报告正文 % 全国高炉开工率 (247家) ··· 2023 ==== 2024 ==== 2025 · 2026 86 - 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 Ho, Ho, Ho' Ho' Ho' H D t I 型运营造造造运运 电视机 资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究 1、生产高频跟踪：工业生产表现分化，建筑业开工有所回升 工业生产中，高炉开工维持韧性，钢材表观消费回落。 节后第1周，高炉开工率环比0.1%，同比较节前 1周回升0.1个百分点至2.3%；钢材表观消费同比较春节前1周回落3.5个百分点至-6.4%。钢材社会库存涨幅较 大，环比上升9.6%。 | 赵 耿 联 人 | 耿 图 39: 节后第１周，高炉开工率有所回升 图 40: 节后第 1 周，钢材周表观消费同比回落 五大品种钢材周表观消费量 万吨 - 2023 -2025 · 2026 =====2024 1100 - 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 HD + □ HD +0 HD 资料来源: iFind、申万宏源研究 中游生产中，石化链开工偏弱，消费链开工则有改善。 节后第1周，石化链中，纯碱开工率环比0. ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes that uncertainty and transformation opportunities are driving companies to seek new growth strategies, with most global executives increasingly relying on rapid decision-making [1] - IBM's report highlights that the majority of high-risk decisions made by executives in 2025 were later validated as correct and necessary [1] - Companies are continuing to invest in technologies represented by AI to achieve faster response times, stronger business resilience, and deeper commercial insights, turning market fluctuations into opportunities [1] Group 2 - IBM plans to advance its "product focus" strategy to meet the needs of private enterprises in China, leveraging the "AI Deep Cultivation Plan" to promote regional cooperation and ecosystem development [3] - In the coming year, IBM will target not only first-tier cities but also important cities with developed private economies, such as Yantai, Suzhou, Quanzhou, Xiamen, Foshan, Dongguan, Ningbo, and Hefei [3] - The company aims to deepen customer demand insights, continuously optimize channel operations, and focus on high-value solutions to provide differentiated products, services, and experiences for clients looking to transform and expand internationally [3]

Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Jing Sheng Ji Dian expects a net profit of 878 million to 1.255 billion yuan for 2025, representing a decline of 50% to 65% year-on-year due to reduced demand in the photovoltaic equipment sector and a significant drop in material prices, leading to a gross profit reduction of approximately 2.2 to 2.6 billion yuan [1] - Enjie Co. anticipates a net profit of 109 million to 164 million yuan for 2025, recovering from a loss of 556 million yuan in the previous year, driven by increased demand for lithium battery separator films and improved pricing stability in the industry [2] - Robotech forecasts a net loss of 60 million to 90 million yuan for 2025, impacted by structural supply and demand pressures in the photovoltaic sector, leading to significant revenue and gross profit declines [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a deep adjustment period, with companies like Jing Sheng Ji Dian facing dual challenges of weak equipment demand and plummeting material prices, indicating widespread pressure across the industry chain [1] - Enjie Co.'s performance improvement signals a potential recovery in the lithium battery separator film industry, with a "V-shaped" turnaround reflecting a substantial improvement in supply-demand dynamics and pricing stability [2] - Robotech's situation highlights the transitional pains of switching from traditional business models to new technologies, as the company faces challenges from both cyclical downturns in the photovoltaic sector and the high costs associated with its recent acquisition of ficonTEC [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a strong bullish phase since October 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4200 points and daily trading volume exceeding 4 trillion yuan, indicating a significant market rally [1][2]. Market Cycle Analysis - The current market is characterized as being in the "summer" phase, with active trading, rapid sector rotation, and widespread profit-making, but without signs of extreme exuberance or bubble formation [2][3]. - The market's valuation remains attractive, with the CSI 300's dynamic P/E ratio around 14 times, significantly lower than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [2][3]. Historical Context and Comparisons - The current market conditions are compared favorably to Japan's historical market performance, highlighting that China's financial system is more stable and its policy responses are more decisive [4][5]. - China's economic transition is supported by strong manufacturing capabilities and the growth of new economic sectors, unlike Japan's experience during its economic downturn [6][7]. Investment Focus for 2026 - The investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes a shift from heavy assets to hard assets, with sectors like rare earths, energy metals, and chemicals gaining pricing power due to global supply constraints [7][8]. - Key structural investment areas include technology innovation, biomedicine, gold and hard assets, revaluation of Chinese manufacturing, and high-dividend assets [8][9][10][11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a new upward cycle since October 2024, with the current phase described as "summer," indicating active trading and sector rotation, but not yet reaching a peak or bubble stage [1][2]. Market Characteristics - The market is currently characterized by high trading volume and broad participation, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, signaling the end of debates over bull and bear market transitions [2]. - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 is approximately 14 times, significantly lower than the S&P 500 (about 29 times) and NASDAQ (about 42 times), indicating that the current market rebound is more of a "catch-up" rather than a bubble [2]. Product Cycle Observation - The representative products of the company have only seen a 16%-17% increase since reaching historical highs in June 2025, suggesting that there is still significant upward potential [3]. Economic Comparison - The current fundamental conditions in China are considered stronger than those in Japan during its economic transition, with a more stable financial system and lower policy learning costs [5][6]. - China's