凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行，本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精 英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 对于美联储降息的外部影响，刘纪鹏指出，从政策面来看，美联储降息和中国货币政策之间的联系一定是正面的。按特朗普的预计，美联储利率早就应该 降，他的目标是起码要降到1.25%-1.5%，不是现在的4.25%-4.5%。那么美联储降息就成了牵动全世界经济发展的热点。 中国政法大学商学院原院长刘纪鹏 针对"经济基本面未大幅改善，股市为何上涨"的疑问，中国政法大学商学院原院长刘纪鹏表示，不能仅将股市视为被动反映经济的"晴雨表"，更应看到其 作为"启动引擎"的主动作用。当前市场上涨的核心是"信心经济"的体现，在国家全力提振资本市场的背景下，充足的信心本身就能推动市场向好。 【 热门视频推荐 】 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ 刘纪鹏认为，这对A股是"机遇远大于挑战"。他指出，美国股市已处于历史高位，而美联储开启降息周期将驱使全球资本寻找新的"价值洼地"。此时初现上 涨态势的A股吸引力大增，迎来了吸引外资的绝佳时机。他建议，应借此东风进一步 ...

9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行，本届论坛以"新格局 ·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 近期A股市场犹如春潮涌动，指数节节攀升逼近3900点关口，点燃了投资者的热情。在本次论坛的 闭幕对话环节，中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长、国家一级教授吴晓求，中国政法大学商学院原 院长刘纪鹏通过精彩纷呈的思想碰撞，透过市场表象洞察深层逻辑，为论坛画上了圆满的句号。 牛市是否真的来了？是哪些因素推动了股市上涨？两位专家观点鲜明，论坛现场既有生动的比喻、 扎实的数据，又有妙趣横生的激辩，为投资者勾勒出一幅兼具理性与信心的市场发展图景。 "A股牛市不是真的要来了，是已经来了，实际上早在两三个月前便已开启。"论坛上，吴晓求的话 掷地有声。他坚定地表示，"未来市场站上4000点不存在悬念，尽管近期出现短期波动，但长期向好 的大趋势不会改变"。 但也有部分市场参与者担忧本轮牛市可能"昙花一现"，对此，吴晓求强调，行情的延续性具备坚实 的内在逻辑支撑。 回顾A股历史，牛短熊长和暴涨暴跌曾是显著特征，吴晓求分析，这一现象根源在于过去市场结构 失衡、缺乏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent A-share market rally is indicative of a bull market that has already begun, with expectations of the index surpassing 4000 points in the future, despite short-term fluctuations [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 3900-point mark, raising questions about the sustainability of this bull market [2][3]. - Historical patterns of short bull and long bear markets have shifted due to structural reforms and improved growth dynamics in the market [3][12]. Factors Driving Market Growth - Key factors contributing to the current market growth include: - Reforms on the asset side and adjustments in the structure of listed companies, leading to long-term growth potential [3][12]. - Improvements in liquidity, supported by the central bank's focus on the capital market and the introduction of structural monetary policy tools [3][4]. - Institutional reforms aimed at transitioning the market from a financing-driven model to a wealth management-oriented investment market [4][12]. Confidence in the Market - The current market rally is characterized as a "confidence economy," where investor confidence plays a crucial role in driving market performance, rather than solely reflecting economic fundamentals [8][9]. - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen as a positive external influence, potentially attracting foreign investment to the A-share market [9]. Long-term Outlook - The market is expected to enter a "slow bull" phase, supported by strong policy initiatives and a collaborative effort from various sectors [7][12]. - The recent market performance, including an 800-point increase over four months, is attributed to a combination of policy support and market dynamics [7][12]. Institutional and Structural Reforms - The reforms in market rules and regulations are aimed at enhancing investor confidence and creating reasonable expectations for market performance [4][12]. - The central bank's liquidity support mechanisms, such as the "convenience swap" system, are designed to bolster the financial stability of non-bank institutions [7]. Market Interaction and Humor - The forum featured engaging discussions between experts, highlighting the interplay between stock market performance and consumer spending, with humor adding to the dialogue [16].

凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行，本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精 英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 中国政法大学商学院原院长刘纪鹏 针对"经济基本面未大幅改善，股市为何上涨"的疑问，中国政法大学商学院原院长刘纪鹏表示，不能仅将股市视为被动反映经济的"晴雨表"，更应看到其作 为"启动引擎"的主动作用。当前市场上涨的核心是"信心经济"的体现，在国家全力提振资本市场的背景下，充足的信心本身就能推动市场向好。 对于美联储降息的外部影响，刘纪鹏指出，从政策面来看，美联储降息和中国货币政策之间的联系一定是正面的。按特朗普的预计，美联储利率早就应该 降，他的目标是起码要降到1.25%-1.5%，不是现在的4.25%-4.5%。那么美联储降息就成了牵动全世界经济发展的热点。 刘纪鹏认为，这对A股是"机遇远大于挑战"。他指出，美国股市已处于历史高位，而美联储开启降息周期将驱使全球资本寻找新的"价值洼地"。此时初现上 涨态势的A股吸引力大增，迎来了吸引外资的绝佳时机。他建议，应借此东风进一步扩大开放，如提高QFII额度，引导外资成为市场下一 ...

Core Insights - The current Chinese venture capital market is at a turning point, characterized by both a cyclical bottoming and a deepening structural transformation, necessitating adaptability to capture opportunities amid uncertainty [1] - The 36Kr WAVES New Era 2025 conference gathered top investors, innovative entrepreneurs, and scholars to discuss cutting-edge topics such as AI innovation and globalization [1] Group 1: Historical Context - The dialogue featured insights from industry veteran Li Wei, who played a pivotal role in designing China's first convertible bond in 1992, marking a significant moment in the development of the capital market [3][4] - Li Wei emphasized the importance of understanding fundamental principles in entrepreneurship, drawing parallels between the design of convertible bonds and current venture capital practices [5][6] Group 2: Industry Evolution - The venture capital industry in China has experienced significant ups and downs over the past 30 years, with key phases including the initial excitement in the late 1990s and subsequent challenges in the early 2000s [9][10] - Li Wei identified three key phrases to describe the industry's journey: "ups and downs," "turning points," and "light at the end of the tunnel," reflecting the cyclical nature of the market [9] Group 3: Current Trends and Future Outlook - There is a growing confidence in the industry, driven by increased government maturity and a shift towards domestic technology development in response to global tech restrictions [11][12] - Li Wei noted that the recovery of the venture capital market is more about investor confidence than mere index performance, highlighting the need for a supportive environment for innovation [12][14] - The success of companies like DeepSeek illustrates the potential for software innovation to thrive despite hardware challenges, reinforcing optimism for China's tech future [20][21] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Li Wei advocated for a more flexible approach to state-owned enterprises, suggesting that they should operate according to market principles to enhance efficiency and innovation [22][23] - The importance of nurturing a vibrant private sector was emphasized, with a call for other regions to learn from Zhejiang's focus on supporting private enterprises [21][22]