A H 股市场周度观察（1 月第 1 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 10 日 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（8 月第 1 周）》2025-08-04 分析师：徐驰 报告摘要 一、A 股： 【市场走势】本周 A 股市场整体表现强劲，成交活跃度显著提升。宽基指数中，中证 500、中证 1000 和中证 2000 涨幅居前，分别上涨 7.92%、7.03%和 6.54%，显示中 小盘股表现突出。风格指数方面，小盘成长领涨，上涨 6.96%。行业板块来看，国防 军工、传媒、有色金属和计算机等板块涨幅较大，其中国防军工和传媒均实现超 13% 的涨幅。市场日均成交额达到 2.85 万亿，环比大幅增长 35.68%。 二、港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 相关报告 1、《当前市场调整是大周期见顶还 【深入剖析】本周 A 股市场实现"开门红"，主要指数 ...

智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，以2025年12月31日为考察截止日的恒生综合指数半年度审议工作已 结束，港股通标的名单即将迎来新一轮调整。本次调整结果预计将于2月20日公布，自3月9日（周一）起正式生 效。根据港股通调整规则进行模拟测算，兴业证券预计这次调整中将有48只港股被纳入港股通标的范围。 截至2025年12月31日，港股通新纳入标的的市值准入门槛已提升至90亿港元。从行业分布维度来看，本次港股 通新纳入标的主要集中于医疗保健业、资讯科技业及非必需性消费行业，上述三大行业的纳入标的数量位居前 列。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 以2025年12月31日为考察截止日的恒生综合指数半年度审议工作已结束，港股通标的名单即将迎来新一轮调 整。本次调整结果预计将于2月20日公布，自3月9日（周一）起正式生效。根据港股通调整规则进行模拟测算， 我们预计这次调整中将有48只港股被纳入港股通标的范围。 工业（7家）：京东工业、果下科技、西锐、挚达科技、威胜控股、希迪智驾、津上机床中国 金融业（5家）：HASHKEY HLDGS、耀才证券金融、徽商银行、OSL集团、南华期货股份 原材料业（3家）：创新实业、佳鑫国际资 ...

Group 1: Global Stock Market Performance - The global stock indices in 2025 exhibited a clear "divergent upward" trend, with the South Korean Composite Index leading at 75.6% growth, significantly higher than other markets[4] - The second tier of performance was concentrated in Hong Kong and Northeast Asian markets, including the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225, with growth rates ranging from 23.0% to 31.1%[4] - European markets showed moderate performance, while global benchmarks and U.S. tech-related indices remained relatively strong[4] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Insights - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Industry Index displayed a "strong structure, weak diffusion" characteristic, with materials leading at 161.3% growth, while defensive sectors like utilities and telecommunications lagged[6] - In 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market welcomed 117 new listings, raising approximately HKD 285.7 billion, with notable first-day performance from Nobikang (2635.HK) at 363.75%[9] - The largest fundraising project was CATL (3750.HK), which raised around HKD 41 billion, while 685 companies announced additional share placements, expected to raise about HKD 361.8 billion, mainly in TMT and financial sectors[9] Group 3: U.S. Economic Overview - In Q3 2025, the U.S. GDP growth rate was 4.3%, exceeding expectations of 3.3%, driven by resilient private consumption and improved net exports[10] - Personal consumption expenditures contributed 2.4 percentage points to GDP growth, indicating strong consumer resilience despite tariff impacts[10] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted to April and July 2026, with anticipated reductions of 25 basis points each[10] Group 4: Chinese Economic Trends - Industrial profits in China showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% from January to November 2025, with notable growth in high-tech manufacturing sectors[11] - The solar and semiconductor industries are experiencing a new wave of growth, supported by policy adjustments and rising prices in key materials[11] - The government initiated a venture capital fund of HKD 100 billion to stimulate investment in high-tech sectors, including AI and quantum technology[11]

