甲醇日报 | 2025-12-09 到港压力仍大，关注MTO动态 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 跨品种：无 风险 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润590元/吨（-13）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1995元/吨（-13），内蒙北线基差506元/吨（-25），内蒙南线2000元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2230元/吨（+5），鲁 南基差341元/吨（-7）；河南2110元/吨（-35），河南基差221元/吨（-47）；河北2175元/吨（+0），河北基差346元/吨 （-12）。隆众内地工厂库存361320吨（-12392），西北工厂库存205000吨（-4000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单239715 吨（+9005），西北工厂待发订单128500吨（+15000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2080元/吨（-5），太仓基差-9元/吨（-17），CFR中国241美元/吨（-4），华东进口价差-12元/吨 （+7），常州甲醇2325元/吨；广东甲醇2075元/吨（+0），广东基差-14元/吨（-12）。隆众港口总库存1349430吨（-14070）， 江苏港口库存703300吨（ ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The sharp rise in methanol prices is due to the clear short - term supply reduction expectation and the tightening medium - to - long - term supply - demand pattern, which has boosted the market's bullish sentiment. The short - term supply is affected by sanctions and gas limit expectations, while the medium - to - long - term supply - demand is driven by limited capacity growth and increasing demand [1][3][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Driving Factor 1: Short - term Sanctions and Gas Limit Expectations Leading to Import Reduction - The US has tightened sanctions on Iran's chemical logistics and shipping, and some freight agents have stopped accepting Iranian goods. The market anticipates gas supply restrictions in Iran at the end of October, which may lead to a significant contraction in Iran's methanol production in the fourth quarter and intensify the global supply shortage [3]. Driving Factor 2: Strengthened Medium - to - Long - term Supply - Demand Tightening Logic Based on Industrial Fundamentals - **Limited Medium - to - Long - term Capacity Increment**: China's non - integrated methanol capacity has reached its peak, and the pace of new capacity addition has slowed. Overseas, major producers like the US and Saudi have no large - scale expansion plans, and some non - Iranian supplies are contracting [5]. - **Clear Long - term Demand Growth**: Downstream industries such as acetic acid, MTBE are in the capacity expansion phase, and new MTO projects in China will increase the rigid demand for methanol. The demand growth rate is significantly faster than the supply growth rate, establishing a medium - to - long - term supply - demand tightening pattern [5][6]. Outlook for the Future Market - The current rise in methanol prices results from the resonance of short - term supply disruptions and medium - to - long - term supply - demand tightening. The market is bullish, but attention should be paid to key variables such as the release of Iranian sanctioned vessels, gas limit policies, MTO project progress, and logistics game between China and the US. In the short term, prices may remain strong and volatile, and in the medium - to - long - term, prices may enter an upward channel if the supply - demand mismatch persists [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The report suggests waiting for an opportunity to go long on MTO profit. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500, and a unilateral position is advised to be on the sidelines [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased by 29 yuan/ton (-1.18%) to 2434 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-0.84%) to 2360 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 26 yuan/ton (-1.08%) to 2372 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In太仓, the price increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.42%) to 2390 yuan/ton; in山东, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-0.88%) to 2255 yuan/ton; in广东, it increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.52%) to 2412.5 yuan/ton; in内蒙古, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.51%) to 1972.5 yuan/ton. Prices in陕西, 川渝, and 湖北 remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of 太仓现货 - MA increased by 39 yuan/ton to -44 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal and industrial natural gas prices remained unchanged [1]. 2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 423.4 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at -590 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO Profit**: Northwest MTO profit increased by 25 yuan/ton (5.47%) to 481.8 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit increased by 13 yuan/ton (1.82%) to -701.07 yuan/ton [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: Acetic acid profit decreased by 6.04 yuan/ton (-1.52%) to 391.09 yuan/ton; formaldehyde profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-4.37%) to -238.8 yuan/ton; 二曲監 profit decreased by 100 yuan/ton (-16.23%) to 516 yuan/ton. MTBE profit remained unchanged [1]. 3. Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2509 opened at 2370 yuan/ton, closed at 2398 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 676921 lots and an open interest of 695469, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - **Foreign**: Non - Iranian methanol cargoes for far - month arrival are priced at 270 - 280 US dollars/ton, with some offers up 2%. In other Middle - East regions, far - month arrival cargoes are negotiated at +0.5 - 1.5%, with some transactions at +1%. Southeast Asian methanol plants are running stably, but demand is weak, and local prices are weakly adjusted [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - The recent improvement in macro sentiment and policy expectations has boosted the bullish sentiment in commodities, and the rise in coal prices has also driven the rebound of methanol. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor, and methanol valuation is relatively high. From a driving perspective, the supply - demand drive of methanol is not strong, and the basis in East China needs to converge. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. A unilateral position is advised to be on the sidelines, and it is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profit [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market shows a situation where upstream coal - based profits are relatively high, while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor, and the valuation of methanol is relatively high. Currently, the supply - demand driving force of methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. It is expected that the 09 contract will operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2434 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.58%); MA05 closed at 2360 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.55%); MA09 closed at 2372 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.04%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Spot prices in most regions declined. For example, the price in Taicang dropped from 2405 yuan/ton to 2380 yuan/ton (- 1.04%), and in Shaanxi from 2070 yuan/ton to 2045 yuan/ton (- 1.21%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from - 15 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton [1] 3.2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 427.5 yuan/ton, 487.5 yuan/ton, and 490 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3.3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 433.4 yuan/ton to 423.4 yuan/ton (- 2.31%); natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 460 yuan/ton [1] - **MTO Profits**: Northwest MTO profit increased from 377.8 yuan/ton to 418 yuan/ton (10.64%); East China MTO profit increased from - 813.57 yuan/ton to - 792.07 yuan/ton (2.64%) [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Profits of most downstream products increased. For example, the profit of acetic acid increased from 395.94 yuan/ton to 403.92 yuan/ton (2.02%), and the profit of MTBE increased from - 10.12 yuan/ton to 13.64 yuan/ton (234.78%) [1] 3.4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Prices**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2365 yuan/ton, closing at 2372 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 817,883 lots and an open interest of 711,306 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - future is 270 - 279 US dollars/ton. In the Middle East, the reference negotiation price of other regional cargoes is + 0.8 - 2%. The methanol price in Southeast Asia is weakly sorted due to weak demand [1] 3.5. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis for the methanol market. Considering the current profit situation, it is advisable to choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report believes that methanol may experience a short - term weak and volatile trend. Methanol is relatively over - valued as upstream coal - based profits are still high while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor. Currently, the supply - demand drive for methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the tight situation of port spot goods has been alleviated, and the basis may converge through a decline in East China spot prices. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500, with a unilateral suggestion to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On July 8, 2025, MA01 closed at 2420 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.62%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2347 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.47%); MA09 closed at 2373 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.79%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The daily average spot prices in different regions on July 8, 2025, showed declines in most areas. For example, the price in Taicang was 2405 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan/ton (-0.72%); in Shandong, it was 2275 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.66%); in Shaanxi, it was 2070 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.19%) [1]. - **Price Differences**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 15 yuan/ton on July 8, 2025, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2. Upstream Costs - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Binshui Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 427.5 yuan/ton, 487.5 yuan/ton, and 490 yuan/ton respectively on July 8, 2025 [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively on July 8, 2025 [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On July 8, 2025, the profit of coal - based methanol was 423.40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-2.31%) from the previous day; the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 460 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO and Downstream Profits**: The profit of Northwest MTO was 418 yuan/ton, up 40.20 yuan/ton (10.64%); the profit of East China MTO was - 792.07 yuan/ton, up 21.50 yuan/ton (2.64%). Among downstream products, MTBE's profit increased significantly from - 10.12 yuan/ton to 13.64 yuan/ton (234.78%) [1]. 3.4. Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 showed a weak decline, opening at 2396 yuan/ton, closing at 2373 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 623,078 lots and an open interest of 694,298 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 272 - 279 US dollars/ton. There are few active fixed - price offers. Some non - Iranian shipments arriving in the far - future are offered at a +2% premium. For other Middle - East regions, the reference negotiation price for shipments arriving in the far - future is at a +0.8 - 2% premium, with some factories willing to sell at a +5% premium and buyers willing to purchase at a +0.8 - 0.9% premium [1]. 3.5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day saw MA oscillating lower, closing at 2366 at night. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500. It is suggested to wait and see on a unilateral basis and wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that methanol may experience short - term weak fluctuations. The methanol is relatively over - valued as upstream coal - based profits are high while downstream comprehensive profits are poor. The supply - demand drive is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits, and take a wait - and - see attitude for the 09 contract, which is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 in Taicang decreased from 2437.00 yuan/ton to 2435.00 yuan/ton (-0.08%); MA01 in Shandong dropped from 2445.00 yuan/ton to 2422.50 yuan/ton (-0.92%); MA05 rose from 2356.00 yuan/ton to 2358.00 yuan/ton (0.08%); MA09 fell from 2399.00 yuan/ton to 2392.00 yuan/ton (-0.29%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The national average decreased from 2292.50 yuan/ton to 2290.00 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it went down from 2455.00 yuan/ton to 2432.50 yuan/ton (-0.92%); in Shaanxi, it increased from 2090.00 yuan/ton to 2095.00 yuan/ton (0.24%); in Inner Mongolia, it decreased from 2017.50 yuan/ton to 1995.00 yuan/ton (-1.12%) [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: Ordos Q5500 decreased from 430.00 yuan/ton to 427.50 yuan/ton (-0.58%); Datong Q5500 dropped from 490.00 yuan/ton to 487.50 yuan/ton (-0.51%); Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 490.