Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center continues to rise. However, cautions are needed when testing key positions. The bullish spread strategy can be adopted for stock index futures. For bonds, wait for adjustment and stabilization before increasing positions. Gold and silver have different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trading suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions [2] Summary by Categories Financial - Stock index: The large - financial sector strongly pushes up the stock index, which hits a new high again. Consider buying low - strike put options and then selling high - strike put options to implement the bullish spread strategy [2] - Bond: The bond market lacks drivers, and the strong performance of the equity market suppresses the bond market. However, the fundamentals and capital still support the bond market. In the short - term, there may be opportunities to increase positions after adjustment and stabilization. The curve strategy recommends focusing on steepening in the medium - term [2] Metals - Precious metals: Gold price fluctuates around $3300 (765 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver price is approaching the annual high, and there is still room for further increase if it stabilizes at $37 (9000 yuan) in the short - term [2] - Industrial metals: For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the sentiment has improved. For coking coal, coke, copper, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, zinc, etc., different trading suggestions are given according to their market conditions such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels [2][3] Energy and Chemicals - Energy: Crude oil prices have回调 due to tariff contradictions impacting demand. It is not recommended to chase high in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Chemicals: For urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc., trading suggestions are given based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [2] Agricultural Products - For soybeans, corn, soy oil, white sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, peanuts, and other agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market news [2] Special Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere and macro - sentiment respectively, and corresponding trading suggestions are given. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [2] New Energy - For polysilicon and lithium carbonate, their price trends are described, and the trading suggestion is to wait and see [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating, but offers specific investment suggestions for various commodities: - **Bullish**: EC08 in the container shipping index (European line), iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, PX, etc. [2] - **Cautiously Bullish**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2507, IM2509 in the stock index [2] - **Bearish**: PP2509, MA2509, SR2509, JD2508, etc. [2] - **Cautiously Bearish**: RB2510 in the steel sector [2] - **Neutral**: T2509, TF2509, TS2509 in the Treasury bond market, etc. [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. trade policy negotiation window has arrived, and the index has broken through the upper - edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions [2]. - The short - term volatility range of T2509 is expected to be between 108.8 - 109.2, and the short - term Treasury bond market may show a narrow - range shock [2]. - Gold prices are affected by U.S. inflation and tariffs, and silver prices fluctuate in the range of 36 - 37 dollars [2]. - The upward space of oil prices is limited due to the stalemate between geopolitical risk premiums and inventory accumulation [2]. - The supply - demand situation of different commodities varies, and prices are affected by factors such as cost, demand, and policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The A - share market is testing key positions, with resistance above. Consider using a bull spread strategy by buying low - strike put options and selling high - strike put options [2]. Treasury Bond - With the bottoming of capital interest rates and the stock - bond seesaw effect, the short - term Treasury bond futures may show a narrow - range shock. Unilateral strategies suggest appropriate dip - buying, and curve strategies recommend paying attention to steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are affected by U.S. tariffs, maintaining around $3300 (765 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options above $790. Silver prices fluctuate between $36 - 37 [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC08 main contract is bullish on a cautious basis, and the upward trend is shown on the disk [2]. Steel - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Consider long - materials and short - raw - materials arbitrage operations [2]. Black Metals - The sentiment in the black metal market has improved, and anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. Consider dip - buying [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - The soft squeeze logic of LME copper has weakened. The 232 investigation is expected to be finalized at the end of July. The main contract of copper is expected to be in the range of 76,000 - 79,500 [2]. Energy - The upward space of oil prices is limited. Adopt a short - term trading strategy. For different energy