为何4月份PMI会出现明显下滑？广开首席产业研究院资深研究员马泓认为，季节性因素可能是主要原 因。 "通常，3月季末是资金发放落实情况较好的时间，财政资金和银行信贷资金都在这个时间段下达，随着 资金集中到位，4月份就会出现自然回落的情况。"马泓同时指出，4月份中美关税争端热度上升，可能 对行业信心产生暂时性影响，也表现为PMI的下滑。 6月30日，国家统计局公布数据，6月份制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点， 制造业景气水平继续改善。 制造业采购经理指数(PMI)是国际上通用的监测宏观经济走势的先行性指数之一。PMI高于50%时，反 映经济总体较上月扩张；低于50%，则反映经济总体较上月收缩。 制造业景气水平继续改善 今年以来，制造业PMI呈现一定波动。3月份制造业PMI为50.5%，达到今年以来最高点，随后出现转 折，4月份下滑1.5个百分点至49%，回落至收缩区间。 装备制造业态势较好，产需两端均较为活跃 近年来，随着我国制造业转型升级持续推进，装备制造业和高技术制造业"领跑"全部制造业。6月份， 装备制造业、高技术制造业PMI分别为51.4%、50.9%，均连续两个月位于 ...

Group 1 - The New York stock market showed mixed performance on June 3, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 214.16 points to close at 42519.64, a gain of 0.51% [1] - The S&P 500 index increased by 34.43 points to 5970.37, reflecting a rise of 0.58%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 156.34 points to 19398.96, marking an increase of 0.81% [1] - Among the S&P 500 sectors, eight out of eleven sectors gained, with the technology and energy sectors leading with increases of 1.48% and 1.11% respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that job openings in April 2025 reached 7.391 million, exceeding market expectations of 7.1 million and the revised figure of 7.2 million from March [1] - The U.S. Commerce Department announced that new orders for manufactured goods in April amounted to $594.6 billion, a month-over-month decline of 3.7%, which was worse than the market expectation of -3% [2] - The OECD downgraded the U.S. economic growth forecast for this year from 2.2% to 1.6% due to trade uncertainties and tariffs [2] Group 3 - Analyst Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities indicated that market expectations are optimistic regarding a potential phone call between U.S. and Chinese leaders, which could positively impact bilateral relations, with Nvidia identified as a key beneficiary [2] - Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA, suggested that the S&P 500 index may fluctuate between 5700 and its historical high from February until clearer data on Q2 GDP and earnings is available [2] - Nvidia's stock price rose significantly by 2.8% to $141.22 per share, with other semiconductor stocks also showing notable gains [2]

5月22日，由上海期货交易所和中国金融期货交易所共同主办的2025上海衍生品市场论坛在上海期货大 厦举行。上海财经大学校长刘元春在主题演讲中表示，外部环境的变化是近年来影响我国宏观经济走势 的重要变量。 "国内方面，新动能持续积累，成为中国经济穿越周期的核心力量。房地产市场已摆脱低谷，但底部的 位置以及触底反弹的时点都具有不确定性。更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策组合快速提振了 内需，但一揽子超常规政策是否可以遏制'债务——通缩效应'和'资产负债表收缩效应'，促使GDP平减 指数转正，还有待观察。国内因素也是主导我国宏观经济运行的核心力量。但当下，需要重点思考的是 外部环境的变化。"刘元春认为，对外部环境的分析，绝不是简单地关注关税和外贸问题，而是需要系 统性考量。 整体来看，他认为，外部环境变化带来的直接冲击并没有想象中猛烈，市场的实际表现也与很多市场主 体的预测不一致。一是对美出口韧性超预期。在2024年同期高基数和平均加征110%高关税的背景下， 我国对美出口增速回落幅度有限。二是转口贸易强度超预期。2025年4月，我国对美国、东盟、拉美的 整体出口增速为4.7%，其中对东盟、拉美两大转口地的出口 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent shareholder meeting of Cheung Kong Holdings (长和) was the progress of the port transaction, with Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) being one of the potential investors [1] - The management, including Li Ka-shing, participated in the meeting via video, and there was a notable absence of in-depth commentary on business matters, reflecting uncertainty about future predictions due to unpredictable factors [1][4] - Li Ka-shing expressed concerns about the impact of changing tariff policies and geopolitical tensions on the global economy, making it difficult to forecast future trends [4] Group 2 - The company indicated that the decision to increase dividends in the future will depend on various factors, including performance and external economic conditions [4] - The port and related services segment is the smallest among Cheung Kong's business divisions in terms of revenue and EBITDA contribution [4] - The retail business is expected to see strong growth in Europe and Asia, with plans to increase store numbers and enhance the "O+O" (online and offline) service platform [4][5] Group 3 - Cheung Kong is actively cooperating with local authorities regarding the merger of its UK telecom subsidiary "Three UK" with Vodafone, with expectations to complete the process by the end of the year [5]