智通财经APP获悉，12月31日，恒生指数公司发表《2025年终市场总结报告》。2025年，以恒生指数(恒指)为代表的香港股票市场上升27.8%，为2017年以 来最佳表现。2024年录得17.7%升幅后，除3月底因贸易冲突而有所回落，恒指于2025年大部分时间均稳步向上。2025年升势由多个主要因素组成，包括港 股通创纪录的资金流入、对人工智能未来发展的憧憬，以及降息等。2025年，恒指表现跑赢另外两项旗舰指数—恒生中国企业指数(国指)及恒生科技指数(科 指)，两者分别上涨22.3%及23.5%。值得留意的是，追踪恒生生物科技指数的期货于11月推出，而该指数于2025年上升64.5%。 ESG指数方面，恒生气候变化1.5℃目标指数表现较佳，年度升幅为31.2%。 2025年，恒生综合指数(恒生综指)上涨31.0%。在恒生综指中，中型股上升31.6%，领先大型股(+30.8%)及小型股(+28.8%)。在恒生综指的行业指数中，原材 料业表现最佳，上升161.3%，公用事业则是表现最差的行业，录得5.7%升幅。 香港上市的主题指数方面，恒生港股通创新药指数及恒生医疗保健指数表现最佳，年度升幅分别为64.0%及5 ...

- The "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" strategy is constructed based on a dual-layer selection process that combines fundamental and technical analysis. The initial stock pool is built using analyst recommendation events, such as upward earnings revisions, first-time coverage, and unexpected positive research report titles. From this pool, stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance are selected to form the portfolio. The backtesting period is from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index after considering transaction costs in a fully invested state [14][16] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor is constructed to identify stocks that have recently reached a 250-day high and exhibit stable price paths. The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price, and $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. A value of 0 indicates a new high, while positive values indicate a decline from the peak. Stocks are further filtered based on analyst attention (at least five buy or overweight ratings in the past six months), relative strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), price stability (evaluated using price path smoothness and 250-day new high distance averages over 120 days), and trend continuation (average 250-day new high distance over the past five days). The top 50 stocks are selected based on these criteria [23][24] - The backtesting results for the "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" show an annualized return of 19.11%, an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index, and a maximum drawdown of 23.73% over the entire sample period. The information ratio (IR) is 1.22, with a tracking error of 14.55% and a return-to-drawdown ratio of 0.78 [20] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor identified stocks primarily in the cyclical sector (9 stocks), followed by financials (4 stocks), technology (3 stocks), manufacturing (3 stocks), and consumer sectors (3 stocks) during the recent period. Specific stocks include Global New Material International and others [23][24]

每经AI快讯，哈焊华通（SZ 301137，收盘价：54元）12月12日晚间发布公告称，公司第五届第四次董 事会会议于2025年12月12日在公司六楼会议室召开。会议审议了《关于修订 <董事会审计委员会议事规 则> 的议案》等文件。 2024年1至12月份，哈焊华通的营业收入构成为：原材料业占比99.29%，其他业务占比0.71%。 截至发稿，哈焊华通市值为98亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——实施城乡居民增收计划、降准降息等工具灵活高效运用、增加普通高中学 位……深度解读中央经济工作会议 （记者 曾健辉） ...

美联储在北京时间9月18日凌晨做出的降息决定，是一场被市场充分预演了的"大戏"。联邦基金利率目标区间从4.25?.5%下调至4.0?.25%。美联储主席鲍威尔 在会后坦言，这是一次"风险管理型"降息，他们的注意力"全部集中在就业市场上"。 这意味着，美国货币政策的重心正在从过去两年猛踩刹车的"抗通胀"，转向谨慎地轻点油门的"防衰退"。 消息落地后，全球市场的反应并不是一片欢腾，反而有点"利好出尽是利空"的味道。美股三大指数涨跌互现，道指微涨，纳指却小幅收跌。美元指数玩了个 先跌后涨，国际金价也冲高回落。 这种波动恰恰暴露了市场的分歧：投资者一方面欢迎降息带来的流动性，另一方面又担忧鲍威尔"无需迅速调整利率"的谨慎表态，是否意味着未来的降息步 伐会非常缓慢。 对于中国而言，这场来自外部的变化，机遇远大于挑战。最立竿见影的效果体现在汇率上。美联储降息缩小了中美之间的利差，人民币对美元的贬值压力显 著减轻。 在降息前夕，离岸人民币兑美元汇率就已升破7.1关口，创下去年11月以来的新高。人民币企稳升值，相当于给中国的进口企业发了个"成本下降"红包，特 别是能源、原材料进口企业的利润空间会得到改善。 中国人民银行的货币 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices showed a mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.87%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.75%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index up by 1.13% during the week of December 1 to December 5, 2025 [4][9] - The Hang Seng Index's current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is 11.87, which is around the 70th percentile since January 1, 2007, while the Price-to-Book (PB) ratio stands at 1.28, approximately at the 58th percentile during the same period [6][11] Key Economic Indicators - The U.S. PCE price index increased by 0.3% month-on-month in September, with the core PCE price index rising by 0.2%, aligning with expectations [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 86.2%, which is expected to positively impact liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, price-increasing chemical products, and AI infrastructure due to favorable market conditions [4] Capital Flow Analysis - Net inflow of southbound funds amounted to HKD 11.349 billion last week, a decrease of HKD 8.491 billion compared to the previous week [6][13] - The top five net purchases by southbound funds included Xiaomi Group (HKD 4.596 billion), Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (HKD 2.606 billion), Meituan (HKD 2.100 billion), ZTE Corporation (HKD 0.641 billion), and Li Auto (HKD 0.392 billion) [6][17] - The top five net sales were Tencent Holdings (HKD 3.811 billion), SMIC (HKD 1.376 billion), ASMPT (HKD 0.439 billion), Kuaishou Technology (HKD 0.285 billion), and China Pacific Insurance (HKD 0.129 billion) [6][17]

