Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in October with a probability of 98.3%, and a cumulative reduction of 50 basis points by December with a probability of 93.4% [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September has been delayed due to the government shutdown, with expectations of a 0.4% month-on-month increase and a 3.1% year-on-year increase [3] - There are indications that inflation may be cooling faster than anticipated, which could support the Fed's decision to lower rates [3] Group 2 - The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Russia's largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for nearly half of Russia's oil exports [5] - The sanctions could significantly impact Russia's military operations in Ukraine, particularly as winter approaches, a period typically advantageous for Russia [5] - Market analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions, combined with expectations of Fed rate cuts, may provide a buying opportunity for gold, with potential price targets of $3900-$4400 [5]

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling below $4250 per ounce, a decrease of 2.06%, and COMEX gold futures down 2.02% [3] - Spot silver dropped below $50 per ounce for the first time since October 10, with a daily decline of 5.32%, while COMEX silver futures fell 5.36% [3] - NYMEX palladium futures plummeted by 5.71%, currently at $1449.5 per ounce, and NYMEX platinum futures decreased by 5.16%, now at $1567 per ounce [3] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown crisis is expected to improve this week, as indicated by White House Chief Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett, which may influence market sentiment [4] - UBS global wealth management strategist Sagar Khandelwal noted that increasing political and trade uncertainties are driving recent gold price momentum, with expectations of gold reaching $4700 per ounce by Q1 next year [4] - Global gold demand is projected to reach approximately 4850 tons this year, the highest since 2011, driven by strong central bank purchases and potential shifts in private investor behavior towards gold [4]

摩根大通CEO戴蒙罕见表态称持有黄金"有一定合理性"，并预测在当前环境下金价可能轻松升至5000美元甚至10000美元。这是这位华尔街领袖职业生涯中 少数几次认为黄金配置"半理性"的时刻。 周二在华盛顿举行的《财富》最具影响力女性峰会上，戴蒙做出上述表态。周三金价刚刚创下4200美元/盎司的历史新高，今年以来累计涨幅已接近60%， 这一涨幅超过了股票市场的表现。 戴蒙对整体资产估值表示谨慎，称"资产价格有些偏高"，这一判断"几乎适用于当前所有资产类别"。他本人表示不会购买黄金，理由是持有成本达4%，但 承认在当前环境下配置一定黄金具有合理性。 尽管金价大幅上涨，华尔街专业投资者对黄金的配置比例仍然较低。根据美国银行最新基金经理调查，华尔街专业投资者对黄金的配置比例仅为2.4%。 相比之下，加密货币的配置比例更低，仅为0.4%，不到黄金配置的五分之一。这表明当前黄金仍处于相对低配状态。 上周，对冲基金Citadel创始人、亿万富翁Ken Griffin也表示，投资者开始将黄金视为比美元更安全的资产，称这一趋势"确实令人担忧"。 金价创纪录涨势延续，华尔街配置比例仍处低位 黄金价格在两年前还低于2000美元，本世 ...

昨晚公布的美联储会议纪要并没有什么意外，但重要的是，多位执委会成员仍然对通胀感到担忧，这并 没有打消美联储未来两次降息的可能性，但却增加了人们对未来走势的疑问。 由于法国局势发展尚未平息，地缘政治动荡的风险笼罩着欧元区，欧元/美元连续第四天承压。目前， 法国政局似乎难以摆脱目前的困境，马克龙总统面临大选挑战的风险仍然很高。 在宏观经济环境没有发生重大变化的情况下，欧洲的最新形势无疑对欧元产生了负面影响，目前1.16的 水平略低于挑战水平，美元仍有进一步上涨的空间。 目前，法国的政治局势发展掩盖了美国政府暂时关门的阴影。美国国会拒绝批准新预算，许多公共服务 部门停摆，导致美联储密切关注的许多统计数据目前无法获取。 今天的议程是美联储官员的一系列讲话，其中鲍威尔主席的讲话尤为引人注目。 IC外汇平台对几家大型投资公司押注的欧元强劲上涨的前景保持谨慎，这增加了近期欧元在当前水平附 近盘整的可能性。 ...

