Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market is expected to end its downward trend in November 2025 and enter a recovery phase, driven by steady demand release, reduced supply, and increased exports, leading to a price increase in early 2026 [1] Group 1: Demand Recovery - A new batch of urea export quotas totaling approximately 600,000 tons was issued in November 2025, boosting market activity [2] - In December 2025, domestic urea consumption reached around 5.38 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 27.49% and a year-on-year increase of 37.15% [2] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Urea inventories in domestic enterprises have decreased for three consecutive months, with December 2025 inventory at 1.0689 million tons, down from 1.5543 million tons in October [5] - The supply of urea has tightened due to maintenance shutdowns and environmental regulations, leading to a daily production drop to around 190,000 tons, a decrease of 5% [5] Group 3: Export Growth - Cumulative urea exports reached 4.6161 million tons in the first eleven months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1663.22% [6] - The announcement of a new urea tender by India for 1.5 million tons has positively impacted market confidence and prices [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term market demand is expected to fluctuate slightly, but long-term demand growth remains strong, particularly in the agricultural and industrial sectors [3] - Key factors influencing the market include the pace of new capacity coming online, export policy adjustments, and the speed of low-carbon transition [7]

国内尿素市场在2025年11月终结下行态势，开启回暖通道，在需求稳步释放、供应端减量支撑、出口增 量提振的多重利好因素共振下，于2025年年末收官阶段持续升温，并于2026年年初迎来"开门红"。截至 1月4日，国内尿素主流成交价已突破1700元(吨价，下同)，较2025年10月市场触底价上涨9%。 河南睿源新能化工经营负责人崔华杰分析称，在企业持续去库存的背景下，2025年12月尿素行业供应阶 段性收紧。一方面，西南地区气头尿素企业及华中部分企业集中进入停产检修周期，带来明显产能减 量；另一方面，局部区域环保预警升级，部分尿素装置被迫降负运行，叠加个别装置因故障临时检修， 国内尿素行业日产量一度跌至19万吨左右，降幅达5%。由于供应端收紧进一步刺激下游企业补库需 求，尿素企业新单量持续累积，企业挺价心态愈发坚定。与此同时，2025年12月仍处于储备需求周期， 下游储备补仓节奏对行情上行形成有力支撑。此外，2025年11月下达的部分出口配额货源于12月集中集 港发运，国内尿素市场可流通货源量进一步缩减，为尿素行情升温再添助力。 出口增长提振内外市场联动 据河南石化协会相关负责人介绍，2025年11月，新一批尿素 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Urea**: The domestic urea daily production continues to rise, but the domestic demand is still insufficient, and the fundamental driving force of urea is limited. The easing of China - India relations brings expectations of export growth. The short - term urea futures market will continue to be in a relatively strong state, but the upside is limited due to the price - stabilizing policy. It is not recommended to chase the rise blindly. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender results, China's participation in the supply, export policy dynamics, this week's inventory data, and spot trading conditions [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply level of soda ash is still high, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The fundamental situation of soda ash remains weak, and there is a lack of new driving forces in the futures market. It is expected that the short - term futures price will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to whether environmental protection restrictions will disrupt the supply side, the overall trend of the commodity market, and changes in macro - sentiment [1]. - **Glass**: The supply and demand contradiction of glass still exists, and there are no favorable factors in the market. The short - term downstream may stock up raw sheets before the environmental protection restrictions in early September, but the subsequent downstream processing enterprises may be affected by environmental protection restrictions, and the rigid demand for glass and enterprise shipments will be further suppressed. It is expected that the weak state of the glass futures price will continue. Attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection events on both supply and demand sides, glass spot trading conditions, the overall sentiment of the commodity market, and changes in macro - sentiment [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On August 19, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 3,573, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 50 valid forecasts. - On August 19, the daily output of the urea industry was 198,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 30,100 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate on this day was 85.70%, a 9.39% increase from 76.31% in the same period last year. - On August 19, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,730 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1,740 yuan/ton (+10), Hebei 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), Anhui 1,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Shanxi 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On August 19, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 11,020, an increase of 828 from the previous trading day, with 851 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,438, unchanged from the previous trading day. - On August 19, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were as follows: In North China, light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,350 yuan/ton; in