凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行，本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精 英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 对于美联储降息的外部影响，刘纪鹏指出，从政策面来看，美联储降息和中国货币政策之间的联系一定是正面的。按特朗普的预计，美联储利率早就应该 降，他的目标是起码要降到1.25%-1.5%，不是现在的4.25%-4.5%。那么美联储降息就成了牵动全世界经济发展的热点。 中国政法大学商学院原院长刘纪鹏 针对"经济基本面未大幅改善，股市为何上涨"的疑问，中国政法大学商学院原院长刘纪鹏表示，不能仅将股市视为被动反映经济的"晴雨表"，更应看到其 作为"启动引擎"的主动作用。当前市场上涨的核心是"信心经济"的体现，在国家全力提振资本市场的背景下，充足的信心本身就能推动市场向好。 【 热门视频推荐 】 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ 刘纪鹏认为，这对A股是"机遇远大于挑战"。他指出，美国股市已处于历史高位，而美联储开启降息周期将驱使全球资本寻找新的"价值洼地"。此时初现上 涨态势的A股吸引力大增，迎来了吸引外资的绝佳时机。他建议，应借此东风进一步 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is gradually showing a slow bull trend one year after the "924" policy was introduced, indicating that it remains a value investment opportunity [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The number of new stock accounts is increasing, with more "post-00s" and "post-10s" entering the market, suggesting a shift towards a younger investor base [1] - The A-share market is compared to the US market, where the US stock market recently reached a historical high of 46,000 points, while the A-share market's recent high was only about 3,899 points, highlighting a significant gap [2] - China's GDP growth rate is significantly higher than that of the US, which theoretically should allow for a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in the A-share market [2] Group 2: Valuation Insights - The current P/E ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index is approximately 15 times, while the overall market P/E ratio is around 30 times, including high-valuation sectors like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [2] - The overall P/E ratio of the US stock market exceeds 30 times, particularly for high-performing stocks, indicating that A-shares could be undervalued [2] - Given China's economic growth potential, a P/E ratio below 40 times for A-shares is considered reasonable, with further upward potential [2] Group 3: Investment Considerations - The younger generation is encouraged to explore the capital market as a means to increase property income, but they must also be cautious of financial risks [2][3] - Historical experiences of successful investors often include significant risks, emphasizing the importance of risk management in capital market investments [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is gradually showing a slow bull trend one year after the "924" policy was introduced, indicating that it remains a value lowland for investors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The number of new accounts is increasing, with more "post-00s" and "post-10s" entering the stock market, reflecting a shift towards a younger investor base [1] - The A-share market is compared to the US market, where the US stock market recently reached a historical high of 46,000 points, while the A-share market's recent high was only about 3,899 points, highlighting a significant gap [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Valuation - China's GDP growth rate is significantly higher than that of the US, suggesting that the A-share market should theoretically enjoy a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio [2] - The current P/E ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index is approximately 15 times, while the overall market P/E ratio is around 30 times, indicating that A-shares are undervalued compared to US stocks, which have an overall P/E ratio exceeding 30 times [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The potential for the A-share market is substantial, with a reasonable P/E ratio of up to 40 times, considering China's economic growth [2] - Young investors are encouraged to participate in the capital market as it is seen as a crucial platform for increasing property income, but they must also be cautious of financial risks [2][3]

