通胀数据持续改善 国债周报 2025/01/10 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 流动性 02 期现市场 05 利率及汇率 03 主要经济数据 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 经济及政策：12月PMI数据显示，供需两端均有所回暖，制造业重回扩张区间。分项上，需求端释放以及政策预期向好带动制造业企业生产 活动较好扩张，内外需均有回升，但内需修复持续性有赖居民收入，需求端仍需政策支持。出口方面，11月出口数据强于预期，对美出口回 落而非美地区出口增速维持韧性。中央经济工作会议强调继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，降准降息预期仍存。海外方面，美国流动性有所改 善，美国12月非农就业数据表现温和，市场对美联储降息时点预期推迟到年中。 1、中国2025年12月CPI同比上涨0.8%，预期涨0.75%，前值涨0.7%。12月PPI同比下降1.9%，预期降2%，前值降 ...

事件点评 PMI 超预期回升对 2026 年市场的启示 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 12 月 PMI 数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：国家统计局公布2025 年 12 月采购经理指数运行情况，制造业PMI为 50.1% （前值为 49.2%，下同），环比提升 0.9pct；非制造业 PMI 为 50.2%（49.5%）， 环比提升 0.7pct；综合 PMI 为 50.7%（49.7%），环比提升 1.0pct。 12 月制造业 PMI 超季节性、超预期大幅回升至 50.1%，创 4 月以来新高 值得注意的是，12 月制造业 PMI 的季节性是环比回落，2016-2024 年 12 月制造 业 PMI 环比回落均值为-0.3%，而 2025 年 12 月则是大幅环比回升 0.9%，为 2012 年以来最大的 12 月环比回升幅度。 1、12 月 PMI 回升，或与 10 月政策加码有关 10 月 PMI 大幅回落，表明经济阶 ...

【市场表现】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.63%报112.140元，10年期主力合约涨0.10%报108.005元， 5年期主力合约涨0.06%报105.840元，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.434元。银行间主要利率债收益率普 遍下行，截至17：00，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行3.8bp报2.2410%，50年期国债"25超 长特别国债03"收益率下行4.65bp报2.3810%，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行2.89bp报1.9031%。 【操作建议】 昨日期债全线上涨，其中超长债涨幅领先，主要或为前期超跌修复，行情驱动或主要由未经证实的利多 消息驱动，期货收盘后现券继续下行，全天30年活跃券利率下行4.2BP左右，因此今日期货可能有小幅 高开。我们认为短期上涨的趋势逻辑并不坚实，年末宽货币政策落地的概率不高，更可能留待明年一季 度施为，短期TL合约波动较大，行情更多可能为年末冲业绩的交易诉求主导，建议仍以震荡看待，如 参与交易建议快进快出及时止盈。10年期品种相对稳定，利率上限预期仍不会大幅偏离1.85%，T2603 关注107.6-107.8附近支撑 ...

利多出尽，关注价格高位 波动风险 贵金属月报 2025/12/05 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 月度评估及行情展望 月度总结 ◆ 月度行情总结：本月贵金属，尤其是白银价格表现极为强势，11月5日至12月4日，COMEX黄金价格上涨7.57%至4237.9美元/盎司，沪金主力 合约价格上涨4.15%至953.4元/克。同期COMEX白银价格上涨22.67%至57.53美元/盎司，并在盘中达到59.65美元/盎司的历史新高。沪银主力 合约价格上涨19.54%至13424元/千克，并在盘中达到13866元/千克的历史新高。 ◆ 美联储人事提名是本月银价表现强势的最主要宏观驱动因素：11月，哈塞特明确表示"若被提名为美联储主席，将非常乐意进行任职"，而 随后特朗普表示他知道将会选择谁成为美联储主席，且很快将会宣布这一决定。而在十二月初，特朗普在内阁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic data for October showed a decline in both supply and demand. The growth rate of industrial added - value slowed down due to weak external demand, production structure adjustment, and fewer working days. The new policy - based financial instruments could not fully offset the impact of the real - estate downturn, and the power of demand recovery was insufficient. The export data in October was lower than expected, with exports to the US falling while non - US exports maintained resilience. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals, and considering the high economic growth rate in the first three quarters, the pressure to achieve the goal this year is not large, and the policy may focus more on the connection with next year, with little need for additional measures in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the US dollar liquidity is tight, and subsequent inflation and employment data will be observed for their indication of a December interest - rate cut [10]. - In terms of liquidity, the central bank conducted 151.18 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan in MLF operations this week, with 182.97 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 90 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 21.79 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.47%. - Regarding interest rates, the latest 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 1.84%, up 2.28 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield closed at 2.18%, up 2.45 BP week - on - week. The latest 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, down 4.00 BP week - on - week. - Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve. Although short - term credit events and the expectation of new regulations on fund fees have triggered some redemptions in the bond market, the overall risk is controllable. The market is currently in a situation of long - short entanglement with weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, and generally maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and the impact of liquidity [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Analysis**: In October, economic data showed a decline in both supply and demand. The growth rate of industrial added - value decreased. The new policy - based financial instruments could not fully offset the real - estate downturn. The export to the US declined, while non - US exports were resilient. The policy may focus on the connection with next year. Overseas, the US dollar liquidity is tight, and the December interest - rate cut will depend on inflation and employment data. The profit of industrial enterprises from January to October was 5.95029 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The "Two - Major" construction has received support from special Treasury bonds. Japan may adjust its interest - rate policy, and the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan in MLF operations. Japan revised its bond issuance plan, and many places are studying real - estate spot - sale support policies [10][11]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 151.18 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan in MLF operations this week, with 182.97 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 90 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 21.79 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.47% [13]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Treasury yield was 1.84%, up 2.28 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield was 2.18%, up 2.45 BP week - on - week. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, down 4.00 BP week - on - week [13]. - **Summary and Strategy**: The economic data in October showed weak supply and demand. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond - market supply - demand pattern may improve in the fourth quarter. The recommended trading strategy is to buy on dips with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by the logic of loose monetary policy and difficult credit improvement [13][15]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Contract Performance**: The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [18][22][25][28]. 