报告预计，在今年1月大幅下滑后，全球石油供应将在2026年剩余时间强劲反弹，预计2026年，全球石 油需求增长85万桶/日，高于2025年的77万桶/日。非OECD经济体将贡献全部石油需求增量。石化原料 将占据2026年需求增幅的50%以上，而在2025年，这一比例仅为三分之一。报告认为，继2025年全球石 油产量增加近310万桶/日后，2026年全球石油产量将增长240万桶/日，达到1.086亿桶/日，由石油输出 国组织(欧佩克)和非欧佩克产油国组成的"欧佩克+"与"非欧佩克+"产油国各贡献半数增幅。报告预计 2026年全球原油加工量平均增长79万桶/日，达到8460万桶/日，增幅主要由非OECD成员国驱动。 与此同时，"欧佩克+"产油国重申了维持当前产量配额至今年3月底的计划。在此背景下，预计全球石油 供应量将在未来数月反弹。总体而言，今年全球石油供应预计增加240万桶/日，如果"欧佩克+"产油国 维持现行产量协议，"非欧佩克+"与"欧佩克+"产油国将各贡献50%的增幅。 国际能源署近日发布的2月国际石油市场报告显示，受地缘政治紧张局势升级、北美暴风雪与极端气 温，以及哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯和委内瑞拉石油出口 ...

国际能源署近日发布的2月国际石油市场报告显示，受地缘政治紧张局势升级、北美暴风雪与极端气 温，以及哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯和委内瑞拉石油出口萎缩等因素影响，1月全球石油供应环比下降120万 桶/日，至1.066亿桶/日。全球基准布伦特原油价格近日突破70美元/桶关口，创2025年9月以来新高。 报告显示，1月，伊朗与美国的地缘政治紧张加剧推高了油价。尽管2月初因缓解紧张局势的谈判取得进 展的消息传出，国际油价一度有所回落，但在美国政府建议船舶航行霍尔木兹海峡时避开伊朗水域后， 国际油价迅速掉头回升。近期美伊紧张局势升级，推动国际油价显著上涨，可见石油市场对地缘局势不 确定事态依然高度敏感。 多个产油国供应中断事件令现货原油市场收紧，也进一步推高了油价。1月俄罗斯石油供应大幅下降35 万桶/日，其主要客户在美国及欧盟扩大制裁的压力下，减少了俄油进口，特别是印度炼油厂加大力度 寻求替代供应，对俄油出口影响最大。1月印度俄油进口量已经降至110万桶/日，为2022年11月以来的 最低水平，也远低于2025年平均170万桶/日的水平。1月委内瑞拉原油产量环比下降21万桶/日，降至78 万桶/日，但市场预计，美国政府授权美国 ...

记者今天从国家发展改革委了解到，2月24日24时国内成品油零售调价将开启上调窗口。据国家发展改 革委价格监测中心监测，本轮成品油调价周期内（2月3日—2月23日）国际油价震荡上行。 2月24日24时起，国内汽、柴油零售限价每吨分别上调175元、170元。全国平均来看：92号汽油、95号 汽油、0号柴油分别上调0.14元、0.15元、0.14元。 央视财经记者给您算了笔账，用92号汽油加满50升油箱将多花7元。 本轮成品油调价周期国际油价震荡上行 国家发展改革委价格监测中心预计，地缘局势变化仍是加剧当前国际油价波动的主要因素。美伊局势面 临高度不确定性，美国持续从军事和外交两方面加大对伊朗施压，伊朗对中东局势表态强硬，并威胁可 能关闭霍尔木兹海峡，后期需密切关注美伊军事动向及谈判进程。然而，也需要看到，全球供应过剩的 基本面仍未发生改变，国际能源署在最新的月度报告中将2026年全球石油需求增长预期从93万桶/日下 调至85万桶/日，美国新一轮关税上调举措也将给全球经济增长和石油需求带来压力。 来源：央视财经 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Interest rates and exchange rates: Despite the unexpected month - on - month decline in US PPI data in April and the relatively high US Treasury yields in May, economic data on June 4 showed signs of slowdown in the US job market and service industry, increasing the uncertainty of interest rate cuts. China's fiscal policy has been significantly front - loaded, and banks have entered a "low - interest - rate era". The implementation of the policy of significantly reducing tariffs between China and the US has short - term boosted domestic risk appetite and increased the demand for RMB financial asset allocation [81]. - Commodities: In the short term, commodities are bearish under the impact of the trade war. However, considering the improvement in the cost side, China's petrochemical industry chain is complete and still has a cost - competitive advantage [81]. - Equities: Bullish on China's consumption recovery (towards cost - effectiveness) and self - controllable industrial chains [81]. - Trade and oil demand: It is expected that after the oil price reaches the bottom in the off - season of the second quarter, it is expected to recover, which is beneficial to targets with upstream resources, such as PetroChina and CNOOC [81]. - Offshore oil and gas exploration: It is expected that the offshore oilfield service industry will maintain stable capital expenditure, and China will continue to increase oil and gas reserves and production. Bullish on listed oilfield service companies with low valuations, large overseas market potential, and internationally advanced technology, such as Offshore Oil Engineering, China Oilfield Services, and Bohai Machinery Equipment [81]. - Refining and chemical integration: Bullish on targets with strong hydrocracking capabilities and integrated refining - PX - PTA industrial chains, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Tongkun Group [81]. - Cost - competitive advantage: The negative impact of ethane imports is expected to be repaired, which is beneficial to previously oversold domestic targets, such as Satellite Chemical and Wanhua Chemical, as well as natural - gas - related targets, such as ENN Energy and Jiufeng Energy [81]. Summary by Directory 1. Oil Price Review and Outlook - **Price judgment**: In May 2025, Brent crude oil was weakly traded, closing at around $63.9 per barrel at the end of the month. OPEC+ countries will increase production by an additional 411,000 barrels per day in June and July. The Fed continued to pause interest rate cuts in June 2025 as expected. The oil price has entered a short - term downward channel, and Brent crude oil may touch a low of $55 per barrel in the second quarter. In the long term, oil prices are greatly affected by the demand side. With the Fed resuming interest rate cuts later, the risk of oil price correction increases. It is expected that Brent crude oil will fluctuate between $55 - $80 per barrel in 2025 [3]. - **Supply and demand factors**: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June and July, and the production cut of 3.6 million barrels per day will be maintained until the end of 2026. US refinery processing volume improved in May compared with the previous month but was lower than the same period last year. China's crude oil consumption was sluggish, but imports improved. In April 2025, China's industrial crude oil processing decreased by 1.