1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The global soybean supply remains in a loose pattern, and the demand outlook for US soybeans is unclear, causing the US soybean futures price to decline. The domestic soybean meal price is supported by the cost but restricted by weak demand. In the first quarter, the domestic soybean import volume decreases quarterly, and the supply pressure will ease. The near - term market needs to focus on the loading rhythm of US and Brazilian soybeans and the post - festival auction of imported soybeans. In the long - term, due to the bumper harvest of South American soybeans, the domestic price is expected to decline following the imported cost [2]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit a biofuel blending quota proposal for 2026 to the White House, which is expected to boost soybean oil demand. The production of Malaysian palm oil in February is estimated to decrease by 16.24%, and the export volume is expected to decline. Although the export slows down in February, due to seasonal production cuts, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in February is expected to continue to decline. The spill - over effect of the sharp rise in crude oil still exists, but the sentiment brought by recent geopolitical conflicts has cooled down, and the fundamentals of the oil and fat market lack the driving force for active upward movement. It is expected that the oil and fat market will fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8370, 9002, 9486, 2829, 2363, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were 20, 8, 22, - 7, - 17, and 26, with percentage changes of 0.24%, 0.09%, - 3.15%, - 0.25%, - 0.71%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09, M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, and Y - M09 are 18, 32, - 178, - 682, 857, 175, - 58, 46, 587, 1.25, 2.82, and 5366 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4070 (ringgit/ton), 1166 (cents/bushel), 63.47 (cents/pound), and 309 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were 19.0, - 5.3, 0.6, and - 5.8, with percentage changes of 0.47%, - 0.45%, 0.89%, and - 1.84% respectively [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil, Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal, Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal, Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 8650, 8630, 9000, 9000, 10110, 9860, 2990, 3050, 2510, 2480, 7200, 7300 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis values of the above - mentioned products are 280, 260, - 70, - 70, 621, 371, 147, 207, 192, 162, - 696, - 596 respectively. The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal are - 170, 1470, 580 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profit - The current values of import and crushing profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 238, - 427, - 17, - 325, 246, 233 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 26,255, 0, 625, 38,829, 1,411, 900 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange indicates that last week's rainfall improved the growth conditions of Argentine soybeans and corn. The exchange expects the 2025/26 soybean production to be 48.5 million tons. Reuters' analysts predict that the 2025/26 Argentine soybean production will be 48.11 million tons, with an estimated range of 47 - 49.5 million tons [2]. - AgRural lowers the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production from 181 million tons to 178 million tons. As of February 28, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate is 41.7%, slower than 48.4% in the same period last year [2].

近期美联储政策预期转向，美元指数阶段性止跌反弹，以美元计价的大宗商品价格承压；此外，美伊关 系出现缓和信号，地缘风险溢价快速消退，避险情绪下降；叠加前期涨幅过大、供需失衡等因素，商品 价格连续大跌，市场恐慌情绪升温。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：博亚和讯） 近期，受多重利空消息影响，豆粕期货价格连跌三日，主力合约2605价格低点跌至2721元/吨，累计下 跌88元/吨，豆粕现货价格弱势下跌，豆粕现货价格低点3020元/吨，累计下跌80元/吨。 图1：豆粕期货2605合约走势 一、大宗商品炒作退潮，市场恐慌情绪升温 Celeres表示，巴西大豆产量预计将达到创纪录的1.813亿吨，高于此前预估的1.772亿吨，相当于较上一 年度增加5%。 综上所述，随着商品炒作退潮，市场交易再回基本面主导，在全球大豆供应宽松背景下，国内豆粕供应 紧张预期迟迟未能兑现，节前备货接近尾声后…… 二、巴西大豆收割快速推进，产量预估不断上调 会议聚焦 近期天气有利于收割，巴西大豆收割进度快速推进，早期收割大豆单产表现较好，分析机构不断上调巴 西大豆产量，巴西大豆产量有望再创纪录新高，丰产压力不断兑现，全球大豆价格继续承压。 中国氨基酸与饲 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆期价小幅收涨，宏观利好被南美大豆产量上调预期抵消，多家机构近期纷纷上调巴西 大豆产量预估，市场对全球大豆供应宽松的担忧加剧；同时，美豆出口缺乏持续买盘提振，短期反弹 空间受限。国内现货价格承压回落。当前国内豆粕库存高企，贸易商在高库存压力下采取滚动补库策 略，饲料厂则多维持安全库存，按需采购，整体成交氛围清淡。短期豆粕延续弱势格局，关注后续南 美天气变化及国内油厂开机节奏对库存的影响。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短 ...