Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing significant turmoil due to political uncertainty and fiscal concerns, with the 10-year bond yield surpassing critical levels, indicating heightened market anxiety [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - On July 15, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 2.5 basis points to 1.595%, the highest level since 2008. The 20-year yield increased by 3.5 basis points to 2.64%, and the 30-year yield rose by 4 basis points to 3.195%, both reaching levels not seen since 1999. Bonds with maturities of 20 years or more have seen yields rise by at least 20 basis points this month [1][3]. - The rise in the 10-year yield is particularly concerning as it directly impacts the economy, being a benchmark for fixed mortgage rates, which will increase financing costs for businesses and households [3][5]. Group 2: Political Context and Market Reactions - The upcoming July 20 Senate elections are a key factor driving the rise in bond yields, with concerns that the ruling coalition may lose, leading to a significant shift in fiscal policy and increased selling pressure in the bond market [5][6]. - Polls indicate a declining trend in expected seats for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, raising fears of a potential shift to more populist policies that could exacerbate fiscal deficits and undermine investor confidence in bonds [5][7]. - Analysts warn that if the ruling coalition loses, it could trigger a sell-off of long-term bonds by foreign investors, particularly due to fears of potential consumption tax cuts [5][7]. Group 3: Global Context - The rise in Japanese bond yields is part of a broader global trend, with long-term government bond yields falling worldwide as investors express concerns over government spending exceeding sustainable levels [7][8]. - The Bank of Japan's governor has indicated that while the impact of long-term yields on the economy is limited compared to short-term debt, the situation will be closely monitored [8].