CryptoQuant同时表示，鲸鱼在比特币首次跌破 10 万美元时出现超过 6 亿美元的已实现亏损，随后累计 损失估计达到 32 亿美元；短期持有者自 11 月中旬起便以负利润率抛售，通常意味着市场情绪已经历充 分宣泄。EasyMarkets易信认为，这一结构性信号往往对应卖压接近枯竭的阶段，也解释了比特币为何 在 9.2 万美元附近稳定。然而，QCP也警告当前的稳定并非真正的信心恢复，ETF流入改善有限，衍生 品仓位态度谨慎，整体更像是在等待外部催化剂的"静止区间"。 随着市场视线转向东京，预测市场普遍押注日银将在 12 月 19 日的会议上加息 25 个基点。QCP表示， 日本长端国债收益率已逼近多年高点，政策制定者对其升速明显不安，因此当地政策变化可能成为下一 波全球流动性方向的关键变量。EasyMarkets易信认为，在主要经济体货币政策路径分化加剧的背景 下，日银的决定或将重塑全球风险偏好，给眼下高度平静的加密资产市场带来潜在趋势突破。 在宏观消息有限、链上卖压趋弱与机构资金温和流入共同作用下，加密市场短期仍处于观望模式。 EasyMarkets易信认为，比特币在高位维持震荡的格局仍将延续，真正的 ...

Market Overview - Global risk appetite has improved significantly, with major equity indices and commodities rising in tandem as of November 28, 2025[7] - Silver and copper prices have reached historical highs, with silver surpassing $56 per ounce and copper closing at $11,175.5 per ton[7] - The MSCI Global Index increased by 3.5%, with developed markets outperforming emerging and frontier markets[20] Equity Performance - Major U.S. indices rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising by 4.9% and the Russell 2000 increasing by 5.5%[20] - In emerging markets, the A-share market saw a 2.9% increase, with the ChiNext Index and the CSI 2000 both up by 4.5%[20] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.5% and 3.8%, respectively[20] Bond Market - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bear steepening" trend, with the 10Y-2Y yield spread widening by 3.7 basis points to 0.42%[36] - U.S. Treasury yields showed a "bull steepening" pattern, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rising to 86.4%[37] Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity indices such as the South China and CRB rose by 2%, with 10 out of 13 major commodities recording price increases[55] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.7%, dropping below 100, while the euro, pound, and yuan appreciated by 0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.4%, respectively[77] Risk Indicators - The implied offshore RMB exchange rate for gold has broken the 7 mark, indicating significant currency fluctuations[82] - Key risk indicators such as VIX and MOVE have shown a notable decline, reflecting reduced market volatility[7]

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1. Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes | Asset Class | Sub - variety | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Commodities | Iron ore | 785.50 | 1.68% | | | Corn | 2195.00 | 0.46% | | | Rebar | 3057.00 | 0.13% | | | PTA | 4666.00 | - 0.72% | | | Palm oil | 8550.00 | - 1.09% | | | Polysilicon | 53360.00 | - 1.27% | | | Copper | 85660.00 | - 1.43% | | | Crude oil | 447.40 | - 2.19% | | | Aluminum | 21340.00 | - 2.29% | | | Methanol | 2004.00 | - 2.48% | | | Soybean meal | 3012.00 | - 2.59% | | | Gold | 926.94 | - 2.75% | | | Ethylene glycol | 3808.00 | - 2.91% | | | PVC | 4456.00 | - 3.30% | | | Live pigs | 11350.00 | - 3.61% | | | Glass | 987.00 | - 4.36% | | | Silver | 11680.00 | - 5.62% | | | Coking coal | 1103.00 | - 7.47% | 2.2. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes | Stock Index | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai 50 | 2955.85 | - 2.72% | | CSI 300 | 4453.61 | - 3.77% | | CSI 500 | 6817.41 | - 5.78% | | FTSE 100 | 9539.71 | - 1.64% | | S&P 500 | 6602.99 | - 1.95% | | France CAC40 | 7982.65 | - 2.29% | | NASDAQ Index | 22273.08 | - 2.74% | | Nikkei 225 | 48625.88 | - 3.48% | | Hang Seng Index | 25220.02 | - 5.09% | 2.3. Bonds and Weekly Changes | Bond | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.59 | + 0.62bp | | 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.82 | + 0.14bp | | 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.43 | - 0.45bp | 2.4. Foreign Exchange and Weekly Changes | Foreign Exchange | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 100.15 | + 0.87% | | US Dollar Intermediate Price | 7.09 | + 0.07% | | Euro - US Dollar | 1.15 | - 0.93% | [2] 3. Commodity Views 3.1. Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy View: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Nvidia's better - than - expected performance eases AI bubble concerns; Fed officials' remarks boost rate - cut expectations; loose expectations remain, and the stock index may stage a phased recovery; significant short - term decline with strong downside support. - Bearish Logic: Fed's hawkish stance causes liquidity expectations to fluctuate; rising US Dollar Index suppresses global risk appetite; AI bubble controversy affects tech stocks; fading speculative sentiment leads to reduced trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy View: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Weak fundamental data and insufficient domestic demand support loose expectations; central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading signals policy support; medium - to - long - term allocation demand pulls interest rates down; limited incremental policies at the end of the year. - Bearish Logic: Low expectation of further rate cuts, lack of upward momentum; tight external market liquidity affects the bond market; new redemption rules suppress the bond market, especially 30 - year bonds [4]. 3.2. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: OPEC + suspends production increase, tightening supply expectations; northern hemisphere's heating season boosts demand; geopolitical risks in South America remain; short - term disruption of Libyan exports; Fed officials' calming remarks boost rate - cut expectations; potential stabilization after short - term oversold. - Bearish Logic: Persistent global supply surplus and inventory accumulation; fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations and tight liquidity; overall slowdown in fourth - quarter demand; significant decline in geopolitical risks [5]. 3.3. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Malaysia enters the production - reduction season, easing supply pressure; India's import profit recovery may increase procurement; Indonesia's B50 policy boosts long - term biodiesel demand; widening international soybean - palm oil price difference makes palm oil more cost - effective. - Bearish Logic: US cancellation of relevant energy offices is negative for biodiesel policies; weak Malaysian palm oil exports in November; large domestic inventory accumulation; winter consumption off - season and expected inventory build - up [5]. 3.4. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Low inventory provides price support; limited supply increase expected in 2026, maintaining a tight supply - demand balance; emerging sectors like energy storage drive long - term aluminum consumption. - Bearish Logic: AI bubble concerns affect metal performance; cooling Fed rate - cut expectations pressure metal prices; potential decline in photovoltaic production may suppress aluminum consumption; high prices squeeze processing profits; industry off - season affects demand and开工 [6]. 3.5. Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Potential winter maintenance in Iran may reduce imports; attention to year - end maintenance of southwest gas - based producers; increased losses in coal - to - methanol production may force a reduction in operating loads; low valuation limits downside space. - Bearish Logic: Weakening macro - drivers lead to trading of weak fundamentals; high import arrivals and expected port inventory build - up; compressed MTO profits reduce methanol procurement; weakening coal - based cost support [6]. 3.6. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy View: 2 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Fed officials' dovish signals boost rate - cut expectations; geopolitical and policy uncertainties increase gold's safe - haven appeal; US debt credit issues weaken long - term US dollar confidence; global central banks' continuous gold purchases support long - term demand. - Bearish Logic: Large internal differences within the Fed lead to unclear policy guidance; better - than - expected non - farm payrolls strengthen the hawkish stance; improving US dollar liquidity may increase market risk appetite [7]. 3.7. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Tight supply expectations of Australian coal may support import costs; potential decline in production after year - end production targets are met; increased demand from winter heating. - Bearish Logic: Supply - guarantee policies make the market cautious; increased steel mill losses lead to reduced hot metal production; significant increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance; more online auction failures indicate weak demand; high coking coal inventory in coke enterprises reduces restocking willingness [7].

