编者按 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，市场正在寻找新的方向。 面对宏观环境的变化、产业格局的调整，投资者需要穿透短期波动，看清中长期的主线。这不容易，但 值得尝试。 为此，中信保诚基金推出"2026，预见"系列，围绕宏观、固收、固收+、权益、商品、红利、周期、科 技八个领域，分享我们的研究和思考。 我们不预测市场，而是梳理逻辑；不给出答案，而是提供视角。希望这些内容能帮助您在做投资决策 时，多一份参考。 本系列共八篇，将陆续发布。感谢您的关注。 当市场的时钟拨向2026年，一个清晰的共识正在机构投资者中形成：以纯债资产为单一核心的"舒适"配 置时代或已然落幕。这并非源于债市本身的危机，而是宏观图景、政策逻辑与资产供需结构深刻变迁下 的必然结果。面对利率中枢的长期性下移与收益来源的结构性收窄，投资策略的升级不再是选择题，而 是生存题。2026年资产配置的主旋律，或是从"债市阿尔法"的挖掘，全面转向以"固收+"为枢纽的多资 产动态平衡能力的构建。 一、规则重塑：从"持有到期"到"平衡阿尔法" 纯债投资的传统收益来源无外乎票息与资本利得。然而，当前这两大支柱均面临显著挑战，其风险收益 比已发生根本性变化。 首先， ...

Core Viewpoint - E Fund's Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF has announced a dividend of 0.1 yuan per 10 fund shares, which was realized on November 14, highlighting the fund's commitment to providing returns in a low-interest-rate environment [1] Summary by Categories Dividend Information - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF has implemented four dividend distributions this year, totaling 0.48 yuan per 10 fund shares [1] - An investor holding 10,000 shares since the beginning of the year would have received a total dividend of 480 yuan [1] Fund Management - E Fund is the only company in the industry that offers all its dividend ETFs at a low fee rate, with a management fee of 0.15% per year for its dividend value ETFs, Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF, and other dividend index products [1] - This low-cost structure aims to help investors seize investment opportunities in dividend assets [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) has announced and distributed its dividend commitment, providing a significant cash flow to investors during the low interest rate environment [1] - The ETF distributed a dividend of 0.14 yuan per 10 fund shares, with a total cumulative dividend of 0.48 yuan per 10 fund shares for the year, which translates to 480 yuan for an investor holding 10,000 shares since the beginning of the year [1] - The ETF has maintained a consistent quarterly dividend distribution schedule throughout the year, with distributions occurring in February, May, August, and November [3] Group 2 - E Fund is noted as the only fund company that implements low fee rates for all its dividend ETFs, including the Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545), with a management fee rate of 0.15% per year [5] - Investors seeking regular cash flow can consider E Fund's "Monthly Dividend" products, which allow for potential monthly dividend income by combining different dividend ETFs [3] - The connection fund corresponding to the Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF also follows the same dividend distribution rhythm, reinforcing the attractiveness of these investment products [3]

Core Insights - The investment landscape in A-shares is showing signs of strength as 2025 approaches its conclusion, with investors seeking opportunities amid market fluctuations [1] - Looking ahead, it is crucial to grasp relative certainty in the face of changing market dynamics, with a positive long-term outlook for A-share investments despite various disruptive factors [1] Dividend Assets - In a low interest rate environment, dividend assets exhibit significant appeal due to their high dividend yields, which are attractive compared to declining returns from other interest-sensitive products [3][4] - The dividend yield for the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment Index stands at 4.29% and 5.75%, respectively, both exceeding the yields of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index [3][4] Long-term Performance - Dividend assets have not only attracted attention recently but have also demonstrated strong long-term performance, with the CSI Dividend Index rising 465.17% since 2005, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index during the same period [5][7] New Fund Launch - The newly launched Jianxin Dividend Select Mixed Fund aims to capitalize on dividend asset opportunities, with a stock allocation of 60-95% and a minimum of 80% of non-cash fund assets invested in dividend-related stocks [7][8] - The fund will adopt a dual-market strategy, investing in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks to leverage the advantages of each market, particularly in terms of dividend yield and valuation [8] Investment Strategy - The fund will utilize a quantitative investment strategy, focusing on high-quality stocks with stable historical dividends or strong future dividend potential, while also considering growth and valuation metrics [8][9] - The fund manager, Jiang Yanze, emphasizes a top-down investment research framework that incorporates macroeconomic factors, liquidity conditions, and market sentiment to identify investment opportunities [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and stock exchanges are promoting the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, which is expected to stabilize and activate the capital market, making dividend assets an important investment direction [1][2] - The CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) has seen a slight decline of 