Group 1 - UBS's report addresses ten challenging questions from investors regarding global economic conditions and strategic outlook [1] - The report highlights that current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, with global growth tracking at a mere 1.3% year-on-year, placing it in the 8th lowest historical percentile [1] - The report indicates that the recent dollar sell-off is not indicative of a long-term depreciation trend, as it lacks key elements seen in previous cycles, such as improved economic growth in other regions [2] Group 2 - The initial impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation data is expected to manifest in the July CPI report, with significant effects potentially delayed by one to two months [3] - There is a notable discrepancy between reported trade data and container shipping data, suggesting that foreign exporters are not significantly lowering prices to absorb tariff costs [4] - The U.S. budget deficit is primarily influenced by the 2017 tax cuts, with concerns about supply issues persisting, but historical demand fluctuations are expected to absorb any supply increases [5] Group 3 - Evidence suggests a reduction in foreign investors' exposure to U.S. assets, with April data indicating asset sell-offs, although the continuation of this trend remains uncertain [6] - The U.S. stock market typically outperforms during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is largely driven by the U.S. economy, with European markets showing unexpected resilience [7] - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to provide a 45 basis point boost to economic growth by 2026, despite initially increasing the deficit [9] Group 4 - Central banks globally are adjusting their policies in response to tariff impacts, with expectations of 1-3 rate cuts, while the Fed faces a dilemma balancing inflation and employment concerns [10] - China has implemented fiscal stimulus measures equivalent to 1.5-2% of GDP, with further monetary easing anticipated, including a potential 20-30 basis point rate cut [11]

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Global Economy - Current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, and even with a trade agreement, it is unlikely that tariffs will decrease significantly [1] - Global growth tracking estimates a current annual rate of only 1.3%, which is at the 8th lowest percentile historically [1] - There is a significant divergence between hard and soft data following tariff announcements, with a peak gap not seen in 27 years [1] Group 2: U.S. Dollar Dynamics - UBS is bearish on the dollar from a cyclical perspective but does not view this as the start of a long-term depreciation trend [2] - The current dollar sell-off lacks key elements that characterized past long-term declines, such as improved economic growth in other regions and reduced risk premiums [2] Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - Initial impacts of tariffs are beginning to show in private sector data, but delays in transmission to official consumer price indices are expected [3] - Significant effects on CPI from tariffs are anticipated to manifest in July's data, which will be released in August [3] Group 4: Global Exporters' Response - Evidence of a "tariff rush" in Q1 indicates that trade volumes have not yet stabilized despite price increases [4] - There is little evidence that foreign exporters are absorbing tariff costs by lowering export prices, and the impact of dollar depreciation on their profits is noted [4] Group 5: U.S. Fiscal Outlook and Global Interest Rates - The majority of changes in budget deficits stem from the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, with no fundamental changes expected post-election [6] - Concerns about supply issues persist, but historically, demand fluctuations have been more significant than supply [6] Group 6: Capital Flows from the U.S. - There is a widely accepted view that foreign investors are reducing exposure to U.S. assets, supported by April's international capital flow data [7] - The ongoing decline of the dollar suggests that foreign exchange hedging may be a driving factor behind this trend [7] Group 7: U.S. vs. European Stock Markets - U.S. stock markets typically perform better during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is primarily driven by the U.S. economy [8] - Comparisons reveal that U.S. valuations are exceptionally high while European markets appear relatively cheap [8] Group 8: "One Big Beautiful" Act's Economic Impact - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to increase deficits before 2026, with a total reduction of $0.4 trillion over ten years [8] - The act is expected to provide a boost of approximately 45 basis points to economic growth by 2026 [8] Group 9: Central Banks' Response to Tariff Escalation - Central banks have shifted their views due to the absence of retaliatory measures and dollar depreciation, with expectations of 1-3 policy rate cuts [9] - The current situation is viewed as simpler than a "stagflation" scenario, allowing for potential easing policies [9]

Group 1 - The Australian Treasurer Chalmers held discussions with US Treasury Secretary Yellen regarding tax increases, tariffs, and global growth [1]

特朗普贸易战90天"休战期"过半，下周即将公布的一系列经济数据，将全面揭示关税的真实影响。 周一中国4月社零和工业等经济数据将率先出炉，随后周四标普全球将公布主要经济体PMI指数，这些 数据将共同勾勒出美国关税政策对全球增长产生的实质影响。 国际贸易环境仍然高度不确定，市场广泛预计这些关税将抑制全球增长并推高通胀。 彭博经济学家指出： 周二七国集团财长将在加拿大会面，这可能会形成对贸易冲击的集体评估，前提是他们能够就公报达成 一致。 此外，欧盟委员会将在周一发布经济预测，欧洲央行则将在两天后提供关于金融稳定性影响的评估。 根据标普全球数据，4月份全球PMI已降至17个月低点，而下周的事件和报告将集中展示特朗普关税所 引发的震荡波及范围。 关注PMI会否显示增长放缓且通胀走高 虽然中国数据反映的是4月情况，但标普全球的PMI数字则是5月份的，将提供包括澳大利亚、日本、欧 元区、英国和美国在内的经济活动初步评估。 中国方面，周一将公布一系列经济数据，预计中国4月零售将更强劲，工业生产可能放缓，失业率保持 不变。美国方面，周四将公布每周失业救济金数据，以及标普全球将发布5月制造业和服务提供商的初 步调查。根据经济学 ...

瑞银(UBS.N)CEO：未来的经济走势尤其难以预测，关税对全球增长和通胀构成重大风险。 ...