manufacturing sector remains globally competitive, with a record trade surplus in 2025, and new economic sectors like renewable energy and digital economy are driving growth [6][7]. Investment Focus for 2026 - The core investment themes for 2026 are shifting from heavy assets to hard assets, with sectors like rare earths, energy metals, and chemical materials gaining importance due to their pricing power in a concentrated global supply environment [8]. - The company emphasizes five structural investment directions: 1. Technological innovation, particularly in AI and commercial aerospace [9] 2. Biopharmaceuticals, with validated global competitiveness [10] 3. Gold and hard assets, which hold value amid global monetary expansion [11] 4. Revaluation of Chinese manufacturing leaders as key supports in a slow bull market [12] 5. High-dividend assets serving as defensive positions [13] Market Dynamics - The current market rally is driven by a combination of policy, valuation, and sentiment bottoms, alongside the early stages of industrial cycles in AI, energy transition, and biotechnology [14].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.54%, while the STAR Market Composite Index rose by 2.32% [1] Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.62 trillion yuan [1] - The Hong Kong market also saw gains, with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.37% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 1.11% [1] Sector Highlights - Key sectors that performed well included gold, non-ferrous metals, natural gas, semiconductors, and CPO [1] Investment Strategy - According to Ping An Asset Management, focusing on long-term investment and asset allocation can help investors capture main trends and core assets in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] - The emphasis is on structural opportunities in technology growth, the transition between old and new economic drivers, and moderate inflation recovery [1] Manager Insights - Zhang Chuan, head of the FOF business at Ping An Asset Management, noted that the A-share market has shifted from liquidity-driven to profit-driven, with a focus on technology growth, particularly in the AI industry chain, and benefiting from cyclical and consumer sectors [1] - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is expected to recover due to the influx of southbound funds and foreign capital, with a focus on technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and resource products [1] Strategic Asset Allocation - Gold is supported by "de-dollarization" and geopolitical dynamics, maintaining its strategic allocation value [1] - Utilizing diversified asset allocation through FOF and other flexible tools can help balance returns and risks, capturing structural opportunities in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market in 2025 has shown a complex picture of capital inflow, sector rotation, and institutional effects, contrasting with previous trends of "valuation collapse and low sentiment" [2] Group 1: IPO Market and Institutional Effects - The IPO market in Hong Kong has significantly rebounded in 2025, with an increase in the proportion of new listings from technology, advanced manufacturing, and biomedicine sectors [3] - Hong Kong's IPO financing amount ranked first globally in 2025, with a total of 274.6 billion HKD raised from 106 companies listed by December 19, showcasing the market's vitality [3] - The implementation of new listing rules and mechanisms has facilitated the listing of 88 biotech and specialized technology companies, reflecting strong investor interest in frontier fields [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Valuation Recovery - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a valuation recovery led by high-growth sectors, with the Hang Seng Index rising approximately 30% in 2025, driven by sentiment and liquidity [5] - The Southbound capital has become the main force in the Hong Kong stock market, with net purchases reaching 1.4 trillion HKD in 2025, surpassing the previous year's total [5][6] - The daily trading volume of Southbound capital has increased from about 25% to around 30% of the main board trading, indicating its growing influence on the market [6] Group 3: Structural Differentiation in Market Performance - The market has shown a structural trend of "new and old momentum switching, and extreme differentiation among industries and stocks," with new economy sectors leading the market [7] - Traditional cyclical industries and high-debt sectors have underperformed, reflecting a defensive rather than growth-oriented nature [8] - The liquidity differentiation between leading and small-cap stocks may lead to rapid valuation recovery for core assets, while small-cap stocks may face liquidity challenges [8] Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its structural bull market, transitioning from liquidity-driven valuation recovery to profit improvement and industrial policy resonance [10] - Despite external uncertainties, the market is anticipated to maintain an upward trend, supported by improving corporate earnings and market sentiment [10]

Group 1 - The 2026 Global Traders Conference and the 7th National Futures Trading Competition Award Ceremony were held, focusing on the transformation of the capital market and the importance of companies that can adapt to the new global industrial and financial order [1][2] - The chief economist of Zhongjia Fund, Deng Haiqing, emphasized that the core trend of China's economic transition towards high-end manufacturing and technological innovation is clear, and companies that can represent China in this new order will become valuable assets [1] - Ping An Fund's equity investment manager, Zhou Sicong, highlighted that sectors like AI, computing power, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals are at a critical moment, with the Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry expected to experience a beta market in 2026 [1] Group 2 - Li Chenyang, director of Ping An Futures Research Institute, noted that the long-term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, and the pressure on bulk commodities is easing due to economic transformation and policy guidance [2] - The changing political and economic landscape has led traders to seek assets that can provide hedging, as traditional assets no longer meet their needs [2] - Participants shared their experiences and strategies, emphasizing the importance of flexible tool application and long-term investment principles in navigating market volatility [2][3] Group 3 - Nearly 500 traders attended the conference, aiming for collaborative evolution in trading practices [3] - Ping An Futures is committed to customer-centric risk management services, adapting to market changes while creating value for clients [3]

