Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US dollar index is under pressure due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence, while global risk appetite has increased. Domestically, China's official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. With policies to expand service consumption and the extension of the tariff truce between China and the US, short - term domestic risk appetite has risen. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening marginally [2]. - Different sectors have different short - term trends. For example, stock indices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, treasury bonds to fluctuate at high levels, and different commodity sectors have their own characteristics such as black metals being weak, non - ferrous metals being slightly stronger, energy and chemicals fluctuating, and precious metals being strong at high levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakening US dollar index and rising global risk appetite are due to expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was still below the boom - bust line. Policies to expand service consumption are to be introduced, and the extension of the tariff truce and US easing expectations reduce short - term external risks and increase domestic easing expectations. Short - term macro upward drivers are strengthening marginally [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Driven by sectors like precious metals, metals, and biomedicine, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the improvement in manufacturing PMI and policy support, short - term domestic risk appetite has increased. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, and short - term operation is to be cautiously bullish [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, with a cautious wait - and - see approach [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Monday, steel futures and spot prices continued to be weak, and market trading volume was low. Although the PMI in August increased by 0.1 percentage points, it was still below the boom - bust line. Real - world demand is weakening, steel inventories are increasing, and the probability of steel mills resuming production next week is high. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: On Monday, the decline in iron ore futures and spot prices widened. Iron water production is expected to further decline this week, and steel mills' procurement is cautious. The global iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume have increased this week, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Monday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined. The production of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia has little change, and there are new production capacity plans in October. The production of silicon iron has cost support, and the reduction in production is expected to be limited. Ferroalloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On Monday, the main soda ash contract fluctuated within a range. Supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and profits are declining. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. - **Glass**: On Monday, the main glass contract fluctuated within a range. Supply has slightly increased, demand is difficult to improve significantly, and profits have slightly increased. Glass is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The eurozone's manufacturing PMI reached a new high. However, domestic copper demand is expected to weaken marginally, and although the Fed's rate cut in September may briefly boost copper prices, the strong copper price is hard to sustain [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Monday, the aluminum closing price fell and then rebounded slightly. Aluminum inventory has increased, and LME aluminum inventory is at a neutral level. In the medium term, the upside space for aluminum prices is limited, and in the short term, it will maintain a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore is expected to be more abundant. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory has decreased. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upside space [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Monday, the main lithium carbonate contract fell. Lithium carbonate is slowly destocking, and it is expected to fluctuate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Monday, the main industrial silicon contract rose. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the main polysilicon contract rose significantly. Rumors of industry restructuring have raised market expectations, but production in August was close to 130,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is focused on geopolitical risks. India has refuted the US pressure to stop importing oil from Russia, and Ukraine has attacked more Russian refineries. OPEC+ will hold a meeting to discuss supply policies, and the market expects the organization to suspend production increases. The spot price has a limited rebound, and attention should be paid to Indian tariffs and OPEC+ production decisions [13]. - **Asphalt**: The slight increase in oil prices has driven up asphalt costs. Asphalt itself is still weak, with a slightly declining basis. Inventory de - stocking is limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the near term, with attention to changes in oil costs [14]. - **PX**: The rebound in crude oil prices has driven up the PX market, but due to low PTA开工, the PX price is still weak. PX is in a tight supply situation, and the PXN spread has slightly decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the near term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [14]. - **PTA**: The PTA开工 has been at a low level due to plant problems, but the high basis has weakened, and processing fees have recovered. Demand recovery is slow, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with attention to oil prices and downstream demand [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to overseas plant problems, imports are expected to be low, and port inventory has decreased significantly. The load of synthetic gas plants is high, and there is limited room for further increase. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, with attention to downstream开工 recovery and oil costs [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price has slightly decreased due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and short - fiber开工 has rebounded slightly. Inventory has accumulated slightly, and it is expected to follow the polyester sector and can be shorted at high levels in the medium term [15]. - **Methanol**: The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals have increased supply pressure. The opening of the reflux window and the planned restart of MTO plants provide some support, but the oversupply pattern remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - **PP**: The device开工 has increased, and new production capacity has been put into operation. Demand is weak, but policy support prevents a deep decline. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **LLDPE**: Current maintenance has relieved supply pressure, and downstream demand is slowly increasing, with inventory decreasing. As maintenance ends, supply pressure will increase. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand growth [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT market was closed overnight. Since the USDA tightened the supply - demand expectations for new - crop US soybeans in August, and export sales data have improved, the net long position of CBOT soybean funds has increased. However, without substantial Chinese purchases, the export outlook is not overly optimistic, and there is no upward driver for the low - valued market [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The CBOT soybean price is likely to be under pressure in the short term. In China, with more imported soybeans being released, the risk preference for protein meal may decrease. There is still a large pressure for short - term inventory accumulation, and the basis is difficult to repair in the short term [17]. - **Oils and Fats**: Southeast Asian palm oil is in a peak production season, and exports are limited. It is expected that Indonesia will repair its low inventory, while Malaysia will face inventory accumulation pressure. The overall boost to oils and fats is limited. Domestic palm oil may be under pressure, while soybean and rapeseed oils have sufficient supply and demand and may see a repair of the low - valued market [17][18]. - **Corn**: In September, attention should be paid to the new - crop corn listing. There is no concentrated arrival pressure this year, and port and downstream inventories are low. The expected opening price of new - crop corn in the main production areas may be slightly higher than last year, and the main C2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2150 - 2250 yuan/ton [18]. - **Pigs**: In September, the supply and demand of pigs will both increase. The pressure of large - weight pig sales has been released, and there is a seasonal replenishment for secondary fattening. With the traditional holiday stocking period, the pig price should not be overly pessimistic [19].

Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar is currently trading around 1.15, with a slight decline of 0.09% from the previous close of 1.1569, influenced by rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] - The cost of credit default swaps (CDS) for European high-yield bonds has significantly decreased, with the iTraxx Europe Crossover Index dropping 3 basis points to 278 basis points, marking a one-month low [1] - The decline in CDS costs is primarily driven by a substantial downward revision in US non-farm payroll data, which has strengthened market expectations for an upcoming easing cycle by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - If the euro breaks above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1645, it may rise further to 1.1700, with subsequent resistance levels at 1.1800 and the yearly high of 1.1830 [2] - Conversely, if the euro falls below the 50-day simple moving average at 1.1576, it could drop to 1.1550 and potentially test the key level of 1.1500, with the next significant area being the August low of 1.1391 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global trade negotiations have made progress, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. However, short - term market sentiment in China has declined, and domestic risk has cooled [2]. - For asset classes, the stock index is expected to experience short - term volatile corrections, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Treasury bonds are in short - term high - level oscillations, and cautious observation is advised. In the commodity sector, black commodities are in short - term low - level volatile rebounds, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; non - ferrous metals are short - term volatile and strong, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term volatile, and cautious observation is advised; precious metals are in short - term high - level oscillations, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: In May, US consumer spending unexpectedly decreased by 0.1%, lower than the market - expected increase of 0.1%. Inflation rose moderately, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the US dollar was generally weak. Global trade negotiations progress led to an increase in US consumer confidence and a decrease in the enthusiasm for safe - haven assets [2]. - Domestic: Six departments including the central bank jointly issued a guidance on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, and the Ministry of Commerce organized a new energy vehicle consumption season. Consumption policy stimulus has increased, which is helpful for boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term. However, short - term domestic market sentiment has declined [2][3]. - Asset operations: For stocks, short - term cautious long positions; for treasury bonds, cautious observation; for commodities, different sectors have different operations as mentioned above [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to fall due to the drag of sectors such as banking, insurance, oil and gas exploration, and digital currency. Policy stimulus is beneficial in the short term, but market sentiment has declined. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Recently, precious metals have corrected from high levels. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran weakened the safe - haven sentiment, and weak US economic data led to a decline in gold prices. Although the PCE price index slightly exceeded expectations, the safe - haven property still provides support. In the short term, gold is expected to be volatile and weak [4]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: As the 90 - day tariff suspension deadline approaches, the White House may extend it. Fed officials' statements and Trump's possible appointment of the Fed chair have increased the rate - cut expectation, and the US dollar has declined. Fundamentally, production is high, demand may weaken, and inventory growth has slowed. Wait for the right time to short [5]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the aluminum price has continued to rise slightly. LME inventory increased last Friday, and the domestic aluminum inventory drawdown may have reached an inflection point [5]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It has entered the off - season, and manufacturing orders are weak. Tight scrap aluminum supply supports the price, and it is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term with limited upside [5]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and the operating rate has rebounded but is still low. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory has increased. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but there are medium - term constraints [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Macro sentiment has boosted the price, and it is short - term strong and volatile. Fundamentals are loose, and opportunities after the rebound meets resistance can be awaited [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There are four short - term positive factors, and it is volatile and strong. Short - term long positions can be considered, or wait for opportunities after the rebound [7]. - **Polysilicon**: It is short - term strong and volatile due to industrial silicon production cuts. Fundamentals are loose, and short positions on rebounds are recommended [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium has been withdrawn, and the market focus has returned to supply and demand. The OPEC+ meeting's August production decision will be crucial, and the market generally expects a continued increase of 411,000 barrels per day. The price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [9]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are low, and asphalt prices are strong and volatile. Shipments have improved, and inventory drawdown is good. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [10]. - **PX**: Cost support is strong in the short term, but oil price declines bring uncertainties. It is expected to be strong and volatile following crude oil [10]. - **PTA**: The basis remains high, but downstream demand is expected to be low for a long time. The upward price space is limited [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the decline in oil prices, the price center has dropped, and it is expected to be volatile [10]. - **Short - fiber**: The price has followed the decline in crude oil prices. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium term [11]. - **Methanol**: There are negative factors such as increased inland arrivals and port inventory accumulation, but there is also support from inland maintenance in July. It is volatile and strong [12]. - **PP**: Production has increased slightly, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [13]. - **LLDPE**: Production has increased, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [14]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The weather in the main growing areas is favorable for crop growth, and there is a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. The USDA report in late June may have a negative impact. Policy changes before July need attention [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the market sentiment is weak. The supply pressure is difficult to relieve in the 09 - contract cycle. Rapeseed meal is dominated by soybean meal [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: For rapeseed oil, import news eases supply concerns, but high port inventory increases risks. For soybean oil, supply is loose, and the inventory is seasonally recovering but still at a low level [16]. - **Palm Oil**: The positive factors are exhausted, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to increased domestic inventory [17][18]. - **Corn**: The spot market is strong, but the futures market is affected by rumors. After the seasonal wheat substitution, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply is expected to increase in July, and demand is weak in the off - season. However, the flexibility of slaughter weight increases price resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [18].

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Stocks**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long - position [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious observation [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term low - level oscillation, short - term cautious observation [3] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious observation [3] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term volatility intensifies, cautious long - position [3] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level strong - biased oscillation, cautious long - position [3] 2. Core Views - The global risk preference has cooled overall due to the weakening US economic data and the intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Israel's attack on Iran. In China, the economic growth is generally stable, but the short - term Middle East geopolitical situation has affected market sentiment [3][4] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions based on the current economic and geopolitical situation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Overseas**: US May retail sales were weaker than expected, but consumer spending was supported by steady wage growth. The weakening economic data and geopolitical tensions made investors nervous, the US dollar rebounded after a decline, and the global risk preference cooled [3] - **Domestic**: China's May consumption grew strongly, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The overall economic growth was stable, which helped boost domestic risk preference in the short term, but the Middle East situation dampened it [3][4] - **Assets**: Stocks oscillate in the short term, cautiously long - position; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level, observe cautiously; black metals oscillate at a low level, observe cautiously; non - ferrous metals oscillate, observe cautiously; energy and chemicals have intensified volatility, cautiously long - position; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level, cautiously long - position [3] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, game, film and television, and metal new materials, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The economic fundamentals are stable, but the Middle East situation impacts market sentiment. The market focuses on Middle East risks, US trade policies, and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long - position [4] Precious Metals - The gold market oscillated narrowly, and silver rebounded. The Middle East situation is the main influencing factor. If the two sides return to the negotiation table, the gold risk - premium may decline rapidly, and silver will remain in consolidation [5] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets were stable, but demand may weaken due to industrial and real - estate pressure. Supply may not decline significantly in the short term. The market will oscillate at the bottom [6][7] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron - water production may remain high, supply is expected to be high in the second quarter, and the rising coking coal price will suppress the iron - ore price. Short - term interval oscillation [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferroalloys declined. The market rumors were false. Short - term interval oscillation [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Global economic slowdown and high tariffs do not support a sharp rise. Pay attention to US trade policies and tariff decisions [9] - **Aluminum**: The warehouse receipts increased, and the inventory decline slowed down. The demand - boosting policy has uncertainties, and the demand may weaken [9] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, the orders are weak, but the tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. Short - term oscillation, limited upside [9] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, the processing fee is low, and the production resumption may be delayed. In the off - season, the demand is weak, and the inventory increased slightly. Short - term oscillation, upside pressure [10][11] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's remarks increased concerns about supply disruption in the Middle East, although the export facilities are currently unaffected [12] - **Asphalt**: The price followed the oil price to test the previous high. The shipment was stable, the profit recovered, and the inventory decline stagnated. Follow the oil price at a high level [12] - **PX**: The price followed the oil price to rise. The maintenance is concentrated in June - July, and the PTA operation rate increased. It will oscillate strongly [12] - **PTA**: The basis increased, the inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory transfer improved. It will oscillate strongly, pay attention to bottle - chip production cuts [13] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is stable, the downstream inventory decline is