编者按：2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，稳健起步至关重要。而作为"十四五"规划的收官之年， 2025年是中国经济与金融发展历程中值得铭记的一年。2025年，面对来自美国的贸易保护主义风暴，中 国经济展现出强大韧性，成为全球主要经济体中的稳定支柱。同时，人民币对美元离岸汇率自贸易战低 点持续回升，在年末实现在岸、离岸人民币汇率7.0双突破。 在此承前启后的时间节点，怎么看待人民币升值对中国经济的影响、如何展望人民币国际化的未来路 径，观察者网特邀复旦大学国际金融研究中心主任、中国国际金融学会理事杨长江教授进行深度解读。 【整理/观察者网 唐晓甫】 观察者网：回顾2025年，离岸人民币汇率在4月份曾触及7.43的高点，随后人民币一路走强，终于在年 底突破7.0，进入了"6时代"。这是自2024年9月底以来，离岸人民币汇率首次突破7.0关口。从您的角度 看，当前人民币的升值趋势是否合理？长期以来，国际上一直存在关于人民币"被低估"的讨论甚至炒 作，部分声音鼓吹人民币需要大幅、快速升值。我们应如何看待来自美欧等地的这类观点？ 杨长江：探讨这个问题，首先要做一个根本性判断：当前人民币汇率水平是否处于"严重低估"状 ...

专题：2025三亚•财经国际论坛 三亚•财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会12月27日在海南三亚举办。嘉实财富副总经理邝霞出席 并发言。 邝霞表示，在全球经济增长放缓的今天，单靠一类资产很难提供账户所需收益。比如，中国国债收益率 已走低至1.8、1.7的水平，若只配股票，会有较大波动。需要在账户基础上，通过商品均衡配置来穿越 周期。 她进一步指出，债券是整个账户的压舱石。美联储已开启降息周期，投资级债券有了估值优势。从股票 角度看，股票是账户增长的引擎。特别是在AI科技推动企业高速成长的今天，科创板硬科技成为投资 的重要增长力量。合理将这些资产放入账户，可提升账户盈利价值增长空间。 邝霞还表示，在全球不确定性增大的今天，黄金等商品的配置价值凸显，可作为风险对冲工具。同时， 像铜、稀土等受益于全球AI基础建设投资的商品，也具有良好前景。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑：王翔 专题：2025三亚•财经国际论坛 三亚•财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会12月27日 ...

12月25日，人民币对美元中间价报7.0392，上调79个基点；中间价升值至2024年9月30日以来最高，升 幅创2025年8月27日以来最大。 近期人民币升值行情，是外部压力趋缓、内部韧性增强、政策精准调控与市场预期转向等多种因素共同 作用的结果。专家认为，本轮人民币升值的直接推动力，来自美元环境的转变。伴随美联储继续开展降 息，市场预期将进一步压制美元长期走势，为人民币提供外部升值空间。 "从内部因素看，中国经济的韧性与吸引力构成坚实的基本面支撑，特别是经济数据边际改善与政策预 期升温，为人民币汇率提供了支持。"国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟表示，出口展现出超 预期韧性，前11个月中国贸易顺差首次超过1万亿美元，中国资本市场的亮眼表现也吸引外资持续流 入，国际投资者对中国国债的持有规模不断扩大，这些因素都直接增加了人民币的买盘力量。 庞溟认为，尽管近期人民币汇率持续走强，但预计后续仍将围绕7.0双向波动，出现单边快速升值的概 率较低。实体企业尤其是有涉外业务的企业，需积极构建系统性汇率风险管理能力，将汇率波动纳入日 常经营决策。 在中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛看来，推动近期人民币汇率走强主要有两方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has led to negative returns for dollar deposits, impacting individuals and families with foreign currency holdings [2][3][6]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - The offshore yuan has shown a significant upward trend against the US dollar, with the exchange rate reaching 7.3368 by December 31, 2024 [1]. - Since November 21, the yuan has been steadily rising from around 7.11, with expectations of breaking the 7 mark increasing [6]. - The yuan's appreciation is attributed to a combination of external pressures easing, internal economic resilience, and market expectations shifting [7]. Group 2: Impact on Individuals and Families - Individuals holding dollar deposits have experienced losses due to the yuan's appreciation, with one case showing a loss of 1,033 yuan on an 8,400 dollar deposit [2]. - Families with children studying abroad benefit from the yuan's strength, as it reduces the cost of tuition and living expenses in foreign currencies [3][8]. Group 3: Market Implications - The appreciation of the yuan is expected to positively influence the Chinese stock and bond markets, enhancing the attractiveness of yuan-denominated assets [8]. - Increased demand for yuan due to seasonal currency exchange needs from businesses is contributing to the currency's strength [7].