Core Viewpoint - The pricing power in China's bond market is undergoing a significant shift from trading desks to institutional investors, indicating a fundamental change in investment strategies and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Pricing Power Shift - The report highlights that the pricing power of long-term and ultra-long-term bonds is transitioning from trading desks to institutional investors, reflecting a major reversal since 2022 [2][3]. - Prior to 2022, long-term bonds were not mainstream, and their pricing power was firmly held by institutional investors. However, post-2022, the market saw a shift towards longer durations as a dominant strategy due to various economic factors [3][4]. Group 2: Macro Logic Behind the Shift - The macroeconomic environment is changing fundamentally, with the central bank maintaining a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, leading to new narratives around asset allocation and inflation [4]. - The mismatch between fiscal and monetary supply durations is a primary issue, as fiscal expansion increases the net supply of bonds while the central bank's long-term funding is limited [6]. Group 3: Changes in Demand Structure - The demand structure for bonds is also evolving, with a weakening marginal demand from insurance institutions and banks increasingly taking on long-term bonds, leading to a more fragile demand for long-end bonds [7]. - The report suggests that the absorption of long-term supply pressure may require either adjustments to banking metrics or a significant drop in long-term bond prices to attract more institutional investment [7]. Group 4: Strategic Differentiation - The report emphasizes that the transfer of pricing power is reshaping the operational strategies of different types of funds, with trading funds advised to focus on short to medium-term strategies due to the increased difficulty in capital gains from long durations [9]. - Institutional investors are encouraged to remain patient and wait for optimal entry points as long-term assets undergo a revaluation process, while those with trapped positions should adopt a strategy of selling on rebounds to avoid deeper losses [9].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the financial stimulus remains to be observed, with weak real demand persisting in the economy [2] - In November 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 0.39 trillion yuan, down from 0.58 trillion yuan in November 2024, while new social financing reached 2.49 trillion yuan, up from 2.33 trillion yuan in the same period last year [3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing was 8.5%, unchanged from October 2025, and M2 growth was 8%, slightly up from 8.2% in October 2025 [3] Financial Data Analysis - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing remained stable, primarily supported by government and corporate bonds, while the credit demand from the real sector was a drag [3] - Government bonds continued to support the social financing growth in November, but the net financing scale of government bonds (1.27 trillion yuan) was lower than that of November 2024 (1.83 trillion yuan) due to high base effects [3] - In November, corporate long-term loans decreased by 40 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating weak investment confidence among enterprises, although short-term loans and bill financing increased by 110 billion yuan and 211.9 billion yuan respectively compared to the previous year [3] Household Sector Insights - The demand for medium and long-term loans from households significantly shrank in November, with a year-on-year decrease of 290 billion yuan, continuing the trend of deleveraging among households [3] - The improvement in housing demand remains to be observed, constrained by real estate inventory and price factors [3] - Short-term loans for households also saw a year-on-year decrease of 178.8 billion yuan, likely due to the high base effect from last year's "old-for-new" policy [3] Deposit Trends - In November, both household and corporate deposits decreased year-on-year, with new household and corporate deposits reaching 670 billion yuan and 645.3 billion yuan respectively, both showing a year-on-year decline [3] - The new non-bank deposit scale fell to 80 billion yuan, returning to seasonal lows, reflecting that the attractiveness of deposits has diminished due to low deposit rates [3] Monetary Supply Dynamics - The growth rates of M1 and M2 both showed marginal declines, with M1 growth dropping significantly by 1.3 percentage points to 4.9%, while M2 growth decreased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 8.0% [3] - The widening gap between M1 and M2 indicates a shift in the monetary supply dynamics, with M1 growth declining more sharply due to high base effects from strong fiscal injections at the end of 2024 [3] Market Sentiment and Bond Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current economic environment is characterized by a transition between old and new growth drivers, with recent adjustments in the bond market primarily driven by institutional behavior [3] - Despite a balanced and loose monetary environment supported by the central bank, the bond market faces constraints such as a cautious market sentiment and limited attractiveness compared to equities [3] - The report concludes that while there may be opportunities for bond market positioning at high yield points, the overall attractiveness remains weak [3]