A H 股市场周度观察（2 月第 1 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 1、《当前市场调整是大周期见顶还 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 报告摘要 一、A 股： 二、港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 周）》2025-08-04 何？》2025-08-03 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周 A 股延续调整，宽基指数普遍收跌：上证指数周跌约 1.27%，深证 成指周跌约 2.11%，创业板指周跌约 3.28%。风格层面，大盘价值相对抗跌，而成长 与中小盘回撤更明显；行业层面，食品饮料、银行等偏防御方向领涨，而有色金属、 通信、电子等高β板块领跌。成交额方面，本周沪深两市日均成交额明显缩量。 相关报告 【深度剖析】本周 A 股市场整体呈现震荡回调走势，主要受海外与大类资产风险扰动。 一方面，黄金，白银等贵金属本周持续大幅震荡，对 A 股风险偏好造成持续扰动。另 一方面， ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the Middle East situation, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, has led to significant volatility in global markets, especially in oil and precious metals prices. Group 1: Conflict Overview - On June 13, Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, targeting multiple locations including energy facilities, which resulted in fires and explosions [1][3] - Iran retaliated with missile attacks on June 16, hitting key infrastructure in cities like Haifa and Tel Aviv, causing further damage [3] Group 2: Market Impact - The conflict has caused a dramatic increase in oil prices, with WTI crude oil surging over 14% on the day of the conflict, closing at $73.18 per barrel, marking the largest single-day increase since March 2022 [3] - Following the initial surge, WTI futures opened higher again on June 16, but the market showed signs of instability, with prices retracting before the close [3] Group 3: Supply and Price Projections - Analysts predict that if Iranian oil supply is disrupted, the global supply gap could reach 1.6 million barrels per day, potentially raising oil prices by $5 to $10 per barrel [4] - Morgan Stanley has revised its Q3 Brent crude oil price forecast to $67.50 per barrel, citing the conflict's impact on supply [4] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility due to geopolitical tensions, some analysts believe that the fundamental market dynamics will dictate long-term trends, with oil prices expected to stabilize above $60 per barrel in the coming years [5] - The ongoing geopolitical risks are seen as temporary shocks, with the underlying fundamentals remaining the primary drivers of market performance [5]