Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the unexpected decrease in US non - farm payrolls in February and the rise in the unemployment rate initially strengthened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, but the Middle - East geopolitical war led to a sharp increase in energy prices and global inflation expectations, causing a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in February decreased, and the overall goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market trading logic currently focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and short - term market sentiment has cooled, with short - term stock indices likely to correct [4]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stock indices may experience increased short - term volatility; treasury bonds may oscillate in the short term; black metals, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals may oscillate in the short term; energy and chemical products have risen significantly in the short term; and different industries within each asset class also have their own characteristics [4]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas: US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000 unexpectedly, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The Middle - East geopolitical war led to reduced production in oil - producing countries, a sharp increase in energy prices, and a short - term rise in global inflation expectations, along with an increase in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and a significant decline in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in economic sentiment. The overall goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than in 2025. - Asset trends: Stock indices may experience increased short - term volatility and are recommended for short - term cautious observation; treasury bonds may oscillate in the short term and are also recommended for cautious observation; black metals and non - ferrous metals may oscillate in the short term and are recommended for cautious observation; energy and chemical products have risen significantly in the short term and are recommended for cautious long - positions; precious metals may oscillate in the short term and are recommended for cautious long - positions [4]. Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as chemicals, pork, and agricultural products, the domestic stock market has risen in the short term. However, due to the slowdown in economic sentiment and the focus on Middle - East geopolitical risks, short - term stock indices may correct. It is recommended for short - term cautious observation [5]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on the night of last Friday. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1,151.16 yuan/gram, up 0.89%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 21,692 yuan/kg, up 2.39%. Spot gold and silver also rose. However, the increase in energy prices and the rise in the US dollar index have a certain suppressing effect on precious metals. It is recommended for short - term cautious long - positions [6]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market was flat last Friday, and the futures price rebounded slightly. The real - world demand remains weak, and the inventory has exceeded the 2025 high. Supply will continue to remain high in the future. It is recommended to view the steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [7][8]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded to varying degrees last Friday. The daily output of molten iron decreased due to the northern production restrictions during the Two Sessions. The current supply is in the off - season. It is recommended to view the iron ore price with an interval - oscillation mindset [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat last Friday, and the futures prices showed a strong trend. The export restrictions on South African manganese ore and the rebound in thermal coal prices boosted the silicon manganese market. It is recommended to view the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a rebound mindset [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5 - 5%, indicating a rational and moderate - stimulus economic policy. The demand during the peak season needs to be verified. The refined copper production is at a record - high level, and the inventory has been accumulating, indicating a long - term supply shortage but a short - term sufficiency [10]. - **Aluminum**: The overnight performance was weak on Friday, but the price recovered during the day. The conflict is expected to support the aluminum price, but the medium - term trend is relatively cautious due to the restart of European smelters and high domestic production [11]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate will increase in 2026. The domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level, and overseas production will recover. The demand is not optimistic, and the inventory has increased [12]. - **Lead**: The global refined lead market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern in 2026, and the price will continue to oscillate widely but be weak overall [12]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel inventory is much higher than in previous years. The RKAB quota in Indonesia has decreased significantly in 2026. The nickel price has strong support at the bottom, but the upward momentum and space are limited [13]. - **Tin**: The smelting start - up rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased seasonally. The supply will increase as the mines in Myanmar resume production. The demand is differentiated, and the price may continue to be weak in the short term [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The supply and demand are both strong, but the upward drive is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and cautious observation is recommended [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production has increased, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the cost support [15][16]. - **Polysilicon**: The production in February decreased, and the inventory has been accumulating. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - positions should be held cautiously [16]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The conflict in the Middle East has led to a substantial increase in oil prices, and it is expected that oil prices still have room to strengthen. However, attention should be paid to subsequent geopolitical developments, and short - term protection can be achieved through put options [17]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has followed the rise in oil prices. The release of floating storage of sanctioned oil may relieve the pressure on raw material prices. The inventory is at a relatively low level, providing short - term support. The short - term absolute price will continue to follow crude oil [17]. - **PX**: The price of PX has followed the rise in crude oil prices. The terminal start - up rate has rebounded, and the price is expected to continue to be strong in the short term [18]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA has followed the rise in crude oil prices. The position has increased significantly, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the later stage. Attention should be paid to terminal orders and downstream inventory [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol has followed the rise in oil prices, but the inventory is at a three - year high. The follow - up increase may be less than that of PTA and other varieties, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber has followed the energy and chemical sector and is expected to remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the increase in peak - season orders [19][20]. - **Methanol**: The market is concerned about the supply shortage due to the decrease in imports. The domestic production enthusiasm is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to the risk of downstream shutdown [20]. - **PP**: Affected by downstream replenishment and supply concerns, the inventory has decreased rapidly. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [20]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream demand has recovered, and the inventory has decreased. The cost support is strong, but attention should be paid to the abnormal fluctuations in crude oil caused by geopolitics [20]. - **Urea**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [21]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The geopolitical conflict may support the price of US soybeans, which are under pressure from the South American harvest [22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean and rapeseed meal has broken through and strengthened with the rise of US soybeans, but the domestic high - inventory and weak - demand fundamentals may suppress the spot price. The supply of rapeseed will increase, and the price may fluctuate [22]. - **Oils and Fats**: The increase in oil prices has boosted the competitiveness of biodiesel, driving the price of oils and fats. Palm oil may have a phased bull market, and domestic soybean and rapeseed oils are expected to strengthen synchronously [23]. - **Corn**: The price increase of corn has slowed down. The supply may increase, which may limit the upside risk preference [24]. - **Pigs**: The overall supply - demand situation is loose, and the industry is expected to clear excess capacity. The price is expected to remain at the bottom in March [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to concerns about inflation, causing a decline in global risk appetite. The short - term market sentiment has cooled, and the stock index may experience a correction. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, domestic Two Sessions policies, and market sentiment. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index may see increased volatility in the short term, government bonds may fluctuate in the short term, and different commodity sectors also show different trends [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: Geopolitical conflicts have pushed up oil prices, triggering inflation concerns. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have risen in the short term, and global risk appetite has declined. Domestic: The manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, a 0.3 - percentage point decrease from the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in economic prosperity. Policy: The government work report's 2026 development goals and fiscal and monetary policies are less aggressive than in 2025. Market trading is mainly focused on the Middle East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the stock index may correct, while government bonds may fluctuate. For commodities, black and non - ferrous metals may oscillate in the short term, energy and chemicals may rise significantly, and precious metals may oscillate. The recommended operation is to be cautious when going long, and to wait and see for black and non - ferrous metals [4]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as optoelectronic, power grid equipment, and education, the domestic stock market has risen in the short term. However, due to factors such as the slowdown in economic prosperity, less aggressive policies, and the impact of the Middle East geopolitical risks, the stock index may correct in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when going long in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Thursday night. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, spot gold and silver closed down. Precious metals are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when going long [5]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - In the peak season, copper demand needs verification. High sulfuric acid prices and relatively high gold and silver prices ensure smelter profits, leading to a record - high refined copper production in March (expected to reach 1.2 million tons). Domestic and foreign copper inventories have been accumulating, indicating a long - term supply shortage and a short - term sufficiency [6]. Aluminum - On Thursday, the Shanghai aluminum market fluctuated sharply. It rose overnight due to Bahrain Aluminum's supply suspension, and then declined in the afternoon due to the Iranian military's statement about the Strait of Hormuz and the lower - than - expected economic growth targets at the Two Sessions. The conflict is expected to support aluminum prices, but market sentiment remains volatile [7][8]. Zinc - The zinc fundamentals are weak. The short - term geopolitical conflict has supported zinc prices, but in the medium term, there is a risk of a breakdown in prices after the conflict eases. In 2026, zinc concentrate supply is expected to increase by 300,000 - 400,000 tons. Domestic smelting capacity is expanding, and overseas production will recover. Demand is not optimistic, and inventory pressure has increased [8]. Lead - In 2026, the global refined lead market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation, with a larger surplus than in 2025. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely and trend downward. In the short and medium term, lead production is high, demand is weak, and inventory has been increasing [9]. Nickel - As of March 5, LME nickel inventory was 287,550 tons, much higher than in previous years. Indonesia's RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, but the first - quarter production will be normal. Nickel prices have strong support at the bottom but limited upward momentum [9]. Tin - The smelting start - up rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has declined seasonally but is still higher than in previous years and will recover after the Lantern Festival. The conflict in Myanmar has caused concerns about tin supply, but there is no actual impact. Demand is weak in various industries, and domestic and LME tin inventories have increased [10]. Carbonate Lithium - On Thursday, the carbonate lithium futures contract rose 3%, and the spot price also increased. The social inventory has been decreasing. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait for it to stabilize and then go long at a low price [11]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the industrial silicon futures contract rose 2.27%. In a situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high inventory, it is priced close to cost. It is recommended to operate within a range, paying attention to the cost support [12]. Polysilicon - On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract fell 0.2%. Inventory has been accumulating at a high level, and the downstream silicon wafer price has declined rapidly. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - sellers should hold positions cautiously [12]. Energy and Chemicals Methanol - The inland methanol market has weakened, and the port basis has remained weak. Due to the geopolitical conflict, Iranian methanol plants have shut down, and shipping has been affected. The market is worried about a reduction in imports, and methanol prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [13]. PP - The geopolitical conflict has pushed up the cost of polypropylene and accelerated inventory reduction. The price has risen in the short term, but attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation to prevent a sharp decline [13]. LLDPE - The polyethylene market price has risen. After the Spring Festival, supply has increased, and demand is gradually rising. The increase in oil prices has pushed up the cost of PE, but there is a risk in the market [13]. Urea - The domestic urea market is weakening. After the Spring Festival, it was supported by agricultural demand, low inventory, and high tender prices. However, the release of commercial reserves may suppress the price in the short term. The price trend depends on the connection between industrial and agricultural demand [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean futures for May delivery fell 0.81%. The US soybean export sales and shipments data showed a mixed performance. The export sales decreased compared with the previous week and the four - week average, while the export shipments increased compared with the previous week [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean procurement for March by oil mills is basically completed. The soybean meal market is in a range - bound situation, with the top limited by high domestic inventory and weak demand and the bottom supported by the cost of US soybeans. The rapeseed meal market fluctuates with the soybean meal market. In the short term, rapeseed meal prices are expected to remain stable, but the supply pressure may increase as imported rapeseed arrives [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The oil mill opening rate has declined slightly. The soybean oil market is supported by oil prices but is facing supply - demand pressure. The rapeseed oil market is supported by oil prices and low inventory but may face supply pressure as Canadian rapeseed arrives in March [16]. Palm Oil - The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.67%. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up oil prices, which in turn has boosted palm oil prices. In addition, the risk of drought in Indonesia has increased, and the palm oil supply may be tight in the short term [17]. Corn - The corn price increase has slowed down. The prices in the northeast and northern ports are still strong, while the prices in the sales areas have stabilized. The increase in the arrival of imported barley and the expected release of policy - related grain sources may limit the upward movement of corn prices [17]. Pigs - The early - morning pig price in China was stable. The supply of pigs is abundant, and the demand is weak after the Spring Festival. Although there is support from the price - support mentality and the purchase - storage policy, the short - term rebound is limited. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of second - fattening and slaughterhouse inventory [18].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (RMB) has experienced a rapid appreciation against the US Dollar post the Spring Festival, with both onshore and offshore RMB returning to levels not seen since April 2023 [2][3][4]. Exchange Rate Performance - From February 25 to 26, the onshore and offshore RMB broke through the 6.87 and 6.84 thresholds, respectively, with the offshore RMB reaching a high of 6.82665 on February 26, marking a new high for 2023 [2][3]. - Year-to-date, the onshore and offshore RMB have appreciated approximately 2% against the US Dollar, maintaining a strong performance since breaking the 7.0 mark at the end of 2025 [2][4]. Factors Driving Appreciation - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to multiple factors, including external environment changes, domestic economic fundamentals, and market behavior [5][15]. - Improvements in Sino-US trade relations since November 2025 and a weakening US Dollar due to various economic pressures have contributed to the RMB's strength [5][15]. - Increased demand for currency settlement from enterprises has also supported the seasonal strengthening of the RMB, with significant surplus figures reported in December 2025 and January 2026 [6][16]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment remains strong, with analysts predicting continued appreciation of the RMB in the short term, supported by high export growth and favorable market conditions [8][19]. - Despite the recent strong performance, analysts caution that the RMB's future trajectory will be influenced by various factors, including the US Dollar's performance and potential geopolitical uncertainties [9][20]. Policy Considerations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system, aiming to maintain stability and prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB's value [10][21].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) has experienced a significant appreciation against the US Dollar (USD) since the beginning of the year, with both onshore and offshore rates rising approximately 2% [2][3]. Exchange Rate Movements - After the Spring Festival, the CNY quickly appreciated, with onshore and offshore rates breaking key levels of 6.87 and 6.84 respectively, reaching a high of 6.82665 on February 26, marking the highest level since April 2023 [2][3]. - The CNY's midpoint rate was adjusted up by 93 basis points to 6.9231 on February 26, reflecting a strong upward trend in the exchange rate [3]. - Year-to-date, the onshore and offshore CNY have appreciated by approximately 2.13% and 1.98% respectively, with a cumulative appreciation of nearly 450 basis points in February alone [3][4]. Factors Driving Appreciation - The recent appreciation of the CNY is attributed to multiple factors, including improvements in the external environment, domestic economic resilience, and market behavior [5]. - The stabilization of China-US trade relations since November 2025 has contributed to a favorable external backdrop for the CNY [5]. - The weakening of the USD, driven by various factors including the US fiscal deficit and inflation expectations, has also supported the appreciation of the CNY [6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment has been positive, with the offshore CNY leading the appreciation, indicating a strong market mood [4]. - Analysts expect the CNY to maintain a stable and slightly appreciating trend throughout the year, despite potential fluctuations due to external uncertainties [9][10]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to ensure the CNY remains stable at a reasonable equilibrium level, emphasizing the importance of managing expectations and preventing excessive volatility [10].

