Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in international gold prices is viewed as a technical adjustment rather than a fundamental reversal of the long-term bullish trend in gold [2][3] Group 1: Factors Contributing to Short-term Pressure on Gold Prices - The postponement of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to a stronger US dollar and direct pressure on gold prices [2] - Technical profit-taking has occurred due to the previous rapid increase in gold prices, resulting in increased volatility and price corrections as speculative long positions are liquidated [2] Group 2: Long-term Support for Gold Prices - Central banks globally continue to increase their gold reserves, driven by geopolitical risks and the diversification of foreign exchange reserves, providing strong structural buying support for the market [2] - Geopolitical risks remain high, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [2] - The rapid expansion of global debt and potential financial crisis risks undermine the credibility of fiat currencies, enhancing the monetary value of gold [2] Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The current decline is seen as a healthy "mid-game break" that allows for the digestion of crowded long trades, potentially setting the stage for the next upward movement [3] - Investors should focus on the strategic value of gold as a hedge against uncertainty rather than a tool for short-term profit [3] - Future gold price movements will depend on the timing of the Federal Reserve's policy shift and the evolution of global macro risks, with volatility expected to be a constant [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns that the bond market faces a risk of "collapse" if the U.S. government fails to control the growing federal deficit, sparking widespread discussion and varied reactions [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Dimon's comments reflect the sentiment on Wall Street during a period of significant turmoil in the bond market, with long-term bond yields rising above 5% in late May, nearing the highest levels since 2007, indicating investor concerns over holding these securities amid increasing budget deficits [2] - Despite a successful auction of 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds on June 12, concerns remain about the demand for long-term bonds from other countries, as rising yields are attributed to a slowing U.S. economy and persistent inflation above expectations [5] - The volatility in long-term bond yields is more pronounced compared to short-term bonds, as long-term bonds typically offer higher interest rates due to their longer repayment periods, leading to increased investor anxiety regarding U.S. Treasury securities [5] Group 2: Global Debt Concerns - The global debt level has reached alarming heights, with the International Institute of Finance (IIF) projecting a record $324 trillion in global debt by Q1 2025, driven by borrowing from countries like China, France, and Germany [6] - Rising inflation and interest rates make it increasingly difficult to sustain such high levels of borrowing, with concerns that continued high bond yields and poor fiscal management could lead to unmanageable debt repayment costs [6][7] - Moody's downgraded the last highest credit rating for the U.S. due to fears that the expanding debt and deficit could undermine the country's status as a primary destination for global capital [7] Group 3: Future Uncertainties - The impact of high borrowing costs on long-term bonds issued during a period of ultra-low interest rates remains uncertain, with rising yields causing unpredictable consequences in the bond market [8] - The ongoing inflation post-pandemic and potential trade policies could further exacerbate inflationary pressures, leading to higher bond yields, while also risking economic activity and complicating monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve [8]