报告导读： 青海打响了 114 号文后储能容量电价第一枪，随着未来各省细则落地，全国 经济性走通可期， 2026 年储能需求高增可期，我们建议增持储能板块。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 青海储能容量电价出台，114号文后全国首单；报告日期：2026.02.27 报告作者： 徐强（分析师），登记编号：S0880517040002 牟俊宇（分析师），登记编号：S0880521080003 余玫翰（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040090 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 投资建 议： 青海落地了 114 号文后首个储能容量电价，随着未来各省细则落地，全国经济性走通可期， 2026 年储能需求高增可期，我们建议增持储能板 块 ： 1 ）受 ...

国泰海通发布研报称，青海落地了114号文后首个储能容量电价，随着未来各省细则落地，全国经济性 走通可期，2026年储能需求高增可期，该行建议增持储能板块：1)受益于需求大好的储能系统和电池。 2)需求大好后，锂电材料或能量价齐增。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 青海容量电价出台，打响114号文后第一枪 2月25日，青海省发展和改革委员会发布《关于建立青海省发电侧容量电价机制的通知(征求意见 稿)》。此次公开征求意见自2026年2月25日起，至3月5日结束。对发电侧系统容量按贡献予以补偿，全 体工商业用户公平承担，建立发电侧容量补偿机制。全省合规在运公用燃煤发电，燃气发电，未纳入可 持续发展价格结算机制、不含新能源补贴的光热发电，服务于电力系统安全运行、未参与配储的电网侧 独立新型储能电站均适用于该机制。这是114号文后，第一个出容量电价的省份，未来随着各省细则出 台，全国性经济性跑通可期。 青海储能经济性走通 容量电价计算方法：容量电费=机组申报容量×容量供需系数×容量补偿标准。容量补偿标准2026年为 165元/(千瓦·年)，再乘以小时数/4。此前有的省份是/6，目前主流储能是2-4h，/4对比/6的机制给的更 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Accumulate" rating for the energy storage sector [1][3]. Core Insights - Qinghai has initiated the first capacity price for energy storage following the implementation of Document No. 114, indicating a positive trend for the economic viability of energy storage across the country as provincial regulations are expected to follow [3][6]. - The demand for energy storage is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of a 50% increase in 2026, driven by favorable capacity pricing and strong market conditions [3][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests accumulating stocks in the energy storage sector, particularly benefiting from strong demand for storage systems and batteries. Recommended stocks include Haibo Shichuang, Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Zhongchuang Innovation, and Aters. Related stocks include Sunshine Power and Penghui Energy [6][7]. - Following the anticipated demand surge, lithium battery materials are expected to see price increases. Recommended stocks in this category include Hunan Youneng, with related stocks being Wanrun New Energy, Fulian Precision, Tianji Shares, Tianci Materials, Duofluo, Enjie, Fospower, and Xingyuan Materials [6][7]. Economic Viability of Energy Storage - The capacity price calculation method has been established, with a compensation standard of 165 RMB/(kW·year) for 2026, which is more favorable compared to previous standards. The annual compensation price for a 4-hour energy storage station is calculated to be 153.77 RMB/(kW·year) [6][7]. - January data shows a significant increase in installed capacity, with 3.8 GW/10.9 GWh added, representing a year-on-year growth of 62% and 106%, respectively. The sales of energy storage batteries reached 46.1 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 164% [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Overweight" rating for the energy storage sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The introduction of the first national capacity price policy for energy storage is expected to enhance economic viability across the country, leading to significant growth in the domestic energy storage market over the next few years [3][5]. - The capacity price mechanism is crucial for the economic feasibility of energy storage projects, with examples such as Gansu province providing a capacity price of 330 RMB/kW·year, which supports a capital IRR of 11% [5]. - The impact of the capacity price on end-user electricity prices is minimal, maintaining current pricing structures for residential and agricultural users while balancing costs for commercial users [5]. Summary by Sections - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests that the establishment of a national capacity price will accelerate the development of a new energy system, with expected high growth in domestic energy storage. Key companies mentioned include Haibo Shichuang, Sunshine Power, and CATL among others [5]. - **Policy Impact**: The national capacity price policy, announced on January 30, aims to create a unified pricing mechanism for energy storage, which previously lacked a national standard. This policy lays a solid foundation for the nationwide promotion of capacity pricing [5]. - **Economic Viability**: The report emphasizes that the capacity price is essential for making energy storage economically viable, with projections indicating that as the share of renewable energy in the grid increases, the utilization and configuration duration of energy storage will improve [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from scale expansion to value enhancement in the power sector during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development and the establishment of a diversified pricing system for