1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market shows a situation where upstream coal - based profits are relatively high, while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor, and the valuation of methanol is relatively high. Currently, the supply - demand driving force of methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. It is expected that the 09 contract will operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2434 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.58%); MA05 closed at 2360 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.55%); MA09 closed at 2372 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.04%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Spot prices in most regions declined. For example, the price in Taicang dropped from 2405 yuan/ton to 2380 yuan/ton (- 1.04%), and in Shaanxi from 2070 yuan/ton to 2045 yuan/ton (- 1.21%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from - 15 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton [1] 3.2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 427.5 yuan/ton, 487.5 yuan/ton, and 490 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3.3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 433.4 yuan/ton to 423.4 yuan/ton (- 2.31%); natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 460 yuan/ton [1] - **MTO Profits**: Northwest MTO profit increased from 377.8 yuan/ton to 418 yuan/ton (10.64%); East China MTO profit increased from - 813.57 yuan/ton to - 792.07 yuan/ton (2.64%) [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Profits of most downstream products increased. For example, the profit of acetic acid increased from 395.94 yuan/ton to 403.92 yuan/ton (2.02%), and the profit of MTBE increased from - 10.12 yuan/ton to 13.64 yuan/ton (234.78%) [1] 3.4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Prices**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2365 yuan/ton, closing at 2372 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 817,883 lots and an open interest of 711,306 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - future is 270 - 279 US dollars/ton. In the Middle East, the reference negotiation price of other regional cargoes is + 0.8 - 2%. The methanol price in Southeast Asia is weakly sorted due to weak demand [1] 3.5. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis for the methanol market. Considering the current profit situation, it is advisable to choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report believes that methanol may experience a short - term weak and volatile trend. Methanol is relatively over - valued as upstream coal - based profits are still high while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor. Currently, the supply - demand drive for methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the tight situation of port spot goods has been alleviated, and the basis may converge through a decline in East China spot prices. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500, with a unilateral suggestion to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On July 8, 2025, MA01 closed at 2420 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.62%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2347 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.47%); MA09 closed at 2373 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.79%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The daily average spot prices in different regions on July 8, 2025, showed declines in most areas. For example, the price in Taicang was 2405 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan/ton (-0.72%); in Shandong, it was 2275 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.66%); in Shaanxi, it was 2070 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.19%) [1]. - **Price Differences**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 15 yuan/ton on July 8, 2025, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2. Upstream Costs - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Binshui Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 427.5 yuan/ton, 487.5 yuan/ton, and 490 yuan/ton respectively on July 8, 2025 [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively on July 8, 2025 [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On July 8, 2025, the profit of coal - based methanol was 423.40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-2.31%) from the previous day; the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 460 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO and Downstream Profits**: The profit of Northwest MTO was 418 yuan/ton, up 40.20 yuan/ton (10.64%); the profit of East China MTO was - 792.07 yuan/ton, up 21.50 yuan/ton (2.64%). Among downstream products, MTBE's profit increased significantly from - 10.12 yuan/ton to 13.64 yuan/ton (234.78%) [1]. 3.4. Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 showed a weak decline, opening at 2396 yuan/ton, closing at 2373 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 623,078 lots and an open interest of 694,298 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 272 - 279 US dollars/ton. There are few active fixed - price offers. Some non - Iranian shipments arriving in the far - future are offered at a +2% premium. For other Middle - East regions, the reference negotiation price for shipments arriving in the far - future is at a +0.8 - 2% premium, with some factories willing to sell at a +5% premium and buyers willing to purchase at a +0.8 - 0.9% premium [1]. 3.5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day saw MA oscillating lower, closing at 2366 at night. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500. It is suggested to wait and see on a unilateral basis and wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that methanol may experience short - term weak fluctuations. The methanol is relatively over - valued as upstream coal - based profits are high while downstream comprehensive profits are poor. The supply - demand drive is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits, and take a wait - and - see attitude for the 09 contract, which is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 in Taicang decreased from 2437.00 yuan/ton to 2435.00 yuan/ton (-0.08%); MA01 in Shandong dropped from 2445.00 yuan/ton to 2422.50 yuan/ton (-0.92%); MA05 rose from 2356.00 yuan/ton to 2358.00 yuan/ton (0.08%); MA09 fell from 2399.00 yuan/ton to 2392.00 yuan/ton (-0.29%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The national average decreased from 2292.50 yuan/ton to 2290.00 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it went down from 2455.00 yuan/ton to 2432.50 yuan/ton (-0.92%); in Shaanxi, it increased from 2090.00 yuan/ton to 2095.00 yuan/ton (0.24%); in Inner Mongolia, it decreased from 2017.50 yuan/ton to 1995.00 yuan/ton (-1.12%) [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: Ordos Q5500 decreased from 430.00 yuan/ton to 427.50 yuan/ton (-0.58%); Datong Q5500 dropped from 490.00 yuan/ton to 487.50 yuan/ton (-0.51%); Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 490.