Group 1 - The recent surge in the RMB exchange rate to 6.90 has sparked excitement in the financial community, with mixed reactions regarding its sustainability [1][5] - The decline of the US dollar index to 96.8 has provided an opportunity for other currencies, including the RMB, to strengthen [1][3] - The RMB's appreciation is supported by China's strong trade surplus and increasing international demand for the currency, indicating a solid economic foundation [3][11] Group 2 - Despite the RMB's rise, the A-share market remains relatively stable, with minimal fluctuations and a cautious sentiment among investors [5][7] - The banking sector shows signs of recovery, but overall trading volume has decreased significantly, indicating a lack of confidence among retail investors [7][9] - Global risk aversion is evident, as funds are shifting towards defensive sectors, reflecting a cautious approach that may influence the Chinese market [9][11] Group 3 - The current appreciation of the RMB is a result of both internal and external factors, including trade strength, accelerated internationalization, and foreign capital inflows [11][12] - The market's current excitement should not be mistaken for a definitive bull market, as underlying economic conditions remain volatile [11][12] - Investors are advised to remain rational and not be swayed by short-term fluctuations in the market [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Hong Kong stock market experienced a sharp decline followed by a gradual recovery, primarily due to rumors regarding potential tax rate adjustments targeting the financial and internet value-added services sectors, which led to a collective drop in stock prices of related companies [1] - The rumors about tax adjustments are deemed unfounded based on analyses from RandomlyWriting and Everbright Securities, indicating that the logic behind the comparisons to other industries' tax rates is flawed and that significant tax reforms are complex and typically follow a structured process [1] - The expectation of tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar has put pressure on the valuations of Hong Kong tech stocks, particularly under foreign capital influence [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the overall liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market may be suppressed due to the anticipated continuation of loose monetary and fiscal policies in the U.S. until 2026, with a low probability of a weak dollar trend similar to the first half of 2025 [2] - The potential for a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market may depend on breakthroughs in AI and related technologies, as well as a recovery in domestic consumption, which could support long-term growth momentum for the sector [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider Hong Kong tech ETFs (513020) or the Cathay Internet ETF (513720) as potential investment options, given the current low historical valuations of the Hong Kong stock market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar (USD), driven by diverging monetary policy expectations between Australia and the US, alongside strong economic fundamentals in Australia [1][2][3]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of January 12, 2026, the AUD/USD exchange rate is at 0.6697, having increased by 0.1945% during the day, with a trading range between 0.6671 and 0.6706 [1]. - The AUD has shown a significant upward movement since the end of 2025, reaching a peak of approximately 0.68 on January 7, 2026, marking the highest level since mid-2025 [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The divergence in monetary policy expectations is a key driver of the AUD/USD exchange rate, with the market anticipating a cumulative 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2026, which is suppressing the USD [2]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) faces uncertainty regarding its policy direction, having cut rates three times in 2025, while inflation rates have rebounded significantly, with the overall inflation rate reaching 3.2% in Q3 2025 and 3.8% in October 2025, exceeding the target range of 2%-3% [2]. Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - Australia's economy is performing robustly, with GDP growth increasing to 2.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, supported by a recovery in private demand [3]. - The labor market remains tight, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.3% as of November 2025 [3]. - The AUD, as a commodity currency, is closely linked to commodity prices, particularly iron ore, which has seen a significant rebound since late 2025, positively impacting the AUD and Australian export levels [3]. Group 4: External Factors and Market Sentiment - Global risk sentiment and external risks significantly influence the AUD/USD exchange rate, with changes in risk appetite affecting the performance of the AUD [3]. - China's demand, particularly for iron ore, is crucial for Australian exports and the AUD's performance, as China is a major importer of Australian iron ore [3]. - Factors such as rising global trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions may increase short-term volatility in the AUD [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the AUD/USD exchange rate will depend on several key variables, including upcoming RBA monetary policy meetings, the pace of Fed rate cuts, and US economic data [4]. - The prices of iron ore and other commodities, changes in Chinese demand, and global trade and geopolitical dynamics will continue to play significant roles in influencing the exchange rate [4].

