1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With a tight end - of - quarter liquidity situation, market rumors about fund fee reform and large banks' bond purchases, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, and the yields of ultra - long bonds reached new highs. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, and both the term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened [1][9][36]. - As of September 26, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 35BP, at a relatively low historical level; the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 8BP, at an extremely low historical level. In August, the downward pressure on the domestic economy continued to increase, with the estimated GDP year - on - year growth rate at about 3.8%, a decline from July. There was still deflation risk with CPI at - 0.4% and PPI at - 2.9%. The bond market adjustment was mainly due to the disappointment in 2024 and changes in the macro - narrative. Since late August, stocks and bonds have gradually become desensitized. Considering the sluggish economy in August, it is expected that the trading focus of the bond market will shift to fundamentals, and the bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [2][3][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations last week. With a tight end - of - quarter liquidity situation, market rumors about fund fee reform and large banks' bond purchases, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, and the yields of ultra - long bonds reached new highs. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. Both the term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened [1][9]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of September 26, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 35BP, at a relatively low historical level. In August, the downward pressure on the domestic economy continued to increase, and there was still deflation risk. The bond market adjustment was mainly due to the disappointment in 2024 and changes in the macro - narrative. It is expected that the trading focus of the bond market will shift to fundamentals, and the bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [2][10]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of September 26, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 8BP, at an extremely low historical level. Similar to the situation of 30 - year treasury bonds, it is expected that the trading focus of the bond market will shift to fundamentals, and the bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [3][11]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 23.3 trillion. As of August 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 233,878 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.9% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [12]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds was relatively large, but it decreased significantly compared with the week before last. A total of 1,386 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued, all of which were local government bonds. By term, 161 billion yuan with a 15 - year term, 482 billion yuan with a 20 - year term, and 743 billion yuan with a 30 - year term were issued [19]. 3.2.2 This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 256 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 12,544 billion yuan, accounting for 13.4% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume increased by 91 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.1% [29]. 3.3.2 Yields - The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations last week. With a tight end - of - quarter liquidity situation, market rumors about fund fee reform and large banks' bond purchases, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, and the yields of ultra - long bonds reached new highs. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by 1BP, 3BP, 2BP, and 3BP respectively [36]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, and the absolute level was relatively low. The benchmark 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread was 35BP, a change of 3BP from the week before last, at the 15% quantile since 2010 [46]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, and the absolute level was relatively low. The benchmark spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds was 8BP, and the spread between 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 19BP, with changes of 1BP and 4BP respectively from the week before last, at the 8% and 13% quantiles since 2010 [47]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2512 closed at 114.19 yuan, a decrease of 0.6%. The total trading volume was 742,500 lots (- 56,124 lots), and the open interest was 171,700 lots (an increase of 2,178 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the week before last, and the open interest increased slightly [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the economic growth data for August continued to decline compared to July, some stock indices slightly corrected, and the third call between the Chinese and US presidents this year led to a bond market that first rose and then fell, with ultra - long bonds experiencing a small decline. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds slightly decreased last week but remained very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, while the variety spread widened [1][11]. - As of September 19, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 32BP, at a historically low level. The economic downward pressure in August continued to increase, with the estimated GDP year - on - year growth rate in August at about 3.8%, a further decline from July. With an 8 - month CPI of - 0.4% and PPI of - 2.9%, deflation risks persisted. The bond market adjustment was mainly due to the disappointment in 2024 and the change in macro - narrative. Considering the desensitization of stocks and bonds since late August and the still - sluggish economy in August, the bond market trading mainline is expected to shift to fundamentals, and the short - term bond market is expected to rebound from an oversold position [2][12]. - As of September 19, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 7BP, at a historically extremely low position. The economic situation and reasons for the bond market adjustment were similar to those of 30 - year treasury bonds, and the short - term bond market was also expected to rebound from an oversold position [3][13]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review - **Ultra - long Bond Review**: The 8 - month economic data in August decreased compared to July, stock indices slightly corrected, and after the call between the Chinese and US presidents, the bond market first rose and then fell, with ultra - long bonds slightly falling. Trading activity slightly decreased but was still very active. The term spread narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][11]. - **Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook**: For 30 - year treasury bonds and 20 - year CDB bonds, the spreads were at low historical levels. The economic downward pressure in August increased, with low GDP growth and deflation risks. The bond market adjustment was due to two reasons, and the short - term bond market was expected to rebound from an oversold position [2][3][12]. - **Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview**: The balance of ultra - long bonds was 23.3 trillion. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week, the issuance of ultra - long bonds was relatively large, with a slight increase compared to the previous week. In terms of varieties, treasury bonds, local government bonds, and bank sub - bonds had significant issuances. In terms of terms, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance [19]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The announced issuance plan for this week was 138.6 billion, all of which were ultra - long local government bonds [23]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a turnover of 1245.3 billion, accounting for 13.4% of the total bond turnover. The trading activity slightly decreased compared to the previous week, with different changes in turnover and proportion for different varieties [27]. - **Yield**: Due to the decline in economic data and the call between the Chinese and US presidents, the bond market first rose and then fell, with ultra - long bonds slightly falling. The yields of different - term treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds had different changes [36]. - **Spread Analysis**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed last week, with a low absolute level. The variety spread widened, also with a low absolute level [47][48]. - **30 - year Treasury Bond Futures**: Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract T2503 closed at 114.8 yuan, with a decrease of 0.04%. The total trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The adjustment of the bond market is mainly due to the disappointment in 2024 and the change in the macro - narrative. Considering the desensitization of stocks and bonds since late August and the entry into the window period of August economic data, it is expected that the trading mainline of the bond market will shift to the fundamentals, and the bond market is expected to rebound in the short term after an over - decline [2][3][12] Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, the draft for soliciting opinions on the new regulations for fund sales fees was released, leading to an increase in the redemption volume of some bond funds and a certain negative feedback in the bond market. In addition, inflation in August was still low, financial data was weak, and the capital side tightened marginally. The central bank announced a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase. The ultra - long bonds tumbled throughout the week and rebounded slightly on Friday. In terms of trading volume, the trading activity of ultra - long bonds rebounded slightly last week and was very active. In terms of spreads, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11] Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bonds: As of September 12, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 32BP, at a historically low level. The domestic economy in July still faced downward pressure, with the estimated year - on - year GDP growth rate in July at about 4.3%, a significant decline from the growth rate in the first half of this year. In terms of inflation, the CPI in August was - 0.4%, and the PPI was - 2.9%, indicating the existence of deflation risks. The current bond market decline features stable short - term bonds and an enlarged term spread. The bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [2][12] - 20 - year CDB Bonds: As of September 12, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 4BP, at a historically extremely low position. Similar to the situation of 30 - year Treasury bonds, the domestic economy faced downward pressure in July, and deflation risks existed. The bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [3][13] Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeds 23.3 trillion yuan. As of August 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of more than 14 years was 23.3878 trillion yuan (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.9% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra - long bonds. By variety, Treasury bonds account for 26.9%, local government bonds 67.3%, etc. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14] Primary Market Weekly Issuance - The issuance volume of ultra - long bonds increased significantly last week. From September 8 to 12, 2025, a total of 200.6 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume of ultra - long bonds increased significantly. By variety, Treasury bonds were 35 billion yuan, local government bonds 145.6 billion yuan, etc. By term, 14 billion yuan was issued with a 15 - year term, 44.6 billion yuan with a 20 - year term, etc. [19] This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week totals 224.2 billion yuan. By variety, ultra - long Treasury bonds are 117 billion yuan, ultra - long local government bonds 97.2 billion yuan, and ultra - long financial bonds 10 billion yuan [21] Secondary Market Trading Volume - The trading of ultra - long bonds was very active last week. The trading volume of ultra - long bonds was 1.2793 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.6% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, the trading volume of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds was 1.0486 trillion yuan, accounting for 41.9% of the total Treasury bond trading volume; the trading volume of ultra - long - term local bonds was 213.3 billion yuan, accounting for 49.0% of the total local bond trading volume; the trading volume of ultra - long - term policy - financial bonds was 10.6 billion yuan, accounting for 0.4% of the total policy - financial bond trading volume; the trading volume of ultra - long - term government agency bonds was 700 million yuan, accounting for 32.6% of the total government agency bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly last week [24][25] Yield - Due to the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the new regulations for fund sales fees and other factors, the ultra - long bonds tumbled throughout the week and rebounded slightly on Friday. For Treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 9BP, 8BP, 7BP, and 8BP respectively to 2.07%, 2.18%, 2.18%, and 2.22%. For CDB bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 11BP, 9BP, 7BP, and 5BP respectively to 2.16%, 2.22%, 2.26%, and 2.40%. For local bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 8BP, 10BP, and 10BP respectively to 2.30%, 2.36%, and 2.36%. For railway bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 7BP, 7BP, and 5BP respectively to 2.24%, 2.26%, and 2.38% [33] Spread Analysis - Term Spread: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 32BP, a change of 4BP compared with the previous week, at the 14% quantile since 2010 [40] - Variety Spread: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed last week, with an absolute low level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and Treasury bonds was 4BP, and the spread between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds was 8BP, changing by 0BP and - 3BP respectively compared with the previous week, at the 6% and 5% quantiles since 2010 [46] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.27 yuan, with a decline of 0.93%. The total trading volume of 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 417,000 lots (- 355,481 lots), and the open interest was 160,600 lots (17,947 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly [51]