products, pay attention to factors such as demand, cost, and policies [2]. Chemicals - The supply - demand situation of different chemicals varies. For example, PX is boosted in the short - term, while PTA has cost support under weak supply - demand expectations [2]. Agricultural Products - The prices of different agricultural products show different trends. For example, sugar prices are bearish on rebounds, while cotton prices are short - term bullish and medium - term bearish [2]. Special Commodities - The glass market is affected by the warming macro - atmosphere, and the rubber market has a weakening fundamental expectation [2]. New Energy - The spot price of polysilicon is further raised, and the lithium carbonate futures price maintains a relatively strong operation with macro - risks and fundamental pressures [2].

1. Operation Suggestions - Entering a new round of US trade policy negotiation window, the index has broken through the upper limit of the short - term oscillation range and the central value continues to rise. Consider buying low - strike put options and selling high - strike put options to implement a bullish spread strategy. The short - term fluctuation range of T2509 may be between 108.8 - 109.2. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. For the curve strategy, continue to recommend steepening [2]. 2. Financial Sector 2.1 Treasury Bonds - With the bottoming out of capital interest rates and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures may show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. The curve strategy still recommends steepening [3]. 2.2 Precious Metals - The market has digested part of the impact of US tariffs. As the US dollar strengthens, gold prices have declined. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate around $3300 (765 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver prices are affected by gold and non - ferrous industrial products and fluctuate repeatedly, oscillating in the range of $36 - 37 in the short term [3]. 2.3 Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC contract has moved up on the disk. Be cautiously bullish on the EC08 main contract [3]. 3. Black Sector 3.1 Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial steel products have deteriorated. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - The sentiment in the black sector has improved, and anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. Go long on dips, with the fluctuation range referring to 700 - 750 [3]. 3.3 Coking Coal - The auction non - transaction rate in the market has decreased, the expectation of coal mine resumption has strengthened, the spot market is running strongly, trading has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. Go long on dips [3]. 3.4 Coke - The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, and the coking profit has declined, with the price approaching the阶段性 bottom. Go long on dips [3]. 4. Non - Ferrous Sector 4.1 Copper - The logic of LME soft squeeze has weakened. Pay attention to the rhythm of US tariff policies. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80000 [3]. 4.2 Alumina - The spot market has tightened temporarily, and the disk has strongly broken through the 3100 pressure level. The main contract reference range is 2850 - 3150 [3]. 4.3 Aluminum - The spot discount has widened, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The main contract reference range is 19800 - 20800 [3]. 4.4 Aluminum Alloy - The disk fluctuates with aluminum prices, and the fundamentals remain weak in the off - season. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [3]. 4.5 Zinc - Concerns about tariffs have resurfaced, and the demand outlook remains weak. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [3]. 4.6 Tin - There are significant short - term macro disturbances. Pay attention to changes in US tariff policies. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 4.7 Stainless Steel - There are still macro risks, and the disk has slightly declined. The industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [3]. 4.8 Nickel - The disk has been slightly boosted, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. 5. Energy and Chemical Sector 5.1 Crude Oil - The tariff issue has eased, and positive factors have driven the disk up. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. The resistance levels for WTI are [68, 69], for Brent are [70, 71], and for SC are [510, 520] [3]. 5.2 Urea - There is still some order support on the demand side. Pay attention to the progress of export - related news in the future. Enter the market cautiously on dips in the short term. If the actual demand fails to meet expectations, exit the market. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [3]. 5.3 PX - Oil prices are strong, but the supply - demand margin has weakened. The short - term driving force for PX is limited. PX09 will operate in the range of 6500 - 6900 in the short term. Pay attention to the support at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.4 PTA - The supply - demand outlook has weakened, but the cost side is strong. PTA will maintain an oscillation. In the short term, it will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900. Short at the upper end of the range. Implement a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA9 - 1 [3]. 5.5 Short - Fiber - With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing margin has improved. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA. Expand the processing margin at the low level of the PF disk. Pay attention to the pressure around 1100 for the disk processing margin and the implementation of future production cuts [3]. 5.6 Bottle Chip - It is the peak demand season, production cuts of bottle chips have increased, the processing margin has recovered, and PR fluctuates with costs. The processing margin of the PR main disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Look for opportunities to expand at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.7 Ethanol - The supply - demand situation is gradually turning to be loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will face pressure above. Pay attention to the pressure around 4400 for EG09 in the short term. Sell call options at high levels. Implement a reverse spread strategy for EG9 - 1 at high levels [3]. 5.8 Caustic Soda - There has been a macro - stimulated rebound. Pay attention to whether the alumina purchase price will follow. With the strong short - term macro sentiment, it is expected to rebound at low levels, but the momentum depends on the follow - up of the spot market [3]. 5.9 PVC - Driven by the expectation of "supply - side optimization", still pay attention to the anti - dumping duty ruling in July. Be cautiously optimistic about the rebound space of near - month contracts [3]. 5.10 Pure Benzene - The supply - demand margin has improved, but the driving force for near - month contracts is limited due to high inventory. Be cautiously bearish on far - month contracts. Since the first - line contract BZ2603 of pure benzene is far away in time, the driving force is limited under the supply - demand game. Be cautiously bearish or wait and see for unilateral operations. Implement a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [3]. 5.11 Styrene - The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the cost support is limited. Styrene may gradually face pressure. It is recommended to sell call options with a strike price above 7500 for EB08 [3]. 5.12 Synthetic Rubber - Due to an unexpected device incident, butadiene has rebounded, boosting the rise of BR. Pay attention to the pressure around 11500 for BR2508 in the short term [3]. 5.13 LLDPE - Trading has weakened, and prices have slightly declined. It will oscillate in the short term [3]. 5.14 PP - Both supply and demand are weak, and the cost - side support has weakened. Be cautiously bearish. Enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [3]. 5.15 Methanol - The basis has rapidly weakened. Pay attention to Iranian shipments. Conduct range - bound operations between 2200 - 2500 [3]. 6. Agricultural Sector 6.1 Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade with a short - bias on rebounds [3]. 6.2 Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Hold short positions on rallies in the short term [3]. 6.3 Eggs - The spot market remains weak. Be bearish in the long - term [3]. 6.4 Apples - Trading is light, and prices have weakened. The main contract will operate around 7700 [3]. 6.5 Jujubes - Market prices have fluctuated slightly. The main contract will operate around 10500 [3]. 6.6 Peanuts - Market prices have oscillated steadily. The main contract will operate around 8100 [3]. 6.7 Soda Ash - Inventory accumulation continues, and the oversupply pattern is prominent. Adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [3]. 7. Special Commodity Sector 7.1 Glass - The macro atmosphere has warmed up, and the disk has generally performed strongly. Wait and see in the short term [3]. 7.2 Rubber - There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Hold short positions above 14000 [3]. 7.3 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price has rebounded with polysilicon. Wait and see [3]. 8. New Energy Sector 8.1 Polysilicon - The spot quotation of polysilicon has been raised, and multiple futures contracts have reached the daily limit. Wait and see [3]. 8.2 Lithium Carbonate - The disk is running strongly, but there are increasing macro risks and fundamental pressure. The main contract reference range is 60,000 - 65,000 [3]. 9. Stock Index - The market trading sentiment is becoming more optimistic, and the broader market is approaching a new high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for government bonds is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond bull market is expected to continue, and it is recommended to steepen the yield curve. The market is driven by loose liquidity expectations, weak economic data in May, and strong market sentiment. However, the rally is based on expectations, and there is some instability. Adjustments could be opportunities to add positions. Short - end and ultra - long - end bonds are expected to perform strongly [2][14][16] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1.1 Weekly Review: Treasury Futures Continue to Strengthen - From June 16 - 22, treasury futures continued to strengthen. On Monday, they opened higher due to the central bank's 400 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase. Economic data in May was mostly weak, with only consumption exceeding expectations, and the bond market reacted little. On Tuesday, with loose funds and expected loose monetary policies, the bond market strengthened and the curve steepened. On Wednesday, the Lujiazui Financial Forum had limited