截至12月19日，共有106家公司在香港交易所上市，融资总额达到2746亿港元，其中四家公司更跻身2025年全球十大新股之列。在香港交易所上市的公司 通过再融资筹集了660亿美元，彰显香港资本市场的活力和深度。 转自：新华财经 新华财经香港12月29日电（记者林迎楠）2025年收官之际回看，在全球主要市场波动加剧、地缘政治与货币政策不确定性并存的背景下，港股并未复制此 前"估值塌陷—情绪低迷"的单边曲线，而是呈现出资金回流、板块轮动与制度效应逐步显现的复杂图景。 市场观点认为，港股市场表现出结构性上涨与阶段性调整并存的特征，资金流、IPO活跃度和政策环境是推动涨势的核心动力，而宏观不确定性与外部风 险则是短期波动的主因。 IPO回暖与制度效应显现 作为国际金融中心的重要组成部分，一级市场的变化为2025年的港股注入新变量。 2025年港股IPO节奏明显回暖，科技、先进制造、生物医药等领域的新股占比提升。与前些年"数量恢复但质量分化"不同，2025年市场对上市企业的筛选 标准也更为严格。 港交所数据显示，2025年，香港新股市场融资额位居全球第一，融资额较去年明显上升，平均每日成交额更创下历史新高。现货市场20 ...

本报讯 （记者丁蓉）12月14日，由平安期货有限公司（以下简称"平安期货"）、平安证券股份有限公 司（以下简称"平安证券"）联合主办的2026全球交易者大会暨中国平安第七届全国期货实盘大赛颁奖典 礼举行。作为已经陪伴交易者走过7年风雨的年度大会，本届会议特邀中加基金首席经济学家邓海清、 平安基金权益投资基金经理周思聪、平安期货研究所所长李晨阳及全国期货实盘大赛获奖选手来到现 场，为与会者破除迷惘，提供更多关于2026的解题思路。 中加基金首席经济学家邓海清指出，2026年资本市场生态与资金结构将迎来深刻变革，虽面临多重不确 定性，但中国经济向高端制造、科技创新转型的核心趋势已然明朗，那些能够代表中国在新一轮全球产 业与金融秩序重塑中占据有利位置的企业，将成为这个时代最具价值的资产锚点。 平安基金权益投资基金经理周思聪表示，在第四次科技革命深入演进的背景下，AI、算力、半导体、 创新药等领域迎来关键时刻。其中中国创新药行业在技术周期、政策周期和利率环境的三重支撑下厚积 薄发，2026年整个行业依然存在贝塔行情，且个股的阿尔法行情也将起步。 平安期货研究所所长李晨阳结合海内外政治经济格局变化，指出贵金属长期上行格 ...

研报强调传统的拉长久期获取资本利得策略难度大幅上升，不同类型机构需要调整操作思路——交易性 资金应转向中短久期套息加杠杆策略，配置型资金需要耐心等待保险资金入场带来的买点，而年初以来 的套牢盘则应把握反弹机会逐步减仓。 定价权转移的宏观逻辑 申万宏源指出债券市场的定价权正在经历2022年以来的首次重大逆转。 在2022年之前，30年国债并非主流品种，长债与超长债的定价权牢牢掌握在配置盘手中。 但2022年后，随着新旧动能切换、信用收缩加剧和物价低迷预期深化，拉久期成为市场主流策略。大量 中长债基金发行，叠加交易性机构深度参与，债市定价权逐渐被交易盘主导。 进入2025年，市场环境再次发生根本性变化。 央行降准降息幅度保持克制，反内卷提振物价、存款搬家资产配置再平衡、资产荒压力缓解等新的宏观 叙事正在形成。 申万宏源认为中国债券市场的定价权正在发生深刻转移。 12月15日，申万宏源黄伟平团队发表研报，指出尽管10月以来国内经济数据边际回落、央行重启买债等 利好因素出现，债券利率下行幅度却相当有限，市场呈现利多出尽态势。 申万宏源认为这背后反映的是长债和超长债的定价权正从交易盘向配置盘转移。 央行流动性投放能够保 ...

