| | 1、布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所表示，上周的降雨改善了阿根廷大豆和玉米生长状况，目前作物正 | | --- | --- | | | 处于南半球夏季高需水量的关键时期。该交易所预计，2025/26年度大豆产量料为4850万吨。2、 | | 行业 | 路透公布对USDA 3月供需报告中阿根廷与巴西2025/26年度作物产量的数据预测，分析师平均预 | | 信息 | 计，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆产量为4811万吨，预估区间介于4700-4950万吨。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡收涨。AgRural将25/26年度巴西大豆产量预估值由此前的1.81亿吨下调 | | | 至1.78亿吨；近期巴西大豆出口也有所偏慢，CONAB数据显示截至2月28日巴西大豆收割率为 | | | 41.7%，上周为31.9%，慢于去年同期的48.4%，但受制于全球大豆供应宽松格局延续以及美豆需求 | | | 前景不明。美豆期价有所回落。国内方面，连粕受到成本端的支撑但由于需求疲软制约价格。一 | | | 季度国内大豆进口量环比下降，供应压力将有所缓解，近月仍需关注美国和巴西大豆的装船节奏 | | | 和节后进口大豆拍卖情况。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere finishes the sugar - crushing season in February. The downward space of domestic sugar prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. - For cotton, in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates widely at a high level. In the long - term, due to the reduction of planting area and positive macro - expectations, cotton prices have room to rise. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [6][9]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of 2024/25. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and protein meal prices may be bottoming out [12][13]. - For oils, in the short - term, oil prices have fallen from high levels. In the long - term, the bottom of oil prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then try to go long [15][19]. - For eggs, the spot price is about to realize seasonal price increases, which will drive the futures price down. The near - term contracts may fluctuate weakly, and the far - end contracts may continue to correct their valuations, maintaining a short - selling idea [20][21]. - For pigs, the current supply is large, and the spot and near - term expectations are pessimistic. The near - term contracts may still be under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. The long - term contracts may have support after following the decline [23][24]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the May contract was 5210 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 0.83% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5260 - 5340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: StoneX expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 million tons in the 2025/26 season. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's total sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China produced 2.63 million tons of sugar, and the cumulative production in the 2025/26 season was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons. The cumulative sales volume was 1.57 million tons, and the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 16,002 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons. Among them, the export to China was 8800 tons that week, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons. The January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year [6]. Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the protein meal futures price fell slightly. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2623 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2247 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Dongguan soybean meal was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spot price of Huangpu rapeseed meal was 2460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [11]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: From January 15 to January 22, the US exported 820,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative export was 33.85 million tons. Among them, the export to China was 230,000 tons that week, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 9.65 million tons. From January 23 to January 30, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week. The sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The January forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous year [12]. Oils - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the oils futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8140 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 9138 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 9243 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 0.3% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Zhangjiagang first - grade soybean oil was 8670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9180 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,040 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: From January 23 to January 30, the domestic sample data showed that the inventory of the three major oils decreased slightly by 60,000 tons to 1.89 million tons. The January forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons from the previous year. In December, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from November [16][18]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, most egg prices in China declined, and a few remained stable. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.07 yuan to 3.56 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 3.3 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao dropped 0.24 yuan to 3 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the market digestion was gentle, and the terminal caution increased. It is expected that most egg prices in China may decline in the short - term, and a few areas may remain stable [20]. Pigs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, domestic pig prices generally declined with a large margin. The average price in Henan dropped 0.32 yuan to 12.22 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.09 yuan to 11.77 yuan/kg. The trading volume of the breeding side was limited, most of them did not complete the daily slaughter plan, and the price - cutting sentiment was strong. In addition, the incremental space of the downstream slaughter side was limited. It is expected that pig prices may continue to decline today [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Supported by favorable factors, the price of the three major oils and fats remained stable in the previous trading session [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,944 yuan/ton, a change of +112 yuan or +1.27%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,084 yuan/ton, a change of +40 yuan or +0.50%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,002 yuan/ton, a change of +55 yuan or +0.61% [2] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,900 yuan/ton, a change of +90 yuan or +1.02%, with a spot basis of P05 - 44 yuan, a change of -22 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,440 yuan/ton, a change of +50 yuan/ton or +0.60%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 356 yuan, a change of +10 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,840 yuan/ton, a change of +60 yuan or +0.61%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 838 yuan, a change of +5 yuan [2] 3.2 