3.3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy**: - GDP: The actual GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations [40]. - PMI: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value; the service - industry PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point. The manufacturing PMI sub - items showed that both supply and demand were under pressure [40][41]. - Price Index: In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year. The month - on - month data also showed certain changes [49]. - Export: In October, exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 25.1% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 10.9% year - on - year [52]. - Industrial Added Value: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in the previous month [55]. - Social Consumption: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Excluding automobiles, the consumption growth rate improved [55]. - Fixed - Asset Investment: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 1.7%, and the real - estate investment growth rate was - 14.7%. The second - hand housing price decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [58]. - Real - Estate Data: In October, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%. The cumulative value of new housing construction was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the completion - end data widened, and the new - housing sales in 30 large - and medium - sized cities weakened [61][64]. - **Foreign Economy**: - US Economy: The second - quarter US GDP had a real year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the US CPI and core CPI showed certain changes. In August, the order of durable goods increased by 7.63% year - on - year, and the non - farm employment population increased by 22,000. In October, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4 [67][70][73]. - EU Economy: In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter [73]. - Eurozone Economy: In October, the Eurozone CPI increased by 2.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year. In November, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.7, and the service - industry PMI was 53.1 [76]. 3.4. Liquidity - **Money Supply**: In October, the M1 growth rate was 6.2%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.2%. The M1 - M2 gap widened [81]. - **Social Financing**: In October, the social financing increment was 81.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 59.7 billion yuan. The new RMB loans were 220 trillion yuan. The government bond growth rate slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector was weak. The social financing growth rate of the resident and enterprise sectors was 5.92%, and the government bond growth rate was 19.20% [81][84]. - **Central Bank Operations**: In October, the MLF balance was 605 billion yuan, and the net MLF investment was 20 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 151.18 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 182.97 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 90 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 21.79 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.47% [87]. 3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: The report provides the latest interest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury - bond yields, and US Treasury - bond yields [90]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents the exchange - rate data of the US dollar against the RMB and the US dollar index [99].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy and the implications of the 2026 midterm elections under the Trump administration, focusing on fiscal and monetary policies, inflation, and investment opportunities in AI and gold. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Outlook**: The U.S. economy is expected to experience a rebound in the second half of 2026 after a short-term impact from government shutdowns, with fiscal and monetary policies driving expansion in Q3 and rising inflation pressures in Q4 [1][2] - **Fiscal Policy**: The Trump administration is likely to continue implementing expansionary fiscal policies, including a proposed $2,000 tax credit per person, to stimulate economic growth and garner voter support ahead of the midterm elections [1][8] - **Monetary Policy**: The new Federal Reserve chair is anticipated to focus more on economic downturn risks, potentially leading to more interest rate cuts than the market expects, with analysts predicting three rate cuts in 2026 [7] - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation is expected to remain sticky in the first three quarters of 2026, with a potential increase in inflationary pressures as the economy expands in Q4, raising concerns about a second wave of inflation risks [1][11] - **Investment Opportunities**: Gold and AI are identified as the best investment combinations, each representing half of the recommended portfolio, alongside stocks, commodities, and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds benefiting from loose fiscal and monetary policies [1][2][12] Additional Important Content - **Midterm Election Challenges**: The 2026 midterm elections pose significant challenges for Trump, with predictions indicating a 70% chance for Democrats to gain control of the House, which could lead to a divided government [3][4] - **Trade Policy**: Trump may leverage trade policies, including tariffs, to secure votes from key regions while also creating external conflicts to pressure the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates [6] - **Market Sentiment**: While market sentiment may gradually improve, there are risks of sudden deterioration due to trade policy fluctuations and economic conditions [2] - **Asset Performance**: The macroeconomic environment is expected to favor lower dollar rates and a weaker dollar index, with gold prices likely to rise and stock and commodity markets benefiting from expansionary policies [13][14] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the U.S. economy, fiscal and monetary policies, and investment strategies as discussed in the conference call.