热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 人民币对美元汇率节后快速升值，在岸、离岸重返三年前高位。 2月25日至26日，人民币汇率加速上行，在岸、离岸人民币先后突破6.87、6.84关口，离岸人民币于26日 最高触及6.82665，创下2023年4月以来新高。 今年以来，在岸、离岸人民币对美元累计上涨幅度均在2%左右，自2025年末突破7.0关口后始终维持强 势运行格局。 尽管人民币近期快速升值，但专家提醒，人民币汇率走势受多重因素驱动，核心变量集中在中美利差、 国内经济修复力度，以及全球风险偏好。预计人民币年度走势维持波动稳定、小幅升值的格局。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青判断，如果2026年人民币汇率出现背离基本面的急涨急跌情况，包括中间 价调控在内，监管层稳汇市工具会果断出手，释放清晰政策信号。历史表明，这些政策工具能够起到有 效引导市场预期，防范汇率超调风险的作用。 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟也表示，央行在汇率形成机制上的操作更注重逆周期调节。 政策的目标并非追求升值，而是确保人民币在全球货币体系中的可信度。 节后汇率强势拉升 春节后人民币汇率强势回升。 对于近期人民 ...

2月25日至26日，人民币汇率加速上行，在岸、离岸人民币先后突破6.87、6.84关口，离岸人民币于26日 最高触及6.82665，创下2023年4月以来新高。 今年以来，在岸、离岸人民币对美元累计上涨幅度均在2%左右，自2025年末突破7.0关口后始终维持强 势运行格局。 尽管人民币近期快速升值，但专家提醒，人民币汇率走势受多重因素驱动，核心变量集中在中美利差、 国内经济修复力度，以及全球风险偏好。预计人民币年度走势维持波动稳定、小幅升值的格局。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青判断，如果2026年人民币汇率出现背离基本面的急涨急跌情况，包括中间 价调控在内，监管层稳汇市工具会果断出手，释放清晰政策信号。历史表明，这些政策工具能够起到有 效引导市场预期，防范汇率超调风险的作用。 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟也表示，央行在汇率形成机制上的操作更注重逆周期调节。 政策的目标并非追求升值，而是确保人民币在全球货币体系中的可信度。 节后汇率强势拉升 春节后人民币汇率强势回升。 2月25日，在岸及离岸人民币对美元双双升破6.87关口，创下2023年4月以来新高。人民币对美元中间价 报6.9231，调升93个基点。 ...

眼看人民币汇率一把冲到6.90，财经圈炸了锅。朋友圈、财经群、股市直播间，都有人在喊："外资来 了！人民币要起飞了！"一边是热烈的欢呼，一边是小心翼翼的疑问。 真的是这样吗？还是又一次短暂的上蹿下跳？这事儿细品一下，别光看数字。背后挺复杂。先说这波人 民币猛涨，到底是谁在背后"助推"？有人觉得是外资疯了，其实没那么简单。 美元最近有点"泄气"，美元指数跌到96.8。直接让其他货币有了喘息的机会。别的货币趁着美元休息的 档口，纷纷开始反弹。 人民币当然也抓住了机会，但底子厚才是真正的关键。全球货物贸易量第一，年年顺差，钱是实打实赚 来的。不是画出来的。所以汇率走强，先看家底，再看外部环境。 银行板块悄悄回暖，原本涨得猛的板块开始收敛。这其实是健康的板块轮动。但看成交量，萎缩得厉 害，散户资金净流出，大多数人还是在犹豫。没敢真正下场。 你要说这是"乐观"，其实更像暴风雨后的安静。谁都不敢轻举妄动。放眼全球，外部环境也没啥让人安 心的信号。 美股表面上反弹了两天，背地里对冲基金做空美股的规模却创了新高，尤其是科技板块。被抛得最狠。 资金都往医疗保健这些防御板块跑，明显是避险情绪浓。 最后才轮到国际资本的流动。再说， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Hong Kong stock market experienced a sharp decline followed by a gradual recovery, primarily due to rumors regarding potential tax rate adjustments targeting the financial and internet value-added services sectors, which led to a collective drop in stock prices of related companies [1] - The rumors about tax adjustments are deemed unfounded based on analyses from RandomlyWriting and Everbright Securities, indicating that the logic behind the comparisons to other industries' tax rates is flawed and that significant tax reforms are complex and typically follow a structured process [1] - The expectation of tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar has put pressure on the valuations of Hong Kong tech stocks, particularly under foreign capital influence [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the overall liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market may be suppressed due to the anticipated continuation of loose monetary and fiscal policies in the U.S. until 2026, with a low probability of a weak dollar trend similar to the first half of 2025 [2] - The potential for a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market may depend on breakthroughs in AI and related technologies, as well as a recovery in domestic consumption, which could support long-term growth momentum for the sector [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider Hong Kong tech ETFs (513020) or the Cathay Internet ETF (513720) as potential investment options, given the current low historical valuations of the Hong Kong stock market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar (USD), driven by diverging monetary policy expectations between Australia and the US, alongside strong economic fundamentals in Australia [1][2][3]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of January 12, 2026, the AUD/USD exchange rate is at 0.6697, having increased by 0.1945% during the day, with a trading range between 0.6671 and 0.6706 [1]. - The AUD has shown a significant upward movement since the end of 2025, reaching a peak of approximately 0.68 on January 7, 2026, marking the highest level since mid-2025 [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The divergence in monetary policy expectations is a key driver of the AUD/USD exchange rate, with the market anticipating a cumulative 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2026, which is suppressing the USD [2]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) faces uncertainty regarding its policy direction, having cut rates three times in 2025, while inflation rates have rebounded significantly, with the overall inflation rate reaching 3.2% in Q3 2025 and 3.8% in October 2025, exceeding the target range of 2%-3% [2]. Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - Australia's economy is performing robustly, with GDP growth increasing to 2.