德业股份 20250819 摘要 德业股份当前估值较低，市盈率约为 12-13 倍，股息率约为 5%，2025 年业绩预计同比增长 15%-20%，股息吸引力强。 公司股价曾经历三轮上涨周期，均伴随单季度收入、利润及 ROE 的显著 提升，主要驱动因素包括政策、地缘政治及市场需求。 工商储是公司未来增长的核心驱动力，2024 年工商储逆变器收入占比 显著提升，全球市场对工商储需求增速迅猛，尤其在欧洲和亚非拉地区。 欧洲市场工商储装机需求快速增长，动态电价普及和补贴政策改善了投 资回报率，对德业股份业务产生积极影响。 亚非拉新兴市场缺电问题严重，制造业内流推动了对工商业储能系统的 需求，光伏配储经济性优于柴油发电，市场潜力巨大。 德业公司推出模块化工业级储能系统和一体化光储充系统，具备灵活性、 扩容性及高兼容性等优势，满足不同市场需求。 德业股份户储业务稳中有增，工商储业务快速增长，成本控制能力强， 毛利率高于竞争对手，整体财务状况良好，未来盈利能力可期。 Q&A 为什么选择在当前时间点推荐德业股份？ 选择在当前时间点推荐德业股份主要基于以下几个原因。首先，从估值角度来 看，2025 年公司预计实现 35 亿元 ...

Company Update - The company has completed a share buyback, repurchasing 1.9072 million shares, which accounts for 0.21% of its total share capital, with a maximum price of 53.75 CNY/share, a minimum price of 49.9 CNY/share, and an average price of 52.44 CNY/share, utilizing approximately 100 million CNY in total funds (excluding transaction fees) [1] Commentary - The buyback reflects the company's confidence in future growth and emphasizes shareholder returns. The repurchased shares will be used for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives, which may help align the interests of the company and its employees [2] - Short-term energy storage inverter shipments are expected to increase quarter-on-quarter in Q2 and Q3, with steady growth in household storage and a surge in industrial storage demand. The company anticipates a 20%-30% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2 shipments, with industrial storage shipments projected at 25,000 to 30,000 units. Q3 shipments are also expected to maintain a quarter-on-quarter growth trend, with some markets like Ukraine experiencing a decline in demand [2] - The average power rating for the company's industrial storage products is currently 30KW, and new products with 100KW and 125KW ratings have been successfully delivered. A complete industrial storage solution (e.g., 125KW inverter + 215KWh battery pack) is valued at approximately 260,000 CNY, and the company is optimistic about increasing the proportion of industrial storage inverter shipments, which currently stands at about 12% [2] Long-term Outlook - The company maintains a strong leadership position in the user-side energy storage sector, with a comprehensive product series and rapid iteration speed. Its low-voltage solutions for household storage are competitive in emerging markets and Europe. The inverter industry is brand and channel-driven, making it difficult for other manufacturers to gain market share through price competition [3] - Market demand is driven by the urgent need for electricity in emerging markets, and as the prices of components and batteries decrease, the return on investment for household and industrial storage is improving. In Europe, the adoption of dynamic pricing is expected to significantly boost industrial storage demand, which currently has a low penetration rate [3] - The company has achieved a 20% price reduction for its newly launched energy storage inverters compared to the previous generation, with household storage inverters maintaining a gross margin of over 40% and industrial storage inverters currently at a gross margin of 60%. The company expects to maintain a gross margin level above 50% in the long term [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains an outperform rating, slightly lowering its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 8% and 6% to 3.4 billion CNY and 4.5 billion CNY, respectively, due to fluctuating demand in markets like Ukraine and Latin America. The target price has been reduced by 27% to 80 CNY, corresponding to 21x and 16x P/E for 2025 and 2026, indicating a 49% upside potential from the current stock price, which corresponds to 14x and 11x P/E for 2025 and 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or the specific company [1]. Core Insights - The company, 崧盛股份, operates in the power grid equipment industry and had a sales revenue of 1.02 billion yuan from foreign sales in the first three quarters of 2024, accounting for 15.64% of its total revenue [17]. - The company is currently facing a projected net loss for 2024 due to several factors, including losses from its energy storage subsidiary, high R&D expenditures, significant fixed asset depreciation, and increased financial costs from convertible bond interest [17]. - The company's R&D focus is on two main areas: medium and high-power LED driver power supplies and energy storage inverters, with plans for continuous innovation and product iteration [17][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Research Information - The research was conducted on 崧盛股份 in the power grid equipment sector on March 17, 2025, with participation from various investment institutions [13]. 2. Detailed Research Institutions - The institutions involved in the research include 中肯私募基金, 亚太汇金基金, 华安证券, 民沣资本, and 丰坤资本 [14]. 3. Research Institutions Proportion - The report does not provide specific data on the proportion of research institutions involved [15]. 4. Main Content Information - The company’s North American sales are relatively low, and its inverter production is based in its Zhongshan smart manufacturing plant, utilizing a flexible production strategy [17]. - The company’s main revenue source remains its LED driver power supply business, despite the anticipated net loss for 2024 [17]. - The energy storage subsidiary is primarily using direct sales and selective agency agreements for market penetration [18].