光大期货煤化工商品日报 二、市场信息 光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 3 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，主力 05 合约收盘价 1819 元/吨，跌幅 0.38%。现货市场多数 | 看涨 | | | 稳定，局部继续上涨。昨日山东、河南地区市场价格分别为 1890 元/吨、1860 元/吨，日环 | | | | 比均持平。基本面来看，尿素供应水平持续提升，昨日行业日产量 22.27 万吨，日环比增 0.13 | | | | 万吨。淡储货源也将逐步投放，供应压力将进一步提升。需求表现偏弱，尤其在价格持续上 | | | | 涨后中下游接受程度偏弱，昨日主流地区现货产销率仅有 5%～40%。但后续随着气温不断 | | | | 回暖及下游开工持续恢复，尿素农业及工业需求仍有释放空间。整体来看，尿素供需两旺预 | | | | 期不变，但厂家报价多已上涨至本月政策指导价水平，后续上行空间已非常有限。市场价格 | | | | 或仍有小幅波动，期货盘面也仍受全球能源价格上涨、国际化肥涨价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market is expected to end its downward trend in November 2025 and enter a recovery phase, driven by steady demand release, reduced supply, and increased exports, leading to a price increase in early 2026 [1] Group 1: Demand Recovery - A new batch of urea export quotas totaling approximately 600,000 tons was issued in November 2025, boosting market activity [2] - In December 2025, domestic urea consumption reached around 5.38 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 27.49% and a year-on-year increase of 37.15% [2] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Urea inventories in domestic enterprises have decreased for three consecutive months, with December 2025 inventory at 1.0689 million tons, down from 1.5543 million tons in October [5] - The supply of urea has tightened due to maintenance shutdowns and environmental regulations, leading to a daily production drop to around 190,000 tons, a decrease of 5% [5] Group 3: Export Growth - Cumulative urea exports reached 4.6161 million tons in the first eleven months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1663.22% [6] - The announcement of a new urea tender by India for 1.5 million tons has positively impacted market confidence and prices [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term market demand is expected to fluctuate slightly, but long-term demand growth remains strong, particularly in the agricultural and industrial sectors [3] - Key factors influencing the market include the pace of new capacity coming online, export policy adjustments, and the speed of low-carbon transition [7]

Group 1 - The domestic urea market is expected to end its downward trend in November 2025 and enter a recovery phase, driven by steady demand release, reduced supply, and increased exports, with prices rising to over 1700 yuan per ton by January 4, 2026, marking a 9% increase from the market's lowest point in October 2025 [1] - Urea prices in 2025 showed a significant reduction in volatility, with the futures market's volatility decreasing from 33.14% in 2024 to 22.45% in 2025, indicating effective market regulation through supply and price stabilization policies [1][2] - The total domestic urea consumption in December 2025 reached approximately 5.38 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 27.49% and a year-on-year increase of 37.15% [2] Group 2 - The supply of urea has been tightening, with inventories decreasing for three consecutive months, dropping from 155.43 million tons in October 2025 to 106.89 million tons in December 2025, alongside a production loss of approximately 111.05 million tons due to maintenance [4] - The industrial demand for urea is expected to grow steadily, with the automotive urea consumption surpassing 5.8 million tons in 2023, doubling since 2020, and projected to maintain an annual growth rate of 6% to 8% through 2026 [3] - The export volume of urea reached 4.62 million tons in the first eleven months of 2025, a staggering increase of 1663.22% year-on-year, with new export quotas alleviating domestic supply-demand imbalances [5] Group 3 - The market sentiment has been positively influenced by the announcement of new urea tenders, such as India's procurement of 1.5 million tons, which led to a rise in offshore prices and boosted domestic market confidence [5] - The long-term outlook for the urea market will depend on three core factors: the actual progress of new production capacity, the flexibility of export policies, and the pace of low-carbon transition, which could impact supply and profitability [6]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Urea**: The domestic urea daily production continues to rise, but the domestic demand is still insufficient, and the fundamental driving force of urea is limited. The easing of China - India relations brings expectations of export growth. The short - term urea futures market will continue to be in a relatively strong state, but the upside is limited due to the price - stabilizing policy. It is not recommended to chase the rise blindly. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender results, China's participation in the supply, export policy dynamics, this week's inventory data, and spot trading conditions [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply level of soda ash is still high, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The fundamental situation of soda ash remains weak, and there is a lack of new driving forces in the futures market. It is expected that the short - term futures price will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to whether environmental protection restrictions will disrupt the supply side, the overall trend of the commodity market, and changes in macro - sentiment [1]. - **Glass**: The supply and demand contradiction of glass still exists, and there are no favorable factors in the market. The short - term downstream may stock up raw sheets before the environmental protection restrictions in early September, but the subsequent downstream processing enterprises may be affected by environmental protection restrictions, and the rigid demand for glass and enterprise shipments will be further suppressed. It is expected that the weak state of the glass futures price will continue. Attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection events on both supply and demand sides, glass spot trading conditions, the overall sentiment of the commodity market, and changes in macro - sentiment [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On August 19, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 3,573, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 50 valid forecasts. - On August 