今晚市场准备迎接今年的最后一份美国非农就业报告公布，预计就业人数再次大幅放缓，预计录得4万（9月份为11.9万），失业率预计维持在四年最高的 4.4%，平均每小时工资年率预计为3.6%。近期最新数据显示，就业市场增长势头减弱，许多雇主放缓了招聘步伐，部分雇主甚至裁员。 数据预期为何如此疲软？ 经济放缓迹象：近期多项数据（如JOLTS职位空缺、ADP私人就业、ISM制造业/服务业就业分项）均显示劳动力需求降温。 政府停摆的滞后影响：9月底至10月初的联邦政府停摆虽然短暂，但可能导致部分政府相关合同工招聘暂停或延迟，其影响可能在11月数据中体现。更重要 的是，停摆带来的不确定性可能动摇了企业对经济前景和财政稳定性的信心，从而在招聘上更加谨慎。 近期就业数据表现 美国11月民间就业岗位创逾两年半最大降幅，减少3.2万个，因小企业裁员，但近期政府数据显示裁员仍处低位，表明该数据显示的疲软状态可能并非劳动 力市场真实状况。经济学家也提醒不要过度解读ADP报告显示的就业岗位意外下降，称该月度估算与美国劳工部劳工统计局公布的民间就业数据存在偏差。 10月数据上修至增加4.7万个，由于美国10月非农取消公布，所以该数据也提供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the Middle East situation, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, has led to significant volatility in global markets, especially in oil and precious metals prices. Group 1: Conflict Overview - On June 13, Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, targeting multiple locations including energy facilities, which resulted in fires and explosions [1][3] - Iran retaliated with missile attacks on June 16, hitting key infrastructure in cities like Haifa and Tel Aviv, causing further damage [3] Group 2: Market Impact - The conflict has caused a dramatic increase in oil prices, with WTI crude oil surging over 14% on the day of the conflict, closing at $73.18 per barrel, marking the largest single-day increase since March 2022 [3] - Following the initial surge, WTI futures opened higher again on June 16, but the market showed signs of instability, with prices retracting before the close [3] Group 3: Supply and Price Projections - Analysts predict that if Iranian oil supply is disrupted, the global supply gap could reach 1.6 million barrels per day, potentially raising oil prices by $5 to $10 per barrel [4] - Morgan Stanley has revised its Q3 Brent crude oil price forecast to $67.50 per barrel, citing the conflict's impact on supply [4] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility due to geopolitical tensions, some analysts believe that the fundamental market dynamics will dictate long-term trends, with oil prices expected to stabilize above $60 per barrel in the coming years [5] - The ongoing geopolitical risks are seen as temporary shocks, with the underlying fundamentals remaining the primary drivers of market performance [5]