"9.24"行情一周年，政策实施效果与市场生态发生了哪些变化？中国政法大学商学院教授、资本市场知 名专家刘纪鹏先生直播解读。详情>> 针对近期大量"00后"跑步入场A股的现象，刘纪鹏教授指出，中国资本市场本身仍是一个年轻的市场。 改革开放45年以来，居民财产性收入的主要载体一度是房地产市场。但目前，从国际比较看，中国房地 产价格已处于相对高位，不再追求价格上涨。因此，需要寻找新的资产市场，而股市正是这一重要的价 值洼地。 刘纪鹏分析称，中国经济长期保持较高成长性，过去15到20年间GDP增速常年为美国的两倍以上，但当 前A股市场的市盈率却低于美股。他认为，作为一个成长型市场，A股在40倍甚至略高的市盈率水平下 仍属合理，市场活力应当更加活跃。 刘纪鹏表示，中国资本市场蕴藏着巨大潜力，正等待"90后""00后"一代去开拓。但同时，他也特别提醒 年轻投资者，务必理性控制资金杠杆，避免满仓杠杆操作，充分认识到市场风险。"大家都是从年轻人 过来的，谁都吃过资本市场的亏。每一个成功人士的背后，都有着被风险打爆的经历。"他期望新一代 投资者既能把握资本市场带来的财产性收入机遇，也要重视风险防控，避免重蹈过去一些投资者走过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the Hong Kong stock market has led to increased investor interest in certain small-cap stocks, particularly Energy International Investment Holdings (00353.HK), which has shown impressive financial performance despite its small size [1][3]. Financial Performance - Over the past twelve months, the company reported revenue of approximately HKD 152 million, while achieving a net profit of HKD 256 million, indicating a net profit significantly higher than revenue, a rarity among Hong Kong-listed companies [3]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) has dropped to below 1.5 times, reflecting a very low valuation, with a market capitalization maintained in the range of HKD 300 million to HKD 400 million [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the fiscal year 2025 has risen to HKD 0.24, compared to HKD 0.056 in the same period of 2024, showcasing a multiple growth in profit levels within a year [3]. Investment Logic - Supporters argue that the company's core business linked to energy logistics has stable market demand, combined with the cash flow characteristics of its insurance brokerage business, providing a degree of defensiveness [4]. - Critics caution that the profit statement may include non-recurring income, suggesting that the true profitability could be overstated if one-time items are excluded [4]. - The company has low trading activity and limited institutional coverage, which results in low stock price elasticity, making its undervaluation more pronounced [4]. Business Overview - Energy International Investment Holdings transitioned its business focus from mineral resources to energy logistics and insurance around 2010, with its terminal and storage services primarily catering to the liquid chemical and oil-related industries [4]. - The company's operations are significantly influenced by international energy price fluctuations and regional demand, indicating a cyclical nature [4]. - The insurance brokerage business contributes stable cash flow, supplementing the overall profitability of the company [4]. Market Outlook - Overall, Energy International Investment Holdings is characterized as a small-cap stock with extremely low valuation, attracting attention due to its impressive profit data and low PE ratio [5]. - The market is generally awaiting further evidence to confirm the sustainability of its profits, which will be crucial for the company's valuation recovery [5]. - The company's ability to explore new growth avenues beyond its core business and maintain stable shareholder returns will be key factors influencing its long-term valuation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The most profitable investment in the first half of the year was the Russian Ruble, which appreciated by 41% against the US dollar by June 30, 2023, largely due to a high base interest rate of 20% in Russia [5][6]. Group 1: Investment Trends - The capital that left the US market primarily followed three paths: returning to its origin, filling value gaps, and flowing into speculative markets [6]. - The South Korean stock market ranked second in performance, attributed to its low average price-to-earnings ratio of around 10 times, making it an attractive investment despite political instability [7]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index grew by 20% in the first half of the year, influenced by major companies like Meituan, JD.com, and Alibaba, which have significant weight in the index [8]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The Hong Kong market is seen as a better investment alternative compared to South Korea, Spain, and Germany, especially after a decline from 2020 to 2023, leading to attractive valuation levels [8]. - Some Hong Kong companies maintain high cost-performance ratios, while others, particularly the so-called "four little dragons" of consumption, have inflated valuations [9]. - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,500 points, indicating potential for a bull market [10]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - A conservative investment strategy favors low price-to-earnings ratio stocks, particularly large commercial banks, as global liquidity is expected to ease [11]. - The real estate sector remains a critical issue, with predictions that it may bottom out between 2025 and 2026 based on historical data [12]. - Gold prices increased by 26% in the first half of the year, and while there is potential for further gains, caution is advised against leveraging investments in gold due to its speculative nature [13][14].

