证 券 研 究 报 告 乘势而上，均衡配置 ——2025年定增市场总结及2026年展望 证券分析师：彭文玉 A0230517080001 朱敏 A0230524050004 联系人: 朱敏 A0230524050004 2025.11.17 摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 解禁收益创新高，科技与周期双领跑。25年1-10月，竞价定增解禁绝对收益率均值达到31.61%，跑赢同期申万一级行业涨幅约 15.90pct，二者均创下新规后新高，且有85.53%项目绝对收益率为正，赚钱效应显著，主要系行业β及个股α双双回暖， "发行 -解禁"期间平均涨幅达15.71%、12.53%，为近三年最佳表现。其中，解禁收益结构呈现以下特征：1）定增折扣：高折价项目 收益依然领先；2）行业动能：科技成长与周期板块双双领跑；3）参与主体：大股东参与成为重要信心指标，而国资及产业资本 收益相对较弱。 ◼ 申购市场更"卷"，机构偏好分化。竞价申购市场参与热度攀升，平均申报溢价率达10.17%（较24年+2.17pct），推动基准折 价率压缩至10.97%（较24年-3.18pct），底价发行占比仅11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The speech by the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes the role of comprehensive reform in investment and financing to promote high-quality development of the capital market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2] Group 1: Market Opportunities - The current intersection of economic upgrades and capital market reforms presents new development opportunities for the securities industry, which is expected to play a more significant role [1] - Increased vulnerability in global financial markets offers a revaluation and allocation opportunity for Chinese assets, enhancing competitiveness in the investment sector [1] - A new industrial cycle led by AI and biotechnology necessitates an urgent task for the financing sector to improve inclusivity [1] Group 2: Institutional Supply and Reforms - The speech provides new guidance for the construction of capital market systems, including the introduction of unprofitable companies in the "Science and Technology Innovation Board" for IPOs, further deepening the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market [2] - A "shelf issuance system" is proposed for refinancing, aimed at efficiently injecting capital into emerging and future industries [2] - The focus on long-term investment ecology aims to strengthen patient capital aligned with technological innovation, while maintaining high-level openness to foreign investment [2] Group 3: Regulatory and Risk Management - New opinions on strengthening the protection of small investors in the capital market have been introduced to ensure internal stability [2] - The overall theme of high-quality development in the capital market is highlighted as a fundamental goal during the current and "14th Five-Year Plan" periods [2] - The speech outlines clear directions for comprehensive investment and financing reform, enhancing openness and regulatory effectiveness while balancing support for technological innovation and improving market quality [2]