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in October showed a weakening in both supply and demand, with the overall situation declining compared to the third quarter. The demand-side momentum still needs to be strengthened. The subsequent impact of new policy-based financial instruments and the incremental debt balance limit on the fourth-quarter growth rate should be monitored. The social financing growth rate declined in October, and it may remain weak at the end of the year under the influence of the high base in the fourth quarter, the pressure on the real estate market, and the decline in government bond growth [13]. - In terms of funds, the tax payment period is approaching, and the maturity volume of interbank certificates of deposit is large. However, the central bank has increased the volume of repurchase operations, maintaining its attitude of protecting funds. Overall, the supply-demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve. Currently, the market is generally oscillating under the intertwined background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. The rhythm needs to pay attention to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds and the increasing impact of allocation power. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [13]. - From a fundamental perspective, the bond market has limited downward adjustment space. Looking forward, the capital side is expected to remain loose. With the increasing uncertainty of tariff disturbances and external demand, there is still pressure on economic growth stabilization. The direction of loose monetary policy and the adjustment trend of capital-intensive industries are still difficult to change. In the long term, the bond market should mainly adopt the idea of buying on dips [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation**: In October, economic data showed a decline in both supply and demand. The growth rate of industrial added value declined due to weak external demand, production structure adjustment under the "anti-involution" policy, and fewer working days. New policy-based financial instruments failed to fully offset the impact of the real estate downturn, and the power of demand recovery was insufficient. The export data in October was lower than expected, with a decline in exports to the United States and resilient growth in non-US regions. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals. Considering the high economic growth rate in the first three quarters, the pressure to achieve the goals this year is not large, and the policy side may focus more on the connection policies with next year. There is no strong need for additional measures in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the US dollar liquidity is tight, and subsequent inflation and employment data should be observed for their indication of a December interest rate cut [10]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchase operations, with 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing. The net investment this week was 1.354 trillion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.44% [13]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10-year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.82%, up 0.81 BP week-on-week; the 30-year Treasury bond yield closed at 2.16%, up 1.20 BP week-on-week. The latest 10-year US Treasury bond yield was 4.06%, down 8.00 BP week-on-week [13]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, the economic data in October was weak on both the supply and demand sides, and the overall situation declined compared to the third quarter. The demand-side momentum still needs to be strengthened. The subsequent impact of new policy-based financial instruments and the incremental debt balance limit on the fourth-quarter growth rate should be monitored. The social financing growth rate declined in October, and it may remain weak at the end of the year. In terms of funds, the tax payment period is approaching, and the maturity volume of interbank certificates of deposit is large. However, the central bank has increased the volume of repurchase operations, maintaining its attitude of protecting funds. Overall, the supply-demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve. Currently, the market is generally oscillating under the intertwined background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. The rhythm needs to pay attention to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds and the increasing impact of allocation power. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **T Contract Performance**: Relevant charts show the closing price and annualized discount trend of the T current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the T main contract [20]. - **TL Contract Performance**: Relevant charts show the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TL current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TL main contract [23]. - **TF Contract Performance**: Relevant charts show the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TF current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TF main contract [26]. - **TS Contract Performance**: Relevant charts show the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TS current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TS main contract [29]. - **TS and TF Positions**: Relevant charts show the closing price and position volume of the TS and TF contracts [33]. - **T and TL Positions**: Relevant charts show the closing price and position volume of the T and TL contracts [36]. 