证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 15 日 财政发力仍待观察，实体需求仍弱 ——11 月金融数据点评 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 券 策 相关研究 债 券 研 究 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 2025 年 11 月新增人民币贷款 0.39 万亿元（2024 年 11 月为 0.58 万亿元），新增社 融 2.49 万亿元（2024 年 11 月为 2.33 万亿元），社融同比增速为 8.5%（2025 年 10 月为 8.5%），M2 同比 8%（2025 年 10 月为 8.2%）。 ⚫ 第一，社融同比增速持平上 ...

风险提示：数据来源基金定期报告、wind，相关业绩经托管行核对，过往表现不代表未来。十年国债 ETF成立于2017年8月4日，2017年-2025年上半年净值增长率/业绩比较基准为：-1.55%/-1.01%； 7.6%/8.47%；2.49%/4.81%；1.92%/2.09%；5.19%/5.78%；2.52%/2.87%；4.37%/4.83%；9.02%/8.09%； 0.67%/-0.24%。提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 相关机构表示，当前债市回归"上有顶、下有底"的窄幅震荡格局，宏观经济偏冷的环境为债市提供支 撑。从宏观基本面来看，经济处于周期底部或弱复苏初期，新旧动能切换与"高质量发展"是核心方针， 政策避免对旧动能强力刺激，这一偏冷状态将延续。需求端方面，出口结构改善具备韧性 ...

每日经济新闻 值得关注的是，十年国债ETF成立以来经历了2018-2024年共计7个完整自然年度，均保持每年正收益， 有望成为穿越牛熊周期的资产配置利器。 风险提示：数据来源基金定期报告、wind，相关业绩经托管行核对，过往表现不代表未来。十年国债 ETF成立于2017年8月4日，2017年-2025年上半年净值增长率/业绩比较基准为：-1.55%/-1.01%； 7.6%/8.47%；2.49%/4.81%；1.92%/2.09%；5.19%/5.78%；2.52%/2.87%；4.37%/4.83%；9.02%/8.09%； 0.67%/-0.24%。提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 相关机构表示，当前股债跷跷板效应凸显，债券资产性价比逐步提升，成为震荡市场中的优质防御配 置。从经济基本面来看，经济处于新 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer sector showed strong performance in early trading, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF (Huashan, 159285) rising by 0.97% and the Food and Beverage ETF (516900) increasing by 0.69% [1] - The technology sector remains active, with the Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588290) up 55.66% year-to-date and the ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) up 57.23% year-to-date as of December 11 [1] Group 2: Economic Policy and Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasized the importance of domestic demand, aiming to build a strong domestic market and implement actions to boost consumption [1] - The conference plans to expand the supply of quality goods and services, optimize the implementation of "two new" policies, and remove unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential [1] - The conference also aims to stabilize investment, increase the scale of central budget investments, and effectively stimulate private investment through new policy financial tools [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the Chinese consumer market is complex and diverse, presenting new opportunities, with significant growth potential for both new consumption enterprises and leading traditional consumer companies [1] - Guotai Junan Securities noted a clear divergence in micro-enterprise profitability, primarily concentrated in high-growth sectors such as TMT and industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, indicating a structural recovery driven by new economy sectors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant downturns, with many bond funds facing substantial declines, leading to cautious market sentiment and speculation about credit risks [2][5]. Group 1: Recent Performance of Bond Funds - A bond fund under Huachen Future Fund saw a weekly decline of over 7%, erasing nearly two years of accumulated returns, with a year-to-date return of -6.65% as of December 5 [3][4]. - Approximately 70% of bond funds in the market have experienced declines over the past month, with over 2,700 bond funds seeing net value decreases [5][6]. - The yield curve has steepened, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond indices dropping by 0.31% and 3.29% respectively in the past month [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculations - The decline in the Huachen Future Fund is linked to the collective drop in Vanke bonds, particularly after Vanke announced a meeting regarding the extension of its bonds, causing panic in the market [4][6]. - The market is speculating that the Huachen Future Fund may have been affected by Vanke's bonds, which have seen a price drop of over 70% since November 26 [4]. Group 3: Broader Market Trends and Influences - The bond market's downturn is attributed to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations and potential impacts from new sales regulations, which may increase redemption pressures on bond funds [6][7]. - The recent announcement of Vanke's bond extension has created emotional shocks in the bond market, affecting investor sentiment and expectations regarding the real estate sector [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Opportunities - Despite the current downturn, there is still a broad demand for bond allocations, and investors are encouraged to look for opportunities following market adjustments [2][8]. - Analysts suggest that the bond market is transitioning into a phase characterized by low rates, low volatility, and low spreads, indicating a shift towards trading strategies that capitalize on market corrections [8][9].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the Chinese economy, particularly focusing on the bond and stock markets, macroeconomic policies, and consumer behavior in 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Transition and Growth - It is anticipated that by 2026, China will experience a transition from traditional economic drivers to new ones, with emerging industries and high-end manufacturing gaining prominence [1][3][4]. - The "three new economies" are expected to account for 18% of GDP in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.7% [1][4]. Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment is projected to benefit from industrial upgrades and international expansion, while infrastructure investment remains resilient due to proactive fiscal policies [1][4]. - Real estate investment may continue to drag down overall economic performance [1][4]. Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market in 2025 is characterized by strong policy-driven growth but weak endogenous growth, with a low household consumption rate compared to developed countries [5][6]. - There is a need to repair household balance sheets and focus on lower-tier cities for potential growth in consumption [5][6]. Regional Consumption Patterns - Higher consumption tendencies are observed in central and western provinces, influenced by income growth expectations and leverage burdens [6]. - Future consumption policies may focus on lower-tier markets to enhance spending [6]. Service Consumption Trends - The proportion of per capita service consumption has been rising, reaching 46.1% by 2024, indicating a shift towards service-oriented consumption policies [7]. Inflation and Price Index Predictions - CPI is expected to rise moderately in 2026, driven by core CPI improvements and rising pork prices, while oil prices may exert downward pressure [8]. - PPI is projected to narrow its year-on-year decline, potentially turning positive in the second and third quarters of 2026 [8]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Outlook - Fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to be more aggressive, with an increase in the general fiscal deficit rate and the issuance of special bonds [10]. - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with anticipated rate cuts and adjustments to the monetary policy framework [11]. Market Behavior Predictions - In a neutral macroeconomic environment, asset allocation will be driven by stock-bond price ratios and institutional behaviors [12]. - In scenarios of economic recovery, the stock market may enter a bullish phase, while long-term interest rates could face adjustment risks [13]. Additional Important Insights - The analysis emphasizes the need for a comprehensive five-dimensional framework to understand market dynamics, incorporating fiscal inflation and government bond pricing [2]. - The records highlight the importance of structural adjustments and policy support to enhance consumer confidence and spending [5][6].

