国债期货研发报告 国债期货年报 2025 年 12 月 31 日 资产再平衡中的债市 第一部分 前言概要 【年报摘要】 当前国内基本面弱稳态势延续，年内 GDP 增速逐季回落，通胀修复也 是结构性的。内需与信贷数据均指向居民部门是三部门中的短板，对应终端 需求不足和居民资产负债表持续收缩。不过，市场对明年经济增长和通胀读 数的预期出现明显改善。首先，"反内卷"从供给端为部分工业品价格提供 了相对清晰的政策底部，货币活化程度上升也奠定了价格反弹的基础。其次， 虽然路径尚不明确，但 12 月重要会议前后释放的信息显示明年广义财政支 出有望保持力度，并在方向上进一步向居民部门倾斜。第三，地缘扰动阶段 性缓和后，海外政策宽松带来的潜在外溢效应也将继续对出口构成支撑，而 潜在的外部输入性通胀同样提振了后续价格指标的修复预期。 今年一季度之后，央行对流动性的呵护态度较为明确，四季度重启国债 买卖丰富流动性投放工具也有助于稳定后续资金面预期。但央行政策利率调 降门槛较高，内部净息差压力尚存，不同行业景气度较为分化也降低了"宽 货币"加码的边际效用。 基本面与流动性多空交织的情况下，机构行为的影响权重有所上升。监 管驱动的资 ...

顾名思义，所谓资产再平衡，是指投资者定期或不定期地调整投资组合中各类资产（如股票、债券、现金 等）的比例，使其恢复到初始设定的目标配置。举个例子，如果原始组合是5-5开的股债组合，一年后股 票涨了、债券跌了，就通过卖出股票、买入债券的方式进行再平衡。 从这个角度看，再平衡的根本目的不是提高组合收益，而是维持组合原有的风险收益特征，这是一种风险 管理的方法。毕竟，随着风险资产的价格大幅上涨（或下跌），那么它继续上涨（或下跌）的概率会变 小，波动性却随之增大。通过再平衡，将手中投资组合的风险和回报维持在适合自己的目标区间内，降低 组合风险的同时，又避免了"追涨杀跌"，何乐而不为？ 时值岁末，不少大机构相继发布的2026年投资展望报告。小编读了几份资料，感觉"分化"、"复杂"是其中 的高频词汇。 比如，高盛2026年的投资展望报告标题是"于复杂环境中捕捉新契机"（Seeking Catalysts Amid Complexity），该报告认为，全球央行的政策方向、新的贸易秩序、财政风险等正在共同发挥作用，营造 复杂的投资环境。此外，公开市场领域，各股票市场差异或将扩大，全球央行的政策路径也会呈现更为显 著的差异。 ...

前言 拉长到十年看更吓人——现在的金价差不多是十年前的四倍，妥妥跑赢大多数资产。 更值得注意的是，世界黄金协会最近一份报告提到，全球有95%的央行明确表示，明年还要继续加仓黄 金，这个比例可是近六年里头一回这么高。 你发现没？最近金融市场悄悄发生了一件大事。2025年第二季度，全球各国央行手里攥着的黄金总价 值，头一回超过了他们持有的美国国债。 这可不是小打小闹，而是三十年来的头一遭。曾经被捧上神坛的美债，如今似乎有点失宠了。这背后， 到底藏着什么信号？ 黄金，终于压过美债一头 你发现没？咱们熟悉的那个"全球最稳资产"——美国国债，最近有点失宠了。2025年第二季度，全球各 国央行手里攥着的黄金，总价值头一回超过了他们持有的美债。 这可不是小打小闹，而是自1996年以来整整30年里的第一次！要知道，过去几十年，美债可是被当 成"金边债券"供着的，安全、流动、有美国背书，谁不抢着买？ 现在风向真的不一样了。就拿今年来说，金价从年初每克600出头一路飙到900块以上，涨了快一半，这 速度连老投资者都直呼没见过。 难怪最近又有人提起马克思那句老话——"金银天生不是货币，但货币天生就得是金银"。听起来有点 绕，但意思 ...