3. Main Economic Data Domestic Economy - **GDP and PMI**: In the third quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value; the service industry PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, showing a differentiation between the manufacturing and service industries [41]. - **Manufacturing PMI Sub - items**: In October, both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry were under pressure. The production index decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 49.5%, with a larger decline than the new order index. The new order index continued to be below the boom-bust line, and the import index dropped to 46.8%, indicating insufficient domestic terminal consumption and investment demand [47]. - **Price Index**: In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, the core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI increased by 0.2%, the core CPI increased by 0.2%, and the PPI increased by 0.1%. The price of pork was weak due to sufficient supply, but the demand during the double festivals drove up the prices of vegetables and fruits. The year-on-year decline of the PPI narrowed [50]. - **Export Data**: In October 2025, China's import and export data was slightly lower than expected. Exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, and imports increased by 1.0% year-on-year. Exports to the United States decreased by 25.1% year-on-year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [53]. - **Industrial Added Value and Social Consumption**: In October, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in the previous month. The year-on-year growth rate of social consumption retail sales was 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The growth rate of social consumption retail sales decreased due to the high base of durable goods such as cars and home appliances, but the growth rate of non-car consumption items improved [56]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment and Real Estate**: From January to October, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was -1.7%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment was -14.7%. In October, the month-on-month decline of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was 0.7%, and the year-on-year decline was 5.4% [59]. - **Real Estate Construction and Sales**: In October, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 490.61 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 19.8%. The cumulative value of new housing construction was 6.52939 billion square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 9.4%. The cumulative year-on-year decline of the completion - end data in October was 16.99%, and the new housing sales data in 30 large and medium - sized cities weakened recently [62][65]. Foreign Economy - **US Economy**: In the second quarter, the annualized current - price GDP of the United States was 3.0331 trillion US dollars, with a real year-on-year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter-on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the unadjusted CPI in the United States increased by 3% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 3% year-on-year. In August, the order amount of durable goods in the United States was 312.4 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.63%. The seasonally adjusted non - farm employment population increased by 22,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. In October, the ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States was 48.7, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4 [68][71][74]. - **European Economy**: In the third quarter, the GDP of the European Union increased by 1.5% year-on-year and 0.3% quarter-on - quarter. In October, the CPI in the eurozone increased by 2.1% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year. In November, the initial value of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone was 49.7, and the service industry PMI was 53.1 [74][77]. 4. Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In October, the growth rate of M1 was 6.2%, and the growth rate of M2 was 8.2%. The increment of social financing was 815 billion yuan, with a year-on - year decrease of 597 billion yuan. The growth rate of government bonds in the social financing sub - items slowed down, and the financing of the real - sector was weak. The growth rate of social financing in the household and enterprise sectors was 5.92%, and the growth rate of government bonds was 19.20% [82][85]. - **Central Bank Operations**: In October, the balance of MLF was 6.05 trillion yuan, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchase operations, with 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing. The net investment this week was 1.354 trillion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.44% [88]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: The table shows the changes in various market interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [91]. - **Interest Rate Charts**: Relevant charts show the trends of Treasury bond yields, inter - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, and the yields of Treasury bonds in the UK, France, Germany, and Italy. There are also charts showing the Federal Reserve's target interest rate and exchange rates [94][96][97].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is likely to continue to fluctuate. The central bank's restart of buying and selling government bonds is positive for bond market sentiment in the short - term. In the medium - term, the bond market in the fourth quarter is mainly affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of the new fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve, and the market may maintain a volatile trend under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. The bond market is expected to recover with fluctuations, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, with both supply and demand under pressure. The non - manufacturing PMI met expectations and showed a slight improvement. The "anti - involution" has boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production needs further observation. In terms of exports, October's export data was lower than expected, with exports to the US declining and non - US exports maintaining resilience. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals, and as the economic growth rate in the first three quarters was relatively high, the pressure to achieve the goal this year is not large. Policy may focus more on policies for the connection with next year, and there is no strong need for additional measures in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates in October, and subsequent inflation and employment data will indicate whether there will be a rate cut in December [11]. - **Major Events**: The People's Bank of China and the Bank of Korea renewed the bilateral local currency swap agreement with a scale of 400 billion yuan/70 trillion won for five years. On November 5, the Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion US dollars of sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, which were well - received by the market. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff measures on US - originated goods. Some Fed officials expressed their views on interest rate cuts, and US financial system liquidity was approaching a dangerous level. China's October export and import data were released, and the foreign exchange reserve scale increased slightly [11][12][13]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 2.068 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.5722 trillion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.43% [14]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10 - year Treasury yield was 1.81%, up 1.14 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield was 2.16%, up 1.00 BP week - on - week; the latest 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.11%, unchanged week - on - week [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for a 6 - month period, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1. The core driving logic is loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [16]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Contract Performance**: Presented the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [19][23][26][29][31][36]. 3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy** - **GDP and PMI**: In the third quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, while the service PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point [41]. - **Manufacturing PMI Sub - items**: In October, both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry were under pressure. The production index decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 49.5%, and the new order index decreased by 0.9 percentage points. Domestic demand recovery was still insufficient [47]. - **Price Index**: In September, CPI同比 decreased by 0.3%, core CPI同比 increased by 1.0%, and PPI同比 decreased by 2.3%. In terms of month - on - month data, CPI环比 was 0.1%, core CPI环比 was 0.0%, and PPI环比 was 0.0% [50]. - **Export and Import**: In October 2025, China's import and export data were slightly lower than expected. Exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 25.1% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate of 10.9% year - on - year [53]. - **Industrial and Consumption Data**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.4%, and the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 3.0%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value [56]. - **Investment and Real Estate**: From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 0.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 13.9%. In September, the month - on - month growth rate of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.6%, and the year - on - year growth rate was - 5.2% [59]. - **Foreign Economy** - **US Economy**: In the second quarter, the US GDP at current prices on an annualized basis was 3.0331 trillion US dollars, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the US CPI and core CPI data were released, and the ISM manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI data were also reported. In August, the order amount of durable goods increased by 7.63% year - on - year, and the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 22,000 [68][71][74]. - **EU and Eurozone Economy**: In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In September, the eurozone CPI and core CPI data were released, and in October, the manufacturing and service PMI data were reported [74][77]. 4. Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In September, the M1 growth rate was 7.2%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.4%. The M1 - M2 gap continued to narrow. The social financing increment was 3.53 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 233.9 billion yuan. The growth of social financing mainly came from government bonds [82]. - **Social Financing Sub - items**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds in social financing slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector remained stable. The social financing growth rate of the household and enterprise sectors was 5.94%, and the growth rate of government bonds was 20.20% [85]. - **MLF and Reverse Repurchase**: In September, the MLF balance was 5.85 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 2.068 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 867.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1.2008 trillion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.46% [88]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: Presented the latest interest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [92]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Charts**: Presented charts of Treasury bond yields, inter - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond yields of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy, the Fed's target interest rate, and exchange rates [95][97][100].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the fixed income market and macroeconomic conditions in China, particularly in relation to U.S.-China trade tensions and monetary policy adjustments by the central bank [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **U.S.-China Trade Tensions**: Ongoing trade disputes are highlighted, with the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods and software exports. Despite some temporary agreements, the potential for long-term trade friction remains a concern [1][3][14]. 2. **Monetary Policy Signals**: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed open market operations for government bonds, signaling a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy. This has led to a decrease in long-term bond yields by 4-6 basis points [1][4]. 3. **Economic Indicators**: The October PMI data fell below the growth line, influenced by seasonal factors. However, there is optimism for a rebound in manufacturing due to easing external demand constraints [1][7]. 4. **Government Debt Supply**: The net supply of government bonds in November is expected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan, doubling from the previous month, which may temporarily affect interbank liquidity [1][12]. 