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Baoju Securities Weekly Report - **Report Date**: December 22, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report Core View - Global economic slowdown and inflation trends affect various asset markets, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange. Market participants are closely watching central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical events to assess investment opportunities and risks. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Stock Market - **European Stocks**: Economic slowdown and inflation concerns lead to fluctuations in European major stock indices. The European Central Bank maintains interest rates, and the market awaits PMI data to judge the possibility of a mild recovery in early 2026 [3][4]. - **Chinese Stocks**: Weak domestic demand and real - estate market issues pressure the Chinese market. Beijing may introduce new stimulus measures. Investors are looking for blue - chip stocks with clear profit prospects for portfolio layout [3][4]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rebounds after being affected by the US inflation data. Market liquidity may improve with the expansion of regulations and IPO activities, but returns depend on foreign capital inflows and the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3][4]. - **US Stocks**: The decline in the November CPI data boosts expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. The market focuses on year - end spending and profit expectations, and the AI sector's technical changes increase market volatility [3]. Global Bond Market - **Government Bonds**: The FTSE World Government Bond Index falls 0.04%. Although the decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, the hawkish stances of the Fed and the Bank of England limit gains. Prices remain range - bound due to year - end liquidity tightening and policy uncertainty [5]. - **High - Yield Bonds**: The Bloomberg Global High - Yield Bond Index rises 0.29%. Spreads narrow and economic optimism boost risk appetite. However, emerging - market debt faces challenges due to the strong US dollar, despite China's stimulus measures. High - yield bonds will remain popular in 2026, and emerging - market performance depends on exchange - rate stability and fiscal progress [5]. Commodities - **WTI Crude**: WTI crude oil falls 1.36% to $56.66 per barrel. The progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and global economic growth concerns lead to a second - consecutive - week decline. In 2026, expected production surpluses and stable OPEC+ output may put pressure on oil prices, and the market focuses on year - end inventory data [8]. - **Gold**: Gold prices rise 0.91% to $4338.88 per ounce. The decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, and year - end hedging operations drive up gold prices. Interest - rate cuts and central - bank demand support gold prices moving towards $4400, but the Fed's hawkish remarks may trigger profit - taking [9]. - **Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index**: The index falls 0.16% to 580.08. Weak energy prices offset the rise of gold and soft commodities. The market is weighing 2026 growth expectations, and commodities will remain range - bound. Upcoming PMI data are crucial for assessing metal and energy demand [10]. Foreign Exchange - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index rises 0.20% to 98.60. Weak CPI data boost expectations of 2026 interest - rate cuts, but the Fed's hawkish remarks provide support. The index is expected to fluctuate around the current level, with technical support at 98.00 [11]. - **RMB against the US Dollar**: The RMB falls 0.20% to 7.0411. Weak domestic demand and the real - estate market pressure the RMB, but the optimistic 2026 fiscal expansion outlook limits the decline. The RMB's trend depends on the pace of fiscal stimulus and the overall strength of the US dollar [12]. Main Indices and Economic Data - **Main Indices**: The report provides price and cumulative return data of major global stock indices such as the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, the Shanghai Composite Index, the US Dow Jones Index, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [16]. - **Economic Data**: It includes data on non - farm payrolls, unemployment rates, PMI, CPI, and other economic indicators in the US and Europe, with comparisons between previous values, market expectations, and actual values [17]. Bond/Foreign Exchange Index - **Bond Index**: It shows the price, change percentage, and yield of various government bonds such as US, Chinese, Japanese, German, and British bonds as of December 19, 2025 [18]. - **Foreign Exchange Index**: It provides price and cumulative return data of major currency pairs including the Hong Kong dollar, the US dollar, the euro, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [18].