incremental positive news, but the buying power in the bond market remained strong. On Thursday, the market worried about regulatory tightening, causing a temporary drop in futures. On Friday, with the LPR unchanged, the market expected the central bank to restart treasury bond trading, and the bond market strengthened. As of June 20, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury futures main contracts were 102.542, 106.275, 109.165, and 121.340 yuan respectively, up 0.080, 0.130, 0.155, and 0.810 yuan from the previous weekend [1][13] 1.2 Next Week's View: Bond Bull Market Continues, Keep Steepening the Curve - Next week, incremental news is limited, and the bond market will be driven by funds and sentiment. Near the end of the month, the expectation of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading is rising, and there are no effective negative factors, so the bond bull market is expected to continue. The short - end and ultra - long - end bonds are expected to perform strongly, and the curve's short - end may steepen [14][16] 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 83 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 854.533 billion yuan and a net financing of 322.984 billion yuan, a change of - 86.593 billion yuan and + 30.336 billion yuan from last week respectively. Local government bonds issued 60, with a total issuance of 261.753 billion yuan and a net financing of 124.334 billion yuan, up 153.967 billion yuan and 167.346 billion yuan from last week respectively. 632 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 1102.32 billion yuan and a net financing of 80.68 billion yuan, up 61.6 billion yuan and 243.59 billion yuan from last week respectively [22][23] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. As of June 20, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.37%, 1.51%, 1.64%, and 1.84% respectively, down 4.89, 0.77, 0.44, and 1.20 bp from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread widened by 5.05 bp to 28.06 bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread widened by 0.33 bp to 13.41 bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread narrowed by 0.76 bp to 19.78 bp. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.49%, 1.58%, and 1.68% respectively, down 1.29, 2.29, and 2.88 bp from the previous weekend [27][28] 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury futures continued to strengthen. As of June 20, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury futures main contracts were 102.542, 106.275, 109.165, and 121.340 yuan respectively, up 0.080, 0.130, 0.155, and 0.810 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury futures this week were 32,988, 53,684, 58,000, and 65,458 lots respectively, a change of + 2015, + 2552, + 272, and + 1117 lots from the previous weekend. The open interests were 127,389, 182,960, 232,190, and 131,052 lots respectively, up 3389, 9949, 19213, and 6033 lots from the previous weekend [35][38] 3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was not obvious. The funds were generally balanced and loose, and the futures basis generally fluctuated narrowly. The IRR of the CTD bonds of each main contract was around 1.8%, and the current certificate of deposit rate was slightly higher than 1.6%, so the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was relatively limited [42] 3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of June 20, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2509 - 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury futures were - 0.150, - 0.060, 0.000, and + 0.160 yuan respectively, a change of - 0.036, + 0.005, - 0.010, and - 0.010 yuan from the previous weekend [46][47] 4. Weekly Observation of Funds - This week, the central bank conducted 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 182 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan. As of June 20, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.59%, 1.49%, 1.37%, and 1.53% respectively, a change of + 3.12, - 3.20, - 4.30, and + 2.10 bp from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.32 trillion yuan, 0.37 trillion yuan more than last week, and the overnight ratio was 89.71%, slightly higher than last week [52][53][55] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US treasury yield declined slightly. As of June 20, the US dollar index rose 0.63% to 98.7639 from the previous weekend, the 10Y US treasury yield was 4.38%, down 3 bp from the previous weekend, and the 10Y Sino - US treasury yield spread was inverted by 273.9 bp [60] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose uniformly. As of June 20, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3593.71, 6031.96, and 1720.25 points respectively, up 85.74, 10.08, and 67.98 points from the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of June 20, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.33, 4.38, and 7.49 yuan/kg respectively, a change of + 0.07, + 0.05, and - 0.29 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [64] 7. Investment Suggestions - Adopt a bullish approach. Long positions can be held, and it is recommended to consider mid - term long positions on dips. Moderately pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities in treasury futures. Consider the curve - steepening strategy, and recommend the 2TS - T strategy, and short - end varieties can also use physical bonds [17][18][19]