0.04% as of September 26, 2025, with Pingmei Shenhua (601666) leading the gains at 5.28% [1] - The trading volume of the State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) was 30.70 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.65% [1] Group 2 - The CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index tracks 100 listed companies with high cash dividend yields and stable dividends, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend securities among state-owned enterprises [2] - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index accounted for 16.84% of the index, with China COSCO Shipping (601919) having the highest weight at 2.36% [2][4] - The ETF is closely linked to the performance of the CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, indicating its focus on high-dividend yielding stocks [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - Dividend assets are characterized by stable performance and sustainable cash flow, providing investors with consistent high dividend returns, making them attractive investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Dividend Asset Characteristics - Dividend assets offer higher dividend yield levels, sustainable cash flow, robust financial structures, and maintenance capital expenditures [1] - The average cash dividend payout ratio for Hong Kong stocks from 2017 to 2024 is 44%, significantly higher than the 36% for A-shares [1] - The dividend yield of the Hang Seng Composite Index is 2.9%, compared to 1.9% for the Wind All A-Share Index [1] Group 2: Valuation and Sector Distribution - The valuation levels of dividend assets in Hong Kong are relatively lower, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index PE and PB at 7.2 times and 0.6 times, respectively, compared to 7.9 times and 0.8 times for the CSI Dividend Total Return Index [1] - The proportion of high dividend assets in Hong Kong is higher, with a more diverse industry distribution, while A-shares predominantly feature high dividend assets in sectors like banking and petrochemicals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for stable returns has led to an increased interest in dividend assets, which has enhanced their investment value in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of August 20 this year, 87.5% of the 256 dividend indices in the A-share market have risen, indicating strong market interest in dividend assets [1]. - The active buying amount for dividend-related ETF products reached 198.6 billion yuan, accounting for 87.74% of the total buying amount for strategy index ETFs, reflecting high market recognition and active positioning towards dividend assets [1]. - A total of 35 new dividend indices have been launched this year, covering various market capitalizations and strategy factors, indicating a rapid response to market demand for high-dividend, stable-return assets [2]. Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's action plan aims to promote the development of more dividend, low-volatility, and value strategy index ETFs, providing clear policy signals for the introduction of new indices [2]. - Regulatory guidance has been issued to encourage listed companies to strengthen their dividend awareness and standardize dividend behavior, promoting a healthy market ecosystem [5]. Group 3: Corporate Actions - Companies like Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co., Ltd. have announced significant dividend plans, such as a 1.71 billion yuan interim profit distribution for 2025, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [6]. - The enhancement of dividend capabilities is viewed as a long-term endeavor for companies, requiring a balance between retained earnings and dividend payouts to meet both development needs and investor expectations [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing improvement of the dividend index investment ecosystem is expected to provide diverse investment targets, guiding funds towards companies with stable dividend capabilities and excellent financial performance [4]. - Enhanced transparency in index compilation and publication will enable investors to better understand market dynamics and make more rational investment decisions, promoting the long-term value investment philosophy [4].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for stable returns has led to an increased interest in dividend assets, which has enhanced their investment value in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of August 20 this year, 87.5% of the 256 dividend indices in the A-share market have risen, indicating strong market interest in dividend assets [1]. - The active buying amount for dividend-related ETF products reached 198.6 billion yuan, accounting for 87.74% of the total buying amount for strategy index ETFs, reflecting high market recognition and active positioning towards dividend assets [1]. - A total of 35 new dividend indices have been launched this year, covering various market capitalizations and strategy factors, indicating a rapid response to market demand [2]. Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's action plan aims to promote the development of more dividend, low volatility, and growth strategy index ETFs, providing clear policy signals for the introduction of new indices [2]. - Regulatory guidance has been issued to encourage listed companies to strengthen their dividend awareness and standardize dividend behavior, promoting a healthy market ecosystem [5]. Group 3: Corporate Actions - Companies are increasingly focusing on enhancing the quality and sustainability of their dividends, with examples like Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co., Ltd. planning a mid-term profit distribution of 1.71 billion yuan for 2025 [6]. - The improvement of dividend capabilities is viewed as a long-term endeavor, requiring companies to balance retained earnings and dividend payouts while ensuring stable business growth [6]. Group 4: Investment Ecosystem - The expansion of precise dividend indices is expected to enhance asset pricing efficiency and support the innovation of related financial products, improving the risk management system in capital markets [3]. - The ongoing development of the dividend index investment ecosystem is anticipated to provide investors with a wider range of investment targets, aligning with different risk preferences and investment needs [4].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily discusses the highway, port, and power industries, emphasizing their investment frameworks and dividend asset characteristics [1][20]. Key Points and Arguments Highway Industry - **Business Model**: The highway business model is robust, driven by passenger and freight traffic. Passenger traffic benefits from the increase in car ownership and self-driving tourism, while freight traffic remains dominant despite a slight decline due to the "road-to-rail" policy [1][4]. - **Revenue Growth**: From 2011 to 2019, the average revenue growth rate for the highway industry was 8.5%, outpacing the GDP growth rate of 7.4% during the same period, indicating strong resilience [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: High dividend strategies are favored in weak markets, highlighting the defensive nature of highway assets. Prioritizing high-dividend, high-yield highway assets is a crucial investment strategy [1][7][9]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The optimization of toll road policies at the national level presents systemic opportunities for valuation improvement in the highway sector [2]. Port Industry - **Cargo Throughput Growth**: The port industry has seen steady growth in cargo throughput, benefiting from supply-side integration and rational production management. The average growth rate of cargo throughput over the past decade is between 3% and 4% [12]. - **Pricing Flexibility**: Port charges are flexible and can be adjusted based on market demand, unlike highway tolls, which are more rigid [14]. - **Investment Characteristics**: Ports are characterized by perpetual operation and dynamic pricing capabilities, making them attractive stable growth assets [15]. Power Industry - **Profitability Framework**: The hydroelectric power industry has a stable profitability framework with a clear cost structure, ensuring steady net profit generation. Companies like Yangtze Power commit to maintaining high dividend rates [21]. - **Nuclear Power Growth**: The nuclear power sector is in a clear growth cycle, with plans for significant new installations, supporting long-term profitability and dividend potential [24][25]. - **Gas Industry Dynamics**: The gas industry is transitioning towards maturity, with decreasing capital expenditures expected to enhance dividend levels as projects mature [29][31]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Recommendations**: Recommended investment targets include high-dividend companies such as China Merchants Highway, Shandong Highway, and Ninghu Highway, which have shown strong performance in shareholder returns [9][11]. - **Future Potential**: Potential investment opportunities in the highway sector include Sichuan Chengyu and Ganyue Highway, which are expected to replicate successful growth patterns seen in other companies [11]. - **Governance and Stability**: The water and nuclear power sectors exhibit strong governance and stable dividend levels, making them attractive for long-term investment [20][21]. Conclusion The conference call highlights the resilience and growth potential of the highway, port, and power industries, emphasizing the importance of dividend strategies and regulatory environments in shaping investment opportunities. The focus on high-dividend assets reflects a broader trend towards stable, income-generating investments in the current market landscape.

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds to enhance investment success [2] - High dividend yield does not equate to low risk, and pursuing high dividend rates may lead to "value traps" [3] - Historical high dividends do not guarantee future sustainability, as some cyclical stocks may distribute large dividends during peak performance, which may not be maintainable [3]