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博弈科创债ETF的抢券行情:投什么,怎么投
Haitong Securities· 2025-06-26 08:25
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expansion rhythm of index constituent bonds is significantly slower than the growth rate of credit bond ETF scale. Amid the bond - snatching market, low - valuation transactions of constituent bonds emerge. There are three aspects to consider: "far", "发", and "扩". "Far" involves the conduction mechanism of corporate bond - China Securities - China Bond interest rates; "发" means that buying in the primary market can still be profitable during the bond - snatching period; "扩" refers to the analysis of constituent bonds benefiting from the issuance and expansion of science and technology innovation bond ETFs [1]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Bond - Snatching Market Driven by the Expansion of Credit Bond ETFs - As of June 20, 2025, the total scale of 8 benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs reached 106.6 billion yuan, an increase of 77.7 billion yuan compared to the end of March, with a 41.7 - billion - yuan increase since June. The expansion rhythm of index constituent bonds is significantly slower than the growth rate of credit bond ETF scale. In the Shanghai market - making aspect, the scale of Shanghai - based benchmark market - making ETFs accounts for 11.0% of the credit bond index constituent bonds, a 4.5 - percentage - point increase compared to the end of May. In the Shenzhen market - making aspect, it accounts for 12.4%, a 4.8 - percentage - point increase compared to the end of May [1][3]. - During the bond - snatching market, low - valuation transactions of constituent bonds emerge. ETF product preferences lean towards constituent bonds with larger outstanding scales and higher valuation stability. For example, in the Shanghai market, the number of low - valuation transactions and transaction amounts of the top 3 constituent entities have significantly increased since June, with an average low - valuation amplitude of - 1.7BP, a 1BP increase compared to May, and the transaction amount from June 1 to June 20 was 5.37 billion yuan, a 1.61 - billion - yuan increase compared to the whole of May. In the Shenzhen market, trading volume has increased significantly since the second quarter, with an average low - valuation transaction amplitude of - 4.5BP in June, a 0.9BP increase compared to May, and the transaction amount from June 1 to June 20 was 3.94 billion yuan, a 1.26 - billion - yuan increase compared to the whole of May [1][7]. 2. Game "Far": The Conduction Mechanism of Corporate Bond - China Securities - China Bond Interest Rates - The impact of low - valuation transactions on bond valuations is mainly reflected in two dimensions. Firstly, the valuation divergence between exchange - traded corporate bonds and comparable inter - bank bonds. For example, the valuation difference between 24 Zhonghua 16 and its comparable inter - bank bond 25 Zhonghua MTN001 was within 2BP before the end of May, but has widened to 7BP since June. Secondly, the impact of the surge in credit bond ETFs on the yield curve. The duration of Shenzhen credit bond ETF is 3.05 years, and that of Shanghai credit bond ETF is 4.11 years. The surge in credit bond ETFs boosts the allocation demand for 3 - 5 - year credit bonds, flattens the yield curve, narrows the credit spreads of medium - and high - grade bonds, and drives down the overall valuation of high - grade credit bonds [1][12]. 3. Game "发": Buying in the Primary Market Can Still Be Profitable During the Bond - Snatching Period - Newly issued science and technology innovation bonds in the primary market are mainly issued at low valuations, with the coupon rate at issuance being on average - 6BP lower than the valuation. Among 53 non - financial science and technology innovation bonds with comparable bonds, 13 are issued at high valuations, 40 at low valuations, 13 with a low - valuation exceeding - 10BP, and the maximum low - valuation is - 25BP. Currently, most science and technology innovation bonds' valuations are within ±2BP of comparable bonds. The secondary bond - snatching market may spread to the primary market. Since May, the situation of weak profit - making effects caused by low - valuation issuance of science and technology innovation bonds may change. Some low - valuation issued bonds still have potential for discovery, and it is recommended to focus on science and technology innovation bonds with a low - valuation of within - 5BP in the primary market [1][17]. 4. Game "扩": Analysis of Constituent Bonds Benefiting from the Issuance and Expansion of Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs - There are two main lines for constituent bond discovery: bonds with a remaining term of over 5 years and an outstanding scale of over 1.5 billion yuan. Long - term science and technology innovation bonds can significantly enhance the portfolio duration and scale expansion. Bonds included in both the science and technology innovation bond index and the credit bond benchmark market - making index may benefit from both the expansion of credit bond ETFs and the issuance of the science and technology innovation bond index. Among them, non - perpetual bonds may have stronger allocation potential [1][19].
