● 本报记者 万宇 2月20日，春节假期后港股市场率先开盘。截至2月25日，恒生指数累计上涨0.22%，恒生科技指数累计 下跌近2%。同时，港股市场板块表现分化，电讯业、能源业、工业、原材料业等板块上涨，必需性消 费、综合企业、医疗保健业等板块出现调整。个股方面，大昌微线集团、玖源集团、普天通信集团、亚 博科技控股等大幅上涨，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、泡泡玛特等下跌。 民生加银基金的基金经理刘欣也对港股市场保持相对乐观，但他同时提示，港股性价比相对低于A股市 场。 港股市场春节假期之后持续波动，部分板块表现分化。公募基金在市场调整之际布局港股，把握后市机 会。多家基金机构仍然对港股投资持相对积极的看法，看好科技与周期品种等。 资金持续布局 诺安基金认为，港股近期表现波动是市场担忧流动性收紧和港股特色结构吸引力下降的共同结果。在整 体信用周期震荡甚至阶段性走弱的情形下，市场指数层面上行空间有限，机会主要来自景气结构方面。 虽然近期港股表现不尽如人意，但资金近来持续积极布局港股。统计显示，截至2月24日，今年以来份 额增加前十的ETF中，有一半是投资港股市场的跨境ETF，华泰柏瑞恒生科技ETF份额增加134.36亿 份 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue structural growth in the short term, supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and the ongoing recovery of A-share sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The demand for AI is showing continuous improvement, which will benefit the technology sector in Hong Kong stocks [1] - Investors should remain cautious of external policy uncertainties, such as recent adjustments to the value-added tax scope, which have raised concerns about the tax burden on internet value-added services and triggered a rapid decline in platform technology stocks [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - In terms of industry structure, essential consumption and public utilities are relatively resilient, while information technology and materials sectors are leading the decline, reflecting weak market risk appetite [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - A prudent allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend assets as a foundation, while also paying attention to sectors with both profit improvement and growth potential in technology and consumption [1] Group 4: Index Information - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF (159712) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index (930931), which selects 50 representative securities from Hong Kong listed companies available for trading through the Stock Connect, emphasizing the financial sector while also covering telecommunications and consumption [1] - The constituent stocks of this index exhibit high market liquidity and scale characteristics, aiming to reflect the overall performance of large blue-chip enterprises in the Hong Kong stock market [1]

A H 股市场周度观察（2 月第 1 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 1、《当前市场调整是大周期见顶还 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 报告摘要 一、A 股： 二、港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 周）》2025-08-04 何？》2025-08-03 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周 A 股延续调整，宽基指数普遍收跌：上证指数周跌约 1.27%，深证 成指周跌约 2.11%，创业板指周跌约 3.28%。风格层面，大盘价值相对抗跌，而成长 与中小盘回撤更明显；行业层面，食品饮料、银行等偏防御方向领涨，而有色金属、 通信、电子等高β板块领跌。成交额方面，本周沪深两市日均成交额明显缩量。 相关报告 【深度剖析】本周 A 股市场整体呈现震荡回调走势，主要受海外与大类资产风险扰动。 一方面，黄金，白银等贵金属本周持续大幅震荡，对 A 股风险偏好造成持续扰动。另 一方面， ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its spring rally from late December 2025, with a focus on large-cap stocks before the Lunar New Year and better performance in growth sectors supported by policy directions [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The performance expectations for Hong Kong stocks have significantly adjusted, with a slowdown in the downward revision of earnings forecasts since late December 2025 [1] - The average return of the Hang Seng Index during the spring rally over the past eleven years is 2.4%, with a weekly win rate of 70.8%, particularly strong in 2019, 2021, and 2023, averaging a 10.6% increase [2] - The upcoming earnings reports for Hong Kong stocks are expected to be concentrated from late March to early April, indicating a period of performance vacuum [1][2] Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Short-term investment focus should be on three main lines: 1) "14th Five-Year Plan" policy directions including biomanufacturing, embodied intelligence, and 6G; 2) food delivery platforms and real estate benefiting from policy-driven expectations; 3) non-bank financials benefiting from the spring rally [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to guide long-term investment opportunities, with strategic emerging industries like new energy, new materials, and quantum technology likely to receive policy support [3] Group 3: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The liquidity outlook for Hong Kong stocks is expected to improve as the market approaches the next peak of stock unlocks, with significant reductions in unlock amounts in January and February 2026 [1] - Historical data shows that net inflows from southbound trading in January and February account for an average of 19.3% and 27.9% of the annual total, respectively [2]

Group 1: A-Share Market - The A-share market showed a mixed performance this week, with value sectors being relatively strong. Major indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI 2000 saw slight increases, while the ChiNext index fell by 2.26%. Value performance was notable across large, mid, and small-cap stocks, with sectors such as retail, consumer services, and non-bank financials leading the gains. The average daily trading volume was 1.76 trillion, down 9.86% week-on-week [6][7]. - The market experienced a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery, indicating structural hotspots. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) chairman emphasized the need to deepen the capital market's 14th Five-Year Plan and expand high-level opening-up to boost market confidence. The Central Financial Office highlighted that expanding domestic demand is a primary task for the coming year, aiming to stimulate consumption through supply and demand-side efforts [6][7]. - Looking ahead, the A-share market is expected to remain structurally active due to ongoing policy support for capital markets and consumption. Despite a decline in trading volume, support from emerging industries like technology and new energy, along with the push for domestic demand, will provide market backing. Investors are advised to focus on sectors benefiting from policy support, such as consumption upgrades, technological innovation, and high-end manufacturing [7]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market faced overall pressure this week, with major indices recording declines. The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.1%, 1.96%, and 2.82%, respectively, with the technology index experiencing the largest drop. Essential consumer and financial sectors rose against the trend, while most sectors, including information technology and non-essential consumer goods, showed weakness [8]. - Despite the overall pressure, the market was supported by expectations of improved liquidity due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In 2025, the Fed has already cut rates three times, with potential for further easing, which may optimize the debt side for Hong Kong stocks. Additionally, a rebound in U.S. tech stocks provided some uplift to the Hong Kong technology sector [8]. - In the future, while the Hong Kong market may experience volatility due to external factors, the expected improvement in liquidity from the Fed's easing cycle will have a positive impact. Strong performance from the mainland economy and ongoing policy support, particularly in high-level opening-up, will provide a solid foundation for the Hong Kong market. Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors benefiting from Fed easing and mainland economic recovery, as well as technology sectors with growth potential amid the AI wave [8].

- The "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" model aims to construct a portfolio by dual-layer screening based on fundamental and technical aspects of stocks recommended by analysts. The analyst recommendation pool is built using events such as upward revisions of earnings forecasts, initial analyst coverage, and unexpected positive research report titles. Stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance are selected for the portfolio. The backtesting period is from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index [14][16][18] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor identifies stocks that have reached a 250-day high in the past 20 trading days. The screening process includes criteria such as analyst attention (at least five buy or overweight ratings in the past six months), relative stock strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), and stock price stability. Stability is measured using metrics like price path smoothness and the average 250-day high distance over the past 120 days. Stocks are ranked, and the top 50% are selected, with a minimum of 50 stocks [21][23][24] - The formula for calculating the "250-day high distance" is: $ 250\text{-day high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. A value of 0 indicates a new high, while positive values represent the degree of fallback from the high [23][24] - The backtesting results for the "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" model show annualized returns of 19.11%, excess returns of 18.48%, and various performance metrics such as IR of 1.22, tracking error of 14.55%, and maximum drawdown of 23.73% [20][16][18] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor identified stocks across sectors, with the highest number in the cyclical sector (7 stocks), followed by consumer (5 stocks), financial (3 stocks), manufacturing (3 stocks), technology (3 stocks), and healthcare (1 stock) [23][24][28]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market has reached a significant milestone with the listing of JD Industrial, marking the 100th new stock of the year, and the total fundraising amount has exceeded 2700.86 billion HKD, the highest globally for the year [3][4][5] - The market is experiencing a strong recovery, driven by large IPO projects, particularly from A-share companies, which have become a crucial force in boosting fundraising [3][4][5] - Despite the impressive fundraising figures, there are concerns regarding the quality of new listings, an increase in the rate of IPO failures, and a shortage of investment banking talent [8][9] Fundraising Performance - The total fundraising amount for the year has surpassed 2700.86 billion HKD, a significant increase from 64 new stocks last year [3][4] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is expected to lead global fundraising with an estimated 36 billion USD in 2025, significantly outpacing the New York Stock Exchange [3][5] - A-share companies have contributed to 51.35% of the total fundraising in the Hong Kong IPO market, with notable contributions from companies like CATL [4][5] Market Structure and Trends - The "new consumption + hard technology" sectors are identified as the main drivers of the current capital influx, with companies in these areas receiving substantial investor interest [6][7] - The healthcare sector has seen the highest number of new listings, with 24 companies, while the information technology sector ranks third with 18 new stocks [6] - The market is shifting towards a dual-driven model of domestic and foreign investment, indicating a structural evolution in investor composition [5][6] Future Outlook - The IPO market is expected to remain active in 2026, with a focus on "A+H" stock models and the return of Chinese concept stocks [7] - Regulatory support for technology companies is anticipated to continue, fostering a favorable environment for new listings in the tech sector [6][7] Challenges and Concerns - There has been a notable increase in the IPO failure rate, with 45.45% of new stocks failing on their first day in November [8][9] - Concerns have been raised regarding the quality of listing applications and the overall execution of the IPO process, leading to regulatory scrutiny [9] - A shortage of experienced investment banking professionals