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.5% year - on - year [3]. - **Other factors**: As of May 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was about 4.41%. Economic data on June 4 showed signs of slowdown in the US job market and service industry, and the market increased bets on interest rate cuts. The US dollar was relatively weak in May. In April, the US CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. Geopolitical situations in the Middle East are expected to continue to deteriorate, and global trade frictions may escalate. The Yellowtail - grade crude oil in Guyana is expected to be launched in the third quarter [3]. 2. Commodities, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates - **Interest rates**: The Fed has gone through 13 complete interest - rate hike cycles since 1954. As of May 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was about 4.41%. The inversion of the yield curve between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries, which lasted from early July 2022 to the end of August 2024, has basically ended, but there was an inversion with 3 - month US Treasuries as of June 4, indicating a low market expectation of interest rate cuts [32][37]. - **Exchange rates**: In May, the US dollar index was volatile and remained weak, closing at 99.44, up 0.23% from the end of the previous month and down 5.07% from the same period last year. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar, closing at 7.20, up 1.01% from the end of the previous month and up 0.79% from the same period last year [38]. - **Inflation**: In April, the US CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The US PPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year and unexpectedly decreased month - on - month. The Fed is still very cautious about inflation risks [44]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain - **Profit margins**: In May, the international crude oil price declined, driving down the prices of industrial chain products and weakening the spreads. The spread of ethylene cracking from naphtha was $151 per ton, down $12 per ton month - on - month. The prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol increased month - on - month, and the average price of polyester filament increased month - on - month. The profit of the entire PX - PTA - polyester filament industrial chain was about $28 per ton, a significant month - on - month improvement [54]. - **Supply and demand**: As of the end of May, the average inventory of polyester filament sample enterprises was around 20 days, basically the same as at the end of the previous month. In May, the total supply of polyester filament was 3.25 million tons, up 0.7% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year. The average monthly capacity utilization rate was 90.6%, down 3.5 percentage points month - on - month and up 2.8 percentage points from the same period last year [64]. - **Exports**: In April 2025, China's polyester filament exports were 349,800 tons, up 5.59% from the previous month. From January to April 2025, the cumulative exports were 1.3405 million tons, up 6.99% from the same period last year. From January to April 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were generally stable, with textile exports continuing to grow and clothing exports still under pressure [69]. 4. Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - **Overall view**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, and crude oil may face pressure. - **Investment recommendations**: Bullish on companies with upstream resources, offshore oilfield service companies, refining and chemical integration companies, and companies with cost - competitive advantages [81].