| | | 甲醇日评20250710: 择机做多MTO利润 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 单位 2025/7/9 2025/7/8 | | | | | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2434.00 | 2420.00 | 14.00 | 0.58% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2360.00 | 2347.00 | 13.00 | 0.55% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2372.00 | 2373.00 | -1.00 | -0.04% | | | | 太せ | 元/吨 | 2380.00 | 2405.00 | -25.00 | -1.04% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2275.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2400.00 | 2415.00 | -15.00 | -0. ...

| | | 甲醇日评20250709: 择机做多MTO利润 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 单位 2025/7/8 2025/7/7 | | | | | 要你值 | | | | (绝对值) | | | | | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2420.00 | 2435.00 | -15.00 | -0.62% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2347.00 | 2358.00 | -11.00 | -0.47% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2373.00 | 2392.00 | -19.00 | -0.79% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2405.00 | 2422.50 | -17.50 | -0.72% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2290.00 | -15.00 | -0.66% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2415.00 | 2432.50 | -17. ...

| | 里文大机/ | | --- | --- | | | 国内期价: 甲醇圭力MA2509弱势下跌, 开2390元/吨, 收2392元/吨, 跌23元/吨, 成交547156手, 持仓685709, 缩量 | | 资讯 | 减仓。交易日内合约均有成交; | | | 国外资讯: 今日远月到港的非伊甲醇船货参考商谈275-282美元/吨，缺乏主动固定价报盘听闻，远月到港的非伊船货参考 | | | 商谈在+1.6-2%; 中东其它区域方面, 远月到港的中东其它区域船货参考商谈在+1.1-2%, 关注近期部分工厂实际招标结 | | | 景。 | | | 【交易策略】 前一交易日, MA亮荡走低, 夜盘收于2386。我们认为甲醇短期或偏弱壳荡。从估值上看, 上游煤头利润仍然较高,而下游 | | | 综合利润相对较差，甲醇估值相对较贵; 从驱动上看, 目前甲醇供需驱动不强, 华东地区基差有收敛需求, 前期她缘冲突加 | | 小结 | 剧了港口流动货源紧张的局势，导致华东地区基差大幅度走高，目前地绿同抄缓和. 伊朗多数装置重启, 加上内地与南美货 | | | 源的补充，港口现货紧张局面得到缓解，基差或通过华东观货价格下跌 ...

| 甲醇日评20250707: 择机做多MTO利润 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/4 | | 变化值 指标 单位 2025/7/3 | | | 变化值 | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | MA01 | | 元/吨 2437.00 | 2450.00 | -13.00 | -0.53% | | 元/吨 | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 2356.00 | 2366.00 | -10.00 | -0.42% | | MA09 | (收盘价) | 元/吨 2399.00 | 2414.00 | -15.00 | -0.62% | | 太仓 | | 元/吨 2445.00 | 2455.00 | -10.00 | -0.41% | | 元/吨 | | 山东 2292.50 | 2295.00 | -2.50 | -0.11% | | 元/吨 | | 厂东 2455.00 | 2455.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 期现价格 甲醇观货价格 | | | | | | 2090.00 | 及基差 ( ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The rebound space of methanol is limited. From a valuation perspective, the upstream coal - based profit is still high, while the downstream comprehensive profit is relatively poor, making the methanol valuation relatively expensive. In terms of drivers, the supply - demand drive for methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of the geopolitical situation, the restart of most Iranian plants, and the supplementation of inland and South American supplies, the tight spot situation in ports has been alleviated, and the basis may converge through a decline in the East China spot price. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profit [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On July 3, 2025, MA01 in Taicang was 2450 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day, a 0.66% change), MA05 was 2366 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton, a 0.77% change), and MA09 was 2414 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton, a 0.42% change) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The daily average prices in different regions on July 3, 2025 were as follows: Shaanxi was 2090 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan/ton, a - 0.12% change), Sichuan - Chongqing was 2250 yuan/ton (unchanged), Hubei was 2315 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Inner Mongolia was 2017.5 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton, a 0.25% change) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA on July 3, 2025 was 5 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: On July 3, 2025, Ordos Q5500 was 430 yuan/ton (unchanged), Datong Q5500 was 490 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Yulin Q6000 was 490 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan/ton, a - 0.51% change) [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: On July 3, 2025, the prices in Hohhot and Chongqing were 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively, both unchanged [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On July 3, 2025, the profit of coal - based methanol was 433.40 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol was - 460.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Downstream Profits**: On July 3, 2025, the profit of Northwest MTO was 343.80 yuan/ton (down 6.40 yuan/ton, a - 1.83% change), the profit of East China MTO was - 928.07 yuan/ton (down 46.00 yuan/ton, a - 5.21% change), the profit of acetic acid was 382.00 yuan/ton (down 5.50 yuan/ton, a - 1.42% change), the profit of MTBE was 146.28 yuan/ton (down 31.80 yuan/ton, a - 17.86% change), the profit of formaldehyde was - 233.60 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of "Yilangtan" was 602.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. 3.4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Prices**: On July 3, 2025, the main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated at a high level, opening at 2408 yuan/ton, closing at 2414 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 705,823 lots and an open interest of 706,992 lots, showing volume increase and position decrease. All contracts had trading during the trading day [1]. - **Foreign Information**: It is reported that 90% of the methanol plants in a certain Middle - Eastern country are in the process of restarting. Attention should be paid to the later start - up and loading and shipping arrangements [1].

