3)中国股票涨幅在全球股市排名靠前，受益AI产业趋势的A股创业板指上涨近50%，沪深300指数全年上 涨18%，港股恒生指数上涨28%，均为近5年最大年涨幅且跑赢美股市场。其它资产方面，原油下跌18% 成为表现最差的资产，美债明显上涨，全球呈现出股债双牛的格局。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研究报告称，2026年国际货币秩序重构仍是全球资产的主线。2025年是国 际货币秩序重构加速之年，2026年中金认为该趋势仍将延续，这些趋势支持中国股票和黄金延续牛市， 并有利于中国股票跑赢美股。资产配置建议：超配中国股票和黄金，标配大宗商品、美股和美债，低配 中国国债。 中金公司主要观点如下： 一、 2025年全球与中国资产回顾与启示 全球市场黄金与中国股票领涨，非美资产跑赢美元资产，美元贬值。回顾2025年全球主要大类资产以美 元计价的表现，有几个突出特征： 1)黄金表现最好，2025年涨幅67%，涨幅也创下了1980年以来的最大年涨幅，有色金属中具备较强金融 属性的铜也涨幅靠前。 2)美元贬值，非美资产跑赢，美元成为去年表现最差的资产之一，美元指数跌幅接近10%，标普500代 表的美股上涨16%，新兴市场股票上涨31 ...

最近，外资连续大量抛售中国国债，同时，美国国债却不断刷新纪录。市场上很快传出"资金正纷纷涌向美国"的说法，也有人会觉得中国的操作不妥，这 真是事实吗？ 债券市场上，中美资金的流动就像两股交错的河流。一边是美国国债连续创新高，另一边是外资不断减持中国债市。 看起来像是在玩"你抛美债，我抛中债"的游戏，但实际上更像是一场经过深思熟虑的调仓操作。 资金向来没有啥真感情，它只关心风险和收益的那点事儿。这点在2025年的数字里表现得特别明白。 美国财政部的数据摆在那儿，2025年7月，外资持有的美国国债总额达到了9.159万亿美金，比6月份多了319亿美元。日本依旧稳坐第一，把1.151万亿美元 的债务牢牢抓在手里。 英国也蹭得挺快，已经涨到8993亿美元，第二的位置继续稳固。说白了，这些数字背后折射出的热度，真是让人捉摸不透。 虽然美债看起来挺火爆，但暗藏的担忧也不少。美国的债务总额已经突破37万亿美元，每百天就往上爬1万亿，利息支出占了GDP的3.2%。 从2025年5月到7月，外资在中国债券市场累计抛售了3700亿元人民币，8月又减少了1000亿元，这一系列动作让外资在中国的债券持仓降到了近五年来的 最低水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy has demonstrated strong resilience amidst a complex international environment, achieving high-quality development with GDP surpassing 140 trillion yuan for the first time [4][5]. Economic Outlook - The outlook for the new year is optimistic, with China's economy characterized by strong resilience, a complete industrial system, a vast market, and continuously improving technological innovation capabilities [5][14]. - The capital market is expected to play a more significant role in supporting technological innovation, promoting industrial upgrades, and enhancing consumption upgrades [5][14]. Market Trends - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets will focus on the "New Four Bulls" logic, advancing along three main lines: technological self-reliance, industrial upgrades, and strategic resource security [6][15]. - The stock market is anticipated to continue a slow upward trend, with capital and liquidity concentrating on endogenous economic growth [6][15]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors expected to shine in the new year include AI, semiconductors, computers, primary products, minor metals, new energy, high-end manufacturing, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, military industry, and pharmaceuticals [6][15]. - The bond market is entering a low-interest-rate era, with a long-term downward trend in yields expected, particularly in the short to medium term [6][15]. Commodity Insights - Gold and silver are viewed as long-term investment opportunities, with recent price fluctuations driven by geopolitical factors rather than traditional economic indicators [7][16]. - Central banks and investors are increasing their holdings of gold and silver due to concerns over geopolitical tensions, rising debt levels, and the weaponization of the dollar [7][16].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese bond market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable decline in yields, particularly the 10-year government bond yield falling below 1.81%, indicating its potential as a safe-haven asset amidst global market volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased by 9.05 basis points since January 7, while the 30-year bond yield has fallen by 9.6 basis points [1]. - As of February 5, the 30-year government bond yield was reported at 2.239%, and the 10-year bond yield was at 1.808% [1]. - The bond market has exhibited low volatility compared to other assets, suggesting a return to its characteristics as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed 14-day reverse repos, injecting 300 billion yuan into the market, which is seen as a positive for the bond market [1]. - In January, the PBOC's net bond purchases amounted to 1 trillion yuan, with a significant increase in the net purchase scale compared to previous months [3]. - The central bank's actions, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, are expected to influence market liquidity and bond yields in the coming months [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the attractiveness of Chinese bonds will increase as global interest rates shift, particularly with expectations of the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle by 2025 [3]. - The bond market is anticipated to face dual pressures from seasonal cash demands and potential policy changes as the Chinese New Year approaches [3]. - Long-term risks to bond yields may arise from improved economic data and a potential shift towards a looser monetary policy later in the year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield falling below 1.81%, down over 9 basis points from nearly 1.9% a month ago, indicating a shift towards a more stable environment for bonds as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The bond market continues to show signs of recovery, with government bond futures rising across the board, and the yields on various maturities, including 10-year and 30-year bonds, declining [3]. - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased by 9.05 basis points since January 7, while the 30-year bond yield has fallen by 9.6 basis points during the same period [3]. - Despite fluctuations in gold and silver prices, the Chinese bond market has not demonstrated significant hedging characteristics, but its low volatility suggests a return to its safe-haven status [4][5]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - On February 5, the central bank resumed 14-day reverse repos, injecting 300 billion yuan into the market, which is seen as a positive for the bond market [4]. - The central bank's net bond purchases in January reached 100 billion yuan, significantly higher than previous months, indicating a more aggressive stance in supporting the bond market [7]. - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is influencing market sentiment, with analysts predicting a stable bond yield environment in the near term [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the 10-year government bond yield may further decline to around 1.75%, while the 30-year bond yield could find a lower limit near 2.15% [8]. - The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, with the 10-year yield likely stabilizing between 1.8% and 1.9% in February [8]. - The potential for a shift in the yield curve is contingent upon the formation of interest rate cut expectations, which may lead to a parallel downward movement in yields [9].