5. **Market Reactions**: The anticipated easing of monetary policy is expected to benefit both the stock and bond markets, enhancing growth expectations and risk appetite [1][13]. Additional Important Content 1. **CPI and PPI Trends**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show limited recovery in October, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a narrowing of declines but is unlikely to turn positive in the short term [5]. 2. **Institutional Behavior**: In October, institutional trading behavior showed a decrease in allocation size while trading volumes slightly increased. The impact of new regulations on public fund sales is a key focus for November [5][15]. 3. **Export Trends**: The trade friction is likely to have a short-term impact on exports, with positive growth expected to continue but facing potential future pressures [6]. 4. **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market has seen a decline in sales, with a need to monitor recovery signs post-extreme weather conditions [8]. 5. **Social Financing Structure**: There is a noted weakening in government bond support within the social financing structure, with corporate and household credit improvements remaining subdued [9][10]. 6. **GDP Growth Expectations**: GDP growth in the fourth quarter is expected to improve, with a target of 5% for the year remaining achievable, although high base effects from the previous year may pose challenges [11]. 7. **Banking Sector Dynamics**: Large banks have shown a trend of reduced net purchases of short-term government bonds following the resumption of bond trading operations by the PBOC [18]. 8. **Future Funding and Policy Outlook**: The funding environment is expected to stabilize under a loose monetary policy, with recommendations for investors to seize opportunities when yields reach 1.8% to 1.85% [19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the fixed income market and broader economic conditions in China.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is generally in an oscillating and favorable situation in the short - term, but there may be short - term fluctuations. The allocation value of the 10 - year bond around 1.8% continues to emerge. It is recommended to increase positions on rallies, and actively seize short - term opportunities when a significant pulse of 2 - 4BP or more occurs in a single day [2][4]. - After the cross - month period, the bond market's capital supply is likely to face limited pressure under the central bank's support. The strong positive of the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the accelerated debt - resolution leading to the increased supply of government bonds still leave room for the market to bet on loose monetary policy. However, changes in risk appetite and the upcoming implementation of the new public - offering fee regulations may cause short - term fluctuations in the bond market [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market yields declined overall this week (10/27 - 10/31). As of 10/31, the yields of 30Y, 10Y, and 1Y treasury bonds changed by - 6BP, - 4.5BP, and - 8BP respectively, closing at 2.14%, 1.80%, and 1.38%. The term spreads of 30Y - 10Y and 10Y - 1Y changed by - 1.5BP and 3.5BP respectively, closing at 35BP and 41BP [1]. - The decline in the 10Y yield was due to factors such as the market's risk - aversion sentiment under Sino - US trade frictions, the central bank's announcement of restarting open - market treasury bond trading, and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy [6]. 2. Next Week's Bond Market Outlook and Strategy (1) Bond Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: Production indicators showed differentiation, real - estate transactions had different year - on - year performances, and most price sectors rebounded. Production indicators mostly declined, demand on the consumer side mostly fell, and real - estate transactions varied. The price index rebounded this week, with a month - on - month increase ranging from 0.4% to 1.6% [25][40]. - **Supply**: From 10/27 - 11/2, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds declined. The issuance of treasury bonds was 0 billion yuan, local bonds was 2706.82 billion yuan, and inter - bank certificates of deposit was 7349.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 8930.16 billion yuan compared with last week. The issuance progress of local bonds reached 89.7%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds and new general bonds were 90.4% and 86.3% respectively [54]. - **Funding**: From 10/27 - 10/31, the central bank net - injected 12008 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase and 2000 billion yuan of MLF this month. The funding situation fluctuated and tightened marginally. It is expected that after the cross - month period, the funding situation will likely return to equilibrium [60]. (2) Bond Market Strategy - Next week, attention should be paid to four aspects: the return of funds to equilibrium after the cross - month period, the situation of subsequent treasury bond trading and further monetary operations under loose monetary policy, the impact of changes in risk appetite on the bond market driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment, and the impact of the new public - offering fee regulations [74]. - The bond market is favorable in the short - term. It is necessary to grasp the key position of 1.8%. Although the Sino - US consultations reached an agreement at the end of October, the market sentiment was not significantly boosted. The new public - offering fee regulations may cause short - term negative feedback, but the probability of substantial large - scale redemptions disturbing the market is currently limited [2][78]. 3. Next Week's Open - Market Operations and Financial Calendar - **Open - market operations**: The net injection (withdrawal) situation in the past four weeks and the next four weeks is provided, including reverse - repurchase and MLF operations. For example, this week (2025/10/31), the net injection was 14,008 billion yuan [79]. - **Financial calendar**: Information on local - government bond issuance, certificate - of - deposit maturity, reverse - repurchase maturity, MLF maturity, tax - payment weeks, and reserve - payment weeks from November 3rd to November 9th is provided [79].