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol in the northwest remained at 433.40 yuan/ton; natural gas - based methanol remained at - 460.00 yuan/ton; MTO in the northwest increased from 308.80 yuan/ton to 377.80 yuan/ton (22.34%); MTO in the East China increased from - 854.07 yuan/ton to - 813.57 yuan/ton (4.74%) [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Acetic acid increased from 387.96 yuan/ton to 395.94 yuan/ton (2.06%); MTBE decreased from 76.28 yuan/ton to - 10.12 yuan/ton (-113.27%); formaldehyde remained at - 233.60 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 showed a weak decline, opening at 2390 yuan/ton, closing at 2392 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 547,156 lots and an open interest of 685,709 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Far - month non - Iranian methanol shipments are priced at 275 - 282 US dollars/ton, with reference negotiations for non - Iranian shipments at +1.6 - 2% and for other Middle - East regions at +1.1 - 2% [1]. 3.4. Trading Strategy The report believes that methanol may fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the 09 contract, which is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. Investors are advised to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that methanol may experience weak and volatile movements in the short - term. The valuation of methanol is relatively high as upstream coal - based profits are still high while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor. Currently, the supply - demand drivers for methanol are not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the tight supply of spot goods in ports has been alleviated. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading and to consider going long on MTO profits [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Profit Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 4, 2025, MA01 closed at 2437 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.53%); MA05 at 2356 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.42%); MA09 at 2399 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.62%) compared to July 3 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed various changes. For example, in Taicang, it was 2445 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.41%); in Shandong, 2292.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [1]. - **Profit Data**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 433.40 yuan/ton; natural - gas - based methanol profit was - 460.00 yuan/ton. Northwest MTO profit was 308.80 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton (-10.18%); East China MTO profit was - 854.07 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton (7.97%) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fell weakly, opening at 2415 yuan/ton, closing at 2399 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 704431 lots and an open interest of 694763, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: From early to mid - week, far - month non - Iranian cargoes were negotiated at 275 - 284 dollars/ton, with few fixed - price offers and no real - deal transactions. CFR China price was in the range of 217 - 281 dollars/ton [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The report believes that methanol may be weakly volatile in the short - term. Due to high upstream coal - based profits, poor downstream comprehensive profits, and weak supply - demand drivers, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading of the 09 contract and to consider going long on MTO profits [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The rebound space of methanol is limited. From a valuation perspective, the upstream coal - based profit is still high, while the downstream comprehensive profit is relatively poor, making the methanol valuation relatively expensive. In terms of drivers, the supply - demand drive for methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of the geopolitical situation, the restart of most Iranian plants, and the supplementation of inland and South American supplies, the tight spot situation in ports has been alleviated, and the basis may converge through a decline in the East China spot price. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profit [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On July 3, 2025, MA01 in Taicang was 2450 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day, a 0.66% change), MA05 was 2366 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton, a 0.77% change), and MA09 was 2414 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton, a 0.42% change) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The daily average prices in different regions on July 3, 2025 were as follows: Shaanxi was 2090 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan/ton, a - 0.12% change), Sichuan - Chongqing was 2250 yuan/ton (unchanged), Hubei was 2315 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Inner Mongolia was 2017.5 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton, a 0.25% change) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA on July 3, 2025 was 5 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: On July 3, 2025, Ordos Q5500 was 430 yuan/ton (unchanged), Datong Q5500 was 490 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Yulin Q6000 was 490 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan/ton, a - 0.51% change) [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: On July 3, 2025, the prices in Hohhot and Chongqing were 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively, both unchanged [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On July 3, 2025, the profit of coal - based methanol was 433.40 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol was - 460.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Downstream Profits**: On July 3, 2025, the profit of Northwest MTO was 343.80 yuan/ton (down 6.40 yuan/ton, a - 1.83% change), the profit of East China MTO was - 928.07 yuan/ton (down 46.00 yuan/ton, a - 5.21% change), the profit of acetic acid was 382.00 yuan/ton (down 5.50 yuan/ton, a - 1.42% change), the profit of MTBE was 146.28 yuan/ton (down 31.80 yuan/ton, a - 17.86% change), the profit of formaldehyde was - 233.60 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of "Yilangtan" was 602.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. 