民生福利面临困境 民生福利领域也面临不少问题。4200万人依赖补充营养援助计划，本以为停摆结束 后能立即拿到福利，但由于各州核算和未支付项的流程复杂，不少人仍需等待。例如，得克萨斯州有 380万受益人，补发福利的发放延迟了两周多，期间许多低收入家庭的食物已经接近耗尽。 可见，停摆 结束只是迈出了第一步，民生领域的后遗症仍需要时间去逐步解决。 当地停摆风险隐现 11月12日晚，美国众议院以222票对209票通过了参议院的拨款法案，特朗普总统在 椭圆形办公室签署了这份法案。这标志着美国历史上持续时间最长的联邦政府停摆，终于画上了句号。 自10月1日以来的这次停摆，持续了整整六周，打破了此前的纪录，这段时间的消耗可谓毫无意义的内 耗，甚至可以说没有给国家带来任何积极的成果。 民生复苏：欠薪补发了，但麻烦依然存在 一旦停摆结束的消息传出，最开心的无疑是联邦政府的雇员 们。67万名被迫休假的员工可以返回工作岗位，73万名未休假的工作人员也能拿到应得的补发工资。按 照规定，大家必须在5天内重新上班，其中70%的欠薪将在24至48小时内到账，其余部分将在一周内结 清。 虽然补发工资的速度看起来很快，但回想起这六周内，许多人 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years due to a failure to pass a temporary funding bill before the end of the fiscal year on September 30 [2] - Approximately 1.4 million federal employees have been forced into unpaid leave or are working without pay as a result of the shutdown [2] - Over 4,000 federal employees received layoff notices on October 10, with layoffs expected to concentrate in areas perceived to lean Democratic [2] Group 2 - The Smithsonian Institution has closed its museums, research centers, and the National Zoo starting October 12, pending an agreement to end the government shutdown [2] - The shutdown has led to the closure of various attractions, disappointing visitors like Jeff Walsh, who encountered closed doors at the National Museum of Natural History [3]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown for the first time in seven years due to the failure of a temporary funding bill to pass in the Senate, with significant economic and political implications expected [1][2] - The likelihood of the shutdown lasting more than 10 days is estimated at 69%, which could negatively impact both the U.S. economy and global markets [1][8] Government Operations and Employment - Over 750,000 federal employees have been placed on unpaid leave, with only essential services continuing to operate, leading to significant disruptions in various departments [3][5] - The shutdown could lead to long-term damage to the labor market, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on government funding such as research, education, and infrastructure [6][7] Economic Impact - Historical data suggests that a shutdown lasting a week could reduce U.S. GDP by 0.1% to 0.2%, with potential losses escalating with the duration of the shutdown [8][9] - The previous shutdown from late 2018 to early 2019 resulted in an estimated GDP loss of approximately $3 billion [6] Global Market Reactions - The shutdown is expected to create negative ripple effects in global markets, with potential losses for the EU GDP estimated at €4 billion for a two-week shutdown and €16 billion for an eight-week shutdown [8] - Increased volatility in financial markets is anticipated, with a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets like gold [8][9] Data Reporting Delays - The shutdown has caused delays in the release of key economic data, including employment statistics and inflation reports, which could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to assess economic conditions [7][8]

Core Points - The White House budget chief, Ras Watt, plans to quickly lay off federal workers, indicating a hardline strategy by Republicans to pressure Democrats to end the government shutdown [1][2] - The Trump administration is using the shutdown to reduce the size of the federal government, including suspending $18 billion in federal funding for infrastructure projects in New York City [2] - There is a push from moderate Republicans and Democrats in the Senate to find a temporary solution to reopen the government, focusing on a short-term spending bill and negotiations over healthcare subsidies [3][4] Group 1 - Ras Watt informed House members that some federal agencies will begin layoffs within one to two days, although specific details on which agencies or positions are affected were not disclosed [2] - The Trump administration has cited concerns over diversity and equity practices as reasons for the layoffs, which directly impact Democratic leaders from New York [2] - The management and budget office has called for federal agencies to prepare plans for large-scale layoffs beyond traditional furloughs to achieve its goal of reducing the federal bureaucracy [2] Group 2 - Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson stated that the government shutdown provides an opportunity to make changes that would not be possible without Democratic votes [3] - Vice President J.D. Vance downplayed the plans to cut services during the shutdown, emphasizing the desire to maintain essential government services [3] - The challenge for both parties is to garner enough support to pass a "clean" spending bill, with recent votes showing some Democrats breaking ranks to support Republican initiatives [5] Group 3 - Republicans are confident they can pressure enough Democrats to support reopening the government, with discussions ongoing about healthcare subsidies as a bargaining chip [6] - The government is likely to remain closed for at least a few days, with the House scheduled to recess and Senate leaders planning to return for voting if the shutdown continues [6] - Historical context is provided, noting previous government shutdowns during Trump's first term, particularly the significant one in late 2018 over border wall funding [6]

Core Points - The Trump administration has been targeting Harvard University, leading to significant legal and financial repercussions for the institution [1][2][3] - A federal judge has temporarily halted the Trump administration's policy to ban Harvard from enrolling foreign students, pending further legal proceedings [1][4] Group 1: Government Actions Against Harvard - The Trump administration initiated a review of Harvard's $9 billion contracts and funding, demanding reforms in recruitment and teaching [2] - Federal funding of $2.2 billion was frozen due to claims of non-compliance by Harvard, and an additional $450 million in federal research funding was terminated [2][3] - Trump threatened to revoke Harvard's tax-exempt status, a move unprecedented in U.S. history, which sparked widespread controversy [2][4] Group 2: Financial Implications for Harvard - Harvard's operational expenses for the fiscal year 2024 are projected to reach $6.4 billion, with federal research sponsorship accounting for 11% of total revenue [9] - The university warned that the loss of federal funding could jeopardize critical research projects, including those related to cancer and heart disease [9] - International students significantly contribute to Harvard's revenue, and restrictions on their enrollment could severely impact the university's financial stability [9][10] Group 3: Broader Impact on U.S. Higher Education - The targeting of Harvard is seen as part of a larger strategy that could affect the entire U.S. higher education system, with potential cuts to funding for research universities [3][6] - The Trump administration's actions have created uncertainty in the U.S. study abroad market, affecting both prospective and current international students [11] - Observers note that the ongoing conflict may weaken the U.S.'s ability to attract and retain global talent, which is crucial for maintaining its leadership in various fields [10][11]