2025年全球金融市场迎来重磅变量——日本央行在12月将政策利率上调至0.75%，创下三十年以来新 高，彻底告别了长期超宽松货币环境。这场被市场预判概率高达85%的加息操作，源于日本核心CPI连 续50个月突破2%目标、日元贬值濒临红线的双重压力，看似是日本的内部政策调整，却在全球经济紧 密联动的背景下引发蝴蝶效应。对中国而言，这波加息不仅冲击着A股、汇率等金融市场，还通过大宗 商品、贸易链条间接影响到畜牧业等实体产业。结合2025年权威数据和市场动态，今天就拆明白这波加 息对中国的具体影响，以及相关领域该如何应对。 金融市场：短期扰动不改长期逻辑，板块分化明显 日本加息对中国金融市场的影响主要通过资金流动、汇率传导和情绪扩散三条路径，整体呈现"短期波 动、中长期结构性分化"的特征。 - 资金流动方面：日元长期是全球套息交易的核心融资货币，约1万亿美元级套息盘在加息后借贷成本 上升，可能引发平仓潮，部分北向资金（日元套息盘占比不足5%）阶段性撤离A股，2025年4月日本加 息后就曾出现北向单周流出180亿的情况，短期冲击外资重仓的消费白马和高估值科技股。 - 汇率与资产定价方面：中日10年期国债收益率在202 ...

哈喽，大家好，今天小墨这篇国际评论，就来聊聊俄罗斯莫斯科首发人民币主权债引发西方热议，全球 多国扎堆拥抱人民币，这到底是市场用脚投票的理性选择，还是西方炒作的"货币对抗"？ 这股"人民币热"的背后，既非中国单方面推动的"货币扩张"，也不是针对任何货币的对抗行动，而是全 球经济主体基于现实需求做出的理性抉择，是国际货币体系多元化演进的必然结果。 人民币在国际市场的认可度，正通过一个个具体行动不断夯实。 俄罗斯在莫斯科首发人民币主权债，成为人民币国际化进程中的又一标志性事件，而这只是全球"人民 币热"的一个缩影。 12月，俄罗斯财政部宣布在莫斯科发行首批人民币计价主权债券，这一常规的国际融资行为，却被部分 西方舆论贴上"挑战美元体系""地缘政治对抗"的标签。 从英国、印尼到俄罗斯，从巴西、印度到东盟各国，越来越多国家主动选择人民币作为结算、储备和融 资货币。 截至2024年四季度，全球80多个国家和地区的央行已将人民币纳入外汇储备，总额达2470亿美元，IMF 数据显示其占比升至2.18%，较2016年加入SDR时提升1.1个百分点。 全球"人民币版图"持续扩容，多国用行动投下信任票 在东盟地区，中国与越南、马来 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the stock market, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs before experiencing a downturn, causing panic among investors [3][31]. - The absence of the U.S. CPI data has led to market fears regarding the Federal Reserve's cautious approach, with concerns that interest rates may not be lowered in December [4][6]. - The article highlights that despite the lack of CPI data, the Federal Reserve has other data to consider, and the current economic situation in the U.S. is not as strong as it appears, masked by the tech boom [9][10]. Group 2 - There has been a significant increase in non-bank loans in the U.S., with $550 billion in new loans in the first ten months of the year, marking a 40% growth rate [18][19]. - Non-bank loans have surpassed the total of real estate, industrial, and consumer loans combined, indicating a shift in credit dynamics [19][21]. - The article outlines the main areas where non-bank loans are directed, including commercial real estate, residential mortgages, corporate credit, and consumer finance, driven by tighter bank regulations and the need for flexible financing [22][23]. Group 3 - The article notes a style shift in the market, with a general decline influenced by overseas factors, while certain sectors like finance and small-cap stocks have shown resilience [31][33]. - The Hong Kong stock market is more affected by overseas influences, and there have been recommendations to increase positions in insurance and Hong Kong dividend stocks during corrections [34][39]. - The article emphasizes that despite internal style rotations, the overall index is still on a slow upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs [43][44]. Group 4 - Recent economic data shows a decline in M1 and M2 growth rates, with M1 decreasing to 6.2% and M2 to 8.2%, indicating potential challenges in the stock market [53][59]. - Retail sales growth has slowed to 2.93%, suggesting a sluggish recovery in consumer spending, with restaurant revenues showing some improvement [62][66]. - Real estate investment has dropped by 14.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector, but the article suggests that funds from the real estate market may flow into the stock market [67][68]. Group 5 - The article mentions a rebound in soybean meal prices, with potential for further increases if supply issues arise towards the end of the year [69]. - It highlights the cyclical nature of the market, emphasizing that returns are not linear and that investors should be prepared for periods of volatility [71][73]. - The article advises against certain mindsets during bull markets, such as chasing highs or being overly sensitive to account fluctuations, suggesting a focus on long-term investment strategies [76][77].