固定收益 | 固定收益专题 固定收益 证券研究报告 （3）河南、山东、陕西等区域整体估值相对较高，区域整体估值在 2.23-2.34%区间，2.2%以上债券占比在 44-60%区间。其中山东区域 2.2%以 上存量超 8000 亿元，公募非永续存量超 2900 亿元。 （4）重庆、天津、云南、广西、贵州等区域，2.2%以上债券占比在 38-72% 区间，贵州省占比居高。重庆区域 2.2%以上债券集中在 3 年期以上隐含 AA(2)，天津、云南、广西区域在隐含 AA 仍有一定存量。 聚焦省内，2.2%以上城投债如何分布？ 我们进一步聚焦省内，仍根据上文所梳理的 4 个梯队来观察，聚焦 2.2%以 上债券，并关注其中的公募非永续债： （4）重庆、天津、云南、广西、贵州。 2.2%以上，产业债有哪些？ 2.2%以上信用债一览 2.2%以上，城投债有哪些？ 截至 2025 年 8 月 29 日，全国存量城投债规模为 185744 亿元，估值在 2.2% 以上存量债有 60791 亿元，占比 32.7%；估值在 2.2%以上的公募非永续城 投债有 25218 亿元，占整体存量债比重 13.6%。分省来看： （1）江苏、 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View The report analyzes the valuation price deviations of different types of bonds, including AA-rated urban investment bonds, the top 50 individual bonds with the largest net price declines, the top 50 individual bonds with the largest net price increases, and the top 50 Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with the largest net price increases. It identifies the bonds with the most significant valuation price deviations in each category [2]. 2. Summary by Category 2.1 Discounted AA Urban Investment Bonds - "25 Xiaogao 01" has the largest valuation price deviation among AA urban investment bonds with a deviation of -0.35% and a remaining term of 4.85 years [2][4]. 2.2 Top 50 Individual Bonds with the Largest Net Price Declines - "24 Linfen 03" has the largest valuation price deviation among the top 50 individual bonds with a net price decline, with a deviation of -0.46% and a remaining term of 3.98 years [2][5]. 2.3 Top 50 Individual Bonds with the Largest Net Price Increases - "22 Vanke 06" has the largest valuation price deviation among the top 50 individual bonds with a net price increase, with a deviation of 0.37% and a remaining term of 1.92 years [2][8]. 2.4 Top 50 Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds with the Largest Net Price Increases - "25 Minsheng Bank Perpetual Bond 01" has the largest valuation price deviation among the top 50 Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with a net price increase, with a deviation of 0.16% and a remaining term of 4.88 years [2][12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent 10% drop in the trading price of "21 Government Bond 14" is considered a normal market fluctuation, with minimal impact on overall bond valuation and institutional product valuations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On April 8, "21 Government Bond 14" experienced a 10% drop in price, trading at 90 yuan, leading to a temporary suspension of trading due to abnormal fluctuations [3]. - The bond had a total transaction amount of 29,700 yuan with a trading volume of 33 lots, indicating limited trading activity [3]. Group 2: Valuation Impact - The valuation of bonds is primarily determined by factors such as coupon rates, duration, and risk-free interest rates, making the impact of small transactions on overall bond valuation negligible [2]. - Despite the significant drop in price, it is expected that the bond's valuation may slightly increase compared to the previous day, reflecting stability in the bond market [2]. Group 3: Trading Dynamics - The bond market operates differently from the stock market, with bond pricing being more influenced by daily valuations rather than individual small transactions [1][2]. - Large holders of bonds make investment decisions based on overall bond valuations, thus minimizing the effect of sporadic small trades on market perception [2].

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Self-Regulatory Guidelines for Bond Valuation Business in the Interbank Bond Market (Trial)" is expected to promote the diversified development of the bond valuation market and improve the self-regulatory management chain in the interbank market [1][2] Group 1: Guidelines Overview - The guidelines aim to enhance self-regulatory management and promote healthy market development [1] - They emphasize that bond valuation should reflect fair value objectively and maintain the interests of investors [1] - The guidelines encourage the development of multiple valuation sources to foster healthy competition in the bond valuation market [1] Group 2: Impact on Private Enterprises - The guidelines are expected to create a more favorable financing environment for private enterprises by ensuring the fairness of valuation results [2] - They require valuation compilation to consider both secondary and primary market prices, which can help reduce the price gap between the two markets for private enterprise bonds [2] - Increased transparency in valuation processes is anticipated, allowing private enterprises to better understand and communicate with investors, potentially leading to more reasonable financing costs [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The guidelines promote the use of diversified valuations, especially during market volatility, to balance irrational valuation fluctuations [2] - This approach is expected to enhance the attractiveness of private enterprise bonds to secondary market investors, thereby improving their liquidity [2] - Private enterprises are encouraged to deepen their understanding of bond valuation and engage in proactive communication with investors to revitalize the private enterprise bond market [2]