Core Insights - In November, Beijing's industrial producer prices decreased by 1.3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while the purchasing prices fell by 1.7% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month [1][2] Group 1: Year-on-Year Analysis - Among the 34 industrial sectors surveyed, 11 sectors saw an increase in producer prices, 20 sectors experienced a decline, and 3 sectors remained unchanged [1] - The producer prices for production materials decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with processing materials down by 0.8% and raw materials down by 0.1%, while extraction materials increased by 0.7% [1] - The producer prices for living materials fell by 3.2% year-on-year, with durable consumer goods down by 5.8%, food down by 1.6%, and clothing down by 1.3%, while general daily necessities increased by 3.0% [1] - In the purchasing prices, agricultural and sideline products dropped by 11.1%, black metal materials decreased by 6.2%, and construction materials and non-metallic products fell by 4.5% [1] Group 2: Month-on-Month Analysis - In November, 15 sectors reported an increase in producer prices month-on-month, while 11 sectors saw a decrease and 8 sectors remained stable [2] - The producer prices for production materials increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with extraction materials up by 2.8% and processing materials up by 0.3%, while raw materials decreased by 0.1% [2] - The producer prices for living materials decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, with durable consumer goods down by 1.6% and clothing down by 0.1%, while food prices increased by 0.3% [2] - In purchasing prices, chemical raw materials fell by 0.8%, while both black metal materials and agricultural products decreased by 0.6% [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a rebound on December 10, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.42% to close at 25,540.78 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.48% to 5,581.10 points [1] - The total market turnover was HKD 1,933.92 million, a decrease from HKD 2,102.36 million in the previous trading day [1] Stock Performance - Among the Hang Seng Index constituents, 43 stocks rose while 42 fell, with notable gainers including: - WH Group (万洲国际) up 5.01% to HKD 8.590, with a year-to-date increase of 65.77% [2] - Haidilao (海底捞) up 3.45% to HKD 14.100, with a year-to-date decrease of 6.10% [2] - CSPC Pharmaceutical (石药集团) up 3.19% to HKD 7.770, with a year-to-date increase of 67.18% [2] - Alibaba had a trading volume of HKD 93.22 million, rising by 1.52% [3] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Industry Index showed mixed results: - Materials sector increased by 1.47% - Consumer discretionary sector rose by 0.85% - Consumer staples sector grew by 0.66% - Industrial sector decreased by 0.84% - Healthcare sector fell by 0.64% [4] Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange confirmed a joint letter with the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to IPO sponsors regarding concerns over the quality of recent listing applications and non-compliance issues [5] - The exchange emphasized its commitment to ensuring timely and rigorous reviews of new listing applications to maintain high standards [5] Company-Specific News - Vanke Enterprises (万科企业) experienced a significant surge, with a maximum increase of 18.56% on December 10, closing at HKD 3.78 per share, a rise of 13.17% [6] - Vanke's bondholders meeting discussed the extension of its first bond, "22万科MTN004," and the company announced no adjustment to the interest rate of "21万科02," maintaining it at 3.98% [7][8] New Financial Products - A new actively managed ETF linked to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is set to launch on December 11, with a unit price of HKD 8.8 and a management fee of 0.99% [12]