新华财经上海5月22日电 5月22日，由上海期货交易所（下称："上期所"）和中国金融期货交易所（下 称："中金所"）共同主办的2025上海衍生品市场论坛（下称："上衍论坛"）在沪举行。上海财经大学校 长刘元春在以"中国宏观经济形势与展望"为题发表演讲时表示，中国中高端产品的不可替代性以及转口 贸易构成了中国出口的韧性。。 刘元春解释称，一方面，市场对美国债务的不可持续性的担忧，使得美国基准10年期国债收益率持续上 行，成为美元走弱的原因之一。美债是否持续突破4.5%，已经成为一个全球资本市场极为关注的核心 指标。另一方面，全球资本流动结构正在发生重要转变，从去年底迄今，美股和美债的国际资本净流入 持续下降，投资者开始对美国金融资产的吸引力产生疑问。 刘元春表示，当前美国政府的一系列举措背后是希望重构美国的制造业基础、金融体系、全球经济治理 逻辑。关税政策或许只是开始，金融领域的变革或许才是未来更深层次的挑战。 （文章来源：新华财经） 尽管外部政策不确定性加剧，但中国经济展现出显著弹性与韧性。刘元春表示，从出口数据看，3月和4 月中国出口增速超预期反弹，对非美国家出口额大幅度增长，主要原因在于出口结构变化。 " ...

Core Insights - Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, believes that while signs of economic slowdown are evident, a recession is not imminent [1][3] - Bostic anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, driven by a projected economic growth rate of 0.5% to 1% [3][4] - The uncertainty in trade policies is contributing to cautious business investment decisions, which is impacting overall economic activity [3][6] Economic Growth and Monetary Policy - Bostic's analysis indicates that consumer confidence is declining, which is a significant factor in the expected economic slowdown [3] - The demand for interest rate cuts may become more pressing by 2025 due to ongoing economic uncertainties [4] - The Federal Reserve's current stance remains unchanged, but future rate cuts may be considered as a means to alleviate economic slowdown pressures [4][7] Trade Policy and Inflation - Bostic expressed concerns about the 90-day extension of "reciprocal tariffs," highlighting that trade tensions, despite some easing, still create market caution [6] - He noted that while short-term tariff fluctuations may exert upward pressure on prices, inflation remains a critical issue for the Federal Reserve to monitor [6] - The need for the Federal Reserve to maintain policy flexibility to address potential inflationary pressures is emphasized [6][7] Overall Sentiment - Bostic's views align with those of other Federal Reserve officials, who share concerns regarding inflation and unemployment risks [7] - The Federal Reserve's future decisions will be influenced by changes in both global and domestic economic conditions, with a focus on balancing economic growth and inflation [7]

瑞银(UBS.N)CEO：未来的经济走势尤其难以预测，关税对全球增长和通胀构成重大风险。 ...