limited, and the synthetic - gas production resumed. It will oscillate at the bottom [13] - **Short - fiber**: It oscillated strongly following the polyester sector. The terminal orders recovered slowly, and the inventory accumulated. Follow the oil price [14] - **Methanol**: The domestic price declined slightly, the port basis strengthened. The supply may be affected by the Middle East situation, and the supply is expected to increase. Short - term strong [16] - **PP**: The price adjusted slightly. The production increased, the demand was weak, and the cost supported the price. It may face a callback after a short - term rise [17] - **LLDPE**: The price increased, the import window opened, and the inventory decreased slightly. The production restarted, and the demand was weak. Pay attention to the oil price [18] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight CBOT soybean oil futures fell, triggering profit - taking pressure. The US Senate proposed a $1 - billion tax bill [20] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean market drove the soybean meal futures up, but the domestic supply and demand will be looser. The rapeseed meal demand increase was insufficient [20] - **Oils**: The tension in the Middle East made the palm oil more attractive as a biodiesel raw material, and the palm oil exports increased [20] - **Corn**: The arrival of corn in Shandong was low, and the northeast corn provided support. Import auctions and wheat substitution may cause corn to consolidate at a high level [21] - **Hogs**: The weight reduction of large - scale farms was limited, the spot market was stable, and the demand is expected to improve seasonally [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data eases market concerns about an impending economic slowdown, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. The improvement in China's May PMI data and positive signals from the Sino-US leaders' call boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [3]. - For different asset classes, the report provides short - term outlooks: stocks may be short - term volatile with a suggestion of cautious long positions; bonds may be at a short - term high with a cautious wait - and - see approach; different commodity sectors have their own short - term trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Finance - **Overseas**: In May, the US non - farm payroll employment increased by 139,000, higher than the expected 130,000. Employment growth continued to slow under the influence of trade policy uncertainties, and the unemployment rate remained at a low of 4.2% for the third consecutive month. The better - than - expected data led to a rebound in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields and an increase in global risk appetite [3]. - **Domestic**: China's May PMI data improved, indicating continued expansion of overall economic output and accelerated economic growth, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. The Sino - US leaders' call released positive signals and also boosted domestic risk appetite [3]. - **Asset Outlook**: Stocks may be short - term volatile, with a suggestion of cautious long positions; bonds may be at a short - term high, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; different commodity sectors have their own short - term trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as metals, communication services, and trade, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. The improvement in China's May PMI data and positive signals from the Sino - US leaders' call boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. The short - term trading logic focuses on US trade policy changes and trade negotiation progress. It is recommended to be short - term cautious and go long [4]. Precious Metals - Last week, the precious metals market showed a significant divergence, with silver strongly breaking through and driving the gold - silver ratio to quickly decline. Employment data concerns increased market volatility. There are still uncertainties in trade negotiations. Silver has a technical breakthrough and catch - up demand, and the gold - silver ratio may be repaired. Gold is expected to remain in a high - level shock, and a callback - buying strategy is recommended [5]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Canadian wildfires and decent US employment data led to a slight increase in oil prices. The impact of OPEC+ production increase remains at the long - term structural level, and oil prices are expected to remain stable in the near term and may weaken in the long term [6][7]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are consolidating, and the asphalt market is in a narrow - range shock. Demand has recovered to a limited extent, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [7]. - **PX**: PTA's operating rate has slightly increased, and PX demand will rise later. The supply will be tight in the future, but it will maintain a short - term shock pattern [7]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to continue to increase in June. The downstream demand is in a negative feedback state, and it may shift to slight inventory accumulation. It is recommended to be bearish on high prices [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the speculation on ethane imports was falsified, and with the coal price just showing signs of bottoming out, the cost - pricing logic still exerts pressure on the market. Supply will increase significantly, and it may maintain a shock pattern in the near term [8]. - **Short Fibre**: It generally maintains a weak shock pattern. Terminal orders have recovered slower than expected, and downstream operating rates are expected to decrease. It will continue to operate in a shock in the short term [8]. - **Methanol**: Inventories in the inland and ports are rising. The port inventory accumulation process may slow down. Supply is loose, and demand is fair. It is expected to shock and repair in the short term, and prices may decline in the medium - to - long term [8]. - **PP**: Production is increasing, downstream operating rates are slightly falling, and inventories are rising significantly. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and prices are expected to be under pressure [8]. - **LLDPE**: Plants are restarting, downstream operating rates are slightly falling, and inventories are rising. The price is expected to move down due to the production - expansion expectation [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Sino - US leaders' call restarts the negotiation, but the possibility of continued overly optimistic results is low, and attention may return to high - tariff risks. The copper ore supply is relatively tight, production is high, and demand may decline marginally. It will be in a short - term shock [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: Supply is rigid, production is high, and imports have increased significantly. Demand may decline marginally, but there is still an effect of export rush. There is no major substantial negative news in the short term [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of domestic tin ore is tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State may be delayed. Demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and inventories have decreased. Tin prices may continue to repair in the short term, but the upside is limited [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "reciprocal tariff" policy of the United States continues to loosen, leading to a significant increase in global risk appetite. The short - term stagflation risk of the US economy is increasing, with the US dollar index falling. In China, market - stabilizing measures and potential new policies support the domestic market risk appetite [2]. - For asset investment, the stock index is expected to rebound in the short - term with cautious long positions; treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions; the black metal sector is weakly oscillating with cautious observation; the non - ferrous metal sector is oscillating and rebounding with cautious long positions; the energy and chemical sector is oscillating with cautious observation; precious metals are rising with cautious long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 50.8, lower than expected, and the one - year inflation rate expectation reached a 40 - year high, increasing the short - term stagflation risk. The US has exempted some electronic products from "reciprocal tariffs", and the global risk appetite has increased [2]. - Domestic: The loosening of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy and domestic market - stabilizing measures and potential new policies support the domestic market risk appetite [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Supported by sectors such as semiconductors, non - metallic materials, and precious metals, the domestic stock market continued to rebound. With the loosening of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy and domestic support measures, short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2][3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold: Due to the US government's credit damage, the selling of US dollar assets, and geopolitical uncertainties, gold remains strong. A significant correction may present a long - term allocation opportunity [4]. - Silver: Affected by trade frictions, it fell 3.81% last week. It may follow gold and show a weakly oscillating and upward trend [4]. 3.4 Black Metal - Steel: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to be weak last week, but the decline slowed down over the weekend. The apparent demand for some steel products decreased, and the supply of some varieties may still increase. Short - term observation is recommended [5][7]. - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices rebounded slightly. Iron water production may continue to increase, but there is a downward expectation in the medium - term. The short - term price will oscillate within a range [7]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The spot prices remained flat. The demand for ferroalloys is fair, but the supply is decreasing. Short - term price oscillation within a range is expected [8]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: After tariff fluctuations, the oil price rebounded slightly, but the market is still worried about demand decline. The Iran sanctions risk may lead to short - term price fluctuations, and long - term oversupply is expected [9]. - Asphalt: It oscillates weakly following the oil price. The inventory has decreased, but the actual demand is weak, and the price fluctuation will remain high [9]. - PX: The external price has dropped significantly. It will continue to be weak in the short - term, but there may be a slight rebound later [10][11]. - PTA: Terminal orders are affected by tariffs, and the short - term rebound space is limited, remaining in a weak state [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The short - term demand is poor, and the de - stocking time is postponed. It will oscillate at a low level [11]. - Short - fiber: The price has been corrected significantly, and it will continue to oscillate weakly, but there is some support [11]. - Methanol: The inventory is decreasing, but the supply is expected to increase. The 05 contract will oscillate and repair, and the 09 contract is bearish [12]. - PP: The downstream start - up has decreased slightly, but the supply reduction may relieve the pressure, and the price will oscillate and repair [12]. - LLDPE: The downstream demand has declined, and the 09 contract's center of gravity will move down [12]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metal - Copper: The US may not increase tariffs further. Looking for low points for a rebound is a more prudent strategy in the short - term [13]. - Aluminum: The inventory has decreased, and it can be considered for a rebound after a short - term correction [13]. - Tin: The macro situation is expected to improve market sentiment. The smelter start - up has declined, and the inventory has decreased. The tin price will rebound in the short - term [14]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The supply - demand expectation has tightened, and the price may rebound if there are weather risks during the spring sowing [15]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply has decreased, and the inventory has shrunk. The price will fluctuate at a high level, and the downward space is limited [15]. - Rapeseed Meal: It has entered the consumption season, and the inventory is high. The supply risk has decreased, and there is room for the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal to rebound [15]. - Soybean Oil: The demand is in the off - season, and the price is supported by the risk premium of imported soybeans. The basis may weaken in the second quarter [16]. - Palm Oil: The domestic inventory is low, but the global production is increasing, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - Rapeseed Oil: The domestic inventory is high, and the price is under pressure. The cost support is stable but lacks driving force [17].