Market Information Summary - Argentina soybean oil: The C&F price of the February shipment was 1,209 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of the April shipment was 1,141 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 14 US dollars/ton [3] - Imported rapeseed oil: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil for the February shipment was 1,030 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price for the April shipment was 1,010 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - Canadian rapeseed: The C&F price of the March shipment was 528 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of the May shipment was 537 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - Soybean: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans for the February shipment was 477 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans for the February shipment was 472 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans for the February shipment was 450 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton [3] - Imported soybean premium: The premium for the February shipment from the Mexican Gulf was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged; the premium for the February shipment from the US West Coast was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged; the premium for the February shipment from Brazilian ports was 160 cents/bushel, a decrease of 5 cents/bushel [3] 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - From January 1 - 20, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.49% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08%, and the output decreased by 16.06% [4] - The Trump administration plans to finalize the US biofuel blending quota for 2026 in early March, expected to maintain at a high level and abandon punitive import measures, significantly boosting the demand for US soybean oil [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean meal closed slightly higher, while rapeseed meal closed lower in a volatile manner. Brazil's soybean harvest rate has increased, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest, and institutions are raising their production forecasts. However, good domestic crushing data in the US provides some support for soybean prices. In China, state - reserve auctions have been successful, and high domestic soybean meal inventories and the expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest will continue to pressure prices. The easing of China - Canada trade relations may increase rapeseed imports and put short - term pressure on domestic rapeseed prices [3]. - Oils: Night trading of oils was relatively strong. Malaysia's palm oil exports in January were strong with a decline in production, and a tariff cut is expected to improve future exports, supporting palm oil futures prices. There is positive news for US soybean oil demand due to biofuel policy expectations. However, the expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply due to the China - Canada economic and trade agreement has weakened rapeseed oil prices recently, also limiting the short - term prices of soybean and palm oils [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7996, 8648, and 8902 respectively, with changes of - 20, - 26, and - 161, and percentage changes of - 0.25%, - 0.30%, and - 3.15%. The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut were 2727, 2327, and 8844, with changes of 0, - 133, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.00%, - 5.41%, and 0.29% [2]. - Spreads: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are - 364, 62, and - 746 respectively, with previous values of - 390, - 26, and - 627 [2]. - Ratios - Spreads: The current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, and Y - M09 are - 238, 2394, 492, 1.21, 2.72, and 4978 respectively, with previous values of - 179, 2419, 457, 1.19, 2.73, and 4962 [2]. International Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4027 (ringgit/ton), 1056.25 (cents/bu), 52.51 (cents/lb), and 289.90 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of 77.0, 3.8, - 0.4, and 0.7, and percentage changes of 1.95%, 0.36%, - 0.76%, and 0.24% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - Prices: The current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8570 and 8620 respectively, with a percentage change of 0.47%. The prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8800, with a percentage change of 1.15%. The prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9810 and 9880, with percentage changes of 0.31% and 0.51% [2]. - Basis: The current spot basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 538, 52, and 862 respectively. The basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut are 344, 101, and - 756 respectively [2]. - Spreads: The current spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, and Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal are - 150, 1210, and 650 respectively [2]. Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 237, - 247, - 54, - 201, 321, and 414 respectively, with previous values of - 342, - 264, - 71, - 217, 270, and 387 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut are 26,985, 1,148, 1,935, 32,440, 84, and 0 respectively, with previous values of 27,485, 1,148, 1,942, 32,440, 84, and 0 [2]. Industry Information - Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased by 8.64% (AmSpec data) and 11.4% (ITS data) compared to the same period last month [3]. - As of the week ending January 15, 2026, the US shipped 611,983 tons of soybeans to China, accounting for 45.78% of the total export inspection volume of the week, down from 58.91% the previous week [3]. - As of January 17, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 2.3%, up from 0.6% last week, compared to 1.2% last year and a five - year average of 3.2% [3]. - The NOPA data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest monthly record [3]. - Canada and China have reached a preliminary trade agreement to reduce tariff barriers in the electric vehicle and rapeseed sectors [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere starts to finish sugar extraction in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, international sugar prices may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [4] - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. However, due to the recent sharp increase, it needs time to adjust. It is recommended to wait for a correction before going long [9] - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of 2024/2025. China's increased purchase of US soybeans supports CBOT soybean prices but is bearish for domestic meal prices. The possible reduction of the import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed is also a significant negative factor. Protein meal prices have fallen to previous lows, and short - term volatility will increase [12] - For oils, the current fundamentals of palm oil are weak due to high production, low exports, and high inventories in major producing areas, and high domestic inventories. But in the long - term, with the expected reduction of production in Malaysia, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in US biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026, the outlook is optimistic. It is advisable to wait and see for now [18] - For eggs, due to insufficient inventory accumulation under previous pessimistic sentiment, the spot price increase during the pre - holiday stocking period exceeded expectations, driving the short - term contract to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the spot price is about to reach its seasonal peak. The short - term contract may fluctuate with limited upside and downside. The long - term contract has positive expectations but with uncertain implementation paths [21] - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect have stimulated consumption, and the large price difference between fat and standard pigs has led to hoarding. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has risen significantly, driving the futures price to rebound rationally. In the short - term, the structural contradiction remains unresolved, and the spot price has limited downward momentum, supporting the short - term contract to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - term, the large supply base and the risk of inventory accumulation may still put pressure on prices [24] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract was 5,188 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton or 1.16% from the previous trading day. The price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was quoted at 5,290 - 5,360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - **Industry Data**: In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%. As of December, India's sugar production reached 1.5909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared to the same period last year [3] Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,525 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,856 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6] - **Industry Data**: In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but an 8.6 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year [6] Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2,736 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2,229 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day [10] - **Industry Data**: In 2025, China's total soybean imports were 111.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The supply from Brazil was 82.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. The supply from the US was 16.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24% [11] Oils - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the oils futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8,032 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8,748 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton or 1.16% from the previous trading day [14] - **Industry Data**: As of the week of January 16, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons [15][17] Eggs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, most egg prices in China were stable, with a few rising or falling. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 3.65 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 3.4 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 3.4 yuan/jin. The price in Dongguan rose 0.06 yuan to 3.51 yuan/jin [20] - **Industry Outlook**: The supply is basically normal, the downstream sales speed is acceptable, and most traders' confidence in the future market has slightly recovered. The inventory at each link has slightly increased, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is stable. It is expected that most egg prices in China will be stable today, with a few rising or falling [20] Pigs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, domestic pig prices generally fell, with some areas remaining stable. The average price in Henan dropped 0.18 yuan to 13.35 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained at 13.02 yuan/kg [23] - **Industry Outlook**: Currently, the enthusiasm of farmers to sell pigs is high, but the downstream demand support is insufficient, and the market sales are poor. Farmers may have an intention to reduce prices, and pig prices are expected to decline today [23]

Report Information - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The trends of the three major oils are diverging. Due to the easing of China - Canada trade relations, the supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the far - month is expected to increase, causing the prices of Zhengzhou rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal to fall. The expected release of the US biofuel blending quota has boosted the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. For palm oil, attention should be paid to the upcoming export data for the first 20 days of January. In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - P2605: The previous settlement price was 8618, the opening price was 8660, the highest price was 8684, the lowest price was 8606, the closing price was 8648, with a rise of 30 and a rise rate of 0.35%. The trading volume was 358548, and the open interest was 413122, a decrease of 1951 [7] - P2609: The previous settlement price was 8608, the opening price was 8632, the highest price was 8662, the lowest price was 8592, the closing price was 8622, with a rise of 14 and a rise rate of 0.16%. The trading volume was 19126, and the open interest was 66014, a decrease of 40 [7] - Y2605: The previous settlement price was 7978, the opening price was 8014, the highest price was 8024, the lowest price was 7964, the closing price was 7996, with a rise of 18 and a rise rate of 0.23%. The trading volume was 209449, and the open interest was 716725, an increase of 584 [7] - Y2609: The previous settlement price was 7852, the opening price was 7866, the highest price was 7902, the lowest price was 7842, the closing price was 7876, with a rise of 24 and a rise rate of 0.31%. The trading volume was 22233, and the open interest was 107080, an increase of 3032 [7] - OI605: The previous settlement price was 9038, the opening price was 8861, the highest price was 8978, the lowest price was 8860, the closing price was 8902, with a fall of 136 and a fall rate of 1.50%. The trading volume was 367634, and the open interest was 253596, a decrease of 16032 [7] - OI609: The previous settlement price was 9004, the opening price was 8833, the highest price was 8947, the lowest price was 8827, the closing price was 8923, with a fall of 81 and a fall rate of 0.90%. The trading volume was 13371, and the open interest was 12649, an increase of 2915 [7] - **Spot Quotations**: - East China rapeseed oil traders' quotations: For East China March - transferred triple - pressed rapeseed oil, it is 05 + 720. For genetically - modified first - grade rapeseed oil in the East China spot market, it is 05 + 1300, and triple - pressed rapeseed oil is 05 + 650 from March to May in East China, 05 + 600 from April to May in East China [7] - East China market first - grade soybean oil basis price: For first - grade soybean oil, the spot price is Y05 + 520; from February to March it is Y2605+480; from February to May it is Y2605+400; from March to May it is Y2605+360; from April to May it is Y2605+300; from May to July it is Y2605+240; from June to September it is Y2605+190; from July to September it is Y2605+200. For third - grade soybean oil, it is 05 + 450, and for degummed soybean oil, it is 05 + 350 [7] - Dongguan traders' palm oil quotations: For 18 - degree palm oil from Guangzhou Yihai, it is 05 + 170; for 24 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan, it is 05 + 0; for national - standard 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, it is 05 + 50; for 52 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan, it is 05 - 200; for 33 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan, it is 05 + 20 [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the purchase of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal, the release of the US biofuel blending quota, and the January 1 - 20 palm oil export data. Adopt the arbitrage strategy of going long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] 3.2 Industry News - From January 1 - 15, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 18.42% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 18.09% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.03% month - on - month. The palm oil export volume from January 1 - 15 was 435,882 tons, the same as that from December 1 - 15. The export volume to China was 17,000 tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons compared to 58,000 tons in the same period last month [10][11] 3.3 Data Overview - **Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast**: Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 179.28 million tons, 520,000 tons higher than the November forecast. If the prediction comes true, it will increase by 4.3% year - on - year and set a new record. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year to 48.33 million hectares, and the average yield per unit area will be 3,728 kg per hectare, a 2.8% increase compared to the 2024/25 season [16] - **Domestic Palm Oil Inventory**: As of the end of the third week of 2026, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 677,600 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons compared to last week; the contract volume was 39,200 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons compared to last week. The inventory of 24 - degree and below palm oil was 653,800 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons compared to last week, and the high - grade palm oil inventory was 23,800 tons, the same as last week [16]

1. Report Recommendation - The report recommends short - term waiting and observing in the trading strategy, suggesting waiting for inventory digestion [11][13] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental situation of the oil market is weak, with high production and low exports in major palm oil - producing areas leading to high inventories, and domestic inventories of three major oils also at a relatively high level. However, looking forward, there are optimistic expectations such as the downward adjustment of Malaysia's production forecast, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in U.S. biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026 [11] - Oil prices may be approaching the bottom range [12] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, and Indonesia has cancelled the B50 plan. In January, the estimated consumption of U.S. soybean oil decreased compared to December, while India's vegetable oil imports in December increased. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December increased, production decreased, and exports increased. Malaysia's 2026 palm oil production is expected to be lower than in 2025, and its production in January 2026 decreased. As of January 9, domestic inventories of three major oils decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year [11] - **Viewpoint Summary**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but there are optimistic long - term expectations, so short - term waiting and observing are recommended [11] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is neutral to low, the biodiesel spread and inventory are neutral, the import profit is negative, the high production and inventory in major producing countries are negative, and other factors are neutral. Oil prices may be near the bottom [12] - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies recommend waiting and observing [13] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - The document presents multiple charts showing the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil contracts, and the monthly spread of various oil contracts from 2022 - 2026 [22][23][26][28][30] 3.3. Supply Side - The document shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil from 2021 - 2025, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans from 2022 - 2026, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil from 2021 - 2025 [34][36][37][38] 3.4. Profit and Inventory - The document presents charts of the total inventory of three major domestic oils from 2022 - 2026, India's imported vegetable oil inventory from 2021 - 2025, the near - month import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil from 2022 - 2026, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil plants from 2022 - 2026, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil from 2022 - 2026, and the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil from 2021 - 2025 [42][44][46][48][50] 3.5. Cost Side - The document shows charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil from 2022 - 2026, as well as the near - month shipping price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed from 2022 - 2026 [53][56] 3.6. Demand Side - The document presents charts of the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil from 2022 - 2026, and the spread between palm oil and diesel, and soybean oil and heating oil from 2022 - 2026 [61][64]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending mandate in early March, maintaining previous target levels while eliminating punitive measures on imported renewable fuels and their feedstocks [2] Group 1: Biofuel Industry - The proposed plan aims to create a compromise between biofuel producers and the oil industry by retaining the option to increase biofuel blending ratios in response to demands from the agriculture and biofuel sectors [2] - The elimination of restrictions on imported fuels is intended to prevent market disruptions and rising energy costs [2] Group 2: Regulatory Process - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is currently in the public comment phase regarding the new rules, with the goal of finalizing them by the first quarter of 2026 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of the three major oils showed a divergent trend. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term with a possible inventory inflection point, and may rise in the medium - to - long - term due to seasonal production cuts and improved fundamentals. - Soybean oil has a loose global supply, but domestic inventory is being depleted due to pre - Spring Festival stocking. Attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation. - Rapeseed oil is restricted by a relatively loose supply - demand pattern in Canada. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the impact of Canada's Prime Minister's visit to China. In the medium - to - long - term, the Sino - Canadian trade relationship will determine the price trend [28]. 3. Summary of Different Sections 3.1 Spot Price Trends - From January 9 to January 16, 2026, the futures closing price of palm oil's main contract decreased by 0.09% from 8682 to 8674, and the spot price decreased by 0.23% from 8600 to 8580. - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil's main contract increased by 0.23% from 9042 to 9063, while the spot price decreased by 1.37% from 9942 to 9806. - The futures closing price of soybean oil's main contract increased by 0.28% from 7994 to 8016, and the spot price increased by 0.67% from 8308 to 8364 [4]. 3.2 Basis Changes - As of January 15, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 426 yuan/ton (an increase of 62 yuan/ton from the previous week), 978 yuan/ton (an increase of 72 yuan/ton), and 2 yuan/ton (an increase of 14 yuan/ton) respectively. - As of January 16, 2026, the YP spread was - 658 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Inventory Trends - As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas was 0.2 million tons (a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 73.60 million tons (an increase of 0.22 million tons), the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 102.51 million tons (a decrease of 5.59 million tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 176.31 million tons (a decrease of 5.47 million tons) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis - **Palm Oil**: As of January 16, 2026, the gross profit of 24 - degree palm oil against the market was - 191 yuan/ton (a decrease of 67 yuan/ton from the previous week). As of December 2025, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 3.05 million tons, and the production in the first half of January 2026 decreased by 18.24% [13]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of soybeans in national ports was 8.028 billion tons (a decrease of 20.8 million tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybeans in major oil mills was 7.1312 billion tons (an increase of 2.87 million tons), and the oil mill operating rate was 53% (an increase of 3% from the previous week). As of January 16, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 481.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10.7 yuan/ton from the previous week) [16]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the total inventory of rapeseeds in oil mills was 0.1 million tons (unchanged from the previous week). As of January 16, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2218.0 yuan/ton (a decrease of 61.0 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 1300 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 2500 tons, and the POGO spread was 403.99 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 1.25 US dollars/ton from the previous week). - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [25]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: The Trump administration plans to finalize the biofuel blending quota in early March and abandon the import penalty plan. The Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade negotiation is advancing, and the market is concerned about the progress of tariff relaxation. - **Foreign Factors**: The US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report shows that the US's 2025/26 soybean production forecast is 4.262 billion bushels, and the export forecast is 1.575 billion bushels. As of December, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 3.05 million tons, and the production in the first half of January decreased by 18.24%, while exports increased by 17.5% - 18.6%. - **Import and Pressing**: The oil mill operating rate increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The inventory of rapeseeds in oil mills remained unchanged. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased, and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills decreased. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends, with palm oil and rapeseed oil prices falling and soybean oil prices rising [27].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on January 16 saw more declines than gains, with polysilicon and rapeseed oil leading the gains, both rising over 2% [1] - The carbon lithium main contract hit the daily limit down, falling by 8.99%, while other commodities like shipping, tin, and nickel also experienced significant declines [1][5] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1668.57 points, down 15.53 points or 0.92% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon showed signs of stabilization on January 16, with the main contract rising by 2.5% after a week of corrections, driven by speculation about capacity control and production adjustments [2] - Concerns about production impacts due to a major company's planned shutdown until May have increased, alongside a firm pricing stance from polysilicon producers [2] - Despite the rebound, analysts caution that high inventory levels and strict industry regulations may limit the sustainability of this upward trend [2] Group 3: Oilseed Market - The oilseed sector saw a general increase, led by rapeseed oil with a 2.07% rise, attributed to low domestic rapeseed inventory and strong reactions to rising overseas oil prices [3] - U.S. biodiesel policy developments are expected to boost soybean oil consumption, contributing to price recoveries in both domestic and international markets [3] - However, analysts note that potential policy factors and mixed market influences may hinder the formation of a clear trend in the oilseed market [3] Group 4: Other Commodities - Glass and steel prices continued to rise moderately, with glass increasing by 1.29% while rebar saw only a slight increase of 0.06% [4] - The basic metals market experienced a broad retreat, with lithium carbonate hitting the limit down and falling by 8.99%, influenced by rapid price increases and profit-taking [5][6] - The shipping sector faced downward pressure, with the main contract for the European shipping line dropping by 8.52% due to seasonal trends and reduced demand ahead of the Chinese New Year [6][8]