Central China, light soda ash was 1,180 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in East China, light soda ash was 1,150 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in South China, light soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,450 yuan/ton; in Southwest China, light soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, light soda ash was 1,020 yuan/ton (-30), and heavy soda ash was 1,020 yuan/ton (-30). - On August 19, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 88.89%, down from 90.58% on the previous working day. - On August 19, the average price of the float glass market was 1,153 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the daily output of the industry was 159,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day [6][7]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including those of urea basis, soda ash basis, urea and soda ash main contract trading volume and open interest, urea 2601 - 2509 spread, soda ash 2601 - 2509 spread, urea and soda ash spot price trends, urea - methanol futures spread, and glass - soda ash futures spread. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [9][15][21]. Research Team Introduction - The resource product research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, who focuses on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [23].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the market conditions for four chemical products: soda ash, glass, caustic soda, and urea, focusing on their supply-demand dynamics and price trends for the first half of 2025 [1][2][3][4][5]. Soda Ash - The soda ash market is experiencing weak supply-demand dynamics, with downstream demand remaining sluggish and a significant drop in raw material coal prices leading to cost collapse [1][2]. - In the first half of 2025, soda ash production capacity increased by 2.4 million tons, bringing total capacity to over 40 million tons, the highest since 2010 [1][6]. - Despite seasonal maintenance and high summer temperatures affecting some operations, overall supply remains high, with production levels stable compared to the previous year [6]. - The market is expected to see continued capacity additions in the second half of 2025, primarily through natural soda processes, while ammonia soda processes are unlikely to see new projects due to high costs and environmental pressures [7]. Glass - The glass market fundamentals are relatively better, but the recovery in the real estate sector has been below expectations, leading to price declines [1][2][3]. - Since July, anti-involution policies have boosted market sentiment, resulting in a significant rebound in glass futures prices [3]. - The demand for photovoltaic glass has decreased significantly, while float glass demand remains relatively stable, indicating an overall contraction in demand [10]. - The glass industry is currently at a low point in terms of capacity and demand, with potential improvements expected in the second half of 2025, contingent on the implementation of anti-involution policies and mandatory capacity adjustments [16][17]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices surged at the beginning of the year due to tight supply-demand expectations, but have since faced downward pressure from falling coal prices and weak industrial demand [3][20]. - In the first half of 2025, caustic soda production capacity increased by 820,000 tons, leading to a significant price drop in May and June [20]. - The market is characterized by high inventory levels and limited demand from downstream sectors, particularly in non-aluminum industries [20][21]. Urea - The urea market has shown a less pronounced trend compared to other products, with significant fluctuations driven by pre-holiday stockpiling and spring planting demand [1][2][3]. - Urea production is projected to reach 70 million tons in 2025, with daily production exceeding 200,000 tons, indicating substantial supply pressure [23]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate between 1,600 to 1,850 yuan/ton, with a recommendation to buy on dips and sell on highs [35]. - The market faces challenges from high inventory levels and weak domestic demand, particularly during the agricultural off-season [24][25]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The overall inventory pressure in the chemical sector is significant, with social inventory around 5 million tons and a contango structure in the futures market indicating near-full delivery warehouse stocks [9]. - The anti-involution policies have had limited actual impact on supply, primarily affecting market sentiment rather than leading to substantial changes in production levels [8][29]. - The export market is expected to alleviate some domestic supply pressure, with monthly export volumes projected between 160,000 to 200,000 tons in the second half of 2025 [15]. Conclusion - The chemical industry is currently navigating a complex landscape characterized by weak demand, high inventory levels, and fluctuating prices across soda ash, glass, caustic soda, and urea. The implementation of anti-involution policies and potential improvements in export performance will be critical in shaping the market dynamics moving forward [32][33][34].