能源安全之甲醇专家交流 20260311 摘要 地缘冲突导致伊朗 9/10 甲醇装置停车，霍尔木兹海峡封锁致中东发运 暂停，3 月进口量预估大幅下修，港口库存预计去化至 105 万吨低位。 2026 年一季度呈现"进口骤降+国内高开工"格局，国内开工率维持 85%高位，煤制甲醇利润改善推动产能利用率提升，气头则受成本飙升 拖累亏损。 需求端 MTO、醋酸、MTBE 贡献主要增量，其中醋酸 2025 年产能增速 达 28%，2026 年广西华谊、中煤榆林二期等大型一体化装置投产将拉 动消费。 华东 MTO 装置受进口缺口影响负荷小幅下调，广西华谊 MTO 项目因原 料保障优先供给醋酸而推迟至 6 月后投产，短期削弱港口去库幅度。 预计 2026 年甲醇市场维持紧平衡，华东主流价格区间 2,450-2,750 元 /吨，长期价格逻辑将由地缘溢价回归至供需基本面。 产业趋势转向绿色甲醇及 200 万吨以上大型煤制一体化装置，20 万吨 以下落后产能占比不足 5%，供给侧存量淘汰空间有限。 Q&A 近期地缘政治冲突对全球能源化工品市场，尤其是甲醇市场，产生了哪些具体 影响？ 近期地缘局势的扰动已从前期的情绪化影响，逐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main driver for the increase in methanol prices is geopolitical tensions, particularly the movement of US warships towards Middle Eastern countries and Iran's declaration of a state of full alert [6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On January 26, the MA2605 contract rose by 3.4% [4]. - Iran is a major supplier of methanol and the largest source of methanol imports for China [6]. - Currently, Iranian facilities are undergoing winter maintenance, with expectations of gradual resumption of operations in early February [6]. Group 2: Inventory and Demand - Chinese port inventories remain high, with expectations of a decrease in imports arriving at ports in February [6]. - The market is waiting for the high inventory to be reduced, which will depend on the geopolitical situation in Iran [6]. - The downstream MTO sector is currently in a maintenance phase, with limited space for further deterioration in port demand [6]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Despite the current maintenance in the MTO sector, some downstream olefin-related products are performing well [6]. - The chemical sector is benefiting from a rotation of funds due to inflation, leading to a cautious buy-low strategy for methanol [6].

本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 甲醇：下游MTO停工，伊朗局势反复 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 本周甲醇供给呈"国内稳、进口缩"格局。国内装置开工率77.91%，环比微降0.18%，煤制甲醇开工高位支撑产量，新疆100万吨级新产能投产补充供应，仅天然气制装置开工小幅下滑。 | | | | 进口端收缩明显，伊朗冬季限气致多套装置停车，本周港口到港28.49万吨，华东到港略减、华南增量。库存方面，港口总量145.75万吨小幅累库，华东去库与华南累库形成对冲，整体维 | | | | 持历史中高位置，供应整体充裕但进口缩减缓解库存压力。 | | 需求 | 利空 | 本周甲醇需求整体偏弱，结构性分化显著。主力下游MTO开工率回落，兴兴等装置检修，外采需求缩减。传统下游表现分化，醋酸、MTBE开工小幅回升，甲醛、二甲醚维持低位。内地 | | | | 采购情绪清淡，港口提货力度不一，总消费量环比微降。短期受装置检修拖累，需求缺乏上行驱动，后续需关注MTO重启进度。 | | 库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The port inventory has slightly declined from a high level, but the short - term arrival pressure remains high, with the import pressure in December expected to be the highest of the year. Although Iranian plants have undergone winter maintenance, it will take time for the decline in future arrivals to be reflected. Attention should be paid to when the maintenance plan of Ningbo Fude's MTO is implemented. In the inland area, the coal - based methanol production start - up rate is still higher than the same period in previous years. Regarding MTO, attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Yangmei's MTO, the low - load operation of Luxi's MTO, and the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. The traditional downstream start - up rate has slightly rebounded, with acetic acid start - up remaining at a low level, formaldehyde start - up slightly rebounding in the off - season, and MTBE start - up remaining at a high level [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various basis and inter - period spread charts, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, basis of different regions' spot prices relative to the main futures contract, and spreads between different futures contracts such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 [7][11][23] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - It shows charts related to Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads, such as Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, and FOB US Gulf - CFR China [27][28][34] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - The report includes charts on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integrated plants) [36][37][39] 4. Regional Spreads - It presents charts of regional spreads, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, and other regional spread indicators [41][49][54] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - The report shows charts of traditional downstream production profits, including Shandong formaldehyde production profit, Jiangsu acetic acid production profit, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification production profit, and Henan dimethyl ether production profit [50][53][58] Market News and Key Data - **Inland**: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 590 yuan/ton (- 13 yuan/ton). Inner Mongolia's northern line methanol price is 1995 yuan/ton (- 13 yuan/ton), with a basis of 506 yuan/ton (- 25 yuan/ton); the southern line is 2000 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi is 2230 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), with a basis of 341 yuan/ton (- 7 yuan/ton); Henan is 2110 yuan/ton (- 35 yuan/ton), with a basis of 221 yuan/ton (- 47 yuan/ton); Hebei is 2175 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 346 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 361,320 tons (- 12,392 tons), and the northwest factory inventory is 205,000 tons (- 4,000 tons); the inland factory's pending orders are 239,715 tons (+ 9,005 tons), and the northwest factory's pending orders are 128,500 tons (+ 15,000 tons) [1] - **Port**: Taicang methanol is 2080 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 9 yuan/ton (- 17 yuan/ton), CFR China is 241 US dollars/ton (- 4 US dollars/ton), and the East China import spread is - 12 yuan/ton (+ 7 yuan/ton). Changzhou methanol is 2325 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2075 