信用热点聚焦系列之十:中航产融相关影响预判
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 05:48
证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期:2025 年 04 月 30 日 中航产融相关影响预判 ——信用热点聚焦系列之十 核心观点 目前中航产融估值波动体现的是流动性风险而非信用风险,由于短期实质违约风险低, 可博弈高估值成交机会。本次阶段性冲击下的收益率接近见顶,对于负债端稳定的自 营账户和无过多限制的配置户而言具备配置价值。 ❑ 中航产融复牌前后债券成交情况 中航产融 4 月 23 日发布债券复牌公告,公司债券转场外兑付事宜未取得债券持 有人会议表决通过,相关债券于 2025 年 4 月 24 日复牌。 中航产融近一周债券成交情况:整体成交价格以折价成交为主,期限以 2 年以内 短端品种为主,长期限跌的稍多,一年以内债券相对波动较小。4 月 24 日复牌首 日偏离估值成交均值为 195bp;25 日偏离估值成交均值为 77bp,偏离估值成交幅 度收敛;28 日成交金额为上一交易日的 2.4 倍,偏离估值成交均值反弹,为 107bp。 中航产融估值波动情况:以 22 产融 02 为例,4 月 14 日至 4 月 23 日期间,债券 估值呈小幅上行趋势,4 月 24 日复 ...
银行间债市估值业务迎新规
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-04-29 22:04
Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Self-Regulatory Guidelines for Bond Valuation Business in the Interbank Bond Market (Trial)" aims to enhance the professionalism, transparency, and competitiveness of bond valuation services in China’s interbank market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The "Valuation Guidelines" are based on the "Management Measures for Bond Valuation Business in the Interbank Bond Market" issued by the People's Bank of China in 2023, which set basic conditions for valuation institutions and emphasized internal governance, data source selection, valuation methods, and information disclosure [1]. - The guidelines aim to improve the scientific nature of the entire valuation production process and address transparency issues in the market [1][2]. Group 2: Valuation Institution Requirements - Valuation institutions are required to adhere to principles of independence, objectivity, and prudence, ensuring the reliability of data and the scientific nature of valuation models [2]. - Institutions must maintain complete records of the valuation process for no less than 20 years and are encouraged to introduce independent auditing mechanisms for external supervision [2]. Group 3: Market Impact - The guidelines are expected to create a more favorable financing environment for private enterprises by ensuring fair valuation results that consider both secondary and primary market prices, potentially reducing the cost of bond issuance [3]. - The guidelines emphasize the importance of transparency in valuation processes, allowing for better communication with users and reducing the "black box" nature of bond valuations [3].
交易商协会发布债券估值指引 专家称有利于促进市场多元化发展
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-04-22 18:18
近日,为加强估值业务自律管理,促进市场健康发展,中国银行间市场交易商协会(下称"交易商协会") 发布《指引》。 宋伟健表示,本次交易商协会发布《指引》,有利于进一步促进债券估值市场多元化发展,完善银行间 市场自律管理环链,使估值能够更好地服务于债券投融资场景,例如科学合理的债券估值可改善民企融 资环境,吸引更多优质民企在银行间债券市场融资。 中新网北京4月22日电(记者陈康亮)针对近日发布的《银行间债券市场债券估值业务自律指引(试行)》 (下称《指引》),中债资信业务创新部负责人宋伟健22日在接受中新网记者采访时表示,此举有利于进 一步促进债券估值市场多元化发展。 宋伟健表示,《指引》还鼓励使用多元化估值,在市场剧烈波动等特殊时期,通过发挥多估值交叉校验 作用,平衡估值非理性波动,民企债券对二级市场投资人的吸引力增加,进而带动提升民企债券的流动 性。在此基础上,建议民营企业进一步加深对债券估值的理解,主动与投资人开展互动沟通,在监管机 构、发行人、投资人和估值机构等多方合力下,共同推动民营企业债券市场焕发新的活力。(完) (文章来源:中国新闻网) 在宋伟健看来,《指引》有以下几点内容值得关注:一是围绕市场关注 ...
交易商协会发布债券估值业务自律指引 估值应综合考虑一二级市场价格
Core Viewpoint - The recent release of the "Self-Regulatory Guidelines for Bond Valuation Business in the Interbank Bond Market" aims to enhance self-regulation in bond valuation, ensuring that valuation reflects the fair value of bonds and protects investor interests [1][2]. Group 1: Guidelines Overview - The guidelines specify that valuation institutions must comprehensively consider both secondary and primary market prices to facilitate effective interaction between the two markets [2]. - Emphasis is placed on the necessity for bond valuations to adhere to net value requirements and objectively reflect the fair value of bonds, thereby safeguarding investor interests [2]. - The guidelines encourage the development of multiple valuation sources, promoting healthy competition in the interbank bond valuation market [2]. Group 2: Implementation and Impact - Since the People's Bank of China issued the "Management Measures for Bond Valuation Business in the Interbank Bond Market" in 2023, there has been an improvement in the operational norms of valuation institutions and the speed and scope of information disclosure [1]. - The guidelines are expected to enhance the diversified development of the bond valuation market and improve self-regulatory management in the interbank market, which could positively impact the financing environment for private enterprises [1][2].