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, supported by a recovery in private demand [3]. - The labor market remains tight, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.3% as of November 2025 [3]. - The AUD, as a commodity currency, is closely linked to commodity prices, particularly iron ore, which has seen a significant rebound since late 2025, positively impacting the AUD and Australian export levels [3]. Group 4: External Factors and Market Sentiment - Global risk sentiment and external risks significantly influence the AUD/USD exchange rate, with changes in risk appetite affecting the performance of the AUD [3]. - China's demand, particularly for iron ore, is crucial for Australian exports and the AUD's performance, as China is a major importer of Australian iron ore [3]. - Factors such as rising global trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions may increase short-term volatility in the AUD [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the AUD/USD exchange rate will depend on several key variables, including upcoming RBA monetary policy meetings, the pace of Fed rate cuts, and US economic data [4]. - The prices of iron ore and other commodities, changes in Chinese demand, and global trade and geopolitical dynamics will continue to play significant roles in influencing the exchange rate [4].

Group 1 - Bitcoin remains stable above $91,000 after the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut, with overall volatility nearly frozen [1][2] - The calm in the market is attributed to a continued reduction in on-chain selling pressure, as exchange inflows of Bitcoin have significantly decreased since November [1][2] - Large holders have reduced their transfers to exchanges, leading to a significant contraction in short-term selling pressure, keeping the market within a narrow range [1][2] Group 2 - CryptoQuant reports that whales incurred over $600 million in realized losses when Bitcoin first dropped below $100,000, with total estimated losses reaching $3.2 billion [3][4] - Short-term holders have been selling at a negative profit margin since mid-November, indicating that market sentiment has undergone significant release [3][4] - EasyMarkets suggests that this structural signal often corresponds to a stage where selling pressure is nearing exhaustion, explaining Bitcoin's stability around $92,000 [3][4] Group 3 - Market attention is shifting towards Tokyo, with predictions that the Bank of Japan will raise rates by 25 basis points at its December 19 meeting [4] - The rise in long-term Japanese government bond yields has raised concerns among policymakers, making local policy changes a key variable for global liquidity direction [4] - EasyMarkets believes that the Bank of Japan's decision could reshape global risk appetite, potentially leading to a trend breakthrough in the currently calm cryptocurrency market [4]

Market Overview - Global risk appetite has improved significantly, with major equity indices and commodities rising in tandem as of November 28, 2025[7] - Silver and copper prices have reached historical highs, with silver surpassing $56 per ounce and copper closing at $11,175.5 per ton[7] - The MSCI Global Index increased by 3.5%, with developed markets outperforming emerging and frontier markets[20] Equity Performance - Major U.S. indices rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising by 4.9% and the Russell 2000 increasing by 5.5%[20] - In emerging markets, the A-share market saw a 2.9% increase, with the ChiNext Index and the CSI 2000 both up by 4.5%[20] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.5% and 3.8%, respectively[20] Bond Market - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bear steepening" trend, with the 10Y-2Y yield spread widening by 3.7 basis points to 0.42%[36] - U.S. Treasury yields showed a "bull steepening" pattern, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rising to 86.4%[37] Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity indices such as the South China and CRB rose by 2%, with 10 out of 13 major commodities recording price increases[55] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.7%, dropping below 100, while the euro, pound, and yuan appreciated by 0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.4%, respectively[77] Risk Indicators - The implied offshore RMB exchange rate for gold has broken the 7 mark, indicating significant currency fluctuations[82] - Key risk indicators such as VIX and MOVE have shown a notable decline, reflecting reduced market volatility[7]

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1. Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes | Asset Class | Sub - variety | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Commodities | Iron ore | 785.50 | 1.68% | | | Corn | 2195.00 | 0.46% | | | Rebar | 3057.00 | 0.13% | | | PTA | 4666.00 | - 0.72% | | | Palm oil | 8550.00 | - 1.09% | | | Polysilicon | 53360.00 | - 1.27% | | | Copper | 85660.00 | - 1.43% | | | Crude oil | 447.40 | - 2.19% | | | Aluminum | 21340.00 | - 2.29% | | | Methanol | 2004.00 | - 2.48% | | | Soybean meal | 3012.00 | - 2.59% | | | Gold | 926.94 | - 2.75% | | | Ethylene glycol | 3808.00 | - 2.91% | | | PVC | 4456.00 | - 3.30% | | | Live pigs | 11350.00 | - 3.61% | | | Glass | 987.00 | - 4.36% | | | Silver | 11680.00 | - 5.62% | | | Coking coal | 1103.00 | - 7.47% | 2.2. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes | Stock Index | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai 50 | 2955.85 | - 2.72% | | CSI 300 | 4453.61 | - 3.77% | | CSI 500 | 6817.41 | - 5.78% | | FTSE 100 | 9539.71 | - 1.64% | | S&P 500 | 6602.99 | - 1.95% | | France CAC40 | 7982.65 | - 2.29% | | NASDAQ Index | 22273.08 | - 2.74% | | Nikkei 225 | 48625.88 | - 3.48% | | Hang Seng Index | 25220.02 | - 5.09% | 2.3. Bonds and Weekly Changes | Bond | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.59 | + 0.62bp | | 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.82 | + 0.14bp | | 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.43 | - 0.45bp | 2.4. Foreign Exchange and Weekly Changes | Foreign Exchange | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 100.15 | + 0.87% | | US Dollar Intermediate Price | 7.09 | + 0.07% | | Euro - US Dollar | 1.15 | - 0.93% | [2] 3. Commodity Views 3.1. Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy View: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Nvidia's better - than - expected performance eases AI bubble concerns; Fed officials' remarks boost rate - cut expectations; loose expectations remain, and the stock index may stage a phased recovery; significant short - term decline with strong downside support. - Bearish Logic: Fed's hawkish stance causes liquidity expectations to fluctuate; rising US Dollar Index suppresses global risk appetite; AI bubble controversy affects tech stocks; fading speculative sentiment leads to reduced trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy View: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Weak fundamental data and insufficient domestic demand support loose expectations; central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading signals policy support; medium - to - long - term allocation demand pulls interest rates down; limited incremental policies at the end of the year. - Bearish Logic: Low expectation of further rate cuts, lack of upward momentum; tight external market liquidity affects the bond market; new redemption rules suppress the bond market, especially 30 - year bonds [4]. 3.2. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: OPEC + suspends production increase, tightening supply expectations; northern hemisphere's heating season boosts demand; geopolitical risks in South America remain; short - term disruption of Libyan exports; Fed officials' calming remarks boost rate - cut expectations; potential stabilization after short - term oversold. - Bearish Logic: Persistent global supply surplus and inventory accumulation; fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations and tight liquidity; overall slowdown in fourth - quarter demand; significant decline in geopolitical risks [5]. 3.3. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Malaysia enters the production - reduction season, easing supply pressure; India's import profit recovery may increase procurement; Indonesia's B50 policy boosts long - term biodiesel demand; widening international soybean - palm oil price difference makes palm oil more cost - effective. - Bearish Logic: US cancellation of relevant energy offices is negative for biodiesel policies; weak Malaysian palm oil exports in November; large domestic inventory accumulation; winter consumption off - season and expected inventory build - up [5]. 3.4. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Low inventory provides price support; limited supply increase expected in 2026, maintaining a tight supply - demand balance; emerging sectors like energy storage drive long - term aluminum consumption. - Bearish Logic: AI bubble concerns affect metal performance; cooling Fed rate - cut expectations pressure metal prices; potential decline in photovoltaic production may suppress aluminum consumption; high prices squeeze processing profits; industry off - season affects demand and开工 [6]. 3.5. Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Potential winter maintenance in Iran may reduce imports; attention to year - end maintenance of southwest gas - based producers; increased losses in coal - to - methanol production may force a reduction in operating loads; low valuation limits downside space. - Bearish Logic: Weakening macro - drivers lead to trading of weak fundamentals; high import arrivals and expected port inventory build - up; compressed MTO profits reduce methanol procurement; weakening coal - based cost support [6]. 3.6. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy View: 2 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Fed officials' dovish signals boost rate - cut expectations; geopolitical and policy uncertainties increase gold's safe - haven appeal; US debt credit issues weaken long - term US dollar confidence; global central banks' continuous gold purchases support long - term demand. - Bearish Logic: Large internal differences within the Fed lead to unclear policy guidance; better - than - expected non - farm payrolls strengthen the hawkish stance; improving US dollar liquidity may increase market risk appetite [7]. 3.7. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Tight supply expectations of Australian coal may support import costs; potential decline in production after year - end production targets are met; increased demand from winter heating. - Bearish Logic: Supply - guarantee policies make the market cautious; increased steel mill losses lead to reduced hot metal production; significant increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance; more online auction failures indicate weak demand; high coking coal inventory in coke enterprises reduces restocking willingness [7].