（来源：东海研究） 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 全球大类资产回顾。12月5日当周，全球股市多数上涨，A股表现相对较好；主要商品期货中铜、原油、铝收涨，黄金收跌；美元指数小幅下跌，非美货 币升值。1）权益方面：创业板指>沪深300指数>深证成指>恒生科技指数>纳指>恒生指数>德国DAX30>道指>日经225>上证指数>标普500>科创50>法国 CAC40>英国富时100。2）当周美债收益率上升影响金价表现，黄金震荡回落；原油受地缘政治冲突升级影响当周小幅震荡上行。3）工业品期货：南华 工业品价格指数上涨，螺纹钢、水泥小幅上涨，炼焦煤、混凝土小幅回落；高炉开工率当周下跌；乘用车当周日均零售7.54万辆，环比上涨25.39%，同比 下跌7.00%；BDI环比上涨6.52%。4）国内利率债收益率涨跌不一，全周中债1Y国债收益率下跌0.01BP至1.4016%，10Y国债收益率上涨0.68BP收至 1.8480%。5）美日国债收益率普遍上行。2Y美债收益率当周上行9BP至3.56%，10Y美债收益率上行12BP至4.14%；10Y日债收益率上涨12.7BP至 1.9390%。6）美元指数收于98 ...

人民财讯12月8日电，华安基金相关人士认为，岁末年初港股红利效应较强，最核心原因可能是，对于 追求相对收益的部分机构资金，年底是进行资产再平衡的关键窗口期。为了锁定当年收益，部分机构可 能会卖出一些短期估值较高、波动较大的成长股，短期转向高股息、高安全边际的港股红利板块。比较 典型的是2016-2017年蓝筹白马、2021年新能源车牛市、2022年10月政策放松后TMT快速上行，均在年 末至次年初，出现前期强势板块调整，市场风格短期偏移至港股红利板块。 ...

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights the expectation of a dollar interest rate cut and a yen interest rate hike, suggesting a rebalancing of assets in search of certainty [5][7] - It emphasizes the strong performance of the domestic equity market, particularly in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communication, and defense [6][10] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with domestic wafer fabs operating at full capacity and significant growth in AI-related products [10][15] Group 2: Market Overview - Global stock markets mostly rose in the week ending December 5, with A-shares performing relatively well; commodities like copper and crude oil saw price increases, while gold prices fell [5][6] - The report notes that the average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market was 16,843 billion yuan, with 17 sectors rising and 14 falling [6][23] - The report indicates that the yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds rose to 1.848%, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries increased to 4.14% [5][25] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry showed continued improvement in November, with demand for PCs and smartphones slightly increasing, and rapid growth in TWS headphones and smart home devices [10][12] - The report mentions that the global semiconductor sales in September increased by 25.13% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in demand [12][13] - Domestic wafer fabs are expected to maintain full capacity, with significant revenue growth reported by major companies like Huahong and SMIC [15][16] Group 4: Economic and Policy Developments - The report discusses the Chinese government's focus on energy conservation and carbon reduction as part of its economic strategy [17] - It highlights a video call between Chinese and U.S. officials aimed at enhancing economic cooperation and addressing mutual concerns [17][18] - The report notes that China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 0.09% in November, with the central bank continuing to accumulate gold for the 13th consecutive month [19][20]

王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月07日 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [美元降息与日元加息预期，资产再平衡 Table_NewTitle] 下寻找确定性 ——资产配置周报（2025/12/01-2025/12/05） [table_main] 投资要点 总 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。12月5日当周，全球股市多数上涨，A股表现相对较好；主要商品期货 中铜、原油、铝收涨，黄金收跌；美元指数小幅下跌，非美货币升值。1）权益方面： ...