Core Viewpoint - The 10-year government bond yield has fallen below 1.81%, indicating a recovery in the bond market, while discussions about the "safe haven" attributes of Chinese government bonds are increasing amid global asset volatility [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - As of February 5, the 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.808%, down from nearly 1.9% a month ago, reflecting a decline of over 9 basis points [1][2]. - The 30-year government bond yield also showed a gradual decline, with the active bond "25超长特别国债06" yielding 2.239%, down 1.2 basis points [2][3]. - The bond market has experienced a recovery since January 7, with the 10-year bond yield dropping a cumulative 9.05 basis points and the 30-year bond yield down 9.6 basis points [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - On February 5, the central bank resumed 14-day reverse repos, injecting 300 billion yuan into the market, which positively impacted the bond market [3]. - The central bank's net injection for the day was 645 billion yuan, following the maturity of 354 billion yuan in reverse repos [3]. - The central bank's actions, including a significant increase in net bond purchases in January, have improved market sentiment and contributed to a downward shift in the yield curve [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Most institutions predict that the bond market will maintain a strong but volatile performance leading up to the Spring Festival, with increased information flow post-holiday [1][6]. - Analysts expect the 10-year government bond yield may further decline to around 1.75%, while the 30-year yield could stabilize around 2.15% [7]. - The bond market is anticipated to remain stable within the range of 1.8% to 1.9% for the 10-year yield in February, influenced by stable economic expectations and reduced volatility [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) remains optimistic about Japanese 30-year government bonds despite recent market sell-offs, indicating that the current yield levels present attractive investment opportunities [2]. Group 1: Investment Sentiment - PIMCO's positive outlook aligns with a growing number of investors who find the Japanese bond market appealing [2]. - The recent sell-off resulted in a market value loss of approximately $41 billion, driven by concerns over the fiscal expansion of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government [2]. - PIMCO emphasizes that higher yields could lead to capital gains during interest rate declines and help hedge against economic shocks, stock market volatility, or significant yen appreciation [2]. Group 2: Yield Curve and Policy Outlook - PIMCO prefers the long end of the yield curve, specifically the 30-year Japanese government bonds, citing steepness and limited issuance incentives from the Japanese Ministry of Finance [2]. - The firm anticipates that the Bank of Japan will gradually normalize its policy, potentially raising the policy rate by 25 to 50 basis points within the next year, targeting a range of 1% to 1.25% [3]. - The current 10-year Japanese government bond yield is approximately 2.235%, and PIMCO expects it to remain around this level [3]. Group 3: Global Context and Risks - The current currency hedging costs are favorable for global investors, enhancing the relative attractiveness of Japanese bonds compared to similar global assets [3]. - Potential risks that could push yields beyond the expected range include a weaker yen or unexpected acceleration in inflation, which may prompt quicker or larger policy rate hikes [3]. - The more expansionary fiscal stance of the Kishida government introduces additional uncertainty, although financial market pressures are expected to limit excessive policy expansion [3]. Group 4: Broader Market Insights - The short-term outlook for Chinese bonds remains positive, particularly for longer-term government bonds [4]. - Strong current account balances and returning capital inflows are expected to support the gradual appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar and other major currencies [4]. - Australia's long-term neutral cash rate is projected to be close to 3%, with policy rates stabilizing around this level after inflation stabilizes and economic growth returns to trend [4].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple Wall Street hedge fund managers believe that a significant shock to the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy could lead to a rapid decline in the US dollar, potentially bringing the RMB to USD exchange rate close to 6.60. However, large asset management firms on Wall Street are cautious about buying RMB [1][5]. Group 1: Hedge Fund Strategies - Zhang Gang, a multi-strategy hedge fund manager, increased the proportion of RMB assets in his emerging market currency portfolio from 10% to 25%, anticipating that the RMB will appreciate against the USD, targeting a rate of around 6.80 within the year, which could yield over 7% returns [2]. - A macro hedge fund trader, Yu Yong, has been increasing offshore RMB positions in a $200 million emerging market portfolio, believing that China's economic fundamentals and improved external trade environment will support RMB appreciation [7]. - Hedge funds are becoming increasingly active in the offshore RMB market, with some converting millions into offshore RMB to capitalize on potential appreciation [10]. Group 2: Large Asset Management Firms' Caution - Large asset management firms are taking a cautious approach to RMB investments, influenced by uncertainties regarding the sustainability of China's trade