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Banks Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Banks - **Key Focus**: The current state and future outlook of China's bond market and banking sector Core Insights and Arguments 1. **China Government Bond (CGB) Yields**: - CGB yields have fluctuated significantly, starting at 1.59% at the beginning of the year, peaking at 1.92% in late September, and stabilizing around 1.65% in Q2 [2][3] - The expert anticipates a range of 1.6-2.0% for the 10-year CGB yield in the foreseeable future, with a likelihood of a flattening yield curve [2][3] 2. **Market Expectations on Policy Rates**: - There is a low market expectation for future policy rate or reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, with the current 7-day OMO rate at 1.40% [3][7] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has restarted CGB purchases to maintain liquidity and stabilize the bond market [3] 3. **LGFV Bond Credit Spread**: - The credit spread for Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) has tightened to 40-60 basis points for AAA-rated bonds [4] - The expert believes the risk of default is low due to government support, although some small LGFVs in economically weak regions may still face risks [4] 4. **Banking Sector Dynamics**: - Banks are expected to continue their bond allocation needs, with trading becoming increasingly important as the market remains range-bound [5][7] - The expert notes a potential increase in trading and investment gains for banks in 2026, driven by a low base in 2025 [7] 5. **Valuation and Risk Assessment**: - Price targets for H-share and A-share China banks are derived from a three-stage dividend discount model and P/B to ROE valuation methodology, respectively [8] - Major risks identified for China banks include asset quality deterioration, capital adequacy issues, and pressure on profitability from declining interest rates [9] Additional Important Insights - **Impact of VAT Reinstatement**: The expert noted that the impact of VAT reinstatement has been fully reflected in the yield difference between on-the-run and off-the-run bonds [2] - **Trading Strategies**: With the bond market expected to remain stable, banks are likely to focus on actively trading higher coupon rate bonds issued in previous years to realize mark-to-market gains [5] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the current state and outlook of the China banking sector and bond market, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.

Group 1 - Bond traders are awaiting the release of key economic data that will strengthen market expectations for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts [2] - U.S. Treasury prices have seen their largest increase since 2020, driven by rate cut expectations [2] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown will lead to the release of delayed economic reports, including September employment data [2] Group 2 - During the government shutdown, the absence of official data made it difficult to assess economic trends, although private sector data indicated weakness [2] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate twice in September and October, ending a nine-month period of holding rates steady [2] - There is a risk of stronger-than-expected official data, which could lead policymakers to maintain interest rates at the December meeting [2] Group 3 - China’s two-year government bond yield is at 1.43%, while the ten-year yield is at 1.81% [7] - The U.S. two-year government bond yield has risen by 4 basis points to 3.62%, and the ten-year yield has increased by 3 basis points to 4.14% [7] Group 4 - Huaxia Happiness has received a notice regarding a pre-restructuring application from creditor Longcheng Construction, with significant uncertainty about the court's acceptance of the application [3] - Taihe Group announced a loan extension with Tianjin Bank, providing a guarantee for its subsidiary's obligations, with a maximum guarantee amount of 239 million yuan [3] - Poly Development has updated the status of its 15 billion yuan public bond project to "submitted for registration" [3]