electricity [1][8]. Group 1: New Energy Development - The new energy installed capacity is expected to reach 1.444 billion kilowatts by the end of 2024, achieving 76% of the total new installed capacity in the country during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][9]. - The profitability of different power sources varies significantly, with coal power being sensitive to coal prices, while new energy sources are transitioning to a subsidy-free era, leading to overall declining profitability [2][8]. - The article highlights the need for addressing the consumption issues of new energy, with a focus on improving the electricity pricing system as a key policy tool [10][15]. Group 2: Power Market Reform - The power market reform is advancing, enhancing the commodity attributes of electricity, which will better reflect supply and demand dynamics across different regions and time periods [9][10]. - The introduction of capacity pricing mechanisms is expected to stabilize the profitability of thermal power plants, which are transitioning to peak-shaving roles [10][14]. - The development of new energy storage systems is crucial, with a target of reaching 180 million kilowatts of new storage capacity by 2027 [11][21]. Group 3: Wind Power Industry - The wind power sector is projected to maintain steady growth, with a target of adding no less than 12 million kilowatts of new capacity during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [26][29]. - The profitability of the wind power industry is expected to improve as the price of wind turbines rises, reversing the previous downward trend [27][28]. - The article notes that the offshore wind power market is poised for significant growth, with many projects nearing the start of construction [29][30]. Group 4: Solar Power Industry - The solar power industry is anticipated to face short-term challenges due to supply-demand mismatches, but is expected to recover as consumption capacity improves [16][22]. - The article emphasizes the importance of integrating solar power with energy storage solutions to enhance the stability and reliability of power supply [20][22]. - The solar industry is also expected to benefit from international demand, particularly in regions like Europe and Australia, where storage needs are rising [20][21].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the renewable energy and energy storage sectors in China, focusing on the implications of recent policies and market dynamics affecting these industries [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Severe Power Limitations in Northern Regions**: The "Three North" regions (including Xinjiang, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia) are experiencing significant photovoltaic (PV) power limitations, with some areas exceeding 40% curtailment. This situation necessitates the expansion of non-electric applications to address consumption issues and ensure the development of wind and solar projects [1][2]. 2. **Policy Changes Impacting Renewable Energy**: The cancellation of the full guaranteed purchase policy (Document 136) means that grid companies are no longer responsible for unconnected power, raising the bar for renewable energy markets to expand non-electric applications [2][3]. 3. **Minimum Renewable Energy Consumption Requirement**: The new regulations introduce a minimum renewable energy consumption ratio, placing responsibility on high-energy-consuming enterprises to either purchase or self-generate renewable energy [1][2]. 4. **Projected Wind and Solar Installations**: It is anticipated that wind and solar installations will maintain an annual capacity of approximately 250 GW during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating continued government support for renewable energy development [2][3]. 5. **Green Hydrogen and Methanol Development**: Green hydrogen and methanol are highlighted as crucial solutions in the energy transition, with production costs in regions like Inner Mongolia dropping to 12-13 RMB per ton, making them competitive with coal-derived hydrogen [1][4]. 6. **Energy Storage Market Dynamics**: The energy storage industry is at a turning point, with capacity compensation and electricity pricing policies becoming focal points. In Inner Mongolia, a subsidy of 0.35 RMB per kWh is stimulating the storage market, potentially leading to annual revenues of 55%-60% for storage projects [1][5][7]. 7. **Regional Policy Variations**: Different provinces are exploring capacity compensation policies, with Gansu implementing a two-year electricity pricing policy at 330 RMB per kW, aimed at ensuring cost recovery for new storage projects [2][10][12]. 8. **Future Growth of Energy Storage**: The energy storage market is expected to grow significantly, with new installations projected to reach 45-50 GW in 2025 and over 200 GW by 2027, driven by supportive provincial policies [2][11]. 