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) report highlights that the international oil market is currently influenced by geopolitical tensions and concerns over oversupply [1][2] - The report indicates that while geopolitical concerns are rising, the actual impact of sanctions on oil supply from Iran and Russia has been limited so far [1][2] - The report anticipates a significant increase in global oil production, driven by both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries, with a projected rise of 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 [3] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Russia and Ukraine, are causing market anxiety, with fears of new sanctions leading to potential supply shortages [1] - The EU's decision to ban imports of refined products from Russian oil starting in 2026 may significantly alter international oil trade dynamics [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the oversupply remains a critical concern, with OPEC+ countries planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, which is part of a longer-term strategy to unwind previous production cuts [2] - Non-OPEC+ countries, including the U.S. and Canada, are maintaining production levels near historical highs, contributing to the overall supply increase [2] Production Forecasts - Global oil production is expected to rise by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025, reaching 105.8 million barrels per day, with further increases projected for 2026 [3] - OPEC+ countries are expected to increase production by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, aligning closely with the increases from non-OPEC+ countries [3] Refining Capacity and Trends - Global refinery crude processing surged by 400,000 barrels per day in August, reaching a record 85.1 million barrels per day, but is expected to decline in October due to seasonal maintenance [4] - The report projects that global refinery throughput will average 83.5 million barrels per day in 2025, with a growth of 580,000 barrels per day [4] Inventory Levels - Global oil inventories increased by 26.5 million barrels in July, with a total increase of 187 million barrels since the beginning of the year, although they remain below the five-year average [4]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) report highlights that the international oil market is currently influenced by geopolitical tensions and concerns over oversupply [1][2] - Geopolitical concerns are exacerbated by the diminishing hopes for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, alongside potential new sanctions from Western countries against Russia and Iran [1] - The report indicates that despite a decrease in oil exports from Iran and Russia, the impact of sanctions on supply and trade flows has been relatively limited so far [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that oversupply remains a significant concern in the current international oil market, with OPEC+ countries planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October [2] - Since the beginning of 2025, OPEC+ countries have only increased production by 1.5 million barrels per day, which is significantly lower than the previously announced target of 2.5 million barrels per day [2] - Non-OPEC+ countries, particularly the U.S. and Canada, are maintaining production levels close to historical peaks, contributing to the overall supply increase [2][3] Production Forecasts - Global oil production is expected to rise by 2.7 million barrels per day this year, reaching 105.8 million barrels per day, with further increases projected for 2026 [3] - Non-OPEC+ countries are anticipated to increase production by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and slightly over 1 million barrels per day in 2026, while OPEC+ countries are expected to increase production by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1 million barrels per day in 2026 [3] Refining and Inventory Trends - Global refinery crude processing surged by 400,000 barrels per day in August, reaching a record 85.1 million barrels per day, but is expected to decline by 3.5 million barrels per day in October due to seasonal maintenance [4] - Global oil inventories increased by 26.5 million barrels in July, with a cumulative increase of 187 million barrels since the beginning of the year, although they remain 67 million barrels below the five-year average [4]