以下文章来源于首席品牌评论 ，作者首席品牌评论 首席品牌评论 . 热门品牌案例，专业深度评论。在这里，读懂品牌之道！ 这里插播一条课程资讯： 报名 「吴世春·西安出行活动」， 1月22日-24日 ， 吴世春将亲自带队 100家企业家 ， 去陕 西西安线下游学 ， 走进科技制造产业，打开万亿赛道蓝海。 你 在 创业路上遇到的问题和想法 ， 都可以找吴老师聊聊 。 如果你是 优质的项目，吴老师 也会果断投 你。 下半年 ， 吴老师预计要投出去的金额，应该不小于 15个亿。 扫码咨询报名 （翻到底部了解详情） 01 万达赎身 赎回不是终点，而是新周期的起点。 来源： 首席品牌评论 在中国商业地产的寒冬时刻，王健林做了一个令人意外的决定——赎回一座万达广场。 12月2日，烟台芝罘万达广场有限公司的股权结构发生重大调整，万达商管旗下全资子公司上 海万达锐驰企业管理有限公司接盘，新华保险旗下两大投资主体退出股东行列。 这是万达在连续出售超过40座万达广场后，首次启动资产赎回操作。 赎回烟台芝罘万达广场绝非偶然。 这座广场成立于2010年，注册资本7.08亿元，商业面积24万平方米，是万达商管的第103座 万达广场。 更关 ...

Market Overview - After a week of low-volume rebound in the last trading week of November, the A-share market experienced a pullback on December 2, with ETF trading volumes in the ChiNext and STAR Market falling below the average levels of November [1][4] - On December 1, nearly 10 billion yuan of net outflow was observed in A-share ETFs, with broad-based theme ETFs experiencing the most significant outflows [3][9] Sector Performance - The A-share market saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.68%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.69%. Total trading volume across both markets was 1.6073 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous trading day [4] - Defensive attributes of dividend-paying assets became prominent, as cash flow stable and high-dividend sectors attracted investor interest, leading to a general rise in Hong Kong dividend ETFs [2][4] Fund Flows - A total net outflow of approximately 95 billion yuan was recorded in A-share ETFs on December 1, with significant outflows from major index ETFs such as the SSE 50 ETF and CSI 300 ETF [9] - Conversely, certain products like gaming ETFs, consumer electronics ETFs, and communication ETFs attracted net inflows, indicating a shift in investor preferences [10][11] ETF Performance - As of December 2, several Hong Kong dividend-related ETFs have shown strong performance, with many increasing over 25% year-to-date. The Hong Kong dividend ETF (159691) reached a total share of 6.469 billion and a scale of 8.694 billion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date share growth of 42.96% and a scale growth of 75.78% [6] - The performance of various ETFs on December 1 showed that the Hong Kong dividend low-volatility ETFs rose by over 1%, while sectors like media, robotics, and rare metals faced declines [4][5] Investment Strategy - According to research from GF Securities, the current period may represent a critical window for year-end asset rebalancing, with some institutions likely to sell high-valuation growth stocks to invest in high-dividend, safer Hong Kong dividend assets [6][12] - The trend of seeking certainty in investments is expected to continue, with investors gravitating towards stable cash flow and high-dividend sectors as the year-end approaches [12]

Market Overview - After a week of reduced trading volume and a rebound in late November, the A-share market experienced a pullback on December 2, with trading volumes for related ETFs in the ChiNext and STAR Market falling below the average levels of November [1][4]. Fund Flows - On December 1, nearly 10 billion yuan in net outflows were recorded for A-share ETFs, with broad-based theme ETFs experiencing the most significant outflows [3][9]. - The total trading volume for the A-share market was 1.6073 trillion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous trading day [4]. Performance of ETFs - Several Hong Kong dividend ETFs saw gains, with many increasing by over 1% on the same day [4]. - Year-to-date, multiple Hong Kong dividend-related ETFs have performed well, with some increasing by over 25% [6]. - As of December 1, the latest share count for the Hong Kong dividend ETF reached 6.469 billion shares, with a total scale of 8.694 billion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date share growth of 42.96% and a scale growth of 75.78% [6]. Sector Performance - The energy metals, CRO concepts, and medical services sectors saw the largest declines, while the road and railway transportation, as well as agriculture and forestry sectors, experienced gains [4]. - The trend of investors seeking stable cash flow and high-dividend assets is expected to continue as the year ends, driven by institutional investors locking in profits and a seasonal influx of insurance funds [6][11]. Specific ETF Data - The following ETFs showed notable performance on December 1: - The S&P Consumer ETF rose by 2.53% but is down 8.76% year-to-date - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF increased by 1.70% with a year-to-date gain of 28.86% [5]. - The A500 ETF maintained active trading, while other ETFs like the STAR 50 and ChiNext saw significant reductions in trading volumes compared to November's daily averages [7].