19, the daily output of the urea industry was 198,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 30,100 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate on this day was 85.70%, a 9.39% increase from 76.31% in the same period last year. - On August 19, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,730 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1,740 yuan/ton (+10), Hebei 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), Anhui 1,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Shanxi 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On August 19, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 11,020, an increase of 828 from the previous trading day, with 851 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,438, unchanged from the previous trading day. - On August 19, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were as follows: In North China, light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,350 yuan/ton; in Central China, light soda ash was 1,180 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in East China, light soda ash was 1,150 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in South China, light soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,450 yuan/ton; in Southwest China, light soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, light soda ash was 1,020 yuan/ton (-30), and heavy soda ash was 1,020 yuan/ton (-30). - On August 19, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 88.89%, down from 90.58% on the previous working day. - On August 19, the average price of the float glass market was 1,153 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the daily output of the industry was 159,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day [6][7]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including those of urea basis, soda ash basis, urea and soda ash main contract trading volume and open interest, urea 2601 - 2509 spread, soda ash 2601 - 2509 spread, urea and soda ash spot price trends, urea - methanol futures spread, and glass - soda ash futures spread. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [9][15][21]. Research Team Introduction - The resource product research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, who focuses on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [23].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the market conditions for four chemical products: soda ash, glass, caustic soda, and urea, focusing on their supply-demand dynamics and price trends for the first half of 2025 [1][2][3][4][5]. Soda Ash - The soda ash market is experiencing weak supply-demand dynamics, with downstream demand remaining sluggish and a significant drop in raw material coal prices leading to cost collapse [1][2]. - In the first half of 2025, soda ash production capacity increased by 2.4 million tons, bringing total capacity to over 40 million tons, the highest since 2010 [1][6]. - Despite seasonal maintenance and high summer temperatures affecting some operations, overall supply remains high, with production levels stable compared to the previous year [6]. - The market is expected to see continued capacity additions in the second half of 2025, primarily through natural soda processes, while ammonia soda processes are unlikely to see new projects due to high costs and environmental pressures [7]. Glass - The glass market fundamentals are relatively better, but the recovery in the real estate sector has been below expectations, leading to price declines [1][2][3]. - Since July, anti-involution policies have boosted market sentiment, resulting in a significant rebound in glass futures prices [3]. - The demand for photovoltaic glass has decreased significantly, while float glass demand remains relatively stable, indicating an overall contraction in demand [10]. - The glass industry is currently at a low point in terms of capacity and demand, with potential improvements expected in the second half of 2025, contingent on the implementation of anti-involution policies and mandatory capacity adjustments [16][17]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices surged at the beginning of the year due to tight supply-demand expectations, but have since faced downward pressure from falling coal prices and weak industrial demand [3][20]. - In the first half of 2025, caustic soda production capacity increased by 820,000 tons, leading to a significant price drop in May and June [20]. - The market is characterized by high inventory levels and limited demand from downstream sectors, particularly in non-aluminum industries [20][21]. Urea - The urea market has shown a less pronounced trend compared to other products, with significant fluctuations driven by pre-holiday stockpiling and spring planting demand [1][2][3]. - Urea production is projected to reach 70 million tons in 2025, with daily production exceeding 200,000 tons, indicating substantial supply pressure [23]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate between 1,600 to 1,850 yuan/ton, with a recommendation to buy on dips and sell on highs [35]. - The market faces challenges from high inventory levels and weak domestic demand, particularly during the agricultural off-season [24][25]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The overall inventory pressure in the chemical sector is significant, with social inventory around 5 million tons and a contango structure in the futures market indicating near-full delivery warehouse stocks [9]. - The anti-involution policies have had limited actual impact on supply, primarily affecting market sentiment rather than leading to substantial changes in production levels [8][29]. - The export market is expected to alleviate some domestic supply pressure, with monthly export volumes projected between 160,000 to 200,000 tons in the second half of 2025 [15]. Conclusion - The chemical industry is currently navigating a complex landscape characterized by weak demand, high inventory levels, and fluctuating prices across soda ash, glass, caustic soda, and urea. The implementation of anti-involution policies and potential improvements in export performance will be critical in shaping the market dynamics moving forward [32][33][34].