亚洲开发银行前行长浅川雅嗣：美元更容易被抛售，所以日本不太可能接受美国提出的支撑日元的要 求。 ...

Group 1 - UBS's report addresses ten challenging questions from investors regarding global economic conditions and strategic outlook [1] - The report highlights that current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, with global growth tracking at a mere 1.3% year-on-year, placing it in the 8th lowest historical percentile [1] - The report indicates that the recent dollar sell-off is not indicative of a long-term depreciation trend, as it lacks key elements seen in previous cycles, such as improved economic growth in other regions [2] Group 2 - The initial impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation data is expected to manifest in the July CPI report, with significant effects potentially delayed by one to two months [3] - There is a notable discrepancy between reported trade data and container shipping data, suggesting that foreign exporters are not significantly lowering prices to absorb tariff costs [4] - The U.S. budget deficit is primarily influenced by the 2017 tax cuts, with concerns about supply issues persisting, but historical demand fluctuations are expected to absorb any supply increases [5] Group 3 - Evidence suggests a reduction in foreign investors' exposure to U.S. assets, with April data indicating asset sell-offs, although the continuation of this trend remains uncertain [6] - The U.S. stock market typically outperforms during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is largely driven by the U.S. economy, with European markets showing unexpected resilience [7] - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to provide a 45 basis point boost to economic growth by 2026, despite initially increasing the deficit [9] Group 4 - Central banks globally are adjusting their policies in response to tariff impacts, with expectations of 1-3 rate cuts, while the Fed faces a dilemma balancing inflation and employment concerns [10] - China has implemented fiscal stimulus measures equivalent to 1.5-2% of GDP, with further monetary easing anticipated, including a potential 20-30 basis point rate cut [11]

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Global Economy - Current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, and even with a trade agreement, it is unlikely that tariffs will decrease significantly [1] - Global growth tracking estimates a current annual rate of only 1.3%, which is at the 8th lowest percentile historically [1] - There is a significant divergence between hard and soft data following tariff announcements, with a peak gap not seen in 27 years [1] Group 2: U.S. Dollar Dynamics - UBS is bearish on the dollar from a cyclical perspective but does not view this as the start of a long-term depreciation trend [2] - The current dollar sell-off lacks key elements that characterized past long-term declines, such as improved economic growth in other regions and reduced risk premiums [2] Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - Initial impacts of tariffs are beginning to show in private sector data, but delays in transmission to official consumer price indices are expected [3] - Significant effects on CPI from tariffs are anticipated to manifest in July's data, which will be released in August [3] Group 4: Global Exporters' Response - Evidence of a "tariff rush" in Q1 indicates that trade volumes have not yet stabilized despite price increases [4] - There is little evidence that foreign exporters are absorbing tariff costs by lowering export prices, and the impact of dollar depreciation on their profits is noted [4] Group 5: U.S. Fiscal Outlook and Global Interest Rates - The majority of changes in budget deficits stem from the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, with no fundamental changes expected post-election [6] - Concerns about supply issues persist, but historically, demand fluctuations have been more significant than supply [6] Group 6: Capital Flows from the U.S. - There is a widely accepted view that foreign investors are reducing exposure to U.S. assets, supported by April's international capital flow data [7] - The ongoing decline of the dollar suggests that foreign exchange hedging may be a driving factor behind this trend [7] Group 7: U.S. vs. European Stock Markets - U.S. stock markets typically perform better during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is primarily driven by the U.S. economy [8] - Comparisons reveal that U.S. valuations are exceptionally high while European markets appear relatively cheap [8] Group 8: "One Big Beautiful" Act's Economic Impact - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to increase deficits before 2026, with a total reduction of $0.4 trillion over ten years [8] - The act is expected to provide a boost of approximately 45 basis points to economic growth by 2026 [8] Group 9: Central Banks' Response to Tariff Escalation - Central banks have shifted their views due to the absence of retaliatory measures and dollar depreciation, with expectations of 1-3 policy rate cuts [9] - The current situation is viewed as simpler than a "stagflation" scenario, allowing for potential easing policies [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to have a significant impact on the direction of the US dollar, with a potential for a stronger euro and other non-USD currencies if the data is weak [1][2][4] - Citigroup's global foreign exchange strategy team predicts that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.4% with only 85,000 new jobs added, which could trigger widespread selling of the dollar [1][5] - The report indicates that even if the non-farm data is weak, the dollar's decline may be limited due to high expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and pre-existing short positions on the dollar by leveraged funds [1][7] Group 2 - Citigroup maintains a bearish outlook on the dollar, emphasizing that the current market environment presents ongoing asymmetric risks for the dollar [2][4] - The report suggests that if the non-farm data aligns with Citigroup's predictions, the market's pricing for a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve could increase significantly, potentially reaching a 50% probability [5][6] - The euro-to-dollar exchange rate is unlikely to break the 1.20 level without additional catalysts, as the unemployment rate is expected to rise and non-farm employment growth is projected to slow [6][9] Group 3 - Key factors limiting the euro's rise include the high threshold for a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve, market positioning with increased dollar short positions, and the upcoming Independence Day holiday which may lead to profit-taking [7][9] - Citigroup believes that for the euro to stabilize above 1.20, clearer signals are needed, such as the unemployment rate approaching 5% by year-end or adjustments in foreign exchange hedging ratios due to lower hedging costs [9]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar bear market has just begun, with a large-scale sell-off expected in the coming months as institutional investors adjust their portfolios [1][5]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Behavior - Institutional investors are in the process of reallocating their portfolios, which may lead to significant dollar sell-offs [5]. - Many long-term investors are actively seeking opportunities to reduce their dollar exposure [5]. - The recent information suggests that the rebound of the dollar after the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions is likely a temporary phenomenon [5]. Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. dollar has depreciated over 5% this year due to concerns over economic slowdown and rising inflation triggered by the trade war [2]. - Foreign holdings of U.S. securities have doubled over the past decade, reaching an unprecedented $32 trillion [6]. - A potential wave of dollar sell-offs could be triggered by foreign investors, particularly Asian exporters, as they liquidate accumulated dollar assets [6]. Group 3: Future Predictions - Jens Nordvig predicts that the dollar is facing a significant structural shift, suggesting a long-term decline [1][6]. - The combination of structural capital flows and the cyclical forces of the Federal Reserve is expected to lead to a substantial drop in the dollar's value [7]. - Investors are advised to prepare for potential increases in the euro and gold prices as the dollar weakens [8].