Core Viewpoint - The recent data indicates a significant shift in global reserve management, with gold surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds in central bank reserves for the first time since 1996, signaling a potential major global rebalancing [1][2][6]. Group 1: Central Bank Behavior - Central banks are increasingly accumulating gold to reduce reliance on U.S. dollar assets, thereby diversifying potential risks associated with a single reserve currency [3][10]. - The World Gold Council (WGC) reports that global central banks have net purchased gold for 14 consecutive quarters, with annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tons in the last three years, nearly double the previous decade's average [6][9]. - A survey by WGC shows that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [9]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold is currently in its third major bull market, with prices rising 36% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and Bitcoin [11][15]. - Historical context shows that gold has experienced two previous bull markets, both linked to significant changes in the global financial system, with the current environment resembling the instability of the 1970s [16][17]. - Analysts predict that the current bull market in gold could last for several years, driven by high inflation, geopolitical tensions, and a questioning of the dollar's stability [15][17]. Group 3: Bond Market Context - The bond market is experiencing a downturn, with long-term U.S. Treasury yields reaching levels not seen in decades, leading to significant declines in bond prices [18][20]. - The current bond market conditions reflect investor concerns over inflation and debt sustainability, prompting a shift towards gold as a safer asset [21][25]. - Historical data indicates a positive correlation between U.S. government debt-to-GDP ratios and gold prices, suggesting that rising debt levels often coincide with increased gold prices [25]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with potential spikes to $4,500 or $5,000 if the Federal Reserve's independence is compromised [26]. - Bank of America and JPMorgan also forecast gold prices reaching $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, reflecting a bullish sentiment on gold amid macroeconomic uncertainties [27][28].

外国央行的美债持仓 黄金成全球第二大储备资产 近期，黄金已超越欧元，成为仅次于美元的全球第二大储备资产；同时，黄金在央行储备中的占比也自1996年以来首 次超过美国国债。 路透分析师Jamie McGeever近期撰文指出，黄金在央行储备中的占比上升似乎势不可挡。他的观点如下。 通胀担忧、美国财政健康恶化、美联储独立性争议及地缘政治动荡，正引发市场对"传统全球最安全资产"——长期美国 国债稳定性的质疑。对此，多国央行正重新转向黄金这一曾被称为"野蛮的遗迹"（barbarous relic）的资产。 今年以来，黄金与国债的走势出现显著分化——本周，金价创下历史新高，而多国长期国债收益率则升至数年高点， 部分甚至突破历史极值。 黄金与（倒置的）美债收益率的走势对比 美国国债的抛售幅度尚未达到欧洲或日本国债的水平，这主要得益于各国央行及其他管理外汇储备的官方机构对美债 仍保持稳健的基础需求。 但近年来，美债在全球外汇储备组合中基本处于"原地踏步"状态，反观各国央行的黄金持有量却大幅激增——这既源 于黄金需求加速释放，也得益于金价飙升。 今非昔比：从1990年代到当下的宏观转折 黄金上一次在全球储备中占比超过美债还是 ...