首先，让我们回顾一下近期的油价走势。今年以来，国内油价历经七次下调，累计降幅高达405元/吨，使得国内多数地区的加油站，92号汽油重回"7元时 代"。有料财经所在的广东省广州市，中国石化加油站的92号汽油今日价格为7.13元/升，95号汽油为7.73元/升，0号柴油为6.46元/升。与年初相比，汽柴油 价格均有不同程度的下降，在一定程度上减轻了车主的用车成本。 | 地区 | 0号柴油价格 | 欢 | 92号汽油价格 | 求 | 95号汽油价格 | 欢 | 98号汽油价格 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 青海省 | 6.69 | 迎 | 7.07 | 北 | 7.58 | 迎 | 8.26 | | 西驱 | 7.31 | 关 | 8 | 关 | 8.46 | 关 | 9.43 | | 广西 | 6.82 | 注 | 7.18 | 注 | 7.75 | 注 | 9 | | 新疆 | 6.52 | 有 | 6.89 | 有 | 7.38 | 有 | 8.24 | | 宁夏 | 6.65 | 科 | 7.02 | 料 | 7.42 | 料 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term sentiment in the soybean market is cautious. With the market sentiment about to turn, there is an expectation of repairing the price difference between the domestic and foreign soybean markets. The short - term price of soybean meal futures has turned to a volatile state. The price of palm oil futures has stopped falling and rebounded as international oil prices have stabilized, and the positive industrial chain expectations also support the price. [6][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Opinions**: The short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly". The core logic is that the market is waiting for the progress of Sino - US negotiations, which will determine the market's risk pricing for the long - term. The short - term sentiment in the soybean market is cautious, and there is an expectation of repairing the price difference between the domestic and foreign soybean markets. Also, factors such as import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand affect it. [6][8] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Opinions**: The short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly". The core logic is that the spill - over effect of recent international oil price fluctuations on the oil market continues to appear. As international oil prices have stabilized, the price of palm oil futures, the most energy - related oil variety, has stopped falling and rebounded, and the positive industrial chain expectations also support it. Also, factors such as biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand affect it. [7][8][9] Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - period Opinions**: The short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly". The core logic includes factors such as US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic situation of weak reality and strong expectation in the soybean sector remains unchanged, with high volatility in short - term soybean futures prices. The overall performance of soybean meal and palm oil futures is expected to be weakly volatile both in the short - term and medium - term [5][6]. - Fluctuations in international oil prices have a continuous spill - over effect on the oil market, especially on palm oil futures, which experience intensified high - level volatility. However, the positive trend in the palm oil industry chain remains, providing support for palm oil prices [8]. 3) Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade relations are crucial for US soybean export prospects. The import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and备货 demand also affect soybean meal prices. Market sentiment turning weak leads to synchronized declines in domestic and foreign soybean futures prices, increasing the short - term volatility of soybean meal futures [5][7]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Fluctuations in international oil prices have a significant impact on palm oil futures. The positive trend in the palm oil industry chain, such as declining Indonesian inventories, strong Malaysian palm oil exports, and increased Indian imports, supports palm oil prices. However, short - term price fluctuations are intensified [8]. Soybean Oil (2601) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventories, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventories [7]. Palm (2601) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by its bio - diesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventories, and substitution demand [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent round of refined oil price adjustments in China will not take place due to insufficient price changes during the monitoring period, despite fluctuations in international oil prices [1]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - During the pricing cycle from July 29 to August 11, Brent crude oil futures initially rose from $70 per barrel to $73, before declining for six consecutive working days to around $66 [5]. - The increase in oil prices was influenced by expectations of improved economic activity following a trade agreement between the U.S. and EU, and potential easing of U.S.-China trade tensions [5]. - The subsequent decline in oil prices was attributed to supply pressures from OPEC+ announcing an increase in oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, and market expectations of a potential easing of Russian oil export restrictions [5]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Weak U.S. non-farm employment data for July, with only 73,000 new jobs added and an unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, raised concerns about economic activity and oil demand [5]. - The implementation of new tariffs by the U.S. on multiple countries starting August 7 has further fueled worries about a slowdown in global economic activity, negatively impacting oil demand [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) anticipates that OPEC+'s stance on increasing production and the ongoing global economic challenges will continue to exert downward pressure on international oil prices in the short term [5]. - Close attention is required regarding future U.S. tariff policies towards India and China, as these could further influence oil demand dynamics [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that domestic refined oil prices are experiencing a temporary adjustment after a series of increases, with gasoline and diesel prices expected to decrease by approximately 0.10 to 0.12 yuan per liter [1][3] - The recent international oil price fluctuations, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and OPEC production cuts, have led to a rare "three consecutive increases" in oil prices, with some regions seeing 95-octane gasoline prices exceed 8 yuan per liter [1][3] - The current round of price adjustments is supported by a -3.31% change rate in crude oil prices, allowing for a reduction of 130 yuan per ton, despite a slight increase in early July that reduced the expected drop by about 15 yuan per ton [3] Group 2 - The limited decrease in oil prices should be viewed with caution, as future price movements remain uncertain due to ongoing volatility in international oil prices, U.S. crude inventory data, and geopolitical factors [3][6] - Some regions, such as Guangdong and Guangxi, may see 95-octane gasoline prices return to the "7 yuan range," but consumers are advised to be rational about refueling, as the savings from the price drop are minimal [3][6] - The adjustment in refined oil prices reflects the normal response of the domestic pricing mechanism to international market dynamics, highlighting the complexity of global energy geopolitics and its impact on long-term oil price trends [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil prices in China have experienced their first "three consecutive increases" of the year, with gasoline and diesel prices raised by 235 yuan/ton and 225 yuan/ton respectively, leading to increased costs for consumers and logistics [1][3]. Price Adjustments - The latest price adjustments translate to an increase of 0.18 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.19 yuan for both 95-octane gasoline and 0 diesel [1]. - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92-octane gasoline will now cost an additional 9 yuan, while logistics costs for heavy trucks running 10,000 km per month will increase by approximately 337 yuan [1]. Market Trends - This adjustment marks the 13th price change in 2025 and the 6th increase this year, resulting in a pattern of "six increases, five decreases, and two suspensions" [3]. - The international oil market has shown volatility, with significant fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. oil inventory levels [3]. Future Price Predictions - Analysts predict a high likelihood of price reductions in the next round of adjustments, with expectations of a decrease of around 290 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel due to the recent drop in international oil prices [5][6]. - The next price adjustment window is set to open on July 15 at 24:00 [8]. Demand Outlook - Despite the potential for price reductions, domestic gasoline demand is expected to remain strong due to increased travel during the summer and higher air conditioning usage amid rising temperatures [7]. - Conversely, diesel demand may decline due to lower operational rates in downstream sectors influenced by high temperatures and rainy seasons [7].

Core Insights - WTI crude oil prices experienced a short-term increase of nearly $1, rising by 3.00% to $73.64 per barrel [1] Price Movement - The international oil prices are exhibiting significant volatility, with potential for substantial returns, indicating a market environment where gains could reach nearly tenfold in a single day [1]

Core Viewpoint - WTI crude oil futures surged over 13%, reaching $76.89 per barrel, marking the highest level since January 22 [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The significant increase in oil prices is attributed to military actions taken against Iran, specifically airstrikes targeting nuclear and military facilities [1] - The operation was named "Lion's Strength," indicating a strategic military initiative that may impact global oil supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 2: Price Volatility - The volatility in international oil prices suggests potential for substantial trading opportunities, with reports indicating that daily gains could reach nearly tenfold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The SC crude oil main contract has reached its daily limit, with an increase of 8.98%, priced at 535.2 yuan per barrel [1] Industry Summary - International oil prices are experiencing significant volatility, presenting opportunities for substantial returns, with potential gains of nearly ten times in a single day [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic oil prices have remained unchanged due to insufficient adjustment margins, with the latest price change occurring on April 30, 2025, resulting in a minor increase of 25 yuan/ton, which did not meet the adjustment threshold [1][3] Oil Price Adjustment Overview - The last oil price adjustment saw a significant drop in prices, with gasoline and diesel decreasing by 480 yuan and 465 yuan/ton respectively, translating to a reduction of approximately 0.38 to 0.42 yuan/liter [3] - From February to April 2025, oil prices experienced a cumulative decline of 835 yuan/ton, equating to a decrease of about 0.67 to 0.71 yuan/liter across various regions [3] International Oil Market Trends - As of the latest data, WTI crude oil has fallen to 58.29 USD/barrel, while Brent crude is at 61.29 USD/barrel, reflecting a significant downward trend in the oil market [3] - This week, WTI crude oil has seen a cumulative drop of 7.5%, and Brent crude has decreased by 6.85%, marking a decline of over 10% from the mid-April peak [3] Market Dynamics and Future Expectations - The oil market is currently characterized by mixed signals, with OPEC+ expected to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in June, while concerns about energy demand persist due to tariffs impacting manufacturing [5] - The upcoming oil price adjustment on May 19, 2025, is anticipated to reflect a negative change rate, with potential decreases in gasoline and diesel prices estimated between 150 to 200 yuan/ton [5][7] Regional Price Information - Current gasoline and diesel prices across various regions in China are provided, with Beijing's 92 gasoline priced at 7.10 yuan/liter and 0 diesel at 6.78 yuan/liter [8]