Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar is currently trading around 1.15, with a slight decline of 0.09% from the previous close of 1.1569, influenced by rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] - The cost of credit default swaps (CDS) for European high-yield bonds has significantly decreased, with the iTraxx Europe Crossover Index dropping 3 basis points to 278 basis points, marking a one-month low [1] - The decline in CDS costs is primarily driven by a substantial downward revision in US non-farm payroll data, which has strengthened market expectations for an upcoming easing cycle by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - If the euro breaks above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1645, it may rise further to 1.1700, with subsequent resistance levels at 1.1800 and the yearly high of 1.1830 [2] - Conversely, if the euro falls below the 50-day simple moving average at 1.1576, it could drop to 1.1550 and potentially test the key level of 1.1500, with the next significant area being the August low of 1.1391 [2]

Group 1 - Recent economic data indicates a resurgence of inflation in the U.S., coupled with concerns over the potential impact of the upcoming "reciprocal tariffs" policy from the Trump administration and signs of weak consumer spending [1] - The US Credit Fear Gauge has risen to its most alarming level since August of last year, reflecting a sharp decline in risk appetite within the financial markets [1] - The Markit CDX North America High Yield Index has continued its downward trend, falling 0.6 points to 105.14, indicating an increase in credit default risk and the worst performance in seven months [1] Group 2 - As risk appetite declines, risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies have seen significant weakness, driven by heightened concerns over the impending "reciprocal tariffs" [2] - Major U.S. stock indices experienced substantial declines, with the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping nearly 3% in a single day, marking a "Black Friday" for the markets [2] - The "Magnificent 7" tech giants collectively fell 2.95% this week, with Nvidia experiencing a weekly decline of 6.82% [2] Group 3 - The core PCE, a key inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve, showed a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, the largest rise in a year, with a year-over-year increase of 2.8%, both exceeding previous values and economist expectations [3] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped to a two-year low, exacerbating concerns over sustained pressure on consumer spending amid escalating trade tensions [6] - The expectation of "stagflation" has significantly increased, with the long-term inflation expectations reaching a 32-year high, driven by tariff impacts [6]