Core Viewpoint - The rising share of gold in central bank reserves is becoming unstoppable, driven by concerns over inflation, deteriorating U.S. fiscal health, debates over Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitical turmoil [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is a significant divergence in the performance of gold and U.S. Treasury bonds this year, with gold prices reaching historical highs while long-term Treasury yields have surged to multi-year peaks [1] - The demand for gold has accelerated, leading to a substantial increase in central bank holdings, which now total 36,000 tons globally [8] Group 2: Reserve Composition - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, now accounting for a higher share in central bank reserves than U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996 [6][7] - The current market value of gold held by central banks is approximately $4.5 trillion, significantly exceeding the $3.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings [8] Group 3: Historical Context - The last time gold's share in global reserves exceeded that of U.S. Treasury bonds was in 1996, a period characterized by low inflation and stable economic growth [9] - The current macroeconomic environment is markedly different, favoring gold as a strategic reserve asset amid rising inflation and geopolitical shifts [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The shift in reserve management towards gold is seen as a significant milestone, indicating a deeper, long-term structural change in global reserve composition [10] - While the possibility of gold reclaiming its historical peak share of 75% in central bank reserves is low, the trend of increasing gold holdings is likely to continue in the near term due to persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple industries and commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, providing insights into market trends, supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies for each sector [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 11 contract up 1.34%. In the third quarter, the oil market supply - demand was balanced. Considering OPEC+ output increase in September and post - peak demand decline, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Look for shorting opportunities when SC11 rebounds above 495 yuan/barrel [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and Chinese ship - fuel sales declined year - on - year, but domestic refinery production was also low. Due to geopolitical premium and delayed supply pressure, LU rebounded and FU strengthened [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the gas off - season, it shows some resilience. Supported by rising import costs and domestic demand, the civil gas price increased. The high - basis difference pattern persists, and the short - term market is strong in the near term and weak in the long term [24] - **Asphalt**: In the traditional peak season, demand increases seasonally, and supply - demand tightens. The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, the US manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut. Maintain a long position and focus on the US non - farm payroll data on Friday [3] - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices broke through integer thresholds. In the short - to - medium term, it is affected by the Fed rate cut, domestic refined copper consumption substitution, and capital resonance. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Downstream开工率 has increased seasonally for four weeks. It is expected to test the resistance at 21,000 yuan in the short term [5] - **Alumina**: Production capacity is at a historical high, with rising inventory and supply surplus. It is running weakly, and pay attention to the support at 2830 - 3000 yuan [6] - **Zinc**: In September, refinery maintenance may reduce output. In the short term, it rebounds, but in the medium term, maintain a short - allocation strategy [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Due to political unrest in Indonesia, prices rebounded. Short - term short positions are suspended, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin recovered some losses. There is a shortage of concentrates, and short - term long positions can be held based on 271,000 yuan [11] - **Manganese Silicon**: Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. In the long term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory [19] - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is increasing, demand is okay, and inventory is slightly decreasing [20] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Futures prices declined, and the market was quiet. The overall sentiment is low, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [12] - **Polysilicon**: It oscillated below 52,000 yuan/ton. Before new policy details are disclosed, the PS2511 price is expected to face pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices rose slightly. In September, supply surplus will intensify, and there is a risk of a price decline after the current up - trend [14] - **Methanol**: Coastal available supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating. But with the improvement of downstream device economics, the market is expected to strengthen [26] - **Pure Benzene**: Oil prices rebounded, and benzene prices stopped falling. In the third quarter, supply - demand may improve [27] - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene provide little support. Supply - demand contradiction is increasing, and the fundamentals are weak [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Propylene production enterprises have controllable inventory pressure, but downstream acceptance of price increases is limited. Polyethylene demand is okay, while polypropylene supply pressure is increasing [29] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is high, and it may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda prices are relatively firm but may also oscillate widely [30] - **PX and PTA**: Prices are oscillating at a low level. Demand is improving, but the actual improvement is limited [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices fluctuate around 4350 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weakening, and there are both long and short factors in the medium term [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: There is uncertainty in Sino - US trade. In the short term, it may oscillate, and in the long term, there is a cautious bullish view on domestic soybean meal [37] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Prices rebounded. In the long term, consider buying at low prices, but pay attention to volatility risks [38] - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak at night. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, it may continue to run weakly at the bottom [40] - **Pigs**: Spot prices are mixed, and futures prices are weak. There is downward pressure on prices under large supply [41] - **Eggs**: Spot prices are stable, and futures prices rebounded. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for next year [42] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton may continue to oscillate. Consider buying on dips [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices are trending down, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate [44] - **Apples**: Futures prices are oscillating at a high level. In the short term, prices may rise, but in the long term, there is limited upside [45] - **Timber**: Futures prices are oscillating. Supply may remain low, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [46] - **Paper Pulp**: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and a wait - and - see or range - trading approach is recommended [47] Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: MSC announced empty - sailing plans for the Golden Week. Spot prices are under pressure, and the market is expected to oscillate [21] - **Stock Index**: The market is adjusting, and there is short - term macro uncertainty. Increase allocation to technology - growth sectors [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures prices oscillated flat. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [49]

Core Viewpoint - The French government aims to save €43.8 billion over four years to alleviate the fiscal deficit crisis and restore public finance stability in the 2026 budget plan [1] Budget Measures - The budget plan includes measures such as freezing certain government expenditures, reducing the number of civil servants, cutting social welfare, shortening public holidays, and imposing temporary taxes on high-income earners [1] Additional Budget Considerations - The budget plan is complicated by President Macron's proposal to add €3.5 billion for national defense, which adds further complexity to the already challenging fiscal strategy [1] - The budget also takes into account various uncertain factors, including the reinstatement of tariffs by the U.S. government affecting international trade and geopolitical tensions arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Government Coordination - Prime Minister Borne has had multiple discussions with President Macron regarding the budget plan and held a coordination meeting with relevant ministers to address this issue [1]

Group 1 - European countries feel insecure about the reliability of the U.S. government under the current administration, leading to discussions about repatriating gold stored in Wall Street [1][4] - The total value of gold stored by European countries in the U.S. is approximately one trillion dollars, raising concerns about the safety of these assets [1] - The U.S. holds the largest gold reserves globally at 8,133.5 tons, significantly surpassing other countries, with Germany and Italy following at 3,351.5 tons and 2,451.8 tons respectively [2] Group 2 - There is a growing sentiment in Germany and Italy to repatriate gold reserves due to dissatisfaction with U.S. policies and actions, which are perceived as aggressive and self-serving [4][5] - Despite proposals to return gold to their home countries, Germany and France have faced refusals from the U.S., with no clear reasons provided for these denials [5] - The current geopolitical climate and trade tensions have exacerbated feelings of distrust among European nations towards the U.S. administration [2][4]