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of - 14 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton). Longzhong's port total inventory is 1,349,430 tons (- 14,070 tons), Jiangsu port inventory is 703,300 tons (- 44,700 tons), Zhejiang port inventory is 235,500 tons (+ 46,000 tons), and Guangdong port inventory is 252,000 tons (- 6,500 tons); the downstream MTO start - up rate is 90.82% (+ 0.89%) [2] - **Regional Spreads**: The Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 55 yuan/ton (+ 33 yuan/ton), the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 465 yuan/ton (+ 8 yuan/ton), the Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is - 400 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton); the Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is 50 yuan/ton (+ 10 yuan/ton); the Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 185 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton); the East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is - 285 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on MA2605 for hedging - **Inter - period**: Expand the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low - **Inter - commodity**: No strategy provided [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The sharp rise in methanol prices is due to the clear short - term supply reduction expectation and the tightening medium - to - long - term supply - demand pattern, which has boosted the market's bullish sentiment. The short - term supply is affected by sanctions and gas limit expectations, while the medium - to - long - term supply - demand is driven by limited capacity growth and increasing demand [1][3][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Driving Factor 1: Short - term Sanctions and Gas Limit Expectations Leading to Import Reduction - The US has tightened sanctions on Iran's chemical logistics and shipping, and some freight agents have stopped accepting Iranian goods. The market anticipates gas supply restrictions in Iran at the end of October, which may lead to a significant contraction in Iran's methanol production in the fourth quarter and intensify the global supply shortage [3]. Driving Factor 2: Strengthened Medium - to - Long - term Supply - Demand Tightening Logic Based on Industrial Fundamentals - **Limited Medium - to - Long - term Capacity Increment**: China's non - integrated methanol capacity has reached its peak, and the pace of new capacity addition has slowed. Overseas, major producers like the US and Saudi have no large - scale expansion plans, and some non - Iranian supplies are contracting [5]. - **Clear Long - term Demand Growth**: Downstream industries such as acetic acid, MTBE are in the capacity expansion phase, and new MTO projects in China will increase the rigid demand for methanol. The demand growth rate is significantly faster than the supply growth rate, establishing a medium - to - long - term supply - demand tightening pattern [5][6]. Outlook for the Future Market - The current rise in methanol prices results from the resonance of short - term supply disruptions and medium - to - long - term supply - demand tightening. The market is bullish, but attention should be paid to key variables such as the release of Iranian sanctioned vessels, gas limit policies, MTO project progress, and logistics game between China and the US. In the short term, prices may remain strong and volatile, and in the medium - to - long - term, prices may enter an upward channel if the supply - demand mismatch persists [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The report suggests waiting for an opportunity to go long on MTO profit. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500, and a unilateral position is advised to be on the sidelines [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased by 29 yuan/ton (-1.18%) to 2434 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-0.84%) to 2360 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 26 yuan/ton (-1.08%) to 2372 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In太仓, the price increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.42%) to 2390 yuan/ton; in山东, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-0.88%) to 2255 yuan/ton; in广东, it increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.52%) to 2412.5 yuan/ton; in内蒙古, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.51%) to 1972.5 yuan/ton. Prices in陕西, 川渝, and 湖北 remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of 太仓现货 - MA increased by 39 yuan/ton to -44 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal and industrial natural gas prices remained unchanged [1]. 2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 423.4 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at -590 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO Profit**: Northwest MTO profit increased by 25 yuan/ton (5.47%) to 481.8 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit increased by 13 yuan/ton (1.82%) to -701.07 yuan/ton [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: Acetic acid profit decreased by 6.04 yuan/ton (-1.52%) to 391.09 yuan/ton; formaldehyde profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-4.37%) to -238.8 yuan/ton; 二曲監 profit decreased by 100 yuan/ton (-16.23%) to 516 yuan/ton. MTBE profit remained unchanged [1]. 3. Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2509 opened at 2370 yuan/ton, closed at 2398 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 676921 lots and an open interest of 695469, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - **Foreign**: Non - Iranian methanol cargoes for far - month arrival are priced at 270 - 280 US dollars/ton, with some offers up 2%. In other Middle - East regions, far - month arrival cargoes are negotiated at +0.5 - 1.5%, with some transactions at +1%. Southeast Asian methanol plants are running stably, but demand is weak, and local prices are weakly adjusted [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - The recent improvement in macro sentiment and policy expectations has boosted the bullish sentiment in commodities, and the rise in coal prices has also driven the rebound of methanol. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor, and methanol valuation is relatively high. From a driving perspective, the supply - demand drive of methanol is not strong, and the basis in East China needs to converge. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. A unilateral position is advised to be on the sidelines, and it is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profit [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market shows a situation where upstream coal - based profits are relatively high, while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor, and the valuation of methanol is relatively high. Currently, the supply - demand driving force of methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. It is expected that the 09 contract will operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2434 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.58%); MA05 closed at 2360 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.55%); MA09 closed at 2372 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.04%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Spot prices in most regions declined. For example, the price in Taicang dropped from 2405 yuan/ton to 2380 yuan/ton (- 1.04%), and in Shaanxi from 2070 yuan/ton to 2045 yuan/ton (- 1.21%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from - 15 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton [1] 3.2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 427.5 yuan/ton, 487.5 yuan/ton, and 490 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3.3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 433.4 yuan/ton to 423.4 yuan/ton (- 2.31%); natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 460 yuan/ton [1] - **MTO Profits**: Northwest MTO profit increased from 377.8 yuan/ton to 418 yuan/ton (10.64%); East China MTO profit increased from - 813.57 yuan/ton to - 792.07 yuan/ton (2.64%) [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Profits of most downstream products increased. For example, the profit of acetic acid increased from 395.94 yuan/ton to 403.92 yuan/ton (2.02%), and the profit of MTBE increased from - 10.12 yuan/ton to 13.64 yuan/ton (234.78%) [1] 3.4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Prices**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2365 yuan/ton, closing at 2372 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 817,883 lots and an open interest of 711,306 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - future is 270 - 279 US dollars/ton. In the Middle East, the reference negotiation price of other regional cargoes is + 0.8 - 2%. The methanol price in Southeast Asia is weakly sorted due to weak demand [1] 3.5. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis for the methanol market. Considering the current profit situation, it is advisable to choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report believes that methanol may experience a short - term weak and volatile trend. Methanol is relatively over - valued as upstream coal - based profits are still high while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor. Currently, the supply - demand drive for methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the tight situation of port spot goods has been alleviated, and the basis may converge through a decline in East China spot prices. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500, with a unilateral suggestion to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On July 8, 2025, MA01 closed at 2420 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.62%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2347 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.47%); MA09 closed at 2373 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.79%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The daily average spot prices in different regions on July 8, 2025, showed declines in most areas. For example, the price in Taicang was 2405 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan/ton (-0.72%); in Shandong, it was 2275 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.66%); in Shaanxi, it was 2070 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.19%) [1]. - **Price Differences**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 15 yuan/ton on July 8, 2025, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2. Upstream Costs - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Binshui Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 427.5 yuan/ton, 487.5 yuan/ton, and 490 yuan/ton respectively on July 8, 2025 [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively on July 8, 2025 [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On July 8, 2025, the profit of coal - based methanol was 423.40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-2.31%) from the previous day; the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 460 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO and Downstream Profits**: The profit of Northwest MTO was 418 yuan/ton, up 40.20 yuan/ton (10.64%); the profit of East China MTO was - 792.07 yuan/ton, up 21.50 yuan/ton (2.64%). Among downstream products, MTBE's profit increased significantly from - 10.12 yuan/ton to 13.64 yuan/ton (234.78%) [1]. 3.4. Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 showed a weak decline, opening at 2396 yuan/ton, closing at 2373 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 623,078 lots and an open interest of 694,298 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 272 - 279 US dollars/ton. There are few active fixed - price offers. Some non - Iranian shipments arriving in the far - future are offered at a +2% premium. For other Middle - East regions, the reference negotiation price for shipments arriving in the far - future is at a +0.8 - 2% premium, with some factories willing to sell at a +5% premium and buyers willing to purchase at a +0.8 - 0.9% premium [1]. 3.5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day saw MA oscillating lower, closing at 2366 at night. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500. It is suggested to wait and see on a unilateral basis and wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that methanol may experience short - term weak fluctuations. The methanol is relatively over - valued as upstream coal - based profits are high while downstream comprehensive profits are poor. The supply - demand drive is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits, and take a wait - and - see attitude for the 09 contract, which is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 in Taicang decreased from 2437.00 yuan/ton to 2435.00 yuan/ton (-0.08%); MA01 in Shandong dropped from 2445.00 yuan/ton to 2422.50 yuan/ton (-0.92%); MA05 rose from 2356.00 yuan/ton to 2358.00 yuan/ton (0.08%); MA09 fell from 2399.00 yuan/ton to 2392.00 yuan/ton (-0.29%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The national average decreased from 2292.50 yuan/ton to 2290.00 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it went down from 2455.00 yuan/ton to 2432.50 yuan/ton (-0.92%); in Shaanxi, it increased from 2090.00 yuan/ton to 2095.00 yuan/ton (0.24%); in Inner Mongolia, it decreased from 2017.50 yuan/ton to 1995.00 yuan/ton (-1.12%) [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: Ordos Q5500 decreased from 430.00 yuan/ton to 427.50 yuan/ton (-0.58%); Datong Q5500 dropped from 490.00 yuan/ton to 487.50 yuan/ton (-0.51%); Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 490.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol in the northwest remained at 433.40 yuan/ton; natural gas - based methanol remained at - 460.00 yuan/ton; MTO in the northwest increased from 308.80 yuan/ton to 377.80 yuan/ton (22.34%); MTO in the East China increased from - 854.07 yuan/ton to - 813.57 yuan/ton (4.74%) [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Acetic acid increased from 387.96 yuan/ton to 395.94 yuan/ton (2.06%); MTBE decreased from 76.28 yuan/ton to - 10.12 yuan/ton (-113.27%); formaldehyde remained at - 233.60 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 showed a weak decline, opening at 2390 yuan/ton, closing at 2392 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 547,156 lots and an open interest of 685,709 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Far - month non - Iranian methanol shipments are priced at 275 - 282 US dollars/ton, with reference negotiations for non - Iranian shipments at +1.6 - 2% and for other Middle - East regions at +1.1 - 2% [1]. 3.4. Trading Strategy The report believes that methanol may fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the 09 contract, which is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. Investors are advised to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that methanol may experience weak and volatile movements in the short - term. The valuation of methanol is relatively high as upstream coal - based profits are still high while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor. Currently, the supply - demand drivers for methanol are not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the tight supply of spot goods in ports has been alleviated. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading and to consider going long on MTO profits [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Profit Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 4, 2025, MA01 closed at 2437 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.53%); MA05 at 2356 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.42%); MA09 at 2399 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.62%) compared to July 3 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed various changes. For example, in Taicang, it was 2445 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.41%); in Shandong, 2292.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [1]. - **Profit Data**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 433.40 yuan/ton; natural - gas - based methanol profit was - 460.00 yuan/ton. Northwest MTO profit was 308.80 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton (-10.18%); East China MTO profit was - 854.07 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton (7.97%) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fell weakly, opening at 2415 yuan/ton, closing at 2399 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 704431 lots and an open interest of 694763, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: From early to mid - week, far - month non - Iranian cargoes were negotiated at 275 - 284 dollars/ton, with few fixed - price offers and no real - deal transactions. CFR China price was in the range of 217 - 281 dollars/ton [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The report believes that methanol may be weakly volatile in the short - term. Due to high upstream coal - based profits, poor downstream comprehensive profits, and weak supply - demand drivers, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading of the 09 contract and to consider going long on MTO profits [1].