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol in the northwest remained at 433.40 yuan/ton; natural gas - based methanol remained at - 460.00 yuan/ton; MTO in the northwest increased from 308.80 yuan/ton to 377.80 yuan/ton (22.34%); MTO in the East China increased from - 854.07 yuan/ton to - 813.57 yuan/ton (4.74%) [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Acetic acid increased from 387.96 yuan/ton to 395.94 yuan/ton (2.06%); MTBE decreased from 76.28 yuan/ton to - 10.12 yuan/ton (-113.27%); formaldehyde remained at - 233.60 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 showed a weak decline, opening at 2390 yuan/ton, closing at 2392 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 547,156 lots and an open interest of 685,709 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Far - month non - Iranian methanol shipments are priced at 275 - 282 US dollars/ton, with reference negotiations for non - Iranian shipments at +1.6 - 2% and for other Middle - East regions at +1.1 - 2% [1]. 3.4. Trading Strategy The report believes that methanol may fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the 09 contract, which is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. Investors are advised to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that methanol may experience weak and volatile movements in the short - term. The valuation of methanol is relatively high as upstream coal - based profits are still high while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor. Currently, the supply - demand drivers for methanol are not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the tight supply of spot goods in ports has been alleviated. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading and to consider going long on MTO profits [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Profit Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 4, 2025, MA01 closed at 2437 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.53%); MA05 at 2356 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.42%); MA09 at 2399 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.62%) compared to July 3 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed various changes. For example, in Taicang, it was 2445 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.41%); in Shandong, 2292.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [1]. - **Profit Data**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 433.40 yuan/ton; natural - gas - based methanol profit was - 460.00 yuan/ton. Northwest MTO profit was 308.80 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton (-10.18%); East China MTO profit was - 854.07 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton (7.97%) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fell weakly, opening at 2415 yuan/ton, closing at 2399 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 704431 lots and an open interest of 694763, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: From early to mid - week, far - month non - Iranian cargoes were negotiated at 275 - 284 dollars/ton, with few fixed - price offers and no real - deal transactions. CFR China price was in the range of 217 - 281 dollars/ton [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The report believes that methanol may be weakly volatile in the short - term. Due to high upstream coal - based profits, poor downstream comprehensive profits, and weak supply - demand drivers, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading of the 09 contract and to consider going long on MTO profits [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The rebound space of methanol is limited. From a valuation perspective, the upstream coal - based profit is still high, while the downstream comprehensive profit is relatively poor, making the methanol valuation relatively expensive. In terms of drivers, the supply - demand drive for methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of the geopolitical situation, the restart of most Iranian plants, and the supplementation of inland and South American supplies, the tight spot situation in ports has been alleviated, and the basis may converge through a decline in the East China spot price. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profit [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On July 3, 2025, MA01 in Taicang was 2450 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day, a 0.66% change), MA05 was 2366 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton, a 0.77% change), and MA09 was 2414 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton, a 0.42% change) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The daily average prices in different regions on July 3, 2025 were as follows: Shaanxi was 2090 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan/ton, a - 0.12% change), Sichuan - Chongqing was 2250 yuan/ton (unchanged), Hubei was 2315 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Inner Mongolia was 2017.5 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton, a 0.25% change) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA on July 3, 2025 was 5 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: On July 3, 2025, Ordos Q5500 was 430 yuan/ton (unchanged), Datong Q5500 was 490 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Yulin Q6000 was 490 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan/ton, a - 0.51% change) [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: On July 3, 2025, the prices in Hohhot and Chongqing were 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively, both unchanged [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On July 3, 2025, the profit of coal - based methanol was 433.40 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol was - 460.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Downstream Profits**: On July 3, 2025, the profit of Northwest MTO was 343.80 yuan/ton (down 6.40 yuan/ton, a - 1.83% change), the profit of East China MTO was - 928.07 yuan/ton (down 46.00 yuan/ton, a - 5.21% change), the profit of acetic acid was 382.00 yuan/ton (down 5.50 yuan/ton, a - 1.42% change), the profit of MTBE was 146.28 yuan/ton (down 31.80 yuan/ton, a - 17.86% change), the profit of formaldehyde was - 233.60 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of "Yilangtan" was 602.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. 