| | | | 甲醇日评20250703: 择机做多MTO利润 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | | | 单位 | 2025/7/2 | 2025/7/1 | 变化值 | 要化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | MA01 | | | 元/吨 | 2434.00 | 2420.00 | 14.00 | 0.58% | | MA05 | | | 元/吨 | 2348.00 | 2334.00 | 14.00 | 0.60% | | 甲醇期货价格 | | | | | | | | | MA09 | (收盘价) | | 元/吨 | 2404.00 | 2384.00 | 20.00 | 0.84% | | 太仓 | | | 元/吨 | 2465.00 | 2540.00 | -75.00 | -2.95% | | 山东 | | | 元/吨 | 2260.00 | 2240.00 | 20.00 | 0.89% | | 广东 期现价格 | | | 元/吨 | 2450.00 | 2445 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that methanol may experience weak and volatile movements in the short - term. The valuation of methanol is relatively high as upstream coal - based profits are still high while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor. The supply - demand drive for methanol is not strong currently, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of the geopolitical situation, the restart of most Iranian plants, and the supply from the mainland and South America, the tight supply of port spot has been alleviated, and the basis may converge through a decline in spot prices. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side trade and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 increased from 2413 yuan/ton to 2420 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.29%; MA05 rose from 2325 yuan/ton to 2334 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39%; MA09 increased from 2381 yuan/ton to 2384 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.13% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang dropped from 2790 yuan/ton to 2540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.96%; in Shandong, it rose from 2230 yuan/ton to 2240 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45%; in Guangdong, it increased from 2435 yuan/ton to 2445 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.41%; in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, there was no change; in Sichuan - Chongqing, it dropped from 2300 yuan/ton to 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.17%; in Hubei, it decreased from 2340 yuan/ton to 2325 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.64% [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from 377 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: There was no change in the prices of Ordos Q5500 (430 yuan/ton), Datong Q5500 (490 yuan/ton), and Yulin Q6000 (495 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: There was no change in the prices in Hohhot (3.94 yuan/cubic meter) and Chongqing (3.30 yuan/cubic meter) [1]. b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 493.40 yuan/ton to 433.40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.16%; natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 460 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO Profits**: Northwest MTO profit decreased from 562 yuan/ton to 527 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.23%; East China MTO profit increased from - 1183.07 yuan/ton to - 1054.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.86% [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Acetic acid profit increased from 347 yuan/ton to 351.75 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.37%; MTBE profit increased from 139.12 yuan/ton to 159.88 yuan/ton, a rise of 14.92%; formaldehyde profit increased from - 262.40 yuan/ton to - 233.60 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.98%; the profit of another product increased from 518 yuan/ton to 602 yuan/ton, a rise of 16.22% [1]. c) Market Information - **Domestic Market**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2380 yuan/ton, closing at 2384 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 819352 lots and an open interest of 756727, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Market**: It is reported that 90% of the methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country are in the process of restarting. Attention should be paid to the subsequent start - up and shipping situation [1].