surplus and economic performance [5][12]. - These firms prioritize global asset allocation strategies and are not rushing to increase RMB assets, focusing instead on the performance of US stocks and the USD index [12][13]. - Despite some hedge fund managers expressing disappointment, large asset management firms view RMB appreciation as a secondary strategy, limiting individual investments to no more than 2% of total assets [12][13]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Predictions - Citigroup economists predict that the RMB will strengthen due to China's push for RMB internationalization and easing trade tensions, forecasting an exchange rate of 6.80 within the next 6 to 12 months [3]. - As of January 15, 2026, the one-year USD to RMB swap points indicate a market expectation of the RMB rising to approximately 6.8495, without breaking the 6.80 mark [8]. - The potential for a "black swan" event, such as unexpected Fed rate cuts, could lead to a significant appreciation of the RMB, with some hedge funds betting on a rate as low as 6.50 [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The survey indicates an optimistic outlook for China's economy in 2026, with a focus on stability and growth, as well as the need for supportive policies in the real estate sector [1][3][4]. Economic Outlook - Over 70% of economists believe that China's economic growth in the past year met expectations, with 21% stating it exceeded them [3][13]. - The expected GDP growth for 2025 is around 5%, with the total economic output projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan [3]. - The "Securities Times Economic Expectation Heat Index" has risen for three consecutive quarters, reflecting improved expectations for the economy [3]. International Trade and Investment - More than 60% of respondents expect the international trade environment to stabilize, with manageable impacts on China's economy [4][13]. - Fixed asset investment growth is anticipated to slightly increase in the first half of 2026, with 57% of respondents expressing optimism [4][14]. Stock Market Expectations - 96% of respondents rated the stock market outlook for the first half of 2026 positively, scoring 3 or above on a scale of 5 [6][19]. - Nearly 60% expect a slight inflow of cross-border capital, with A-shares and precious metals being the most favored asset classes [7][19]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Over 60% of economists believe there is room to increase the fiscal deficit rate, which is expected to remain above 4% [9][21]. - The next round of monetary easing, such as interest rate cuts, is anticipated to occur between the Lunar New Year and the end of the first quarter [9][21]. Real Estate Market Policies - A majority of respondents suggest implementing more supportive policies for the real estate market, including the establishment of a national housing stock purchase fund and lowering existing mortgage rates [10][22]. - 61% recommend the removal of restrictions in first-tier cities to stabilize the housing market [10][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan and its impact on the Chinese economy, particularly in the context of the ongoing internationalization of the yuan and the changing global economic landscape. Group 1: Yuan Appreciation and Economic Impact - The offshore yuan exchange rate reached a high of 7.43 in April 2025 and strengthened to break the 7.0 mark by the end of the year, marking a significant recovery since the trade war lows [1][4] - The appreciation of the yuan is seen as a reflection of China's economic resilience amidst external pressures, particularly from the US trade protectionism [1][6] - The current level of the yuan is not considered "seriously undervalued," but there are some factors contributing to its perceived undervaluation, including structural issues in the domestic economy [5][9] Group 2: Structural Factors Influencing Yuan Valuation - The dual nature of the yuan's exchange rate, reflecting both real economic conditions and financial market dynamics, complicates the assessment of its valuation [5][6] - Domestic market segmentation and competition have led to price suppression, contributing to the undervaluation of the yuan [7][9] - The overall price level in China has improved, indicating that the yuan is not as undervalued as previously thought, countering claims from Western nations [4][5] Group 3: Internationalization of the Yuan - The article emphasizes the importance of the yuan's appreciation for its internationalization, suggesting that a stable and gradually appreciating yuan could enhance its role as a global reserve currency [25][30] - The current global economic environment, characterized by a weakening dollar and rising inflation in Western countries, presents an opportunity for the yuan to gain traction as a safe asset [12][25] - The potential for the yuan to become a credible alternative to the US dollar is linked to China's ability to provide stable and reliable financial assets, particularly in the context of increasing skepticism towards US debt [27][30] Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The article suggests that while the yuan can appreciate, it should do so at a controlled pace to avoid market distortions and excessive speculation [22][23] - Internal reforms aimed at improving wage levels and price structures are recommended as a means to support the yuan's appreciation sustainably [23][24] - The need for China to enhance its soft power and narrative in the global market is highlighted as crucial for gaining pricing power and furthering the yuan's internationalization [34][35]