is impacting the quality of service and project handling in the IPO market [9]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a rebound on December 10, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.42% to close at 25,540.78 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.48% to 5,581.10 points [1] - The total market turnover was HKD 1,933.92 million, a decrease from HKD 2,102.36 million in the previous trading day [1] Stock Performance - Among the Hang Seng Index constituents, 43 stocks rose while 42 fell, with notable gainers including: - WH Group (万洲国际) up 5.01% to HKD 8.590, with a year-to-date increase of 65.77% [2] - Haidilao (海底捞) up 3.45% to HKD 14.100, with a year-to-date decrease of 6.10% [2] - CSPC Pharmaceutical (石药集团) up 3.19% to HKD 7.770, with a year-to-date increase of 67.18% [2] - Alibaba had a trading volume of HKD 93.22 million, rising by 1.52% [3] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Industry Index showed mixed results: - Materials sector increased by 1.47% - Consumer discretionary sector rose by 0.85% - Consumer staples sector grew by 0.66% - Industrial sector decreased by 0.84% - Healthcare sector fell by 0.64% [4] Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange confirmed a joint letter with the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to IPO sponsors regarding concerns over the quality of recent listing applications and non-compliance issues [5] - The exchange emphasized its commitment to ensuring timely and rigorous reviews of new listing applications to maintain high standards [5] Company-Specific News - Vanke Enterprises (万科企业) experienced a significant surge, with a maximum increase of 18.56% on December 10, closing at HKD 3.78 per share, a rise of 13.17% [6] - Vanke's bondholders meeting discussed the extension of its first bond, "22万科MTN004," and the company announced no adjustment to the interest rate of "21万科02," maintaining it at 3.98% [7][8] New Financial Products - A new actively managed ETF linked to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is set to launch on December 11, with a unit price of HKD 8.8 and a management fee of 0.99% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has confirmed a joint letter with the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to IPO sponsors regarding concerns over the declining quality of recent listing applications and non-compliance issues [8]. Market Performance - On December 10, the Hong Kong stock market saw a rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.42% to close at 25,540.78 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.48% to 5,581.10 points. The market turnover was HKD 1,933.92 billion, down from HKD 2,102.36 billion the previous trading day [2]. - Among the constituents of the Hang Seng Index, 43 stocks rose while 42 fell. Notable gainers included WH Group, which rose by 5.01%, Haidilao by 3.45%, and CSPC Pharmaceutical by 3.19% [3]. Individual Stock Highlights - WH Group (Code: 0288) closed at HKD 8.590, up 5.01% with a year-to-date increase of 65.77% [4]. - Haidilao (Code: 6862) closed at HKD 14.100, up 3.45%, but has seen a year-to-date decline of 6.10% [4]. - CSPC Pharmaceutical (Code: 1093) closed at HKD 7.770, up 3.19%, with a year-to-date increase of 67.18% [4]. - Alibaba (Code: 9988) had a turnover of HKD 93.22 billion, rising by 1.52% with a year-to-date increase of 89.04% [5]. Vanke Enterprises - Vanke Enterprises experienced a significant surge, with its stock price reaching a maximum increase of 18.56% on December 10, closing at HKD 3.78 per share, up 13.17% for the day [10]. - The company held a bondholders' meeting on December 10 to discuss the extension of its first bond, "22 Vanke MTN004." The company announced that it would not adjust the interest rate of "21 Vanke 02," maintaining it at 3.98% [12]. ETF Launch - The Southern Eastern UK Index Covered Call Option Active ETF is set to launch on December 11 on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. This ETF will primarily invest in the constituents of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and aims to generate income through option premiums [15]. Investment Opportunities - UBS Wealth Management highlighted that the Chinese technology sector represents one of the most significant global opportunities, driven by ample liquidity and expected corporate earnings growth of up to 37% in 2026 [16].

Core Insights - The report highlights the challenges faced by the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing fluctuations and closing down 72 points or 0.29% [2][3] - The report indicates a decrease in net inflow from the Northbound trading, with a net inflow of 1.603 billion HKD, down 58.1% from the previous day [2] - The report discusses the performance of various sectors, noting that 7 out of 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices rose, while 8 fell, with the healthcare, telecommunications, essential consumer goods, and conglomerates showing slight increases [3] Company Analysis - The report focuses on Li Ning (2331.HK), noting that the running and fitness categories are leading growth, while retail channels remain under pressure due to weak consumer spending [5][6] - For Q2, the company reported low single-digit growth in overall platform revenue, with offline channels experiencing a decline, while e-commerce channels showed mid-single-digit growth [5] - The report mentions a decrease in the number of stores, with a total of 6,099 stores as of June 30, reflecting a net decrease of 18 stores since the beginning of the year [6] - The report highlights the signing of a new basketball ambassador, which is expected to boost the basketball category's growth [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Li Ning's strategy of "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" will continue to evolve, with a target price of 19.2 HKD based on a 20x PE for 2025 [7]