Group 1: Market Overview - The global risk appetite has decreased, with the VIX index and MOVE 5-day moving average rising significantly, leading to a synchronized decline in both stock and commodity markets [2] - Major global stock indices have generally retreated, with the technology sector experiencing notable declines, while gold, silver, copper, and oil also recorded drops [2][3] - The USD index has surpassed 100, and the Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, approaching the 160 mark against the dollar [2][5] Group 2: Equity Market Performance - The MSCI global index fell by 2.5%, with developed markets showing a pattern where declines in frontier markets were less severe than in developed and emerging markets [3] - In the U.S., major indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones dropped by 1.9%, while the Nasdaq fell by 2.7%, indicating increased scrutiny on the earnings quality of major tech firms [3] - Emerging markets saw significant declines in A-shares, with small-cap and tech boards dropping over 5.1%, while the Russian RTS index rose sharply by 9.1% [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bear steepening" trend, with the yield curve shifting upward and the 10Y-2Y spread widening [4] - In contrast, U.S. Treasury yields showed a "bull steepening" pattern, with the yield curve moving downward, influenced by dovish comments from the New York Fed [4] - The Japanese government is expected to issue additional bonds to finance a fiscal stimulus plan, which may lead to increased long-term bond yields [4] Group 4: Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity indices such as South China and CRB fell by 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively, with only three out of thirteen major commodity futures recording price increases [5] - The dollar index rose by 0.9%, while the yen depreciated by 1.2%, which may benefit Japanese exporters but also heighten inflationary pressures [5] - The Bank of Japan faces increased pressure to raise interest rates due to the combination of yen depreciation and inflation [5] Group 5: Fixed Income Issuance and Trading - Net financing in the bond market increased, with a total issuance of 3,846.4 billion yuan against 2,555.6 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net increase of 1,290.8 billion yuan [9] - Secondary market trading volume decreased, with total transactions amounting to 7,783.28 billion yuan, down from 8,032.22 billion yuan the previous week [10] - The yield on 3-year AAA medium-term notes fell by 2.33 basis points to 1.86%, indicating a downward trend in short-term yields [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equities**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [2][3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term shock, cautious long - position [2] - **Black Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term shock, cautious and wait - and - see [2] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [2][3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, US employment data is better than expected, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation further declines, and global risk appetite cools significantly. Domestically, China's October economic data slows down year - on - year and falls short of expectations, and the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations to release liquidity. The short - term macro upward drive weakens, and the market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and the Fed's monetary policy expectations [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends. Equities, treasury bonds, and various commodity sectors are mainly in a short - term shock state, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: US September non - farm payrolls exceed expectations, the unemployment rate rises to a four - year high, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation further declines. China's October economic data slows down and falls short of expectations. The central bank releases liquidity, but the Fed's hawkish signals suppress global risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive weakens, and equities are in short - term shock [2]. - **Equities**: Affected by sectors such as silicon energy, military, and coal, the domestic stock market falls. Due to weak economic data and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term macro upward drive weakens, and equities are in short - term shock. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see [3]. - **Precious Metals**: After the US non - farm payrolls exceed expectations, the prospect of a December interest - rate cut weakens, and precious metals prices weaken in the short term. They are in short - term shock, and the long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets continue to weaken. Although demand improves slightly, supply increases, and the price has no room for a sharp decline or a significant rise in the short term. Treat it with an interval - shock mindset [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures prices weaken slightly. The key factor determining the price is the decline process and the bottom - reaching time of hot - metal production. Short - term interval - shock [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron falls, and that of silicon manganese remains flat. The futures prices are expected to continue interval - shock [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreases marginally due to some device overhauls, but the overall supply pressure remains. The demand for heavy soda is stable, and that for light soda recovers slightly. Short - term interval - shock, long - term bearish [7]. - **Glass**: The glass production remains stable, and the demand improves marginally. The downstream demand is still weak, and the inventory is high. Short - term weak operation [7]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: US copper inventories are at a historical high, and domestic refined - copper de - stocking is less than expected. The shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine supports the futures price. There is a risk of a downward break in the short term [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of Shanghai aluminum falls slightly. Although the downstream replenishes inventory at low prices, the inventory is still high. The aluminum shortage is a false proposition, and the price may have a large correction. Short - term shock [9]. - **Tin**: The supply side recovers from overhauls, but the mine supply is tight. The demand side is weak in the peak season. The tin price is at a historical high, and the actual trading activity is insufficient. Short - and medium - term high - level interval - shock [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rises. The exchange strengthens risk control. Short - term cautious long - position or wait - and - see [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon falls. Organic silicon monomer factories plan to jointly reduce emissions and support prices. Pay attention to the continuity of funds and buy on dips [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon falls. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. Expected to be in a high - level interval - shock [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: If a peace agreement is reached between Ukraine and Russia and energy sanctions are lifted, Russian oil supply will return to the market. Due to better - than - expected non - farm data and a lower Fed interest - rate cut probability, oil prices are under pressure and will remain weakly volatile [15]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices fall, and the asphalt futures price is approaching last year's low. The social and factory inventories are slightly decreasing, but the demand is in the off - season, and the over - supply pressure is high [15]. - **PX**: Crude oil falls slightly, and PX has limited upward momentum. It can still get some demand support. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude - oil cost fluctuations [16]. - **PTA**: Driven by PX, PTA rebounds, but the supply is still high, and the downstream demand is seasonally weakening. The long - term bearish pressure is large [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory accumulates significantly, and the downstream demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain in low - level interval - shock [16]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber rebounds slightly following the polyester sector, but the future pressure is large. The terminal orders are seasonally decreasing, and the inventory is slightly increasing [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Commodity funds sell soybean futures contracts. The US faces competition from Brazilian soybeans in exports but has some support from sales to China. South American soybean planting is affected by floods [17][18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean and soybean - meal supply and demand are loose, and the basis is weakly stable. With the weakening of US soybeans, soybean meal may have a phased correction [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: US biodiesel policy disturbances increase, and the domestic soybean - oil supply is stronger than demand. The state's rapeseed - oil reserve sales are good, and the supply is becoming more abundant [19]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm - oil futures fall, and exports decline. The domestic palm - oil inventory increases, and the price is under pressure [20]. - **Corn**: The price of Northeast corn is stable. The inventory of ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises is low, and the futures may repair the basis [20]. - **Hogs**: The live - hog price is stable and slightly strong. The market supply is in excess, and the futures price may continue to fall [20].