Group 1 - Mitsui Sumitomo Financial's stock price increased significantly by 3.08%, reaching a historical high during intraday trading [1] - The strong performance of Mitsui Sumitomo Financial is supported by the overall positive trend in the Japanese stock market, driven by an improving macroeconomic environment and a trade agreement between Japan and the US [1] - Corporate governance reforms in Japan are encouraging companies to optimize their strategies, including stock buybacks and increased dividends, which enhances market confidence [1] Group 2 - The low price-to-earnings ratio of the Japanese stock market is attracting foreign investment, with Mitsui Sumitomo Financial benefiting from this influx [1] - Japanese companies have reported earnings that exceed expectations, boosting market confidence and providing strong support for Mitsui Sumitomo Financial's stock price [1] - Despite the positive market performance, there are concerns about potential overheating, and investors are advised to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and long-term growth potential [2]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,518, down 0.08% for the day but up 22.13% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ended at 8,861, decreasing by 0.09% daily and up 21.44% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.56% to 5,418, with a year-to-date increase of 21.95%[3] Sector Performance - Biopharmaceutical stocks surged, with Kanghua rising 14.5% and other companies like Kangfang Bio and Baiji Shenzhou increasing over 10%[9] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Meituan up over 1% while Baidu fell over 3%[9] - Li Auto's stock increased by over 9% following the announcement of pre-orders for its new model priced between 350,000 to 400,000 RMB[9] U.S. Market Highlights - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.74%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.54%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.52%, all reaching new closing highs[9] - Nvidia's stock rose by 0.95%, while Microsoft increased by 1.20%, both achieving historical closing highs[9] - Netflix reported a net profit of $3.125 billion for Q2 2025, a 45.6% year-on-year increase, and raised its revenue and profit margin guidance for the year[9] Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales rose by 0.6% in June, exceeding expectations, primarily driven by a rebound in auto sales[12] - The U.S. unemployment claims fell to 221,000, indicating a resilient job market despite a slowdown in hiring[12] - U.S. tariff revenues surged to $87.2 billion in the first half of the year, with June alone accounting for $26.6 billion, four times the usual level[12]

Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong innovative drug stocks have surged, with companies like Lepu Biopharma-B, Connaught-B, and Kanyan Biopharma rising over 11% [1] - Other notable gainers include Sangfor Biopharma, Kelun-Botai Biopharma, and BeiGene, which increased by over 8% [1] - Various ETFs related to innovative drugs and healthcare in Hong Kong have also seen gains exceeding 3% [1] Group 2: Policy and Market Trends - The National Healthcare Security Administration has initiated the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, focusing on mature "old drugs" while excluding innovative drugs from this round [3] - The Chinese biotech sector is entering a structural revaluation phase, with the overall market capitalization of Chinese biotech companies at only 14%-15% of their US counterparts, despite contributing nearly 33% to global innovation [4] - The innovative drug sector is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, driven by policy support and increasing global competitiveness [5] Group 3: Company Developments - China Biopharmaceutical announced the acquisition of the remaining 95.09% stake in LaNova for $501 million, marking a significant milestone in the Chinese pharmaceutical industry [4] - Companies like BeiGene and Hengrui Medicine are positioned for growth, with BeiGene expected to achieve full profitability by 2025 and Hengrui entering a rapid growth phase in domestic sales [5][6] - Innovative drug companies are anticipated to see improved fundamentals, with overseas orders and performance beginning to recover [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a shift in consumer and investment preferences towards silver and platinum as alternatives to gold, driven by significant price increases and industrial demand [1][2][3] - In the first half of 2025, spot silver prices rose over 25%, while platinum prices surged nearly 50%, both outpacing gold [1][2] - The demand for silver and platinum jewelry has increased, particularly among younger consumers, as these metals offer a more affordable option compared to gold [2][3] Group 2 - The rapid price increase of silver and platinum is attributed to supply shortages and the substitution effect from gold, with industrial demand for silver growing in sectors like electric vehicles, AI, and semiconductors [3][4] - The global supply of platinum decreased by 10% in Q1 2025, while demand rose by 10%, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap [3] - Market expectations of a prolonged interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical risks are contributing to the rising prices of precious metals [4]