美联储会议纪要：受访者认为财政前景是影响10年期国债收益率的主要因素 金十数据7月10日讯，最新公布的美联储6月会议纪要显示，在美联储操作小组(Desk)的一项调查中，受 访者对未来两年10年期国债收益率预测背后的主要因素是什么，在回答这一问题时，财政前景是最多受 访者提到的因素。 ...

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Global Economy - Current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, and even with a trade agreement, it is unlikely that tariffs will decrease significantly [1] - Global growth tracking estimates a current annual rate of only 1.3%, which is at the 8th lowest percentile historically [1] - There is a significant divergence between hard and soft data following tariff announcements, with a peak gap not seen in 27 years [1] Group 2: U.S. Dollar Dynamics - UBS is bearish on the dollar from a cyclical perspective but does not view this as the start of a long-term depreciation trend [2] - The current dollar sell-off lacks key elements that characterized past long-term declines, such as improved economic growth in other regions and reduced risk premiums [2] Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - Initial impacts of tariffs are beginning to show in private sector data, but delays in transmission to official consumer price indices are expected [3] - Significant effects on CPI from tariffs are anticipated to manifest in July's data, which will be released in August [3] Group 4: Global Exporters' Response - Evidence of a "tariff rush" in Q1 indicates that trade volumes have not yet stabilized despite price increases [4] - There is little evidence that foreign exporters are absorbing tariff costs by lowering export prices, and the impact of dollar depreciation on their profits is noted [4] Group 5: U.S. Fiscal Outlook and Global Interest Rates - The majority of changes in budget deficits stem from the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, with no fundamental changes expected post-election [6] - Concerns about supply issues persist, but historically, demand fluctuations have been more significant than supply [6] Group 6: Capital Flows from the U.S. - There is a widely accepted view that foreign investors are reducing exposure to U.S. assets, supported by April's international capital flow data [7] - The ongoing decline of the dollar suggests that foreign exchange hedging may be a driving factor behind this trend [7] Group 7: U.S. vs. European Stock Markets - U.S. stock markets typically perform better during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is primarily driven by the U.S. economy [8] - Comparisons reveal that U.S. valuations are exceptionally high while European markets appear relatively cheap [8] Group 8: "One Big Beautiful" Act's Economic Impact - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to increase deficits before 2026, with a total reduction of $0.4 trillion over ten years [8] - The act is expected to provide a boost of approximately 45 basis points to economic growth by 2026 [8] Group 9: Central Banks' Response to Tariff Escalation - Central banks have shifted their views due to the absence of retaliatory measures and dollar depreciation, with expectations of 1-3 policy rate cuts [9] - The current situation is viewed as simpler than a "stagflation" scenario, allowing for potential easing policies [9]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that geopolitical risks will elevate oil prices, with Brent crude potentially facing a $10 per barrel risk premium despite expectations of a drop to around $60 per barrel in Q4 under normal supply conditions [1] - Fitch Ratings states that the fiscal outlook for the U.S. remains challenging, projecting that the general government fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP will decrease from nearly 8% in 2024 to 7.1% in 2025, but will rise to 7.6% by 2026 [1] - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that if the U.S. confirms involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, the dollar may decline, as U.S. intervention could accelerate the conflict's resolution and reduce Iran's motivation for oil supply disruptions [1] Group 2 - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) reports that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to act hastily in the face of inflation, maintaining a cautious stance and indicating no immediate plans for rate cuts [2] - CITIC Securities expects the Federal Reserve to implement two or fewer rate cuts in 2023, with the central tendency for the target rate remaining at 3.9% [3] - CITIC Securities anticipates that Level 3 (L3) autonomous driving will become the main upgrade direction from Q4 2025 to 2026, driven by increased regulatory focus on safety [4] Group 3 - China Merchants Macro reports that the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to potential stagflation risks is delaying rate cuts, with internal divisions evident regarding future monetary policy [5][6] - Huaxi Securities notes that the market is returning to a volatile pattern, with upward pressure from profit-taking and support for bullish sentiment [6] - Minsheng Macro predicts that hard economic data in the U.S. will likely decline in the second half of the year, with stagflation risks becoming a key factor influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions [6]