3.4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Prices**: On July 3, 2025, the main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated at a high level, opening at 2408 yuan/ton, closing at 2414 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 705,823 lots and an open interest of 706,992 lots, showing volume increase and position decrease. All contracts had trading during the trading day [1]. - **Foreign Information**: It is reported that 90% of the methanol plants in a certain Middle - Eastern country are in the process of restarting. Attention should be paid to the later start - up and loading and shipping arrangements [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Methanol may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Upstream coal - head profits are still high, while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor, making methanol valuation relatively expensive. The supply - demand drive of methanol is not strong currently, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. The basis may converge through a decline in the East China spot price. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500, with a unilateral suggestion to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 increased from 2420 yuan/ton to 2434 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan/ton (0.58%); MA05 rose from 2334 yuan/ton to 2348 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan/ton (0.60%); MA09 (closing price) increased from 2384 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, a rise of 20 yuan/ton (0.84%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In different regions, prices showed various changes. For example, in Taicang, it decreased from 2540 yuan/ton to 2465 yuan/ton, a drop of 75 yuan/ton (- 2.95%); in Shandong, it increased from 2240 yuan/ton to 2260 yuan/ton, a rise of 20 yuan/ton (0.89%) [1] - **Coal Spot Prices**: Ordos Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 430 yuan/ton and 490 yuan/ton respectively; Yulin Q6000 decreased from 495 yuan/ton to 492.50 yuan/ton, a drop of 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.51%) [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - to - methanol profit remained at 433.40 yuan/ton, and natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 460.00 yuan/ton [1] - **MTO Profits**: Northwest MTO profit remained at 527.00 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit remained at - 1054.57 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profits of Methanol**: Profits of acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, etc. remained unchanged [1] 3. Important Information - In the international market, 90% of methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country are restarting. In the domestic market, the main methanol contract MA2509 rose, opening at 2386 yuan/ton, closing at 2404 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 696,255 lots and a position of 736,158 lots, showing a decrease in volume [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading is advised to wait and see. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500. This week, attention should be paid to potential macro - level disturbances, such as whether the US tax - cut bill will be passed and whether the US non - farm payroll data will deteriorate [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that methanol may experience weak and volatile movements in the short - term. The valuation of methanol is relatively high as upstream coal - based profits are still high while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor. The supply - demand drive for methanol is not strong currently, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of the geopolitical situation, the restart of most Iranian plants, and the supply from the mainland and South America, the tight supply of port spot has been alleviated, and the basis may converge through a decline in spot prices. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side trade and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 increased from 2413 yuan/ton to 2420 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.29%; MA05 rose from 2325 yuan/ton to 2334 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39%; MA09 increased from 2381 yuan/ton to 2384 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.13% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang dropped from 2790 yuan/ton to 2540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.96%; in Shandong, it rose from 2230 yuan/ton to 2240 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45%; in Guangdong, it increased from 2435 yuan/ton to 2445 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.41%; in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, there was no change; in Sichuan - Chongqing, it dropped from 2300 yuan/ton to 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.17%; in Hubei, it decreased from 2340 yuan/ton to 2325 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.64% [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from 377 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: There was no change in the prices of Ordos Q5500 (430 yuan/ton), Datong Q5500 (490 yuan/ton), and Yulin Q6000 (495 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: There was no change in the prices in Hohhot (3.94 yuan/cubic meter) and Chongqing (3.30 yuan/cubic meter) [1]. b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 493.40 yuan/ton to 433.40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.16%; natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 460 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO Profits**: Northwest MTO profit decreased from 562 yuan/ton to 527 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.23%; East China MTO profit increased from - 1183.07 yuan/ton to - 1054.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.86% [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Acetic acid profit increased from 347 yuan/ton to 351.75 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.37%; MTBE profit increased from 139.12 yuan/ton to 159.88 yuan/ton, a rise of 14.92%; formaldehyde profit increased from - 262.40 yuan/ton to - 233.60 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.98%; the profit of another product increased from 518 yuan/ton to 602 yuan/ton, a rise of 16.22% [1]. c) Market Information - **Domestic Market**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2380 yuan/ton, closing at 2384 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 819352 lots and an open interest of 756727, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Market**: It is reported that 90% of the methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country are in the process of restarting. Attention should be paid to the subsequent start - up and shipping situation [1].