Core Insights - The power equipment industry is benefiting from a surge in global electricity demand, with the International Energy Agency projecting an average annual growth rate of 4% in global electricity demand from 2025 to 2027, primarily driven by the expansion of data centers and AI training clusters [1] Industry Summary - Strong demand for UHV (Ultra High Voltage) in China, with the first five batches of bidding orders expected to grow by 30% year-on-year before 2025 [1] - Imbalance in overseas grid investment and renewable energy integration, with over 3000 GW of projects awaiting grid connection, driving demand for cables [1] - In the photovoltaic equipment sector, despite a projected adjustment in China's installed capacity to 180 GW in 2026, global demand remains high, with expected global installations of 590 GW, 538 GW, and 599 GW from 2025 to 2027 [1] - Energy storage equipment is also experiencing explosive growth, with global installations expected to reach 92 GW, 123 GW, and 138 GW during the same period, and battery shipment volumes projected to grow year-on-year by 69%, 50%, and 10% [1] - Industry technology upgrades and policy support, such as the "anti-involution" benchmark, are extending the lifecycle of products, optimizing the supply-demand structure, and allowing the power and photovoltaic equipment sectors to continue benefiting from the transition between old and new growth drivers [1] Investment Product Summary - The Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) tracks the photovoltaic industry index (931151), which selects listed company securities involved in silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, modules, and photovoltaic equipment to reflect the overall performance of related listed companies across the photovoltaic industry chain [1] - This index focuses on the new energy sector, characterized by high growth potential and technological innovation [1]