Group 1 - Bitcoin remains stable above $91,000 after the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut, with overall volatility nearly frozen [1][2] - The calm in the market is attributed to a continued reduction in on-chain selling pressure, as exchange inflows of Bitcoin have significantly decreased since November [1][2] - Large holders have reduced their transfers to exchanges, leading to a significant contraction in short-term selling pressure, keeping the market within a narrow range [1][2] Group 2 - CryptoQuant reports that whales incurred over $600 million in realized losses when Bitcoin first dropped below $100,000, with total estimated losses reaching $3.2 billion [3][4] - Short-term holders have been selling at a negative profit margin since mid-November, indicating that market sentiment has undergone significant release [3][4] - EasyMarkets suggests that this structural signal often corresponds to a stage where selling pressure is nearing exhaustion, explaining Bitcoin's stability around $92,000 [3][4] Group 3 - Market attention is shifting towards Tokyo, with predictions that the Bank of Japan will raise rates by 25 basis points at its December 19 meeting [4] - The rise in long-term Japanese government bond yields has raised concerns among policymakers, making local policy changes a key variable for global liquidity direction [4] - EasyMarkets believes that the Bank of Japan's decision could reshape global risk appetite, potentially leading to a trend breakthrough in the currently calm cryptocurrency market [4]

Market Overview - Global risk appetite has improved significantly, with major equity indices and commodities rising in tandem as of November 28, 2025[7] - Silver and copper prices have reached historical highs, with silver surpassing $56 per ounce and copper closing at $11,175.5 per ton[7] - The MSCI Global Index increased by 3.5%, with developed markets outperforming emerging and frontier markets[20] Equity Performance - Major U.S. indices rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising by 4.9% and the Russell 2000 increasing by 5.5%[20] - In emerging markets, the A-share market saw a 2.9% increase, with the ChiNext Index and the CSI 2000 both up by 4.5%[20] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.5% and 3.8%, respectively[20] Bond Market - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bear steepening" trend, with the 10Y-2Y yield spread widening by 3.7 basis points to 0.42%[36] - U.S. Treasury yields showed a "bull steepening" pattern, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rising to 86.4%[37] Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity indices such as the South China and CRB rose by 2%, with 10 out of 13 major commodities recording price increases[55] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.7%, dropping below 100, while the euro, pound, and yuan appreciated by 0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.4%, respectively[77] Risk Indicators - The implied offshore RMB exchange rate for gold has broken the 7 mark, indicating significant currency fluctuations[82] - Key risk indicators such as VIX and MOVE have shown a notable decline, reflecting reduced market volatility[7]

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1. Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes | Asset Class | Sub - variety | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Commodities | Iron ore | 785.50 | 1.68% | | | Corn | 2195.00 | 0.46% | | | Rebar | 3057.00 | 0.13% | | | PTA | 4666.00 | - 0.72% | | | Palm oil | 8550.00 | - 1.09% | | | Polysilicon | 53360.00 | - 1.27% | | | Copper | 85660.00 | - 1.43% | | | Crude oil | 447.40 | - 2.19% | | | Aluminum | 21340.00 | - 2.29% | | | Methanol | 2004.00 | - 2.48% | | | Soybean meal | 3012.00 | - 2.59% | | | Gold | 926.94 | - 2.75% | | | Ethylene glycol | 3808.00 | - 2.91% | | | PVC | 4456.00 | - 3.30% | | | Live pigs | 11350.00 | - 3.61% | | | Glass | 987.00 | - 4.36% | | | Silver | 11680.00 | - 5.62% | | | Coking coal | 1103.00 | - 7.47% | 2.2. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes | Stock Index | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai 50 | 2955.85 | - 2.72% | | CSI 300 | 4453.61 | - 3.77% | | CSI 500 | 6817.41 | - 5.78% | | FTSE 100 | 9539.71 | - 1.64% | | S&P 500 | 6602.99 | - 1.95% | | France CAC40 | 7982.65 | - 2.29% | | NASDAQ Index | 22273.08 | - 2.74% | | Nikkei 225 | 48625.88 | - 3.48% | | Hang Seng Index | 25220.02 | - 5.09% | 2.3. Bonds and Weekly Changes | Bond | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.59 | + 0.62bp | | 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.82 | + 0.14bp | | 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.43 | - 0.45bp | 2.4. Foreign Exchange and Weekly Changes | Foreign Exchange | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 100.15 | + 0.87% | | US Dollar Intermediate Price | 7.09 | + 0.07% | | Euro - US Dollar | 1.15 | - 0.93% | [2] 3. Commodity Views 3.1. Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy View: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Nvidia's better - than - expected performance eases AI bubble concerns; Fed officials' remarks boost rate - cut expectations; loose expectations remain, and the stock index may stage a phased recovery; significant short - term decline with strong downside support. - Bearish Logic: Fed's hawkish stance causes liquidity expectations to fluctuate; rising US Dollar Index suppresses global risk appetite; AI bubble controversy affects tech stocks; fading speculative sentiment leads to reduced trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy View: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Weak fundamental data and insufficient domestic demand support loose expectations; central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading signals policy support; medium - to - long - term allocation demand pulls interest rates down; limited incremental policies at the end of the year. - Bearish Logic: Low expectation of further rate cuts, lack of upward momentum; tight external market liquidity affects the bond market; new redemption rules suppress the bond market, especially 30 - year bonds [4]. 3.2. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: OPEC + suspends production increase, tightening supply expectations; northern hemisphere's heating season boosts demand; geopolitical risks in South America remain; short - term disruption of Libyan exports; Fed officials' calming remarks boost rate - cut expectations; potential stabilization after short - term oversold. - Bearish Logic: Persistent global supply surplus and inventory accumulation; fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations and tight liquidity; overall slowdown in fourth - quarter demand; significant decline in geopolitical risks [5]. 3.3. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Malaysia enters the production - reduction season, easing supply pressure; India's import profit recovery may increase procurement; Indonesia's B50 policy boosts long - term biodiesel demand; widening international soybean - palm oil price difference makes palm oil more cost - effective. - Bearish Logic: US cancellation of relevant energy offices is negative for biodiesel policies; weak Malaysian palm oil exports in November; large domestic inventory accumulation; winter consumption off - season and expected inventory build - up [5]. 3.4. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Low inventory provides price support; limited supply increase expected in 2026, maintaining a tight supply - demand balance; emerging sectors like energy storage drive long - term aluminum consumption. - Bearish Logic: AI bubble concerns affect metal performance; cooling Fed rate - cut expectations pressure metal prices; potential decline in photovoltaic production may suppress aluminum consumption; high prices squeeze processing profits; industry off - season affects demand and开工 [6]. 3.5. Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Potential winter maintenance in Iran may reduce imports; attention to year - end maintenance of southwest gas - based producers; increased losses in coal - to - methanol production may force a reduction in operating loads; low valuation limits downside space. - Bearish Logic: Weakening macro - drivers lead to trading of weak fundamentals; high import arrivals and expected port inventory build - up; compressed MTO profits reduce methanol procurement; weakening coal - based cost support [6]. 3.6. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy View: 2 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Fed officials' dovish signals boost rate - cut expectations; geopolitical and policy uncertainties increase gold's safe - haven appeal; US debt credit issues weaken long - term US dollar confidence; global central banks' continuous gold purchases support long - term demand. - Bearish Logic: Large internal differences within the Fed lead to unclear policy guidance; better - than - expected non - farm payrolls strengthen the hawkish stance; improving US dollar liquidity may increase market risk appetite [7]. 3.7. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Tight supply expectations of Australian coal may support import costs; potential decline in production after year - end production targets are met; increased demand from winter heating. - Bearish Logic: Supply - guarantee policies make the market cautious; increased steel mill losses lead to reduced hot metal production; significant increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance; more online auction failures indicate weak demand; high coking coal inventory in coke enterprises reduces restocking willingness [7].