨 | 基差 | | -5,875.00 | 385.00 | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 9,050.00 | -1.63% | | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 元 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The silicon price has declined and adjusted due to the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure above the market, but recently the bullish sentiment has resurfaced, and it is expected that the silicon price may maintain a high - level and strong consolidation. For polysilicon, since the end of June, driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, the polysilicon market has continued to rise, and although the sentiment has faded recently, it still fluctuates, with prices remaining high and volatile, requiring cautious operation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Industrial Silicon Spot Price**: The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in different regions (East China, Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, Sichuan) remained unchanged at 9,200 yuan/ton, 9,300 yuan/ton, 9,100 yuan/ton, 9,250 yuan/ton, and 8,950 yuan/ton respectively; the average price of oxygen - blown 553 in different regions remained unchanged; the average price of 421 in different regions also remained unchanged [1] - **Industrial Silicon Futures Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract was 8,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.78% from the previous day [1] - **Polysilicon Spot Price**: N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon prices remained unchanged at 46 yuan/kg, 47 yuan/kg, 45 yuan/kg, and 44.5 yuan/kg respectively [1] - **Polysilicon Futures Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract was 51,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.24% from the previous day [1] - **Silicon Wafer Price**: The prices of N - type 210mm, N - type 210R, and N - type 183mm silicon wafers remained unchanged at 1.55 yuan/piece, 1.35 yuan/piece, and 1.20 yuan/piece respectively [1] - **Battery Chip Price**: The price of single - crystal PERC battery chips M10 - 182mm remained unchanged at 0.27 yuan/watt [1] - **Component Price**: The prices of single - sided and double - sided single - crystal PERC components of different specifications remained unchanged [1] - **Organic Silicon Price**: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, 12,750 yuan/ton, and 14,100 yuan/ton respectively [1] News and Information - Yantai Huaxing Silicon Materials Co., Ltd. was established, jointly held by Xingfa Group and Wanhua Chemical, marking the deepening of their strategic cooperation in the silicon materials field [1] - Shifang Baichuan Xinyong New Energy Co., Ltd. is promoting its high - efficiency perovskite solar cell production project, planning to build two pilot production lines, with a design annual output of 1.4GW of high - efficiency silicon solar cells and an expansion of perovskite tandem solar cell production capacity to 200MW/year [1] Investment Strategy - Industrial Silicon - **Supply Side**: As the silicon price continues to rise, some previously overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In addition, the southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower electricity costs and a steady increase in enterprise start - up rates. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1] - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction state, and some silicon material plants have复产 arrangements, which will bring some demand increments; in the organic silicon sector, a large factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply, but recently the monomer plants have recovered, increasing market supply pressure and potentially pressuring prices again; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1] Investment Strategy - Polysilicon - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction state, and some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 110,000 tons, and the output in August will increase to about 130,000 tons month - on - month [1] - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market is generally weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed suit, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the terminal market is still weak due to the large over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon price has been adjusted downward due to cooling sentiment and hedging pressure on the upper side of the futures market. However, the bullish sentiment has resurfaced recently, and it is expected that the silicon price will remain strong at a high level. For polysilicon, since the end of June, driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, the polysilicon futures market has continued to rise, and the price has repeatedly hit new highs since listing. Although the sentiment has faded recently, there are still fluctuations, and the price remains strong at a high level with large market volatility, so operation requires caution [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.10% to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 0.52% to 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.33% to 9,000 yuan/ton. The N - type polysilicon material price remained unchanged, with N - type dense material at 46 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material at 47 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material at 45 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon at 44.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract rose 4.32% to 52,985 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis of Industrial Silicon - Supply: As the silicon price continues to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower electricity costs and steadily increasing enterprise operations. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some demand increments. In the organic silicon sector, a large factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, with a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plants have recovered, increasing market supply pressure and potentially pressuring prices again. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis of Polysilicon - Supply: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, the output is expected to increase slightly, with an expected output approaching 110,000 tons in July and increasing to about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - Demand: The photovoltaic market is generally weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed suit. Enterprises say they will actively respond to policies, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the high - volume installations in the first half of the year have significantly overdrawn demand, and the terminal market remains weak [1]. 3.4 Industry News - Silicon Bao Technology has launched self - developed low - density, high - flame - retardant organic silicon sealing materials for the power battery adhesive field, and double - component fast - curing organic silicon sealants for the photovoltaic adhesive field [1]. - Indian energy enterprise SAEL Industries' subsidiary will build a 5GW battery and 5GW component vertically integrated factory in Uttar Pradesh, with a total investment of about 6.8 billion yuan [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side may see a reduction after offsetting increases and decreases, while the demand side has mixed trends. Short - term silicon prices are expected to continue a relatively strong consolidation with amplified fluctuations, and short - term operations are recommended. In the long - term, there is upward pressure on the market [1]. - For polysilicon, driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term, but there is a risk of price decline after reaching a high [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information** - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained at 9,500 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.69% [1]. - The basis (East China 553 - futures main) was 205 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [1]. - **Market News** - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will limit the daily opening volume of polysilicon futures and the SI2509 contract of industrial silicon futures from July 21, 2025 [1]. - As of July 17, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 54.7 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous week [1]. - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Northern large factories have production cuts with no resumption news, and the southwest region is about to enter the wet season with a slow resumption of production. Overall, supply may decrease [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts but some will resume production in July; organic silicon enterprises have strong intentions to cut production and support prices but weak demand; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information** - N - type dense material rose 3.41% to 45.5 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material rose 2.75% to 46.75 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material rose 1.15% to 44 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 43 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closed at 45,700 yuan/ton, up 6.42% [1]. - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production cuts, but new production capacity may be put into operation, and the output in July is expected to approach 110,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Although the trading atmosphere has improved recently, the terminal market remains weak [1]. Other Products - **Silicon Wafer Prices** - N - type 210mm wafers rose 23.70% to 1.67 yuan/piece, N - type 210R wafers rose 24.35% to 1.43 yuan/piece, and N - type 183mm wafers rose 25.00% to 1.25 yuan/piece. P - type 210mm and P - type 182mm wafers remained unchanged [1]. - **Battery Cell Prices** - The price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm remained at 0.27 yuan/watt [1]. - **Component Prices** - The prices of single - crystal PERC components remained unchanged [1]. - **Organic Silicon Prices** - The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained unchanged [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure at low levels in the short term, and the downward space may be relatively limited. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are expected to have no upward trend in the short term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.41% to 7,420 yuan/ton. The prices of different grades and regions of industrial silicon showed little change, except for a 1.20% drop in the average price of non - oxygenated 553 in Kunming and a 1.02% drop in the average price of 421 in Sichuan [1] - Polysilicon: The prices of N - type dense material, polysilicon re - feedstock, polysilicon dense material, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 3.42% to 30,615 yuan/ton [1] - Other products: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and organic silicon products remained unchanged [1] Export and Import Information - Organic silicon: In May 2025, the export volume of primary - form polysiloxane was 4.66 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51%. From January to May 2025, the total export volume was 22.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.73% [1] - Industrial silicon: In May 2025, the export volume was 5.57 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume was 27.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The import volume in May 2025 was very small, and the cumulative import volume from January to May was 0.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55% [1] Inventory Information - As of June 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 million tons. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 13.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 million tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 42.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 million tons [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: For industrial silicon, the start - up of silicon enterprises in the north has changed little, and the southwest production area is about to enter the wet season with lower power costs, so the enterprise start - up is steadily increasing. For polysilicon, silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and although there may be new capacity put into operation, the overall supply is expected to increase slightly [1] - Demand side: For industrial silicon, polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts and the resumption of production may be postponed; organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the overall downstream willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient. For polysilicon, the photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, falling prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, and weak market transactions [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure at low levels in the short term, but the downward space may be limited due to the current low prices. [1] - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and the transaction price is moving downward. Considering the high uncertainty of terminal installation and the difficulty in resolving over - capacity issues in the short term, polysilicon prices are unlikely to show an upward trend in the short term. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Industrial Silicon**: The average price of industrial silicon's non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.96% to 7,560 yuan/ton. [1] - **Polysilicon**: N - type dense material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon re - feedstock remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 32 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 30 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.88% to 34,255 yuan/ton. [1] - **Silicon Wafer**: Most photovoltaic companies' silicon wafer prices followed the market downward, with small and medium - sized enterprises having a larger decline of about 0.03 yuan/piece. In June, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises was generally lower than that in May, mostly between 40% - 60%, a month - on - month decrease of about 3% - 13%. [1] - **Others**: The prices of battery chips, components, and most organic silicon products remained stable, while the price of silicone oil decreased by 0.36% to 13,750 yuan/ton. [1] Industry News - In May, automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May, automobile production and sales reached 12.826 million and 12.748 million units respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9%. [1] - Cangzhou Huayu Special Gas Technology Co., Ltd.'s annual 5,000 - ton electronic special gas project was officially put into production, with a 95% domestic - made silane gas production device and the largest single - set production capacity in the country. [1] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion. In the southwest production area, although the wet season was approaching, there was a lack of confidence in the future market, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and low willingness to resume production. For polysilicon, enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and some may have new capacity put into production, with an expected output of less than 100,000 tons. [1] - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained production reduction, and the resumption of production might be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but demand was weak, and the actual transaction price declined. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased on demand, and the downstream had low willingness to stock up at low prices. The photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, and falling prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, and components. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The current demand for industrial silicon has not improved, and the inventory has not been effectively digested. In the short term, the silicon price will continue to fluctuate weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the overall weak situation of industrial silicon spot prices remained unchanged. Downstream buyers mostly purchased on demand, and there was no new demand. Currently, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon is between 8,700 - 9,100 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is between 9,600 - 10,100 yuan/ton. On the futures side, the closing price of the main contract si2507 of industrial silicon futures yesterday was 8,130, a decrease of 1.87%. The intraday trading volume was 16,616 lots, with a total of 155,000 lots and a turnover of 8.519 billion yuan [1] Supply Side - Recently, the prices of silica and silicon coal in the raw material segment have weakened, reducing the production cost of manufacturers. With the approaching of the wet season and the resumption of production of previously shut - down manufacturers, the output may increase slightly. Traders are inquiring about goods, and spot - futures traders are actively quoting. Some low - priced goods have had small - volume transactions. The production in the Gansu production area is relatively stable, and the output of 97 - silicon continues to remain low. The short - term start - up is difficult to improve. The operating rate of medium - frequency furnaces is low, and the prices are still at a low level, making it difficult for manufacturers to resume production [1] Demand Side - The polysilicon market continues to operate weakly. Currently, the terminal demand is significantly weak, and downstream procurement is becoming more cautious. The weekly trading volume remains flat, and the market stalemate remains unchanged. The price of organic silicon is temporarily stable. After some large monomer manufacturers made a tentative price increase before the festival, they sold goods with a small discount, and the number of inquiries has increased. The price of aluminum alloy ingots fluctuates. Large manufacturers have slightly reduced their inventories, and enterprises with low inventories are more willing to hold prices, making the market circulation slightly looser [1] Inventory - On May 19, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 66,097 lots, a single - day decrease of 287 lots. The total inventory of industrial silicon remains at a high level [1]