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2025年下半年债市展望:定价锚回归,及锋而试的顺风期
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-06-09 13:16
证 券 研 究 报 告 定价锚回归,及锋而试的顺风期 ——2025年下半年债市展望 证券分析师: 黄伟平 A0230524110002 栾强 A0230524110003 张杰 A0230524050002 徐亚 A0230524060002 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 张晋源 A0230525040001 研究支持: 王哲一 A0230123100001 2025.06.09 主要内容 ◼ 引言:与2024年的单边牛市不同,2025年债券已经进入"低利率+利利差+高波动"的状态。告别单边牛市思维,展望下半年,债 券市场可能出现2个特征:1)定价锚回归:从政策利率看资金,资金定价债券;2)6-8月份可能是个不错的及锋而试的顺风期。 ◼ 2025年债券市场运行新特征:1)央行政策利率成为资金市场底部,宏观审慎管理下资金利率曾一度呈现加息效果。2)短债表现较 弱、受资金影响较大,长债波动放大把握难度较高。3)基本面整体平稳,但关税脉冲影响较大,股债市场受短期风险偏好影响较大。 ◼ 外需预期有反复,但债市主要定价内需而非外需。 ✓ 特里芬难题的核心在于,美元信用全球性和贸易逆差长期并存。关税只是表象,更为 ...
“抢出口”带动制造业PMI回暖——2025年5月PMI点评
EBSCN· 2025-06-01 00:20
Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, while energy-intensive industries continue to decline, with a PMI of 47.0%[6][19] Group 2: Service and Construction Sectors - The service sector PMI slightly increased to 50.2%, driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, with significant activity in tourism and hospitality[31][32] - The construction sector PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion due to housing demand constraints, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35][36] - Special bonds issuance in May reached 443.2 billion yuan, significantly higher than April's 230.1 billion yuan, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]