3.4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Prices**: On July 3, 2025, the main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated at a high level, opening at 2408 yuan/ton, closing at 2414 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 705,823 lots and an open interest of 706,992 lots, showing volume increase and position decrease. All contracts had trading during the trading day [1]. - **Foreign Information**: It is reported that 90% of the methanol plants in a certain Middle - Eastern country are in the process of restarting. Attention should be paid to the later start - up and loading and shipping arrangements [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Methanol may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Upstream coal - head profits are still high, while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor, making methanol valuation relatively expensive. The supply - demand drive of methanol is not strong currently, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. The basis may converge through a decline in the East China spot price. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500, with a unilateral suggestion to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 increased from 2420 yuan/ton to 2434 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan/ton (0.58%); MA05 rose from 2334 yuan/ton to 2348 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan/ton (0.60%); MA09 (closing price) increased from 2384 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, a rise of 20 yuan/ton (0.84%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In different regions, prices showed various changes. For example, in Taicang, it decreased from 2540 yuan/ton to 2465 yuan/ton, a drop of 75 yuan/ton (- 2.95%); in Shandong, it increased from 2240 yuan/ton to 2260 yuan/ton, a rise of 20 yuan/ton (0.89%) [1] - **Coal Spot Prices**: Ordos Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 430 yuan/ton and 490 yuan/ton respectively; Yulin Q6000 decreased from 495 yuan/ton to 492.50 yuan/ton, a drop of 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.51%) [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - to - methanol profit remained at 433.40 yuan/ton, and natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 460.00 yuan/ton [1] - **MTO Profits**: Northwest MTO profit remained at 527.00 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit remained at - 1054.57 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profits of Methanol**: Profits of acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, etc. remained unchanged [1] 3. Important Information - In the international market, 90% of methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country are restarting. In the domestic market, the main methanol contract MA2509 rose, opening at 2386 yuan/ton, closing at 2404 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 696,255 lots and a position of 736,158 lots, showing a decrease in volume [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading is advised to wait and see. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500. This week, attention should be paid to potential macro - level disturbances, such as whether the US tax - cut bill will be passed and whether the US non - farm payroll data will deteriorate [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that methanol may experience weak and volatile movements in the short - term. The valuation of methanol is relatively high as upstream coal - based profits are still high while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor. The supply - demand drive for methanol is not strong currently, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of the geopolitical situation, the restart of most Iranian plants, and the supply from the mainland and South America, the tight supply of port spot has been alleviated, and the basis may converge through a decline in spot prices. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side trade and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 increased from 2413 yuan/ton to 2420 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.29%; MA05 rose from 2325 yuan/ton to 2334 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39%; MA09 increased from 2381 yuan/ton to 2384 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.13% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang dropped from 2790 yuan/ton to 2540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.96%; in Shandong, it rose from 2230 yuan/ton to 2240 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45%; in Guangdong, it increased from 2435 yuan/ton to 2445 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.41%; in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, there was no change; in Sichuan - Chongqing, it dropped from 2300 yuan/ton to 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.17%; in Hubei, it decreased from 2340 yuan/ton to 2325 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.64% [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from 377 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: There was no change in the prices of Ordos Q5500 (430 yuan/ton), Datong Q5500 (490 yuan/ton), and Yulin Q6000 (495 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: There was no change in the prices in Hohhot (3.94 yuan/cubic meter) and Chongqing (3.30 yuan/cubic meter) [1]. b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 493.40 yuan/ton to 433.40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.16%; natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 460 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO Profits**: Northwest MTO profit decreased from 562 yuan/ton to 527 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.23%; East China MTO profit increased from - 1183.07 yuan/ton to - 1054.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.86% [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Acetic acid profit increased from 347 yuan/ton to 351.75 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.37%; MTBE profit increased from 139.12 yuan/ton to 159.88 yuan/ton, a rise of 14.92%; formaldehyde profit increased from - 262.40 yuan/ton to - 233.60 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.98%; the profit of another product increased from 518 yuan/ton to 602 yuan/ton, a rise of 16.22% [1]. c) Market Information - **Domestic Market**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2380 yuan/ton, closing at 2384 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 819352 lots and an open interest of 756727, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Market**: It is reported that 90% of the methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country are in the process of restarting. Attention should be paid to the subsequent start - up and shipping situation [1].