Group 1: Market Overview - The global risk appetite has decreased, with the VIX index and MOVE 5-day moving average rising significantly, leading to a synchronized decline in both stock and commodity markets [2] - Major global stock indices have generally retreated, with the technology sector experiencing notable declines, while gold, silver, copper, and oil also recorded drops [2][3] - The USD index has surpassed 100, and the Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, approaching the 160 mark against the dollar [2][5] Group 2: Equity Market Performance - The MSCI global index fell by 2.5%, with developed markets showing a pattern where declines in frontier markets were less severe than in developed and emerging markets [3] - In the U.S., major indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones dropped by 1.9%, while the Nasdaq fell by 2.7%, indicating increased scrutiny on the earnings quality of major tech firms [3] - Emerging markets saw significant declines in A-shares, with small-cap and tech boards dropping over 5.1%, while the Russian RTS index rose sharply by 9.1% [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bear steepening" trend, with the yield curve shifting upward and the 10Y-2Y spread widening [4] - In contrast, U.S. Treasury yields showed a "bull steepening" pattern, with the yield curve moving downward, influenced by dovish comments from the New York Fed [4] - The Japanese government is expected to issue additional bonds to finance a fiscal stimulus plan, which may lead to increased long-term bond yields [4] Group 4: Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity indices such as South China and CRB fell by 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively, with only three out of thirteen major commodity futures recording price increases [5] - The dollar index rose by 0.9%, while the yen depreciated by 1.2%, which may benefit Japanese exporters but also heighten inflationary pressures [5] - The Bank of Japan faces increased pressure to raise interest rates due to the combination of yen depreciation and inflation [5] Group 5: Fixed Income Issuance and Trading - Net financing in the bond market increased, with a total issuance of 3,846.4 billion yuan against 2,555.6 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net increase of 1,290.8 billion yuan [9] - Secondary market trading volume decreased, with total transactions amounting to 7,783.28 billion yuan, down from 8,032.22 billion yuan the previous week [10] - The yield on 3-year AAA medium-term notes fell by 2.33 basis points to 1.86%, indicating a downward trend in short-term yields [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equities**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [2][3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term shock, cautious long - position [2] - **Black Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term shock, cautious and wait - and - see [2] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [2][3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, US employment data is better than expected, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation further declines, and global risk appetite cools significantly. Domestically, China's October economic data slows down year - on - year and falls short of expectations, and the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations to release liquidity. The short - term macro upward drive weakens, and the market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and the Fed's monetary policy expectations [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends. Equities, treasury bonds, and various commodity sectors are mainly in a short - term shock state, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: US September non - farm payrolls exceed expectations, the unemployment rate rises to a four - year high, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation further declines. China's October economic data slows down and falls short of expectations. The central bank releases liquidity, but the Fed's hawkish signals suppress global risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive weakens, and equities are in short - term shock [2]. - **Equities**: Affected by sectors such as silicon energy, military, and coal, the domestic stock market falls. Due to weak economic data and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term macro upward drive weakens, and equities are in short - term shock. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see [3]. - **Precious Metals**: After the US non - farm payrolls exceed expectations, the prospect of a December interest - rate cut weakens, and precious metals prices weaken in the short term. They are in short - term shock, and the long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets continue to weaken. Although demand improves slightly, supply increases, and the price has no room for a sharp decline or a significant rise in the short term. Treat it with an interval - shock mindset [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures prices weaken slightly. The key factor determining the price is the decline process and the bottom - reaching time of hot - metal production. Short - term interval - shock [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron falls, and that of silicon manganese remains flat. The futures prices are expected to continue interval - shock [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreases marginally due to some device overhauls, but the overall supply pressure remains. The demand for heavy soda is stable, and that for light soda recovers slightly. Short - term interval - shock, long - term bearish [7]. - **Glass**: The glass production remains stable, and the demand improves marginally. The downstream demand is still weak, and the inventory is high. Short - term weak operation [7]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: US copper inventories are at a historical high, and domestic refined - copper de - stocking is less than expected. The shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine supports the futures price. There is a risk of a downward break in the short term [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of Shanghai aluminum falls slightly. Although the downstream replenishes inventory at low prices, the inventory is still high. The aluminum shortage is a false proposition, and the price may have a large correction. Short - term shock [9]. - **Tin**: The supply side recovers from overhauls, but the mine supply is tight. The demand side is weak in the peak season. The tin price is at a historical high, and the actual trading activity is insufficient. Short - and medium - term high - level interval - shock [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rises. The exchange strengthens risk control. Short - term cautious long - position or wait - and - see [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon falls. Organic silicon monomer factories plan to jointly reduce emissions and support prices. Pay attention to the continuity of funds and buy on dips [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon falls. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. Expected to be in a high - level interval - shock [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: If a peace agreement is reached between Ukraine and Russia and energy sanctions are lifted, Russian oil supply will return to the market. Due to better - than - expected non - farm data and a lower Fed interest - rate cut probability, oil prices are under pressure and will remain weakly volatile [15]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices fall, and the asphalt futures price is approaching last year's low. The social and factory inventories are slightly decreasing, but the demand is in the off - season, and the over - supply pressure is high [15]. - **PX**: Crude oil falls slightly, and PX has limited upward momentum. It can still get some demand support. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude - oil cost fluctuations [16]. - **PTA**: Driven by PX, PTA rebounds, but the supply is still high, and the downstream demand is seasonally weakening. The long - term bearish pressure is large [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory accumulates significantly, and the downstream demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain in low - level interval - shock [16]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber rebounds slightly following the polyester sector, but the future pressure is large. The terminal orders are seasonally decreasing, and the inventory is slightly increasing [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Commodity funds sell soybean futures contracts. The US faces competition from Brazilian soybeans in exports but has some support from sales to China. South American soybean planting is affected by floods [17][18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean and soybean - meal supply and demand are loose, and the basis is weakly stable. With the weakening of US soybeans, soybean meal may have a phased correction [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: US biodiesel policy disturbances increase, and the domestic soybean - oil supply is stronger than demand. The state's rapeseed - oil reserve sales are good, and the supply is becoming more abundant [19]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm - oil futures fall, and exports decline. The domestic palm - oil inventory increases, and the price is under pressure [20]. - **Corn**: The price of Northeast corn is stable. The inventory of ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises is low, and the futures may repair the basis [20]. - **Hogs**: The live - hog price is stable and slightly strong. The market supply is in excess, and the futures price may continue to fall [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's Vice Chair Jefferson reiterated the need for cautious policy adjustment, cooling the expectation of a December rate cut, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and a continued decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's October economic data slowed year - on - year and fell short of expectations, with the central bank restarting treasury bond trading to release liquidity, but the Fed's hawkish signals dampened risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the market focuses on domestic stimulus policies, economic growth, and Fed policy expectations [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different trends. For example, stocks, bonds, and various commodities are mostly in a short - term volatile state, and specific trading strategies vary by asset [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, precious metals, and insurance, the domestic stock market fell. With economic data weakening and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term macro upward drive is weak, and the stock index is in short - term volatility. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [4]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market fell on Monday night. Due to the strong US dollar and reduced expectations of a US rate cut next month, the short - term is volatile, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term wait - and - see, medium - to - long - term buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market rebounded on Monday, driven by market sentiment. However, the fundamentals are still weak, with demand declining and supply being restricted by losses. The downward space below 3000 points for rebar is limited, and low - level buying opportunities can be considered [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded on Monday. The bottom of pig iron production is uncertain, and the supply is in a state of over - supply. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat on Monday, while the futures prices rebounded. The demand for ferroalloys decreased, and the supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly while that of silicon iron increased slightly. The futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [8]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures contract oscillated on Monday. Supply decreased marginally due to some device overhauls but remained under pressure. Demand for heavy soda was stable, and that for light soda improved slightly. Short - term range - bound, medium - to - long - term bearish [9]. - **Glass**: The glass futures contract was slightly stronger on Monday. Supply remained stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was still high. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: US copper inventories are at a historical high, and domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected. The shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine supports the price, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of Shanghai aluminum continued to fall on Monday, restricted by the reduced expectation of a Fed rate cut. The inventory is difficult to deplete, and if the expectation is repaired later, the price may face a significant correction [10]. - **Tin**: The supply side has a tight situation, and the demand side is weak. The inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the medium - to - short term [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Multiple contracts of lithium carbonate hit the daily limit on Monday. The market quickly digested negative news, and the demand logic prevails. It is oscillating strongly, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure need to be watched [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures contract rose slightly on Monday. After the end of the wet season, production in the southwest decreased significantly, and the supply - demand situation is weak. It is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures contract fell on Monday. There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buying on dips can be considered [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market is weak, and the port market has a strong basis in the morning. Inventory is rising, supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It may fall in the short term but is supported by gas restrictions and cost factors [15]. - **PP**: The PP market is in a weak and volatile state. The demand has improved, but the supply growth rate is too fast, leading to increased inventory. With the approaching of the off - season, the price is expected to continue to decline [15]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price is adjusted. The core contradiction is the continuous accumulation of supply pressure, and the demand support is weakening. The price is expected to be under pressure [16]. - **Urea**: The urea market fluctuates slightly. Supply pressure persists, demand is differentiated, and the price is under downward pressure in the short term but may stabilize in the medium - to - long term [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean futures price rose overnight. The export inspection volume was in line with expectations, and the monthly crushing volume reached a record high [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean meal supply - demand is loose, the inventory is high, and the risk of a future gap is reduced. With the weakening of US soybeans, the price may correct, but it may also stabilize later [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand but is supported by the oil mill's price - holding and export rumors. The rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported [19]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in December, and the export volume decreased significantly in November. The domestic inventory increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Corn**: The current corn inventories in northern ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are low. The futures price may correct the basis, and the price is expected to be slightly stronger [20]. - **Pigs**: The pig price was weak over the weekend. The winter consumption peak has not fully arrived, and the supply is in excess. The price is expected to decline in the short term, but there is some support from farmers' reluctance to sell [21].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: November 16, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Views - Treasury bond futures contracts showed weekly fluctuations, with short - end stability and long - end volatility. The small - scale interest - rate cut expectation and the central bank's cautious stance couldn't further boost the year - end bond market [5]. - The weekly adjustment of US stocks affected global risk appetite, and the report maintained the view that the medium - term general direction was oscillating with a downward bias [6]. Group 3: Section Summaries 1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - The treasury bond futures market had a differentiation feature where the short - end was relatively stable and the long - end had intensified fluctuations. There were disagreements in the market about the scale of the central bank's treasury bond trading operations and the timing of interest - rate cuts, and the uncertainty of policy implementation rhythm increased curve fluctuations [8]. 2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - There is a figure about liquidity monitoring and curve tracking, but no specific text description in the provided content [10]. 3. Seat Analysis - Daily changes in net long positions by institutional type: private funds increased by 0.98%, foreign capital increased by 0.82%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 0.45%. Weekly changes: private funds decreased by 0.37%, foreign capital decreased by 1.09%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 2.79% [12].

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold spot price on November 14 was quoted at 958.80 yuan per gram, showing a premium of 5.6 yuan per gram over the futures main price of 953.20 yuan per gram [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, shifting market focus to key economic data, with inflation concerns and differing views among Federal Reserve officials leading to reduced interest rate cut expectations [1] - China's manufacturing sector showed a decline in October, with exports falling more than expected, contributing to a slowdown in domestic economic growth, although October inflation data exceeded expectations, indicating a recovery [1] Group 2 - Donghai Futures reported that the precious metals market saw overall gains, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing at 956.96 yuan per gram, up 0.11%, while the main silver contract rose to 12,405 yuan per kilogram, up 0.40% [2] - The reopening of the U.S. government led to market sell-offs, and several Federal Reserve officials reiterated hawkish signals, putting short-term pressure on precious metals [2] - The current outlook for precious metals remains strong in the medium to long term, with recommendations for cautious short-term buying and opportunistic long-term purchases [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economic data is better than expected, boosting global risk appetite, while China's economic growth has slowed down, and the short - term macro upward drive has weakened. Attention should be paid to China's economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2][3]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. Metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products