9. **Profitability Challenges in Energy Storage**: Current profitability in the storage sector varies widely by region, with Inner Mongolia showing the highest returns due to favorable compensation policies, while other regions struggle to achieve profitability [1][15][16]. 10. **Technological Trends in Energy Storage**: The development of energy storage technologies is shifting towards lithium batteries, which are expected to dominate the market due to their lower costs and mature technology. Other technologies like compressed air and liquid flow storage are also being explored but face economic challenges [19][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of New Energy Orders on the PV Industry**: The introduction of new energy orders has led to price limits that affect the photovoltaic sector, with upstream silicon material price pressures being transmitted through supply-demand dynamics [25][26]. - **Differences in Storage Demand**: There is a notable difference in storage demand between China and other countries, with China's robust grid infrastructure reducing reliance on storage compared to regions like Europe and the U.S. [28][29]. - **Long-term Outlook for New Energy Storage**: While the overall urgency for new energy storage may be lower due to existing infrastructure, specific regions still require significant storage solutions due to limited interconnections and high coal dependency [29]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the renewable energy and energy storage sectors in China.

Core Insights - The 2025 World Energy Storage Conference opened in Ningde, where the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "New Energy Storage Technology Development Roadmap (2025-2035)", aiming for over 180 million kilowatts of new energy storage capacity by 2027, over 240 million kilowatts by 2030, and over 300 million kilowatts by 2035 [1][2] Group 1: Industry Development Plans - The roadmap outlines development goals for new energy storage technologies, including electrochemical storage, electromagnetic storage, mechanical storage, thermal storage, and hydrogen storage [1] - The "Action Plan for Large-Scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025-2027)" was issued, targeting over 180 million kilowatts of new energy storage capacity by 2027, with an expected direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Investment and Project Signings - During the conference, 22 new industrial projects were connected in Ningde, with a total planned investment of 36.7 billion yuan, and 18 projects were signed with a total investment of 24.58 billion yuan, covering new batteries, energy storage systems, new materials, and zero-carbon parks [1] - The commercial model innovation is seen as a key driver for future growth in the energy storage sector, with expectations for improved economic efficiency through coupling with wind and solar installations [2] Group 3: Company Performance - A total of 20 energy storage concept stocks reported net profits exceeding 100 million yuan in the first half of the year, with five companies achieving over 1 billion yuan in net profit, including CATL, BYD, and Sungrow [3][4] - BYD reported a revenue of 371.28 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 23.3%, and signed the world's largest energy storage project contract with a capacity of 12.5 GWh [3] - Sungrow's energy storage system revenue reached 17.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.78%, with its revenue share surpassing that of its photovoltaic inverter business for the first time [3] Group 4: Profit Growth Analysis - Shanshan Co. led in net profit growth with a year-on-year increase of 1079.59%, followed by Jinlang Technology and Camel Group with increases of 70.96% and 69.46%, respectively [4] - The demand for lithium battery materials continues to grow due to the high market demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage, with Shanshan Co. reporting a revenue of 9.858 billion yuan in the first half of the year [4]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong rally on September 17, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 2% to surpass 3100 points, marking a new high in over three and a half years [1] - The three major A-share indices saw fluctuations but ultimately closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37% at 3876.34 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.16% at 13215.46 points, and the ChiNext Index up 1.95% at 3147.35 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 240.32 billion yuan, an increase of 35.