荷兰国际：对欧元走强的担忧似乎过头了 金十数据7月3日讯，荷兰国际集团分析师Chris Turner在一份报告中说，欧元走强对欧元区经济有利， 尽管外界猜测欧洲央行官员越来越担心欧元升值。这些担忧是，欧元走强会降低进口价格，降低通胀， 同时使欧元区出口产品更加昂贵。然而，欧元区应该利用这个"全球欧元时刻"，正如欧洲央行行长此前 所称赞的那样。将全球投资组合重新配置到欧元区"只会对私人部门的借贷成本有利"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, emphasized that this is a pivotal moment for the euro on a global scale [1] Group 1 - Lagarde highlighted the importance of the euro in the context of global finance, suggesting that it is gaining prominence [1] - The statement reflects the ECB's commitment to strengthening the euro's position internationally [1] - This moment is seen as an opportunity for the euro to enhance its role in global trade and finance [1]

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that the euro could become a viable alternative to the US dollar if governments strengthen the financial and security architecture of the G20, which would bring significant benefits to the group [1][2] Group 1: Euro's Potential as an Alternative Currency - Lagarde emphasized that the euro's influence will not be automatic; it must be earned through deeper and more liquid capital markets, a stronger legal foundation, and a commitment to open trade [1] - The dollar's share of international reserves has been declining, currently at 58%, the lowest in decades, while the euro stands at 20% [1] Group 2: Necessary Conditions for Euro's Growth - To enhance the euro's role, Europe must also bolster its military strength to provide geopolitical assurances to investors, particularly official investors [2] - The euro should become the preferred currency for international trade invoicing, achievable through new trade agreements, improved cross-border payments, and liquidity agreements with the European Central Bank [2] - Reforming the domestic economy is urgent, as the eurozone's capital markets remain fragmented and inefficient, lacking truly liquid and widely available safe assets [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the imminent rise of the Euro as a global currency, contrasting it with the declining dominance of the US dollar, largely attributed to the erratic policies of former President Trump [1][3][6]. Group 1: Euro's Rise - The Euro has reached a near eight-year high against the US dollar, surpassing the 1.14 mark, with a cumulative increase of over 9% [1]. - The Eurozone is experiencing a strategic opportunity as the dollar's credibility diminishes, allowing the Euro to potentially take on a more significant role in the global financial system [6][8]. - The European Free Trade Association has signed 31 agreements covering 75 countries, with an annual trade volume exceeding 2 trillion Euros, establishing the Euro as a stable currency for trade [6]. Group 2: Dollar's Decline - The US dollar index has dropped by 9% since January 20, marking the worst performance for a new president in the first hundred days since 1973 [3]. - The US national debt has surged from $27.7 trillion in 2020 to $36 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, consuming nearly one-fifth of federal revenue [4]. - Trump's political interference with the Federal Reserve has undermined the dollar's institutional credibility, leading to a loss of its status as a global safe-haven asset [3][4]. Group 3: Global Shift in Currency Preferences - International capital flows are increasingly favoring the Euro, with European equity funds seeing a net inflow of $34.7 billion in the first quarter of 2025, compared to $19.8 billion for the US [8]. - The share of the dollar in global reserves has decreased from over 70% to 58%, while the Euro, Chinese Yuan, and gold are emerging as key alternatives [8]. - Countries like Russia, Iran, China, and Saudi Arabia are accelerating efforts to establish non-dollar payment systems, indicating a historical peak in the desire to "de-dollarize" the global economy [8].

Group 1 - International gold prices fell below the key psychological level of $3300 per ounce, currently reported at $3304.68 per ounce, with a decline of 1.13% [1] - The highest price reached was $3349.78 per ounce, while the lowest was $3292.38 per ounce during the trading session [1] Group 2 - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that if member governments strengthen the financial and security framework of the Eurozone, the euro could become a viable alternative to the dollar, benefiting the Eurozone significantly [2] - Lagarde emphasized the need for a deeper and more liquid capital market, stronger legal foundations, and military strength to support the euro's increased role [2] - Investors, particularly official ones, are seeking geopolitical guarantees and are inclined to invest in regions that are reliable security partners [2] Group 3 - Analyst Christian Borjon Valencia noted that the bullish trend for gold remains intact, with potential testing of last week's high of $3365 per ounce [3] - If gold prices break above $3365, the next targets would be $3400, followed by the May 7 high of $3438 and the historical high of $3500 per ounce [3] - On the bearish side, if gold prices fall below $3300, a decline to the May 20 low of $3204 and then to the 50-day simple moving average of $3199 is expected [3]

Group 1 - ECB President Lagarde stated that if governments strengthen the financial and security framework of the Eurozone, the euro could become a viable alternative to the US dollar, benefiting the G20 significantly [1] - Global investors have been reducing exposure to dollar assets due to erratic US economic policies, with many opting for gold instead of direct alternatives [1] - The euro's global standing has stagnated for decades due to an incomplete EU financial system and a lack of interest in further integration among member states [1] Group 2 - Lagarde emphasized that any enhancement of the euro's status must be matched by stronger military capabilities to support partnerships, as investors seek geopolitical security [2] - The euro should become the preferred currency for international trade invoices, achievable through new trade agreements, enhanced cross-border payments, and liquidity agreements with the ECB [2] - Reforming the domestic economy is urgent, as the Eurozone capital markets remain fragmented and inefficient, lacking truly liquid and widely available safe assets for investors [2] Group 3 - Joint financing is necessary for public goods, which could lay the foundation for gradually increasing the supply of safe assets in Europe [2] - Joint issuance of bonds remains a taboo for key Eurozone members, particularly Germany, due to concerns about taxpayers potentially covering the fiscal irresponsibility of other countries [2] - Successful reforms could lead to significant benefits, including lower borrowing costs for domestic companies, protection from exchange rate fluctuations, and shielding from international sanctions [2]