are all affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international market conditions. Summary by Category Macro - finance - Overseas: US "small non - farm" ADP employment in October exceeded expectations, and the ISM services PMI rebounded, supporting the strong US dollar and increasing global risk appetite [2]. - Domestic: China's manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and the RMB exchange rate weakened in the short - term. However, the policy stimulus expectation after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee helps boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive is weakened [2][3]. - Asset operations: Short - term cautious long for stock indices and treasury bonds; short - term cautious observation for black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical commodities; short - term high - level correction and cautious observation for precious metals [2]. Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as power grid equipment, photovoltaics, and batteries, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The short - term macro upward drive is weakened, and short - term cautious long is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Wednesday night. Short - term precious metals are volatile, and the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term observation and medium - to - long - term buying on dips are recommended [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The decline of the steel spot and futures markets widened on Wednesday. Demand is expected to decline further from November to December, and supply may contract. The short - term market is expected to be weak and volatile [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures continued to weaken on Wednesday. Supply pressure is large, and prices are expected to fall further [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices were flat on Wednesday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply pressure of soda ash remains, and a bearish view is taken in the medium - to - long - term [7]. - **Glass**: Supported by policies and the impact of Shahe news, glass is expected to be strong in the short - term, but overall demand is still weak [7]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The US dollar index is expected to remain strong. US copper inventories are at a historical high, and there is a risk of the Panama copper mine restarting. The short - term is in high - level shock [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum is volatile in the short - term. Shorting can be considered if the price breaks through the resistance at 21,800 [9]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, and demand is still weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is recommended to hold a light position and wait for the "emotional bottom" [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cost support of large manufacturers [11]. - **Polysilicon**: There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continue to decline. The long - term pressure remains, and the medium - to - short - term focuses on the contradiction between fundamentals and geopolitical risks [14]. - **Asphalt**: The cost support is weakened, and the inventory pressure is increasing. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of crude oil [14]. - **PX**: It remains in a tight pattern and is affected by crude oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **PTA**: The supply is high, and the inventory pressure is large. The short - term is under pressure [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory pressure is large in November, and caution is needed before entering the market [16]. - **Short - fiber**: It follows the polyester sector to fluctuate, and the medium - term can be shorted on rallies [16]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to enter a shock - consolidation phase after a short - term decline [18]. - **PP**: The supply pressure exists, but the demand shows marginal improvement. The short - term is expected to fall inertially [19]. - **LLDPE**: Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the price is expected to continue to decline [19]. - **Urea**: The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The market has optimistic expectations, and the price continues to rise [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the price increase is limited. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow [21][22]. - **Palm Oil**: It is in a short - term adjustment, but the seasonal de - stocking trend remains unchanged [22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil is weakly adjusted, and rapeseed oil is supported by factors such as inventory and trade risks [22]. - **Corn**: The market price is stable, and the futures may be supported at the bottom [23]. - **Pigs**: The pig price is generally falling, and it is difficult to rebound significantly before the winter solstice [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views - The softening of the US President's trade stance boosts global risk appetite, and the short - term macro upward drive has increased. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and Sino - US relations. [2][3] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends, with some suggesting cautious long - positions and others suggesting cautious waiting and watching. [2] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Overseas, the softening of the US President's trade stance boosts the US dollar index and global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth is accelerating, and multiple industry growth - stabilizing plans are introduced, increasing policy support. The market focuses on domestic policies and Sino - US relations, and the short - term macro upward drive has strengthened. [2] - For assets: stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position; bonds are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; for commodities, black metals are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; non - ferrous metals are adjusted, with cautious long - positions; energy and chemicals are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; precious metals are strongly volatile at high levels, with cautious long - positions. [2] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as power grid equipment, photovoltaics, and semiconductor components, the domestic stock market has fallen significantly. However, economic growth acceleration, the softening of the US President's trade stance, and domestic policy support boost risk appetite. The market focuses on policies and Sino - US relations, and short - term cautious long - positions are recommended. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell last Friday. With the softening of the US President's trade stance, global risk aversion declined, and gold prices dropped after hitting a record high. In the short term, precious metals are volatile at high levels, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term long - positions can be held or reduced on rallies, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips is recommended. [3] Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly last Friday, with low trading volume. The easing of Sino - US trade conflicts and expectations of policy benefits support the market. Fundamentally, demand has changed little, inventory has decreased, and supply is likely to decline. In the short term, the steel market is expected to be range - bound. [4] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures and spot prices were weak last Friday. With the narrowing of steel mill profits, iron ore demand is likely to decline. Supply has changed, with a decrease in shipments and an increase in arrivals, and port inventory has increased. A bearish view is recommended for iron ore prices. [6] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Silicon iron and silicon manganese spot prices were flat last Friday, and the futures prices were volatile. The decline in steel production has reduced ferroalloy demand. Manganese ore prices are weak, and the supply of silicon manganese has decreased. Silicon iron prices are stable, and the market for some raw materials is tight. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to remain range - bound. [7] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Macro factors include the easing of trade tensions and the impact of US bank credit issues. The suspension of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices, but it is temporary, and future supply is expected to increase. Domestic copper inventory is high, and demand is facing challenges. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile. [8] Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose and then fell last Friday. The market is affected by bank credit issues. Aluminum inventory has decreased, but demand is weakening. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound. [9] Tin - On the supply side, Indonesian policies and mining approvals affect supply, and the end of maintenance in a large Chinese smelter increases production. On the demand side, demand is weak in traditional and emerging industries. High prices suppress demand, and inventory has decreased. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. [10] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The decline in spot market benchmarks and premiums has led to a fall in futures prices. The return of Asia - Pacific procurement is the focus, and Russian supply is a risk point. In the short term, there may be a price rebound, but the long - term outlook is bearish. [11] Asphalt - Asphalt prices are following oil prices and remaining low and volatile. The basis is low, and there is pressure on factory inventory accumulation. Profit has recovered slightly, and supply pressure is increasing. The future trend depends on oil prices and inventory. [11] PX - Affected by falling oil prices and weak polyester demand, PX prices are falling. Although PTA's high - level operation provides some support, PX is expected to remain weak and volatile. [11] PTA - Downstream demand is weak, and processing fees are falling. Inventory is accumulating, and the basis is decreasing. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended. [12] Ethylene Glycol - Inventory has increased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to remain low, with limited room for rebound. [12] Short - Fiber - Short - fiber is adjusting with the polyester sector and is expected to remain weak and volatile. The improvement in terminal orders is limited, and the future trend depends on demand recovery. [13] Methanol - Short - term supply has decreased, and demand from olefins is high, leading to a slight reduction in inventory. However, traditional demand is weak, and there are plans to restart production, so prices are expected to be volatile. [13] PP - Supply growth exceeds demand, and inventory is high. Falling oil prices weaken cost support. The future trend depends on demand recovery. [13] LLDPE - Supply has increased, and inventory has accumulated, suppressing prices. Demand is divided, and cost support is weakening. The market is under short - term pressure. [14] Urea - Daily production is stable. Industrial demand is stable, and agricultural demand is recovering. Exports are shrinking. The market may be stagnant and then rise slightly, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline. [14] Agricultural Products US Soybeans - USDA reports are delayed, and Sino - US soybean trade concerns persist. Domestic consumption provides some support. Brazilian and Argentine soybean conditions are good. The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and Sino - US trade is the key factor. [15] Soybean Meal - Domestic oil mill supply has recovered, but inventory pressure remains. Oil mill profit is in deficit, increasing the willingness to support prices. There is a supply gap risk before the arrival of South American soybeans next year. After the oversold situation, the market is expected to stabilize and fluctuate. [15] Oils - For rapeseed oil, the easing of China - Canada relations reduces risk appetite, and the market is expected to be volatile before trade news is clear. Palm oil supply and demand are stable, and prices are supported. Soybean oil is in the peak season, and the price is stable. [15][16] Corn - Corn from Northeast and North China is on the market, causing a seasonal impact. The current price is close to the cost line, and farmers' reluctance to sell may slow down the price decline. [16] Pigs - After the festival, the production and inventory reduction speed has accelerated, and pig prices have fallen to a new low. There is support from fat - to - lean price differences and some restocking, and the supply may decrease in late October, stabilizing prices. However, significant price recovery is difficult without a large increase in demand. [16]