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Technology Sector - Semiconductor and chip stocks showed strong performance, with several stocks hitting the daily limit of 20% increase, including Liyang Chip and Fengcai Technology [3] - SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) rose nearly 7%, reaching a peak of 120.8 yuan per share, a historical high [3] - The photolithography machine concept stocks were active, with Wavelength Optics and other related companies also hitting the daily limit [1][3] Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage concept stocks surged, with Lihengxing hitting the daily limit of 20%, and Ningde Times rising nearly 7%, reaching a historical high [7] - The energy storage industry is gaining attention due to overseas demand recovery and new policies supporting installation, with global energy storage cell shipments reaching 240 GWh in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 106% [8][9] - The recent 136 document from the National Development and Reform Commission indicates a new development model for the energy storage industry, enhancing the profitability of storage projects [9] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.78% to 26908.39 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 4.22% to 6334.24 points, both reaching new highs [10] - Notable individual stock performances included Baidu Group rising nearly 16%, SMIC up over 7%, and Ningde Times increasing by more than 5%, all hitting historical highs [10] - The Hong Kong government announced initiatives to support technology companies and improve the listing mechanisms, which may enhance the financing environment for tech firms [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - In June 2025, the national electricity consumption increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with a notable decline in new energy installations due to the impact of policy 136 [4][6] - The cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, with solar power capacity growing by 54.2% and wind power by 22.7% [7][23] - The report emphasizes the potential for continued high growth in the domestic energy storage sector, supported by new provincial capacity pricing policies [9][35] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In June 2025, the total electricity consumption increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with the first, second, and third industries and urban-rural residents showing respective growth rates of 4.9%, 3.2%, 9.0%, and 10.8% [4][13] - The cumulative electricity consumption from January to June 2025 grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with the first, second, and third industries and urban-rural residents growing by 8.7%, 2.4%, 7.1%, and 4.9% respectively [4][5] Installed Capacity - As of June 2025, the cumulative installed capacity reached 3.65 billion kilowatts, with solar power at 1.1 billion kilowatts (up 54.2%) and wind power at 570 million kilowatts (up 22.7%) [7][23] - In the first half of 2025, the total new installed capacity was 293 GW, a year-on-year increase of 92.0%, with solar power contributing 212 GW (up 107.1%) and wind power 51 GW (up 98.9%) [7][23] New Energy Installations - The report notes a significant drop in new solar installations in June 2025, with only 16 GW added, compared to 23 GW in June 2024 and 92 GW in May 2025 [8][26] - Wind power installations in June 2025 were 5 GW, consistent with previous years but down from 26 GW in May 2025, indicating a need for improved operational strategies among power operators [29][33] Energy Storage - New provincial policies in Gansu and Liaoning are expected to support energy storage through capacity pricing, with Gansu setting a standard of 330 yuan per kilowatt per year for two years [9][35] - The report anticipates continued high growth in the energy storage sector, benefiting related equipment manufacturers such as Haibo Sichuang and Sunshine Power [9][35]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of energy storage capacity pricing in Liaoning Province is seen as a continuation of the capacity pricing mechanism initiated in Gansu Province, indicating a trend towards the establishment of similar policies across various provinces and potentially at the national level [1] Industry Summary - The energy storage capacity pricing mechanism is expected to enhance the revenue certainty for energy storage projects, leading to sustained high growth in domestic large-scale energy storage demand [1] - The ongoing reform of the electricity market is likely to catalyze the establishment of energy storage capacity pricing mechanisms in other provinces [1] - The energy storage industry is anticipated to experience an optimization of its competitive landscape, with a focus on recommending leading manufacturers in the energy storage supply chain, including battery cells, PCS (Power Conversion System), and system integration [1]