在潜在的上行因素方面，76.5%的受访者认为全球科技周期的持续上行（Tech Cycle）是新加坡经济增 长的主要推动力。此外，全球增长的韧性以及贸易紧张局势的缓解也被列为关键的上行风险。 该调查于2025年11月21日发出，共收到20位密切关注新加坡经济的经济学家和分析师的回复。 在通胀方面，受访经济学家对2025年全年的通胀预期保持稳定。调查显示，2025年整体通胀率的中位数 预测维持在0.9%，新加坡金管局核心通胀率预测维持在0.7%，均与9月份的调查结果持平。 展望2026年，受访者预计新加坡经济增速将放缓至2.3%。同时，通胀压力预计将有所回升，2026年整 体通胀率和核心通胀率的预测中位数分别为1.5%和1.3%。 关于经济前景面临的风险，地缘政治紧张局势（包括贸易紧张局势升级和战争）依然被视为最大的下行 风险，100%的受访者将其列为关注重点。此外，41.2%的受访者对人工智能（AI）泡沫破裂可能带来的 金融市场溢出效应表示担忧。 新华财经新加坡12月17日电 新加坡金融管理局（MAS）17日发布的最新经济学家调查报告显示，受访 经济学家和分析师大幅上调了对2025年新加坡经济增长的预期。调查显 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the Hong Kong stock market (港股) in 2024, highlighting a recovery trend in overall earnings growth with a 1.2% increase in revenue and a 9.8% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][3][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Earnings Growth**: The second half of 2024 saw a significant acceleration in earnings, with a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [1][6]. - **Key Sectors Driving Growth**: - The information technology sector benefited from breakthroughs in AI technology, with net profit growth of 77.4% in the software and services sub-sector and 76.4% in the technology hardware and equipment sub-sector [1][10]. - The financial sector, particularly the insurance industry, experienced a 70.8% increase in net profit, while diversified financial services saw a 20.5% growth [1][10]. - The healthcare sector, including pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and life sciences, improved profitability by nearly 20 percentage points [1][10]. - **Struggling Sectors**: The consumer sector showed weak growth, with significant declines in return on equity (ROE) for household and personal products, and food retail. The optional consumer retail sub-sector's profit growth decreased by 36 percentage points, while media and consumer services saw declines of approximately 18% and 19% respectively [1][11]. Financial Metrics - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE for Hong Kong stocks rose to 7% in 2024, up from 6.7% in the first half of the year, but still below the average of around 10% since 2016. The DuPont analysis indicated that the increase in asset turnover was the primary driver of the ROE improvement [1][7][8]. - **Revenue Trends**: The revenue growth rate for Hong Kong stocks showed signs of bottoming out, with a 1.2% increase for the year, slightly down from 1.9% in the first half of 2024 [1][5]. Comparative Analysis - **Performance vs. A-shares**: The earnings recovery speed of Hong Kong stocks is superior to that of A-shares, which reported negative growth rates of -0.2% for the year and -0.5% for the first half of 2025 in terms of revenue and -2.7% for both periods in net profit [4][6]. Future Outlook - **Support Factors for 2025**: The global technology cycle is expected to rebound, with the AI-driven industrial revolution continuing to support the performance of the information technology sector. Additionally, macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are anticipated to benefit mainland companies, which constitute over 60% of the market [4][12].